MLS: Week 14

[Wizardscharter]

One thing to note on the home teams for Wed/Thurs games. They are at home in their neighborhoods with the fireworks booming. The visitors are in quiet dark hotel rooms on the umpteenth floor. Especially so in KC's noon start Wed. You judge the effect.

Kansas City vs. DC United 2.15 l 3.26 l 3.60
KC at home on a noon start. KC is playing like crap, DC is playing well but is away. DC's proce seems ridiculous to me based on KC's form.
DC@3.6

Dallas vs. Chivas 1.91 l 3.40 l 4.40
DAL 3 unbeaten at home but were tied by HOU last time out. CHV has won 4 of 5 and looks to have quality defending, GK, and backup GK play. Again the price on CHV is grossly overstated. I'll reach. These bookies are telling me CHV is a bigger dog away than 0-points away RSL is at CLB. B1tch, please... DAL is top of table, but they have played 3 more games than everyone else. Take away DAL's last 4 games and CHV has 1 more point through 12 league games.
CHV@4.4

Colorado vs. Columbus 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.35
CLB found an offense and COL is struggling, 0-5-1 last 6. COL will have the typical huge fireworks crowd.
CLB@3.35

Salt Lake vs. Toronto 2.20 l 3.25 l 3.40
If Dichio's playing, I like TOR. RSL is a bad team that won last time out. Sometimes the first win feelse like it's good enough so bad teams revert back to loserdom. TOR has weapons, but is in the middle of a 6 game roadie due to the U-20 WC. This is still only Game 2 however.
TOR@3.35

Los Angeles vs. Chicago 2.10 l 3.30 l 3.75
Chicago away? They are? OK, then.
LA@3.75

Houston vs. New York 2.15 l 3.25 l 3.50
Champions at home? They are? OK, then. Plus Bulls are struggling, 7 ML:S teams have a better record over the last 8 games.
HOU@2.15

Chicago vs. Toronto 1.91 l 3.20 l 3.60
CHI at home. TOR on a quick turnaround with it's 3rd straight roadie, that's why the price sucks.
CHI@1.91

Los Angeles vs. Kansas City 2.38 l 3.20 l 2.63
KC's record in LA is mostly poor. EJ and Conrad could be back in a limited way. KC is better, but I wouldn't bet this one at all. Today, I say LA at home with LD will be good enough. After the mid-wek games there may be more info.
LA@2.38


New England vs. Chivas 1.80 l 3.25 l 4.00
NE at home and CHV in the 2nd of a double roadie on short rest. It's tempting to take the 4.0, CHV is pretty good. Draw has merit.
NE@1.8

Columbus vs. Salt Lake 1.73 l 3.25 l 4.33
RSL away.
CLB@1.73

Colorado vs. New York 2.50 l 3.00 l 2.63
COL two home games this week, NY two road games this week. NY is better, but in these situations I'm confortable leaning towards the much better rested team at altitude. HOU to DEN isn't exactly a short flight.

Houston vs. DC United 2.00 l 3.00 l 3.50
Champs at home and rolling. Again 2 at home vs two on the road and short rest.
HOU@2.0

[Linus Tulagi]

Thought you'd pull a fast one, didn't you. Change that LA@3.75 to LA@2.10.

Brad Davis is out for the year with a knee injury sustained in practice. Does that change anything? Holden will probably be in his place. That ought to help NY and DC some.

[Linus Tulagi]

I always considered you to be a homer, but your two votes against the Wizards have altered my opinion some.

[Wizardscharter]

I always considered you to be a homer, but your two votes against the Wizards have altered my opinion some.That's an easy thought to have given my screenname. If you had actually researched past threads you would find that my record on KC predictions is about average when compared to the other MLS clubs...not much above or below others.

This season given how KC dominates everyone they play up and down the field, every single game...EVERY SINGLE GAME; it would be easy to lable me as a homer. But open your mind at look at KC's stats every game. They are always at or well over 20 shots and somehow they just can't finish. Most of the chances are of the breakaway or central variety. It's borderline criminal how KC wastes the good work they earn. Even average finishing and KC might have close to 40 goals and the talk would be the immanent destruction of LA's records.

Same story today: Kicked dc's tail for :90 and lost. No big shock. 25 shots or close to it, only 8 on net. All 8 directly at Perkins and others blocked by good defense. Maybe 2 quality shots all game, both just wide. The only KC fan enjoying the wastefulness is Eddie Johnson's agent.

Anyway, I just learned a lesson through too many beats and took dc. I see little reason to think KC can beat an LD led LAG team in a building where success for KC has been fairly rare.

