U20 World Cups are good predictors of future FIFA World Cups

[thomash0831]

Kids that participate in u20 world cups are usually 18-20 years old. Five years later they are 23-25 yrs old... near the prime of their careers.

The stars of the teams that participated in the 2001 u20 world cup were on the rosters of teams in the 2006 FIFA world cup in Germany.
In the 2001 u20 world cup sixteen teams qualified for the second round. Out of those sixteen only two failed to qualify for the 2006 fifa world cup. This is pretty incredible when you consider that teams must qualify for the u20 world cup, and there were only twenty-four teams total.
Out of the eight remaining in the quarterfinals, six of those eight also qualified for the second round of the 2006 world cup.

In the 1997 u20 world cup (5 years before the 2002 fifa world cup) six out of the eight quarterfinalists also qualified for the second round in the 02 fifa world cup.


Interestingly enough the 2001 USA u20 team featured Landon Donovan, Gooch, Convey, and Beasley in the starting lineup (all starters on 2006 team). This team lost to China and Egypt, and tied Ukraine. Two of those teams missed out on the 2006 world cup. The USA underperformed in the 2006 world cup...



However, the USA team had a turnaround starting in 2003. In 03 they lost in overtime in the quarters to Argentina, in '05 they finished top of their group ahead of Argentina and Germany (they beat Argentina and tied Germany) and in 07 they lost in overtime in the quarterfinals. Look for another USA run in 2010.

With regard to some other teams, Ghana came out of nowhere in the 2001 u20 world cup with some guy named Essien as their star. They played an Argentine team in a final that featured ten 2006 world cup starters (seven for Ghana, three for Argentina... although Coloccini was suspended). Many people thought Argentina and Ghana were two of the biggest surprises of the 2006 world cup.
Australia, Ecuador, Ukraine and Paraguay all qualified for the second round of the 2001 u20 world cup... and they repeated this success in the 2006 world cup.


We should look to the 2005 u20 world cup as a predictor of 2010. Interestingly enough, although Argentina won again, both Nigeria and Morocco qualified for the semi-finals. With the 2010 world cup in Africa, this would be the right time for an African team to make a late run in the tournament.
Another team of note is Colombia. The team has underperformed on the national level for the better part of a decade, however in the 2005 u20 world cup they beat Italy and won all of their group games, and they finished in 3rd place in the 2003 u20 world cup. Interesting to see if they can turn things around and qualify for the 2010 world cup.


Anyway, let me know what yall think.
Thomas

[midknight]

Kids that participate in u20 world cups are usually 18-20 years old. Five years later they are 23-25 yrs old... near the prime of their careers.

The stars of the teams that participated in the 2001 u20 world cup were on the rosters of teams in the 2006 FIFA world cup in Germany.
In the 2001 u20 world cup sixteen teams qualified for the second round. Out of those sixteen only two failed to qualify for the 2006 fifa world cup. This is pretty incredible when you consider that teams must qualify for the u20 world cup, and there were only twenty-four teams total.
Out of the eight remaining in the quarterfinals, six of those eight also qualified for the second round of the 2006 world cup.

In the 1997 u20 world cup (5 years before the 2002 fifa world cup) six out of the eight quarterfinalists also qualified for the second round in the 02 fifa world cup.


Interestingly enough the 2001 USA u20 team featured Landon Donovan, Gooch, Convey, and Beasley in the starting lineup (all starters on 2006 team). This team lost to China and Egypt, and tied Ukraine. Two of those teams missed out on the 2006 world cup. The USA underperformed in the 2006 world cup...



However, the USA team had a turnaround starting in 2003. In 03 they lost in overtime in the quarters to Argentina, in '05 they finished top of their group ahead of Argentina and Germany (they beat Argentina and tied Germany) and in 07 they lost in overtime in the quarterfinals. Look for another USA run in 2010.

With regard to some other teams, Ghana came out of nowhere in the 2001 u20 world cup with some guy named Essien as their star. They played an Argentine team in a final that featured ten 2006 world cup starters (seven for Ghana, three for Argentina... although Coloccini was suspended). Many people thought Argentina and Ghana were two of the biggest surprises of the 2006 world cup.
Australia, Ecuador, Ukraine and Paraguay all qualified for the second round of the 2001 u20 world cup... and they repeated this success in the 2006 world cup.


