Plunge in FIFA Rankings?

[Scotty]

So.

Are we going to drop?

How many places?

Does it really matter?

[Morpheus1271]

The new rankings are out. Check out the FIFA site.

www.fifa.com

[Parmigiano]

Seems we're now 9th from 10th. I guess Bruce Arena really is a genius.

[lurking]

IIRC the Fifa rankings only consider your best results over a time period. So while the confed cup wasnt good, they are just washed out. You can help your ranking, but its hard to hurt it in such a competition.

[voros]

Originally posted by Scotty
So.

Are we going to drop?

How many places?

Does it really matter?
It doesn't really work that way. First off, the results in your best seven matches in a year are MUCH more heavily weighted than your not so good results. That means is if a team is wildly inconsistent (great matches and horrible matches) they have an advantage over a more stable side (it also means that teams that play a lot of matches in a year have a big advantage as the bad results don't hurt as much). We're likely to play between 16-19 matches this year after 20 last year, so we have a lot of room for error.

What this means in a nutshell is that if we had gotten draws against Brazil and Turkey, it would not have mattered very much as those matches would not make our top 7 anyway. The only way the CC would have made a substantial difference is if we would have beaten somebody. If you can win 7 matches a year, the differences between losses and draws tend not to make much difference.

More importantly, what current results are competing against are our own past results. As time passes our results receive less and less weight and so our results at the confed cup are essentially replacing a great big mixtures of past results with the more distant results losing a greater proportion of their value. As an example at the end of the year our seasonal performances are weighted as such:

2003: 8/8
2002: 7/8
2001: 6/8
2000: 5/8
1999: 4/8
1998: 3/8
1997: 2/8
1996: 1/8

When the next pull comes out, what I believe is our highest points ever in a match will finally drop off the board after 8 years. On July 14, 1995 we beat Argentina 3-0 in the Copa America in Uruguay.

The good news is that I believe 2-0 against Mexico in Korea is our second highest and it's here for a while.

[roarksown1]

I can't imagine that losses against two teams that were ahead of us in the rankings will affect our ranking all that much. If anything, the rankings are there to more or less illustrate who should win any given match, in a manner of speaking. We move ahead if we beat teams ahead of us, but I'm guessing losing to them won't have much of an adverse effect.

[roarksown1]

Hey! I just checked these silly rankings and now they're not so silly anymore - the USA is finally ahead of Mexico! I do believe that this is the first time in history we've ever been ahead of our neighbors to the South. This calls for a Wednesday afternoon beer!

[Eric B]

Originally posted by roarksown1
I can't imagine that losses against two teams that were ahead of us in the rankings will affect our ranking all that much. If anything, the rankings are there to more or less illustrate who should win any given match, in a manner of speaking. We move ahead if we beat teams ahead of us, but I'm guessing losing to them won't have much of an adverse effect.

Not to mention that these were in the Confederations Cup, which also get muliplied by 1.75.

What could adversly effect us is having an absolute crap Gold Cup, like getting knocked out in the QF's. Three or four wins (especially against Brazil or Colombia) in that and we should be able to manintain our top ten position.

I guess the WC victories over Portugal and Mexico losing 1/8 of their value didn't adversly effect us too much, either.

[Bruce S]

we lost to 2 teams above us, that is why we didn't drop.

[Red Card]

Neither is perfect but I consider the ELO ratings to be equally as good as Fifa. Both are based on weighted mathematical formulas. In the ELO, Cameroon was ahead of the US, so the draw actually helped us in that system.

http://www.eloratings.net/

[voros]

Originally posted by Red Card
Neither is perfect but I consider the ELO ratings to be equally as good as Fifa. Both are based on weighted mathematical formulas. In the ELO, Cameroon was ahead of the US, so the draw actually helped us in that system.

http://www.eloratings.net/
I went through and gathered up what the ratings were for both FIFA and ELO before the World Cup and tested to see how well they did in preciting the outcomes of the 64 World Cup matches.

In both scores (goal difference in the game) and results (win, lose or draw) the FIFA rankings did significantly better, though not hugely so, than did the ELO rankings.

The biggest problem with the ELO rankings is that the swings after each game are just TOO huge and so teams go from 10th to 3rd to 15th after two freakin' games. There's also small biases in favor of European sides (FIFA has biases in favor of CONCACAF and ASIA) and biases against CONMEBOL sides.

Another problem with ELO is exemplified in Australia's grossly high rating. Essentially the big minus totals the US gets saddled with after one goal losses to Turkey and Brazil in what is really a minor tournament, Australia never has to face since they spend most of their time slapping around the Cook Islands in qualifiers and Oceania cup competitions. Granted they don't get any (many) points for these stampedes, but it's a game where they have little reason to worry about losing any points.

[Blong]

Wow. I never knew the Electric Light Orchestra was into ranking soccer. :)

[voros]

Originally posted by Blong
Wow. I never knew the Electric Light Orchestra was into ranking soccer. :)
What else have they had to do with themselves for the last 20 years? :)

[juventino3]

After our pathetic performance in the Cofeds Cup, it is hard enough to tell someone with a straight face that we are ranked 10th much less 9th.

[subbuteo]

who cares about the rankings? Unlike the BCS what you're ranked doesn't determine whether or not you get invited to the big party.

[mcontento]

Originally posted by juventino3
After our pathetic performance in the Cofeds Cup, it is hard enough to tell someone with a straight face that we are ranked 10th much less 9th.

Not really considering we narrowly lost to #1 #7 and tied #16.

[sregis]

Originally posted by mcontento
Not really considering we narrowly lost to #1 #7 and tied #16.

how does the margin of the loss consider in?

[Scotty]

Originally posted by Blong
Wow. I never knew the Electric Light Orchestra was into ranking soccer. :)

Yep. It's strange magic.

[CbR]

i wonder how we'll rank if our team was in europe

[mcontento]

Originally posted by sregis
how does the margin of the loss consider in?

It is a factor in their formula. for an explaination go here:

http://www.fifa.com/en/rank/procedures.html