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cr7torossi
30 Jul 2007, 12:45 PM
Sunderland

Odds on championship: 2,000-1.
Odds on relegation: 100-30
Manager: Roy Keane (since August 2006). Odds on first out the job: 20-1

Last season: Championship first, 88 points; FA Cup third round; Carling Cup first round

In: Michael Chopra (Cardiff, £5m); Kieran Richardson (Manchester United, £6m); Dickson Etuhu (Norwich, £1.5m); Greg Halford (Reading, £2.5m); Russell Anderson (Aberdeen, £1m); Paul McShane (West Brom, £2.5m)
Out: Stephen Elliott (Wolves, undisclosed); Tommy Miller (Ispwich, free); Kenny Cunningham, William Mocquet (released); Jonny Evans, Danny Simpson (both Man Utd, end of loan)



To state the blindingly obvious, managers are key figures at every club. Still, there are few more central to their team's chances than Roy Keane. Steve Coppell, perhaps, but football's most famous dog lover could give the Reading boss a run for his money. Last August, eyebrows were rupturing ceiling panels at the news of his appointment by Niall Quinn, but everything that has happened since has proved the sceptics (present company included) wrong.

It is hard to know what is most frightening about Roy Keane (and his dogs), but there is a case that it's the eyes (of the master, not the canines). I can never tell who he is looking at when he's interviewed, but I'm glad it's not me. In John le Carre's Tinker, Taylor, Soldier, Spy there is an espionage double act described as "the iron first in the iron glove". That is Keane, all by himself. Who would dare draw, let alone lose, heaven forbid get relegated, if you had to face that stare in the dressing room?

Yet if you strip away the RK factor, Sunderland's squad does not look like one to trouble the top half. And if you can't trouble the top half then you're in trouble yourself.

Keane has tried to strengthen the squad and the board have put their faith in the manager. The problem is that having money doesn't mean you can spend it.

First there is location, location, location. Sunderland fans may want to rip my heart out for the comparison, but Kieron Dyer's reported desire to leave Newcastle for the south as his family are still in Ipswich illustrates the problem for clubs on a geographical limb.

Second, the new TV deal and the arrival of assorted foreign gazillionaires means that the Premiership is awash with cash, devaluing money. Niall Quinn has been faced with some eyewatering wage demands that he doesn't feel able to match. Third, though some players will chase an extra few grand as if the world depended on it, plenty realise that one of the luxuries of being rich beyond your ability to spend is that you don't have to.

In all these circumstances, even offering over the odds is no guarantee of success. Sunderland are far from alone in facing some of these problems and repetition of these points will be limited in future previews. But some apply most strongly to the Wearsiders.

Yet perhaps I've looked into those eyes for too long and am about to order the cheapest items on the menu, because I think Keane will lead Sunderland to safety. I even think that his most notorious buy will prove a success.

Kieran Richardson has been widely mocked - and on the basis of some of his performances for Manchester United, that's no surprise. I am sure Sir Alex was pleasantly pleased with the £6m he picked up. But at last Richardson is going to know that he is playing as a first choice. He also knows that if he doesn't succeed now then the next stop is the Championship.

Keane's other big buy is Michael Chopra. Signing a former Newcastle player is creating another hostage to fortune, but if he and Richardson can make a success of it then the January window may prove less frustrating.

Russell Anderson was a key player for Aberdeen last season and perhaps Keane has hit upon a bright idea there, shopping in even more geographically challenged areas. He has also picked up Paul McShane from West Brom - players whose team missed out narrowly on promotion may also be good bets to plunder and those who have not secured a move elsewhere may be more willing to consider Sunderland the closer the transfer deadline comes.

Richardson and Keane will make an early return to Old Trafford, on 1 September. The fixture list has handed Sunderland a mixture of the daunting and the significant. Spurs and Liverpool travel to the Stadium of Light, while they visit Birmingham and Wigan - how much does Keane wish the venues for those four matches could be reversed?

But no-one will welcome a trip to Wearside in the opening weeks, and possibly not at all. Keane will duck no challenge and whatever happens in August I expect to be anticipating his team's second season in the Premier League this time next year. If so, then a charismatic manager building a reputation for success in front of a heaving stadium will seem more attractive to transfer targets.

Opening matches: 11 Aug, Spurs (h); 14 Aug, Birmingham (a); 18 Aug, Wigan (a); 25 Aug, Liverpool (h); 1 Sept, Man Utd (a)


For those who don't know about it, there was a 5-year plan when the Drumaville(sp) consortium bought Sunderland. And according to the initial plan, they were supposed to get promoted in their second year. So, they have been ahead of plan but it also makes survival so much more crucial because if they go down(again!), they would not only be one year behind but also the damage done to the image of the club would be irrepairable, atleast during the proposed 5-year time(Keano and Quinny have already experienced how difficult it is to convince players to come to a club with a yo-yo reputation and a poor location). This is IMO, the big reason why they are willing to spend, and spend big this season.

