MLS Week 13

[BerwynBlazers]

Colorado v Los Angeles
2.15 3.15 2.95

Ruiz suspended, LA is 0-5-4 with a gf of -6 on the road. Colorado is 2-2-2 at home with a +1 gf, only 6 goals allowed.

I'm thinking tie but I'm going to stay away from this one.

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by BerwynBlazers
Colorado v Los Angeles
2.15 3.15 2.95 Califf, Elliot, and Maestroeni all back for this one. No Ruiz. LA has difficulty scoring without El Flopidito.

[Justin O]

I don't know about Elliot, but Califf went 90 against Cameroon while Mastroeni didn't play. So I imagine Mastroeni will be in a much better position to contribut than Califf. Thinking of putting a little something on Colorado here.

[Wizardscharter]

Still licking the wounds of the 2-5 week last time out.

LA on the road have just been brutal. LA is minus Ruiz - which usually means they can't score. Colorado won the last home game v LA. Rapids will also have Meastroeni back, but they will miss Henderson on the wing. The only way LA takes points in this one is if Hartman is awesome.

Colorado has to feel this is a must win as they are the two worst teams in the West so far. 3 points would put COL up 6-3 in the series with the last game in LA. Anything less would vertually give the series to LA. We know that losing a season series to a team in your division makes it very difficult to finish ahead of them in the standings. So, it would almost doom COL to missing the playoffs, even this early in the season. Why is this important? Non-NBA Professional teams that are about to face a hopeless situation usually step up a degree or two to prevent it. I guarantee LA is not in this mindset yet, but Colorado should be. Talent differential can make this irrelivant. In this case, I don't believe LA's available lineup is that much better.
I'll take COL at home. Draw has a good price for this one, but I just can't do it.
COL@2.15

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

Here are some odds from Online Sportsbook. I was struck by how similar all the odds are, home team favored in every case. Also, they don't seem to have a handle on who is playing and when.

Wednesday, June 25
CHICAGO FIRE V METRO STARS Time: 21:30
Chicago Fire 2.10 Draw 3.20 Metro Stars 3.00


COLORADO RAPIDS V LOS ANGELES Time: 21:30
Colorado Rapids 2.10 Draw 3.10 Los Angeles 3.00


SAN JOSE V KANSAS CITY Time: 21:30
San Jose 2.00 Draw 3.20 Kansas City 3.20


Saturday, June 28
COLUMBUS CREW V D C UNITED Time: 16:00
Columbus Crew 1.80 Draw 3.30 D C United 3.75

[Justin O]

Market Average
Los Angeles vs Dallas 1.66 3.30 4.49
Columbus vs D.C.United 1.84 3.15 3.65
San Jose vs Kansas City 2.01 3.10 3.18
Chicago vs MetroStars 2.09 3.08 3.05
New England vs Colorado 1.59 3.41 5.14

Highest Prices
Los Angeles vs Dallas 1.83 3.75 5.75
Columbus vs D.C.United 2.10 3.35 4.15
San Jose vs Kansas City 2.20 3.25 3.50
Chicago vs MetroStars 2.15 3.20 3.60
New England vs Colorado 1.80 3.75 5.75

Initial thoughts...

Assuming Ruiz plays LA should handle Dallas. But is it really worth it at that price? (note: though they list 1.83 as the highest prices the highest I could verify was 1.70 with Sportwetten-Gera)

DC United are certainly tempting at a high price (again I can't verify higher than 3.90 at Pinnacle) having just beaten Columbus 3-0 not long ago and generally playing better than they were earlier in the year. Does kind of seem like Columbus are due to break out of their funk, however. I assume Martino will not play making DC more tempting. Will have to ponder further...

Kansas City are also tempting as they are almost every week for me. With Donovan back I'm a bit hestitant to bet against San Jose at home, though.

Chicago at 2.10 (the highest I could verify, offered at several sites) is the one pick I'm ready to make right now. Sure they got nailed last week, but at home I think they will handle the Metros, even with Mathis back. I love the Razov/Ralph combination and getting Beasley/Armas/Bocanegra back should help a lot, especially at home.

I certainly won't be taking New England at such a small price if Twellman isn't fit. I probably won't if he is fit either. I also can't take Colorado to win twice in one week (I already have them today). But who knows, if they really show something tonight, and it looks like Twellman won't play, then maybe I'll consider a small stake on Colorado at the big price.

Thoughts?

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by Justin O
[BLos Angeles vs Dallas 1.83 3.75 5.75
Columbus vs D.C.United 2.10 3.35 4.15
San Jose vs Kansas City 2.20 3.25 3.50
Chicago vs MetroStars 2.15 3.20 3.60
New England vs Colorado 1.80 3.75 5.75[/B]I hesitate to share my thoughts as I'm 4-10 in the last stretch of games. Ugh. 1-1 on "locks". "Prime 3 is pathetic at -5.04 units. 22-31 overall up .3 units. ($3) Let's make this a "get right" week...

Be careful with your bets as 2 or more draws are likely to happen. Not only because of time of year and mostly similar standing teams are matched, but with the large numbers of players coming into and out of lineups; the tendency will be to accept a point this week.

