woodlands
07 Jul 2007, 12:18 AM
Does a nation's soccer power correlate with its size or wealth?
I've read some posts lately where people have been saying that they do NOT believe that a nation's soccer power correlates to its size or wealth. Off the top of our heads, we can probably think of examples that support this. For example, while Brazil has 190 million people and they're ranked #3 in the world by FIFA, China has 2.2 billion people and they're ranked only #76. And India with 1.2 billion is ranked #161! And some posts have mentioned the mighty-but-tiny Holland, who with only 16 million people is ranked #9 in the world. And that's not to mention miniscule Croatia with only 4 million people who is ranked #11! In terms of wealth, we see Brazil #3 produces only $644 billion in GNP, while rich Japan produces $5 trillion dollars in GNP and is only ranked #40. And impoverished Ghana with only $10 billion in GNP is ranked way up at #19! And perhaps not surprisingly, when we run a statistical analysis of all countries in the world, we don't find any evidence of a correlation with either size or wealth. So do we close the book on this issue? Wait...not just yet...
When we break down countries by their regions, or simply exclude certain regions (such as Asia and others where soccer isn't as popular), some interesting pictures immediately emerge.
Looking at just the 50 or so nations in Europe, our statistical tests uncover a medium-strength correlation for population and a strong correlation for wealth (compared with points awarded by FIFA). These are both with a probability of greater than 99.9%. When we look closer, we see bigger and richer nations like Italy and France ranked #1 and #2, having around $2 trillion in GNP and 70 to 80 million people. And then we have nations like Iceland #109, Liechtenstein #133, and Luxembourg #174 with populations all under a fraction of a million and GNP's under a few tens of billions. Holland was definitely the rare exception, not the rule. When you graph the nations, you can clearly see the dots getting higher along the FIFA score axis as the countries get bigger or richer.
Looking at the Americas, our statistical tests show much of the exact same thing. Whether we break it down by CONCACAF, or just the "Latin American countries", or just the Caribbean, or most any other combination, we typically see strong correlations emerge in both. With tiny nations like Anguilla #196 having just 13 thousand people and $100 million in GNP, it's not hard to see why. Sure, there are exceptions, like tiny Costa Rica ranked #46 in the world with only 4 million people and $20 billion in GNP. But for every one of those, there is a Grenada or Belize (#155 and #199, both with less than 1 million people and $1 billion in GNP) to make up the difference.
But outside of Europe and the Americas where soccer is so popular, the trends start to break down.
In Asia, there is also no correlation with population size at all. Smaller countries like Japan and South Korea are ranked highly at #40 and #51, while giants like China and India are ranked at #76 and #161 respectively. For wealth, however, there is a very strong correlation in Asia, with rich nations like Japan #40 and their trillions of dollars of GNP dwarfing the likes of Pakistan #178, Phillippines #168, Thailand #122, and Singapore #131, who all produce a couple hundred billion dollars or less.
And in the Middle Eastern countries, there is only a mild correlation with wealth. And no correlation at all with population size. Tiny Israel is ranked #34 in the world while much larger Iraq is ranked #84.
In Africa, there is no correlation with wealth. And only a mild correlation with population size. The richest nation, South Africa, is ranked only #57 while Cameroon and the Ivory Coast, both with less than 1/10th its GNP, are ranked #14 and #20 respectively, among the very best in the world.
Summary
While we can't correlate a nation's soccer power with its size or wealth on a worldwide scale, we can certainly do so within many regions of the world, notably Europe and the Americas. For every exception like Holland, there are nations like Brazil, Mexico, Iceland, and Liechtenstein that conform to the trend.
I've read some posts lately where people have been saying that they do NOT believe that a nation's soccer power correlates to its size or wealth. Off the top of our heads, we can probably think of examples that support this. For example, while Brazil has 190 million people and they're ranked #3 in the world by FIFA, China has 2.2 billion people and they're ranked only #76. And India with 1.2 billion is ranked #161! And some posts have mentioned the mighty-but-tiny Holland, who with only 16 million people is ranked #9 in the world. And that's not to mention miniscule Croatia with only 4 million people who is ranked #11! In terms of wealth, we see Brazil #3 produces only $644 billion in GNP, while rich Japan produces $5 trillion dollars in GNP and is only ranked #40. And impoverished Ghana with only $10 billion in GNP is ranked way up at #19! And perhaps not surprisingly, when we run a statistical analysis of all countries in the world, we don't find any evidence of a correlation with either size or wealth. So do we close the book on this issue? Wait...not just yet...
When we break down countries by their regions, or simply exclude certain regions (such as Asia and others where soccer isn't as popular), some interesting pictures immediately emerge.
Looking at just the 50 or so nations in Europe, our statistical tests uncover a medium-strength correlation for population and a strong correlation for wealth (compared with points awarded by FIFA). These are both with a probability of greater than 99.9%. When we look closer, we see bigger and richer nations like Italy and France ranked #1 and #2, having around $2 trillion in GNP and 70 to 80 million people. And then we have nations like Iceland #109, Liechtenstein #133, and Luxembourg #174 with populations all under a fraction of a million and GNP's under a few tens of billions. Holland was definitely the rare exception, not the rule. When you graph the nations, you can clearly see the dots getting higher along the FIFA score axis as the countries get bigger or richer.
Looking at the Americas, our statistical tests show much of the exact same thing. Whether we break it down by CONCACAF, or just the "Latin American countries", or just the Caribbean, or most any other combination, we typically see strong correlations emerge in both. With tiny nations like Anguilla #196 having just 13 thousand people and $100 million in GNP, it's not hard to see why. Sure, there are exceptions, like tiny Costa Rica ranked #46 in the world with only 4 million people and $20 billion in GNP. But for every one of those, there is a Grenada or Belize (#155 and #199, both with less than 1 million people and $1 billion in GNP) to make up the difference.
But outside of Europe and the Americas where soccer is so popular, the trends start to break down.
In Asia, there is also no correlation with population size at all. Smaller countries like Japan and South Korea are ranked highly at #40 and #51, while giants like China and India are ranked at #76 and #161 respectively. For wealth, however, there is a very strong correlation in Asia, with rich nations like Japan #40 and their trillions of dollars of GNP dwarfing the likes of Pakistan #178, Phillippines #168, Thailand #122, and Singapore #131, who all produce a couple hundred billion dollars or less.
And in the Middle Eastern countries, there is only a mild correlation with wealth. And no correlation at all with population size. Tiny Israel is ranked #34 in the world while much larger Iraq is ranked #84.
In Africa, there is no correlation with wealth. And only a mild correlation with population size. The richest nation, South Africa, is ranked only #57 while Cameroon and the Ivory Coast, both with less than 1/10th its GNP, are ranked #14 and #20 respectively, among the very best in the world.
Summary
While we can't correlate a nation's soccer power with its size or wealth on a worldwide scale, we can certainly do so within many regions of the world, notably Europe and the Americas. For every exception like Holland, there are nations like Brazil, Mexico, Iceland, and Liechtenstein that conform to the trend.