I think the point about the fixtures being reversed is very true. Recent history has shown that it is absolutely essential for a promoted team to have a good start if they have to avoid relegation. But, that's where Sunderland might struggle. Their team is desperately short of premiership quality right now and even if he does buy some quality players now, it will be difficult to gel them into a well-drilled unit for the early part of the season.

As for their signings, most of them seem to be good Championship players but IMO have big question marks on whether they can step up.
Their defence is dodgy, Anderson though unspectatular would give his best every time, McShane and Nos(which might be their starting CB pairing as per DS) would be quite good in the air but is still very unconvincing on the whole. Upfront too, you have to wonder where the goals are going to come from. Their star player last season was Edwards, but will Halford provide the same support as Simpson?

Too many question marks, but the good thing going for Keano is that the consortium is going to support him in the transfer market and there are quite a few teams comparable in quality right now.

cr7torossi
31 Jul 2007, 08:38 AM
Birmingham

Odds on championship: 5,000-1.
Odds on relegation: Evens
Manager: Steve Bruce (http://www.football365.com/story/0,17033,12994_2627523,00.html#) (since December 2001).
Odds on first out the job: 5-1

Last season: Championship second, 86 points; FA Cup fourth round; Carling Cup fourth round

In: Stuart Parnaby (Middlesbrough, free); Garry O'Connor (Lokomotiv Moscow, £2.6m); Olivier Kapo (Juventus, £3m); Daniel De Ridder (Celta Vigo, free); Hossam Ghaly (Tottenham Hotspurs, £3m); Richard Kingston
Out: Julian Gray (Coventry, free); Stephen Clemence (Leicester, £1m); DJ Campbell (Leicester, £2.1m); Bruno N'Gotty (Leicester, free); Rafael Schmitz (Lille, loan)



Most of the time the theme tune to 'The Great Escape' is used for a team that survives against the odds. But it would make an appropriate ringtone for Steve Bruce on personal grounds.

In 2006 he took down a Birmingham squad that had been widely regarded as their strongest in years. He started badly in the Championship and the lovable crew in charge at St Andrew's were publicly discussing his future. Still, here he is, back for more.

I'll stick my neck out and say his will not survive another relegation. Reluctance/refusal to buy Chinese to placate new shareholder Carston Yeung won't endear him to his bosses either.

When it comes to coping with promotion, Bruce has been here before, finally ending City's sequences of near-misses in 2002 and he will hope that the groove they settle into is the one of earlier in the decade, when Blues finished 13th, 10th and 12th.

The reinforcements are largely unproven at this level or in this country. Garry O'Connor, the Scot who scored the winner for Lokomotiv Moscow in the Russian Cup final in May, has had a strange career path. Olivier Kapo, the French attacking player signed from Juventus, is just as interesting, someone of unfulfilled potential who could have the skills and the drive to make a go of it now. Stuart Parnaby is less exciting.

One of the biggest question marks about Birmingham is how you spell the name of their new Ghanaian keeper. His first name is Richard and his brother is registered as Laryea Kingston. Yet it seems Richard is called 'Kingson'. It seems plausible that a spelling mistake on an official form on one occasion has led to endless confusion. But beyond the orthographical confusion, Richard, Maik (Taylor) and Colin (Doyle) make as fine a trio of stoppers as you'll find outside the Champions League teams.

There have been wholesale departures since relegation. The Taylors, Maik and Martin, are rare survivors. It was a surprise to see Stephen Clemence - the club's player of the season - moved on to Leicester this summer, DJ Campbell less so.

Bruce's survival last season will be a reminder to him of the possibility of reversing early-season form, but once the opening weekend is out of the way he will be aware that the fixture list has presented a chance for a solid start that he surely must take. A trip to Stamford Bridge is often unpleasant as well as expensive, but games against both the sides that came up alongside City and matches against Middlesbrough and West Ham follow. Chelsea aside, that is close to a hand-picked start for most clubs.

However, defeat to Sunderland and Derby would represent grievous blows. A lot is riding on these first few weeks and Bruce could find himself back in as much trouble as he was a year ago. Perhaps the new signings will make all the difference, but I'm betting against it. Bruce will be able to feel the board breathing down his neck with each defeat and that's no recipe for success.

Opening matches: 12 Aug, Chelsea (a); 14 Aug, Sunderland (h); 18 Aug, West Ham (h); 25 Aug, Derby (a); 1 Sept, Middlesbrough (a)


I generally believe that going for quality over quantity is not the way forward for a promoted team, but Brucey, keeping their last season in the top flight in mind, has gone for the latter. IMO, the signings are from average(Kapo, Ghaly) to poor(Parnaby, De Ridder).

