2010 Seeding Formula: July 2007 update

[scaryice]

The new FIFA rankings (http://fifa.com/worldfootball/ranking/lastranking/gender=m/fullranking.html#confederation=0&rank=159) are out for July.

Top 7 teams seeded

(South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)

Total WC FIFA
1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32
2 Germany 58.3 30.3 28
3 Italy 57.3 27.3 30
4 France 52.3 23.3 29
5 Argentina 52.0 21.0 31
6 Spain 49.3 25.3 24
7 England 47.3 26.3 21
7 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25

9 Mexico 42.3 19.3 23
10 Netherlands 41.7 14.7 27
11 Croatia 35.0 9.0 26
12 USA 32.7 13.7 19
13 Ukraine 32.2 16.7 15.5
14 Czech 28.0 6.0 22
15 Paraguay 23.7 11.7 12
16 Japan 21.3 13.3 8
17 Cameroon 21.0 3.0 18
18 Serbia 20.8 5.3 15.5
19 Ghana 20.3 13.3 7
20 Romania 20.0 0.0 20
21 Korea 17.7 15.7 2
22 Greece 17.0 0.0 17
23 Cote d'Ivoire 17.0 6.0 11
24 Uruguay 16.7 2.7 14
25 Australia 16.3 11.3 5
26 Nigeria 15.7 2.7 13
27 Costa Rica 12.3 8.3 4
28 Iran 11.3 5.3 6
29 Colombia 10.0 0.0 10
30 Morocco 9.0 0.0 9
31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1
32 Uzbekistan 3.0 0.0 3


England and Portugal are exactly tied for the last spot as of now. I dunno how a tie would be broken, but it's unlikely we would have one when the draw is made, and also I'm sure FIFA would alter the formula somehow so it couldn't happen, thus making speculating over tiebreakers pointless.

Mexico's jump shows that if they can stay in the top ten in the FIFA rankings, they have a decent shot at a seed. Still a longshot, but they're a more likely seed than the Netherlands. Sweden's ranking decreased this month and they are replaced by Serbia, the only change.

Thanks to eldiablito and Edgar for their work on this in previous months.

FAQ

Why is this list different than FIFA's Coca-Cola rankings?

Because Fifa's Coca-Cola rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

What is the seeding formula used for?

The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

What is the seeding formula exactly?

The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA rankings.

Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3
Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2007 rank+12/2008 rank+11/2009 rank)/3
Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years.

How is the world cup performance determined?

0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
The 16 teams that didn't make it out of the group stage are ranked (Points, GD, GF). The bottom 8 get 8 points each. The top 8 get 9 points each.

All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?

Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point. If two or more teams have the same FIFA ranking, the points are not divided among them. Instead, the one shown first in the FIFA rankings gets the most points and so on.

How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?

I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 13 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 13 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

13-UEFA
4.5-CONMEBOL
3.5-CONCACAF
5.0-AFC+OFC
6.0-CAF (5+host)

Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?

No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994.

Previous Editions

July 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=381517)
August 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=395930)
September 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=409535)
October 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=424957)
November 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=442892)
December 2006 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=454994)
June 2007 (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=551607)

[scaryice]

Mock Draw

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Greece, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Iran, Japan, Korea Republic, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Morocco, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay

Group A: South Africa, Romania, Iran, Colombia
Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Mexico, Paraguay
Group C: Brazil, Czech, Costa Rica, Nigeria
Group D: England, Croatia, Uzbekistan, Ghana
Group E: France, Portugal, Japan, Cameroon
Group F: Italy, Greece, South Korea, Uruguay
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Australia, Morocco
Group H: Germany, Serbia, USA, Cote d'Ivoire

South Africa and Italy automatically put in their groups. I picked England as a seed for this cuz they're more likely to get it in the end.

[VioletCrown]

Wow. And here I'd pretty much given up on a CONCACAF seeding of any kind. I now think it's almost too bad that the US won the Gold Cup. If Mexico had won it, they might have bridged that gap.

Then, they'd've gotten to play in the Confederations Cup, giving them another opportunity to beat Brazil.

I was thinking that the way the rankings are set up now, there was no way anyone in CONCACAF had even a remote chance. There's probably still no chance, seeing a there will be Euro qualifiers from now until December and CONCACAF has pretty much used up its stock of meaningful games. Both the US and Mexico will sink back down between now and December, the important cutoff date for setting 1/4 (?) of the seeding formula.

Ugh on the US draw. Shades of '98 and '06. We damn well ought to be able to take Serbia. I wouldn't feel that way if this were being held in Europe, but in Africa, we really should win that one. Then again, we felt that way about Ghana in Europe.

Finally, thanks, scary, for continuing these threads. Even though nearly everyone's lost interest in them for now, I'm sure you'll get attention once qualifiers begin next year.

[Gaetjens38]

The only way to really have a chance at moving up the charts is by having a really good performance at the World Cup itself. That's hard enough to do. CONCACAF teams lose out on the multiplier in the FIFA Rankings, but Mexico, because it reached the Round of 16 in each of the last two World Cups, has a larger base to work with. I think there's really no shot for the USA to get a seed for 2010 (unlike the 2006 World Cup, where the USA did have a chance, thanks to a the great run in '02).

[Jay510]

not that this has much to do with seeding, but its likely that Iraq will move up into a pot come august with their Asian cup run.