We should look to the 2005 u20 world cup as a predictor of 2010. Interestingly enough, although Argentina won again, both Nigeria and Morocco qualified for the semi-finals. With the 2010 world cup in Africa, this would be the right time for an African team to make a late run in the tournament.
Another team of note is Colombia. The team has underperformed on the national level for the better part of a decade, however in the 2005 u20 world cup they beat Italy and won all of their group games, and they finished in 3rd place in the 2003 u20 world cup. Interesting to see if they can turn things around and qualify for the 2010 world cup.


Anyway, let me know what yall think.
Thomas

Several comments.

- This observation only really holds true since the WC was expanded to 32 -teams.

- Ghana didn't exactly come out of nowhere.Between 1991 and 1997, they won 2 Fifa u17cups, came 2nd and third in the other two. Essien was actually on the team that came third in 1999

- While it is true that a few select future NT stars go through these tournaments, the vast majorityof players selected for a WC by any team would never have played WC youth football

[vancity eagle]

I don't think that U-20 directly correlates with the WC. For instance African sides have done much better at youth level and have never replicated these type of results when the full WC takes place. You see it is not just that these youths will be in their prime in about 4 to 5 years. Success also depends on the integration between the young stars and veterans on a side who can help a team with valuable experience. Teams with too many veterans tend to fall apart, (ala the Czechs 2006). Teams with too many youngsters also tend to fail reaching it far in the WC (ala Holland 2006). A very successful side is usually a good mix of the two.
I think the Olympics in China will be a much better means of predicting how good teams will be come 2010, than the just finished U20 WC. But I guess these will pretty much be the U 20's from 2005. It will be noted that even looking at past olympic tournaments, Africas 2 victories in 1996 and 2000 still haven't produced a semi-finalist for the region. I would have to say that the Nigerian side of that generation has to be one of the worlds greatest underachievers over the past 2 decades.
Looking back at 2005 U20 WC. The winners Argentina are my personal favorite to win in 2010. Nigeria and Morocco both semifinalists have a strong possibility of not even qualifying for 2010. However should they qualify from Africa's terrible format, then they (Nigeria in particular) should be strong darkhorses for the tournament.

[jd6885]

If what you think is true, I think the bigger surprise in the upcoming world cup would be South Korea's meteoric rise to maybe the finals...but then again they did reach the semis once. But you could argue it was largely due to the home crowd and Hiddink's coaching.

[JuanRoman]

if this were true you would think argentina would have won a world cup considering their u-20 success from 95-2007. and i dont see how you could consider argentina a surprise in 06- if anything its surprising they lost to germany.

[leg_breaker]

Most players at under-20 level probably don't even end up as professionals.

[schmuckatelli]

Most players at under-20 level probably don't even end up as professionals.
This is an interesting argument... can you support it with evidence?

[Benedict XVI]

Most players at under-20 level probably don't even end up as professionals.
Most players at U-20 level already are professionals.

[leg_breaker]

Well, they may be professional, but not at the top level. You only have to look at the squads from ten years ago and see if you can actually recognise any of the names.

[Dr. Know]

Well, they may be professional, but not at the top level. You only have to look at the squads from ten years ago and see if you can actually recognise any of the names.

From the U-20 WC 1997 in Malaysia which Argentina won:

France : Henry, Trezeguet, Gallas, Anelka, Sagnol, Silvestre

Uruguay: Pablo Garcia, Zalayeta

Ghana: Appiah

Argentina: Riquelme, Scaloni, Aimar, Cambiasso, Samuel

England: Owen, Carragher

Ireland: Damien Duff

[thomash0831]

Most players at under-20 level probably don't even end up as professionals.


Two examples: Argentina and USA 2006 world cup teams featured 15 players apiece (incl. Cory Gibbs) that played on u20 world cup teams.
Spain had about a dozen. Other teams are more difficult to tell because many do not qualify for the u20 world cup every time (e.g. England has qualified 3/6 times since '95).