Results that could prevent Mexico from advancing in GC [R]

[tab5g]

as of the morning of 6/12, with just four more group games to be played in the first round of of GC 2007, here are the standings.

Group A
Team W L T P GF GA GD
CAN 2 1 0 6 5 3 +2
CRC 1 1 1 4 3 3 0
GDL 1 1 1 4 3 3 0
HAI 0 1 2 2 2 4 -2

Group B
Team W L T P GF GA GD
USA 2 0 0 6 3 0 +3
SLV 1 1 0 3 2 2 0
GUA 1 1 0 3 1 1 0
TRI 0 2 0 0 1 4 -3

Group C
Team W L T P GF GA GD
PAN 1 0 1 4 5 4 +1
HON 1 1 0 3 4 4 0
MEX 1 1 0 3 3 3 0
CUB 0 1 1 1 3 4 -1

now, as the top two from each group and the two best third place finishers advance to the quarter-finals, there is still a lot to be decided (and it may be silly to try to forecast this or discuss all of the possibilities).

but, I'm trying to illustrate that a less-than-favorable result (a Draw or Loss) for the US v El Salvador on 6/12 may actually go some ways toward eliminating Mexcio from the GC.

Of course this is all dependent on Mexico not winning it's game on 6/13 v Panama. should Mexico win, they're on to the quarterfinals (like Canada, Costa Rica, and the US already are).

but should Mexico tie or lose to Panama (and should Honduras at least get a point from their match v Cuba), the US/El Salvador result could help determine if Mexico goes through as a best or second-best third place team.

I'm not suggesting that the USMNT attempt to tie or lose to El Salvador, but I'm pointing out that such a result may play a factor in who else (from Groups A and C) goes on to the quarterfinals, and who goes out of the tournament.

[Tony in Quakeland]

I want Mexico to advance. So we can kick thier butts ourselves.

[tab5g]

by my rough calculations a result of a 2-2 tie (or higher score) in the US v El Salvador match gives the US first place in group B, and gives the best possibility that a Mexico loss to (or draw with) Panama might prevent Mexico from advancing to the second round of the Gold Cup.

there are many possible outcomes for the four remaining games in group play, and this discussion (of how Mexico might not advance) will all be nullified should Mexico beat Panama on 6/13.

But getting the group B third place team up to 4 points (or more) -- and this also requires that Gautemala gets a good result against T&T -- could really put some extra pressure on Mexico as they prepare for their match vs Panama.

[tab5g]

I want Mexico to advance. So we can kick thier butts ourselves.

and there is always that school of thought.

as that is a great school.

although, this analysis (and forecast exercise) could also help determine if the US is more likely to potentially face Mexico in the Finals or the Quarterfinals.

if the US wins group A, and Mexico finishes in third in group C (and with enough points to advance as one of the two-best third place teams), then the USMNT and Mexico would meet in the Quarterfinals in Foxboro this weekend.

[Eleven Bravo]

I hope they lose...it'd be pretty funny.

[Shibb]

I hope they lose...it'd be pretty funny.


Yes, there is the comedy angle. Hard to resist that. But another "dos a cero" would be even more wonderful.

[Lord Helmet]

I hope they lose...it'd be pretty funny.

Yup. While I'd like to do the butt kicking ourselves...it would be all too funny if they were eliminated.

[rksehga]

Yes, there is the comedy angle. Hard to resist that. But another "dos a cero" would be even more wonderful.


So, the Mexican National team had an autograph session at the Adidas store in NYC this past Saturday. I live a few blocks away and run past there on my way to the gym. I generally work out in an old US training shirt and just happend to be sporting some match shorts that day as well.

Anyway, as I ran to the gym, there were about 200 Mexicans lined up on the street waiting to get in to the store. I yelled "Dos-a-Cero! Dos-a-Cero!" as i passed them. Got them riled up real nice. On the way home, I noticed that their numbers swelled to like 500 and that there were now cops present to keep order. I decided that the only decent thing to do was to stop on the sidewalk in front of them and serenade them, as loudly as possible, with the sombrero song. What a glorious start to the day.