DAL@LA - Ruiz is in, this one is a no-brainer. LA is better everywhere but possibly midfield and Sigi can wrap his mind around that. The price does suck, and draw is a common feature in LA/DAL fistures. In fact the last 4 have been draws including two (both in DAL) this year. With the two draws in DAL you would think LA could win at home. Kreis is always a bomber and Hartman is not exactly in form. Leave this one alone as value is only on "Draw". Take LA if you must.
LA@1.83

dc@CLB - Not too long ago dc blew out CLB 3-0 in dc. Nobody in MLS is colder than CLB (1-4-1). By contrast dc is unbeaten in 4 games, given up just 1 goal. Both teams return players, but Martino is hurt for CLB. The bogey here is Cunningham. He played 0 minutes in France and I'm sure isn't happy about it. This will be his first opportunity to prove his point. I still take dc on rediculous value and form.
dc@4.15

KC@SJ - This one will have high intensity as is it for the division lead. Too bad nobody will get to see it outside Spartan - not on shootout. {grumble} At least it's consistent as nobody though either team would have much to offer anyway. More importantly for KC it represents a chance to virtually win the series and by extension grab the drivers seat for #1. Any kind of point for KC would mean equal standing with SJ in the series (at worst) with both games remaining. A rookie ref in this one. Veterans should be favored slightly. You decide which lineup is more veteran. KC is hot, they dropped 4 on also hot Chicago, and has the best offense in MLS. SJ has Donovan back although not on form and he's usually contained by Zavagnin and KC's "D". Lagos is suspended. KC is short two starting defenders and it was noticable against CHI. I doubt KC will get 4 on the road. Last match in SJ was a draw, only because Onstad threw one into his own net. The home team wins most of these and its 13-13-3 overall. KC at 3.5 is probably too much, even defenders down. In the presence of only circumstancial evidece take the value. KC@3.5

MET@CHI - Game of the week for names and quality. CHI is so good at home 2-0-2 9:2 on aggregate. MET returns guys, most notably Mathis and Howard. Howard is in purely great form. Usually you automaticly take CHI here as they are at home. The difference being that CHI is struggling defensively and MET is tough enough to win outright, so Draw has merits. Beasley and Armas are back and that should be enough to cure many ills on both sides. MET returns 2 gamebreakers to 1 for CHI. Remember that rule about not taking a team that gives up 4. It was broken last time out. I don't believe it will be this time.
MET@3.6

COL@NE - COL played midweek and gave up yet more points at home. Now they travel on a one-practice week. NE was stomped 4-1 by COL weeks ago. NE will be looking to turn this around. NE does not yield points at home, or goals very often. COL has the worst offense (although improving) in MLS and only LA finishes shots at a lower rate. NE isn't playing with the same quality as the start of the year and COL is improving. Twellman is back, but ill and should be at a reduced effectiveness. The 3-game trend on this one is that COL is improving where NE is trailing off with only 2 ties in its last 3. At COL's inflated price I don't think turning this opportunity down is wise.
COL@5.75

My "Prime 3" will be MET, KC, and LA. Teams on the road with eveidence that they can pull wins creates good opportunities that books don't normally recognise. Good luck.

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

Originally posted by wizardscharter
dc@CLB - Not too long ago dc blew out CLB 3-0 in dc. Nobody in MLS is colder than CLB (1-4-1). By contrast dc is unbeaten in 4 games, given up just 1 goal. Both teams return players, but Martino is hurt for CLB. The bogey here is Cunningham. He played 0 minutes in France and I'm sure isn't happy about it. This will be his first opportunity to prove his point. I still take dc on rediculous value and form.
dc@4.15



I believe that Cunningham has a hamstring or groin problem. I'm not sure what his status is but he may not start.

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by Turk from Pigs Eye
I believe that Cunningham has a hamstring or groin problem. I'm not sure what his status is but he may not start. That would certainly explain 0 minutes in France. Also of note is that Jolley went down for two months also. This puts MET in the position of having to defend Beasley/Razov/et. al. without both Pope and Jolley. This will get even worse when Howard is permanently gone shortly.

Also of note in the CHI/MET game is a "Ring of Fire" tribute to Novak. He will be the first so honored by the franchise. No way the Fire lose on his night, no way.

Given those two large events, I'm switching from MET to CHI@2.15.

[Justin O]

Hopefully this works. I'm going with...

Chicago with a heavy stake.
Colorado with a modest stake plus I'll put down enough to cover for a draw.
DC United with an equally modest stake likewise covering for a draw.

[eric_appleby]

I'm going to try to get back on the saddle here, and take Chicago.

I notice NE is now 1.57 at Intertops. Ridiculous. Twellman is so important to that team.

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

Originally posted by Justin O
Hopefully this works. I'm going with...

Chicago with a heavy stake.
Colorado with a modest stake plus I'll put down enough to cover for a draw.
DC United with an equally modest stake likewise covering for a draw.

Whew! Must have been nice to see that strike from "One-Horse Pony" Razov.

[BerwynBlazers]

wes hart is the man

[Justin O]

Originally posted by Turk from Pigs Eye
Whew! Must have been nice to see that strike from "One-Horse Pony" Razov.

Unfortuntely it wasn't. All soccer bets are for the result after 90 minutes only. This match was a tie as far as betting is concerned. :(