The midfield looks good, but they depended on goals from Bendtner(in the early part of the season, now gone back to Arsenal) and McSheffrey(IMO not PQ) for getting promoted, also their defence like Sunderland's seems to be too suspect for the top flight.

Three of the first 5 games are against teams who would be fighting out in the wrong end of the table, that might decide how their whole season pans out.

cr7torossi
31 Jul 2007, 12:26 PM
Derby

Odds on championship: 7,500-1.
Odds on relegation: 1-2
Manager: Billy Davies (since June 2006).
Odds on first out the job: 8-1

Last season: Championship third, 84 points, play-off winners; FA Cup fifth round; Carling Cup second round

In: Robert Earnshaw (Norwich, £3.5m), Claude Davis (Sheff Utd, £3m), Tyrone Mears (West Ham, £1m), Andy Todd (Blackburn, free); Ben Hinchcliffe (Preston, undisc)
Out: Paul Peschisolido (Luton, free), Lee Grant (Sheff Wed, free), Ryan Smith (Millwall, £150,000), Paul Boertien, Steven Cann, Morten Bisgaard, Lionel Ainsworth, Seth Johnson (all released)



When Derby reached the play-offs in May, it was noted at length that Billy Davies had been in the semis the year before with Preston and was going to use that experience to help him negotiate them successfully this time around. What was reported an awful lot less was how Derby, not Davies, had got on in 2005-06.

Under the management of Phil Brown, the Rams finished 20th. Since relegation in 2002, their finishes have been 18th, 20th, fourth, 20th - then third, and up. Davies may be only 8-1 to be first to lose his job, but in a sane world the directors owe him a season and a chance back in the Championship, if that is what it comes to. He was making up a team as he went along - only six players started more than 30 games, 18 started more than ten, and it all ended with that goal from Stephen Pearson (six league starts since joining in January) at Wembley.

That gave Premiership chances to players such as Giles Barnes - not 19 until 4 August but with nine goals in 58 games from midfield. He is the future of Derby...if they can hold on to him. Other players need to take an opportunity that has been a long time coming: Steven Howard, a £1m signing from Luton last summer, hit 16 goals in 43 games to arrive in the top flight aged 31.

But it's something of a tradition now - the email from the bookmakers naming the freshly crowned play-off winners as the favourites for relegation from the Premiership, sent just as the champagne is being popped. Yet as Derby return to the top flight after five topsy-turvy years in the second tier, I sense a certain hesitation. Not confidence in the Rams, but lack of faith in the teams that survived in May.

Fulham and Wigan stayed up with fewer than 40 points; West Ham were mighty fortunate to reach that total; Man City, Middlesbrough and Newcastle endured runs of relegation form; and in the view of some, Bolton minus Sam Allardyce look half the team they were, and not just side on.

Many of those clubs have made significant changes, but if Davies sits down and plays the game of "three teams we can finish above" then he will be able to find enough candidates to convince the dressing room that this is not Mission: Impossible.

But for some remarkable luck for Birmingham - such as their win against Wolves, who led 2-1 and should then have had a penalty, before then having a spot-kick saved in stoppage time as City won 3-2 - Derby might not have needed the play-offs. Their 84 points was the best for a play-off winner since Bolton in 2001 and they beat the curse of just missing out on automatic promotion to negotiate the play-offs. All that after finishing 20th the year before.

That brings up the comparison Derby won't want made: with Watford, who went from 18th to 3rd in a year - and to 20th in the Premiership last season. You can certainly argue that Davies has done too much too soon so Derby will go down. But I think that they will survive provided that the board give him and the team the confidence to fail, to take the pressure off the Scot.

Davies has tried to strengthen this summer. Robert Earnshaw scored 11 times in West Brom's miraculous escape in 2004-05, but just one Premiership goal in the first half of the next season led to his being sold to Norwich.

Claude Davis has experience of a relegation battle and very nearly helped Sheffield United to a surprise escape. Andy Todd's experience in the top flight is greater but he has always had a temper - something to which former team-mates as well as opponents can testify.

The fixture scheduler has produced a so-so opening, with two games against top-five sides before the international break, another two games against sides that the bookies place in the middle of the pack - and a must-win match against Birmingham.

It's a fair test of Derby's strength. More than six points will be a cause for celebration; three or fewer and it will be crucial that Davies does not let his team's heads drops. If he can make a fight of it at least then his job should be safe - and letting him know that could make all the difference.

Opening matches: 11 Aug, Portsmouth (h); 15 Aug, Man City (a); 18 Aug, Spurs (a); 25 Aug, Birmingham (h); 1 Sept, Liverpool (a)

I don't think I know enough of them to make a fair assessment of their prospects but given the team that they have now, I think they are depending a lot on another Billy Davies miracle.