MLS: Week 12

[Wizardscharter]

Wed:
Columbus 3.10 3.35 2.38 Kansas City
Over 1.95 Under 2.10

Houston 2.10 3.29 3.55 Chivas
Over 2.00 Under 1.95

New England 1.70 3.50 5.00 Toronto
Over 1.65 Under 2.10

Colorado Rapids 2.50 3.22 2.73 Dallas
Over 1.80 Under 2.00

Real Salt Lake 3.00 3.25 2.38 DC

Los Angeles 2.01 3.26 3.60 Columbus
Over 1.73 Under 2.00

Kansas City 2.12 3.27 3.30 Houston
Over 1.70 Under 2.05

[Wizardscharter]

Wed: KC@CLB Hedjuk and Eddie Johnson out for Gold Cup.

KC is healing and should be as close to full fitness as they have been since the opener. KC can score with anyone on the field and against anyone in the league. KC is the only team to not be shutout all year. KC is 6-2-1 v CLB going back 3 seasons. KC is 6-1-1 vs East teams. KC owns MLS' best road record.

CLB will be missing all 4 of its' starting defenders to Nat duty, injury, or card suspension. Backup Will Hesmer - former Wizard backup - started last week and is rumored (Crew board) to be the starter v KC. CLB is 1-1-3 at home in '07 and winless in their last 3 home games.

I would bet the mortgage on the OVER and until CLB can prove they are of KC's class, I think you have to take the road favorite here, even at a thin 2.38. KC has issues in NY and CHI. No such problems in Ohio. The sole only reason to take CLB is if you think this is a "trap" game for KC looking ahead to hosting the Champions, Houston, on Sunday.
KC@2.38 Over@1.95

[Linus Tulagi]

That 5.00 for Toronto looks awfully tempting. Toronto is in good form and NE has been struggling at home.

[Wizardscharter]

That 5.00 for Toronto looks awfully tempting. Toronto is in good form and NE has been struggling at home.Be careful, Toronto has won 4 of 6 at home which is where they have played the majority of their recent matches. BMO field has turned out to be worth roughly a goal a game for the T-Leafs. By sharp contrast, TOR is 0-3-1 away from BMO with a ridiculously bad GD. TOR is short in net, defense (although they just Traded Buddle for Marshall who will be suspended), their offense loses Lombardo for the U-23 Canucks, and Dichio rolled his ankle last week. He might play, but at what percentage? Put that together with a distict lack of 20,000 crazy Canucks in scarlet, raising cain and you have a sketchy situation.

TOR won last week 4-0. That was against a depleted Hoops side playing away and its' 3rd game in 8 days on one full day rest.

Maybe Sutton (GK) and others come back to TOR if CAN bows out to the USA Thursday night. Still that would be short rest after travel from Chicago to NE. How effective would they be? CAN wins and NE gets three stallwarts back, some presumabaly on full rest...unless they stay for the COPA AMERICA. Details to check on regardless, if you are putting money towards this.

On to NE, they may appear to be struggling. In their "struggles" they have still managed to put up 3 goals a game, have only lost once in their last 10 games, and only twice in 11 this season. Only KC has beaten NE at home and it toook 4 goals and an EJ hat trick to barely do that.

So, the price might look attractive and it could happen given a bouce or a card here and there. Still, there's a reason the number is at 5. If you must take TOR, do the "Asian line" that includes a draw. I wouldn't touch this game as there is little value in any of the 3 prices. In my opinion if I have to bet, 5.0 isn't enough to chase the T-Leafs. Nothing indicates TOR wins this game.
NE@1.7

More games later.

[Wizardscharter]

After posting the above I thought of a concept to make clear. In the above, I'm not saying "I'm right and you are wrong." I'm saying, "There no 'expected value' in putting $10 on Toronto, IMO." This might not be new to you, but it may be to others, so it's a good thing to review or introduce to this board.

Here's what I mean:

Nobody can predict with certainty so you look at what is there to see. I didn't post everything by any stretch. So, in my view TOR has liitle chance, maybe as little as 5% or less, to win. NE has a much better chance, maybe as high as 60-70% or greater.

There is a concept called "Expected value" that roughly says in a coin-flip bet for a dollar, your EV is 0. With a fair coin, you expect to lose as often as you win, (-1+1)/2 equals 0. EV assumes that over the long run you will repeat bets in certain situations. So looking at the cumulative effect of 10, 20, or a million like situations is helpful in establishing overall risk and how you expect to end up. If this isn't clear there are many math websits that do a better job.

Shifting to the TOR@NE line you have - again using my estimates - two situations.

Bet TOR: Risk 10 to profit +40. This will happen 1 in 20.
Do this 20 times and you have $190 in losses and one $40 win. Net is -$150
-$150 over 20 bets is an EV of -$7.50 per bet.
Even at a 10% win rate for TOR the EV is -$2.50
You are still losing money with every bet.

Bet NE: At 1.7 you risk 10 to win $7. At 70% - which is borderline ridiculously optomistic - 7 times of 10 you win $7, the other 3 you lose $10 for a TOR win or draw. 7 wins*+7=49, 3 losses*-10=-30, 49-30=19
19 over 10 bets is an EV of $1.9. For me 1.9 isn't much expceted value for risking $10 and for a game where a draw kills all the math.

You can make your own judgements on proper percentages and I'm often wrong of course. The math works the same regardless. In a situation where you must make a bet, take the most positive (or least negative) EV.

This is the main reason I don't advocate betting draws, playing roulette, or putting money in the central area of a craps table.

Good luck.

[Wizardscharter]

New England 1.70 3.50 5.00 Toronto
Over 1.65 Under 2.10

Colorado Rapids 2.50 3.22 2.73 Dallas
Over 1.80 Under 2.00

Real Salt Lake 3.00 3.25 2.38 DC

Los Angeles 2.01 3.26 3.60 Columbus
Over 1.73 Under 2.00

Kansas City 2.12 3.27 3.30 Houston
Over 1.70 Under 2.05Short offering, H2oski weekend.

Portmortem: KC outshot CLB, had the better of possession, but gave up their first goal on a CK all season and had another go in off of a scramble out front where CLB just got the better bounce and converted. If you didn't see the game, it's very apparent that Schelotto and Miglianrazi sp? are two guys adding an entire other dimintion to the CLB attack. Sometimes you lose.

I would have taken HOU at home as CHV away is winless. Oh well.

Onward.

NE@1.7 for reasons mentioned above - Over@1.65

DAL@2.73. I don't like COL anywhere at the moment. COL did win their last home game and does return after 3 straight road losses. DAL has lost 3 of 4 road games, but the last loss was on just a full day rest. DAL has been scoring and COL has not. I like the under at COL, 1-0 and 2-0 are common scores.
Under@2.0

DC@2.38 - RSL just traded the only winning professional on their roster, Klein, to LA. There is an argument to be made for that sparking a team, but DC might win this one by 3 or 4. DC is unbeaten in forever. Over for the same reason if you can find a line. I couldn't.

CLB is 12-8-6 v LA for whatever reason. LA is lacking many things including wide play. Klein will help. CLB's new men might have more. I like the road price on CLB.
CLB@3.6 Over1.73

KC wins at home. Houston on one less day rest at KC. I like the under here as HOU will not get 4 and HOU has a quality defense with enough to seep up with KC.
KC@2.12, Under@2.05

Good luck

-WC