[MartSkin]

I hope they lose...it'd be pretty funny.

Not to mention it would negatively effect their FIFA rankings. :P

[Adam Zebrowski]

well, whoemever usa draws from the mexico group, it's gonna be a very tough match....

didn't usa have to handle panama via PKS last gold cup...

honduras attack will TEST the usa kiddie midfield....2001 rfk anyone...repeat possible...

mexico might actually be an easier match....they look terrible so far, like they don't want to play....but a usa match will change their motivation....

go panama.... and let honduras beat cuba

wanna here the screams if usa goes down in the quarters...

more likely than some want to admit right now

[tab5g]

well, whoemever usa draws from the mexico group, it's gonna be a very tough match....


if the US finishes as B1, they will play either A3 (Guadaloupe) or C3 (TBD) in the quarterfinals (in Foxboro).

If the US finishes as B2, they will play A1 (Canada) in the quarterfinals (in Foxboro).

If the US finishes as B3 (if that is still possible -- and I guess it is if Guatemala and El Salvador each win by 2 goals tonight), the US plays C1 (TBD) in the quarterfinals (in Houston).


http://www.ussoccer.com/common/stContent.jsp_19-2007GoldCupSchedule.html

[Shibb]

Not to mention it would negatively effect their FIFA rankings. :P

Not necessarily a good thing. Although it would suck to see them get another WC Finals seed, having higher ranked teams in CONCACAF is generally going to help our ranking, if I understand the process at all (which may not be the case).

[Adam Zebrowski]

i cannot see el salvador beating usa...so i presume usa wins the group...

i'd bet on mexico against panama, as panama starters have played BOTH matches and mexico rested guys like usa did...

so i suspect mexico wins by 2 or more....

true, the other 3rd place finishers comes down to matches and scores which are hard to project....

given the ugliest and incompetence from guatemala and reffing, usa is hard to really judge...

it's more like italy starting out with problematic results and play, and just getting better....

[seeds]

i say we spank el salvador 5-0 tonight, showing the tourney for the first time that we are what we say we are, as well as our absolute lack of concern of who we might me in the quarter finals.

let our result speak for itself to all the teams out there who'd rather not play us in the quarter finals, including mexico.

[TimB4Last]

i say we spank el salvador 5-0 tonight, showing the tourney for the first time that we are what we say we are, as well as our absolute lack of concern of who we might me in the quarter finals.

let our result speak for itself to all the teams out there who'd rather not play us in the quarter finals, including mexico.

So it shall be written, so it shall be done.

[NMMatt]

wanna here the screams if usa goes down in the quarters...

I probably wouldn't log on until Copa if that happened. People tend to get a bit irrational around here, especially when the US plays poorly, i.e. last summer. Seeing how irrational some have become after a couple of wins, I'd hate to see what happens after an actual loss to a CONCACAF team, even though it's inevitable, if not now, then probably during qualifying at some point.

[Shibb]

i say we spank el salvador 5-0 tonight, showing the tourney for the first time that we are what we say we are, as well as our absolute lack of concern of who we might me in the quarter finals.

let our result speak for itself to all the teams out there who'd rather not play us in the quarter finals, including mexico.

Good guess. A few inches here or there and it could have easily been 5 tonight.

[IronMan]

Results that would prevent Mexico from advancing...

Cuba defeats Honduras
Panama defeats Mexico

Final standings Group C...

1. Panama - 7 points
2. Cuba - 4 points
3. Honduras - 3 points
4. Mexico - 3 points

Note: Honduras defeated Mexico in group play, thus they hold the tie-breaker.

[MMJ4mil]

so both those game predictions would have to occur or just one of them?

[Shibb]

so both those game predictions would have to occur or just one of them?


Both