MLS:Week 17

[Wizardscharter]

Tough slate of games to call this week

Thu:New York 1.95 l 3.35 l 4.00 Chivas
On the surface this looks to be an easy call as NY is at home and Chivas simply can't win away. Three things here. One Jef Parke is out for a few games with a hammy. JP Angel and Jozy Altidore will be back up top for NY (Angel missle last week for the AS Game). Lastly, this isn't your normal Chivas team - only referees have beaten them of late, and 4.00 on a competitive team playing well facing a team down a defender and a GK makes it worth considering. Angel scores fully half the shots he gets on net, should he get two, Chivas is playing for a draw.
NY@1.95

Sat: Salt Lake 3.40 l 3.25 l 2.40 NE
OK, this one isn't as tough. RSL is winless in forever anywhere. NE has difficulty traveling to altitude, but this is RSL, who has Adu and not much else.
NE@2.40

Sun: Toronto 2.15 l 3.26 l 3.50 Chicago
Another tough one. Normally I like TOR at home to point no matter the opposition. CHI is winless in forever away and have generally been stinking up the joint. But they now have Chuatemoc Blanco and they drew a friendly midweek. TOR on the other hand comes of a 4-2 loss to Aston Vila midweek that also continued an injury streak for them. That being: Dichio-back, Wynne-hammy, Sutton-Concussion, Cunningham-abs. Dichio might play, Wynne has said the hammy is nothing, the rest are out. So you have TOR short but home and CHI reinforced and away. As Dichio isn't Dichio unless he can body up, I like CHI at the inflated number. Draw has merit here due to the wishy-washy circumstances and unknowns.
CHI@3.5

Sun: Kansas City 2.00 l 3.35 l 3.75 Chivas
A look at Chivas' history at Arrowhead says clearly, "Take KC". EJ has 12 goals in 11 games and seems to be the only Wizard capable of finishing a sentence and Chivas is quality on defense having the second best MLS D behind ridiculous Houston - who is on a record low pace for GAA. Chivas will also play this game on one day rest coming from a cross-country trip to NY. NY to KC isn't a short flight either. KC will again be sparsely attended on yet another Sunday - the third in a row. Chivas will have abundant fans and it may seem like a home game for Chivas. KC's defending has been borderline criminal. KC has received every bad break possible of late and is still getting draws. Chivas will get a soft goal somewhere. KC will need 3 to guarantee a win, I would think.

What CHV does have is the quality defense, and a certain coach, Preki, that will have some quality scouting on how to break down KC. Razov has a history of chushing KC, absolutly crushing them regardless of venue. Both Razov and Galindo are way overdue to go nuts. Guzan is quality in net.

It's a tired weary defense vs an offense that has one gear. If CHV plays straight up and does not foul much KC will win by blowout. If CHV does what every other team does and hacks at will, KC still hasn't figured out how to deal with it and draw or 0-1 is likely.

Preki wasn't a hack as a player although he believes in retrobution. CHV is middle table on fouls, but does take silly cautions when they do foul...both good for KC.

Recently DAL and NY have won away games on one day rest where the Sun game was the second or third roadie in a row. MLS averages have that as being a 15% win rate or lower for the tired visitor. At some point the average must hold. For that main reason and EJ wearing blue...
KC@2.0

[Wizardscharter]

First, let me say thanks to everyone that lurks in this space. Responses are good if you have an opinion, any opinion, but the number of views at least says some look in week to week, thanks for that.

Also, if it seems at times that the re-hash is a pat on the back session, my appologies. The benefit I get from it is mostly that things stick differently if I see them in print rather than just think it. Hope it helps someone else in whatever way.

-WC

Postmortem:

CHV 2:0 @NY
I spent a good deal of space praising Chivas' play of late and then bet against them vs a struggling team with line-up problems. Oops. Blame it on brainlock. 20/20 hindsight. Either way, a credible road win by a pretty sound team.