Oops on the LA mixup. Somehow I put it in my records correctly...:)

[Wizardscharter]

Postmortem 7/4:

KC dropped another one they dominated. I finally was converted and nabbed a road win at a good road win price. One large key to MLS betting is getting the road wins home at the good prices, it covers many mistakes. Still, hard to feel too good about it. I took the dumb end of the bet, KC pummeled dc everywhere but the 'board,and I feel lucky to have won. Better than being a smart loser I guess.

Dal beat CHV at home to waste the 4.4 price. Hard to know that Preki would sit Razov until late to, "...give him a rest". Had I known, no way I chase the price. As is the game was still pretty close. A different ref decision (non-decision) and DAL doesn't score the first. Meh, sometimes you lose. More often when you chase the heavy road dog. More and more DAL wins at home against anyone not wearing orange.

On Razov, when stars sit and the public voice says it was just for rest, there is usually more to it. The season isn't that old and, nor is Razov it gets hotter later. Razov has been ineffective of late not scoring much. I think this was at least partially a message to him from Preki. If true, two things happen, either the player comes out of the funk to revert to good form or it tends to destoy the relationship and Razov will be elsewhere nest season. Net effect for this forum is either that Razov will score and CHV will blow out some folks or Razov will define his career with another fade and CHV will get worse at a time when everyone else will return starters. Either way, it's a predictor worth watching and probably one to make some money on in the coming weeks.

COL and CLB combine for no goals. Not sure the fireworks would have made sitting through that game worth it. Draws happen. COL is winless in 7. They should go back to wearing green, IMO.

TOR beat RSL at home. Like I thought, TOR is playing at a good level, RSL isn't and was missing Klein (trade) and Adu (U-20). TOR will fade some as the competition increases and their 6 game road trek develops. RSL should continue to be bad.

LA beats hapless, directionless, coachless, and gutless CHI. LD with a brace. Not a big surprise.

Not a bad day, a huge favorite covers above 2.0, two road wins home, a draw, and a third road dog didn't materialize. 3-2 and way up over 4 units on the day...I'll take that every matchday. I'm finally out of the hole for the first time since week 4. Hope your day was as good.

-WC

[Wizardscharter]

One note on KC at LA: Quotes of players have KC's tone as we will and we must. LA's tone and tenor is more consideration of losing and avoidance of that feeling. Although I think the proce is low, I'm flopping.
KC@2.63

[Linus Tulagi]

EJ played about 72 min vs. Columbia, Conrad didn't play. Maybe Conrad will play vs. LA.

[Wizardscharter]

Rehash:

4-2 to begin the week and 2-4 to end it, up over 2 units. Disappointing given the start, but still not bad.

Houston takes NY at home. Houston flying, unbeaten in 8 and unquestionably again the Champions and the team to beat. Prices will suck, but whaddyagonnado, bet against them? 10 GA through 16 games. Wow.

TOR came back to tie and steal cash from me. Don't look now, but Toronto is playing pretty well away from BMO. RSL is a continuing disaster

KC up 2-0 and blows it to a Jones double. UGH! Bad on so many levels. Anyway, the largest surprise was that KC wasn't anything like the dominant team. Just 8 shots on the day presents a problem. Previously KC had been playing poorly in areas, but still gererated 20+ shots. Not today. Also clouding the crystal ball is EJ's return and Jimmy's increased fitness. KC is winless in 6, but will obviously get better. On current form they look to be a first round playoff casualty. LA has only lost once in their last 4, all home games. Not sure what they will look like when they return to MLS play in August.

Chivas with a credible tie at NE. I said draw had merit. I think the result says more about CHV's quality than NE's. I've now picked CHV to win 8 times and they have come through on 5 of them. That is a positive EV situation by any measure. Obviously NE is better with Twellman and Ralston at full fitness.

RSL losses and the road streak of 0 wins in 12 games continues. CLB is suddenly scoring well and unbeaten in 6.

COL is horrible on every level. I kicked myself for the delusions. For whatever reason NY was struggling and playing away on short rest. 'Pids don't score at home against a tired team. The good thing will be that prices on COL will soar if and when they remember how to play.

HOU, one of only a few MLS teams to play both ends of the weekend at home, shut down dc, just like they shut down everyone else. Never mind that dc is the 3rd best O in MLS, behind NE and KC. 3 more points, ho hum. DC has now lost 2 of 3 and all anyone can say on their boards is "injury" and "short roster", as if they are the only ones to have the problem. The point here was a team played a 3rd straight roadie at the hottest team in the league who also happen to be the holders. I can't believe the price was 2.0.

MISC: 7 draws the last 2 weeks. Ouch. Good to file that away for later when rosters are short and games are abundant. I wonder if other packed weekends have a higher than expected number of draws. More later.