MLS: Week 16

[Wizardscharter]

Sun Games:
New England 2.40 l 3.25 l 2.90 Houston
Nobody has scored against Houston in about 2 months. NE is unbeaten in their last 4 home games, but only has 1 win. In situations where the price differential is less than .5 between home and road teams it's difficult to pick in absence of a compelling argument. I wouldn't put money on this one under any circumstances. If I had to pick, either siding with the home team or taking a punt on "draw" is sensible. Houston's last tough roadie was a draw in Dallas.
DRAW@3.25

Columbus 1.95 l 3.35 l 4.50 Toronto
So you take two divergent groups of professionals...one is a bunch of guys playing their sixth straight road game in a league where any game after the third one has a historical win rate of less than 10%...the other group had exactly zero representatives in Thursday's MLS All-Star game. Say what you will about groups, I know two things to be true. 1) Men have egos and will throttle the first opportunity they recieve to overcome a perceived slight. 2) Men are also human and humans will at times go through the motions when the end of any long series of things meets them. If you didn't already know, CLB was teh slighted team and TOR is the well traveled one. CLB has won their last 3 home games. Look for CLB to get the 3 points.
CLB@1.95

New York 2.50 l 3.25 l 3.00 Handball United
dc at 3.00 seems like an overprice. To me this one depends on Watterus' health. If he starts I like NY. If not, I have to take dc and the nice road price. As this is a rivalry game, this would not be my first choice game to bet. Also, NY has lost 4 of 6 coming in.
dc@3.0

Kansas City 1.80 l 3.50 l 5.00 Colorado
KC has looked like crap, being wholly unable to finish, without a fit EJ and Conrad. Both of them played long minutes in Denver Thurdsay. By contrast, Colorado has just looked like crap anywhere and everywhere lately going 0-6-2 in the last 8. Yuck. I don't make a habit of betting winnless in forever teams on the road. I like blowout for KC in this one as KC will create chances and find a way to finish. Harrington should have a nice game for KC.
KC@1.80

[Wizardscharter]

Rehash:

Hey! I lucked my wasy into hitting the draw. Hope you had some faith. I don't bet them normally, but this seemed a good spot. two great teams on positive runs. Blind squirrel finds the nut, go me! What an outstanding game to watch. High level play. Houston was outstanding before and now they have Ching and DeRo clicking for the first time this year? Wow!

That CLB won at home is no shock. CLB was dominant in every way. Tired opponents and they have the superior team. Scheletto's double the difference. He's not bad apparently. Prices will continue to shrink on CLB.

I mucked the dc game up. Bad call by me. On retrospect dc now has just one win in 5 games. NY isn't dominant, but even without Watterus and JP Angel, they still clearly had enough to beat what is a fairly poor road team in dc. Didn't do my homework here. Is there anything worse to watch than a dc road game? Shuffleboard from the Miami Oaks Retirement Village would be better. Indiferent stuff from Arena's guys.

On to the KC debacle. COL hasn't won away in forever. They haven't won anywhere in forever. COL does now have 3 ties in 4 games. How did COL win you might ask? COL kicked KC at every opportunity, cheap fouls over the back and late from behind, a clear late elbow from a soon to be suspended Balluchi to Victorine's throat with intent (he looked him in and Victorine was open and unsighted) and no ball in sight, late body work, cheap, dirty, jungle ball. No gameplan, just hack 'em...and it clearly worked. Ref saw and called little against COL and carded KC at every opportunity - although all were well earned, including the red and Conrad's needless push for the pk. Burciaga gets run for retaliation as Coundoul kicked him twice from the ground in a scramble in the box. Kicked him twice. JB blew up, jumped on the GK on the ground and derserved to get run. Coundoul only got the free kick out. Ridiculous.

COL did flat dominate the first :20. Then Arnaud steals a ball in deep, beats a virtual cone down the wing and finds EJ flying central 1-0 KC, totally against the run of play. The KC dominates the rest of the game except for injuries from thug hacks, the push from Jimmy where Hartman had a loose ball covered at the top of the box, and a converted corner out of nowhere on a leap covered header by Erpen (Erpen's only goal of the season, BTW).

KC gets little help from refs almost every game. Somehow KC always pays full price for every single error, many times deservedly so, like most calls tonight. Many yellows and a red. 3 guys injured. KC is a wreck with Chivas coming into KC for Preki's return.

Crap.

At this point, I'm complaining certainly, but going forward, KC is a completely indiciplined team that has an obviously high opinion of their ability with not enough reason for the opinion. They have 1 win in 8 games. One freaking win. Davy Arnaud had the ball on his foot tied 2-2 late with Condoul helpless, half a goal to hit, and no defenders in sight. Stumble. Indecision. Brick. No winner. Typical. Becoming standard. KC has dropped 4 points to lowly, no skill, hackers Colorado.

It's incomprehensible to me that KC has a guy with more goals than games played and they are 1-1-3 against the 4 bottom feeders of MLS. Colorado is not a good team.

[Wizardscharter]

Last thing I noticed earlier tonight: KC has more draws by far than any other team in MLS history. It isn't even close. Betting on KC is perilous for this reason and also because it seems like KC is mostly on the shorter end of calls over :90 minutes. I know how that sounds, but the evidence is right there for you if you have the PPV package.

It should be no shock that, again by far, KC the team I'm least profitable betting (about 7 units down since '02).

Also, if you are not keeping detailed records, even for theoretical bets, you should be. Over time, things like the above will become apparent to you.

[Linus Tulagi]

Last thing I noticed earlier tonight: KC has more draws by far than any other team in MLS history. It isn't even close. Betting on KC is perilous for this reason and also because it seems like KC is mostly on the shorter end of calls over :90 minutes. I know how that sounds, but the evidence is right there for you if you have the PPV package.

It should be no shock that, again by far, KC the team I'm least profitable betting (about 7 units down since '02).

Also, if you are not keeping detailed records, even for theoretical bets, you should be. Over time, things like the above will become apparent to you.

Like I said a couple of weeks ago, you're a homer.;) It's OK. Most people are.