NY is troubling. A nice roster, a lethal scorer in Angel, sound backup GK for an injured Waterrus, and some coach named Bruce. 2 wins in 9 games doesn't make any sense to me. I can't explain it. Dropped from runaway Champions elect to hanging onto the back wheels of the frontrunners. Another different lineup and formation last week to poor effect. All you can do is leave them alone until something says otherwise. Certainly they can win any game they are in so betting against without a price incentive isn't sound either.

NE 2:1 @RSL
NE stomped all over RSL although the score was close. Better finishing by NE wasn't available this night. We'll blame it on altitude. Having played at altitudes well above Denver occasionally but in the lowlands normally, balls don't act exactly like your muscles tell you they should. Sometimes that takes longer to adjust than one short game allows. Someone with more time should take a look at that to see if that idea holds any merit mathematically.

NE still wins, no shock. RSL now has a roster of very speedy guys who unfortunately play like the very young guys they actually are. NE simply look like Champions who can get points with the "B" game.

CHI 3:0 TOR
TOR had nobody show up. Too short of a roster with too many injuries. Nice price on CHI made for an easy decision that worked out this time. Separately, CHI looks serious suddenly. Calen Carr might not go for 1 and 1 against everyone, but he can certainly do it against future A-leaguers. Looking forward, CHI is clearly improved and will eventually get Mapp and others back. That should be scary for East foes late. We'll see what they look like against a strong CLB squad next week.

As for TOR, I read that Mo Johnston came out today and challenged his decimated team to at least act like professionals. Scaring the young replacements might be all he can do until guys come back fit. Half a Dichio ain't enough. (I debated typing that for a bit...:)) They host LA on Sunday. Start the Becks watch.

CHV 2:3 KC

Chivas was in this game the whole way and was better than KC in the first half. KC scored on an all-world unstoppable blast from Zavagnin (his second of the unbelievable long-distance class), a low curling free that everyone missed including a frozen-by-Conrad's-central-run Guzan, and the cruelest of late defelections by Movsysian off of Shavar Thomas' slight toe touch. Thats 3 against, all inside the last square foot available, and none of them do much to tarnish what is normally a high quality defense. The important point for betting turned out to be CHV made many mental lapses down the stretch. CHV allowed too many frees that seem to turn into late point-stealing goals when teams run the Thursday-Sunday road gauntlet.

CHV has two more road games to go on this 4 game road swing before returning home. Points come much harder after road game #2.

KC has some issues, but scoring certainly isn't one of them. Anyone on their roster can put it in at almost any time, and this without Scott Sealy and with an increasingly dissapointing Marinelli. Good to see KC get a break or two, that needs to continue for all to be "even" in that department on the season. A bet on KC might make sense, but I wouldn't bet on further breaks coming.

Another point would be KC Head Coach Curt Onolfo. In spite of the worrisome 1.78 GAA for the season, he continues to make interesting and mostly effective adjustments in games including switching free takers if ineffective, attacking substitutions that result in goals (sometimes against), and he puts out lineups that favor what neutral fans crave. Too bad the nation doesn't get to see it often. If you have a friend open to covering eachother's bets, let him pick the result in KC games and take the OVER for yourself. You'll win one most weeks and stand a good chance at a sweep no matter who he picks.

The next two for KC are @NE and home to NE. KC will be the underdog at Gillette and maybe at home for this series that will not decide the East, but has the possibility of eliminating KC.

[Magpie Maniac]

First, let me say thanks to everyone that lurks in this space. Responses are good if you have an opinion, any opinion, but the number of views at least says some look in week to week, thanks for that.

Your posts are very much appreciated and are first rate. I was carrying the water last season in this forum and it's quite nice to get a chance to read another (more comprehensive) prospective on the matches. Thanks.

I'll comment on your picks in more detail ASAP, but I have a sick child and I need to hit the sack since I have to stay home with her tomorrow.