MLS: Week 10

[Wizardscharter]

Wednesday:
Toronto vs. New York 2.88 l 3.30 l 2.55

Bulls favored on the road, hmmm. They probably should be, but, as we know BMO is worth about a goal to the home team. I think NY is about a goal to a goal and a half better than what TOR will run out Wednesday night. For NY-Waterrus and Parke are missing from defense. Reyna should be fit. For TOR: they are missing fully 9 guys due to injury or call-ups. That fact didn't seem to matter much on the weekend. NY isn't Colorado, NY with 11 guys is a different team, and nobody seems to have an answer to JP Angel. I'd like the number for Toronto to be bigger, that and Angel are the two solid reasons to ride the Bulls.

Other factors would be NY is playing in their second consecutive roadie on short rest. NY can't be expecting much in dc playing the 3rd road game in 8 days, better to earn points now. Any dropped points to TOR or DC in effect gives margin to KC as they have earned wins both places and will have games in hand a week from now. I'm certain a coach will mention that to them at some point.

KC focused after losing to DAL, I believe NY will have similar resolve. I want TOR to win this one, but my money would say Bulls.
NY@2.55

[ibasso]

O.K....its not MLS...but it is still winning money... :)

Haiti at 1.6 to 1 to beat Guadalop seems like a lock this week at Gold Cup...and it is 1.95 to 1 payout to be leading at the half...go Haiti for the absolute lock...

[yure323]

O.K....its not MLS...but it is still winning money... :)

Haiti at 1.6 to 1 to beat Guadalop seems like a lock this week at Gold Cup...and it is 1.95 to 1 payout to be leading at the half...go Haiti for the absolute lock...
I wanted to bet on Haiti,but then I saw on Wikipedia that Chimbonda from Tottenham is on the Guadalope roster,another player from Sheffield Utd and a few from Ligue 1.

[yure323]

Sorry,my mistake Chimbonda isn't on the Gold Cup roster.
GUADELOUPE
GK: Marius Fausta (Evolucas), Franck Grandel (FC Utrecht/NED), Fabrice Mercury (CS Moulien);
DF: Miguel Comminges (Reims/FRA), Philippe Durpes (Romorantin/FRA), David Fleurival (FC Tours/FRA), David Sommeil (Sheffield United/ENG), Michael Tacalfred (Dijon/FRA), Alain Vertot (Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau);
MD: Jocelyn Angloma (Etoile de Morne-à-l'Eau), Stéphane Auvray (Vannes FC/FRA), Lery Hannany (Racing Club), Jean Luc Lambourde (Amical Club), Dominique Mocka (JS Vieux-Habitants), Marving Onestas (J/Evolution), Ludovic Quistin (Tamworth FC/ENG), Constant Therezine (AS Gosier);
AT: Aurélien Capoue (FC Nantes/FRA), Cédrick Fiston (A.J.S.S.), Ludovic Gotin (CS Moulien), Loic Loval (FC Utrecht/NED), Fabien Raddas (Poissy/FRA), Richard Socrier (Brest/FRA).

Still seems like the team is decent.

HAITI
GK: Gabart Fenelon (Miami FC/USA), Peterson Occenat (Violette AC), Jonas Simeon (Tempete);
DF: Frantz Bertin (Athletico Madrid/ESP), Pierre-Richard Bruny (Don Bosco), Frantz Gilles (Cavaly AS), Stephane Guillaume (Miami FC/USA), Windsor Noncent (Sans Club), Jean-Jacques Pierre (Nantes/FRA), Ednerson Raymond (Baltimore de St-Marc), Olrish Saurel (Don Bosco);
MD: Jean Sony Alcenat (Aigle Noir AC), J. Michel Alexandre Boucicaut (Violette AC), Mones Chery (Racing Club Haiten), Brunel Fucien (Aigle Noir AC), Peter Germain (Baltimore de St-Marc), James Marcelin (Racing Club Haiten), Turlien Romulus (Cavaly AS), Pierre Roland Saint Jean (Baltimore de St-Marc), Alain Vubert (Baltimore de St-Marc);
AT: Cadet Éliphene (Tempete FC), Noel Fabrice (Sans Club), Ricardo Pierre-Louis (no club).

Haiti are the favorites,but they don't seem that much better than Guadalope although it's almost a home game for them in Miami.

[Wizardscharter]

O.K....its not MLS...but it is still winning money... :)

Haiti at 1.6 to 1 to beat Guadalop seems like a lock this week at Gold Cup...and it is 1.95 to 1 payout to be leading at the half...go Haiti for the absolute lock...I have no idea why anyone would put any money aon any soccer team at 1.6:1 to win. This especially in any tournament where Jack Warner will be a presence. Not the best bet...even with whatever Guadalope is.

When is this game?


On to MLS:
Thusrday - Houston vs. Colorado 2.25 l 3.30 l 3.50
I like COL anywhere lately and they are coming off a loss at TOR that should serve as good reason to focus. Houston lost most of their offense to the Gold Cup. The bright light for HOU is that guys who don't normally get time will be in and occasionally that serves as a spark. More often it's a negative, of course. 3.5 is too good of a number for a team that loses just Brown by comparison. Brown being a guy that was getting bench time anyway and when he is in he's a fairly stationary forward, seemingly good only for poaching rebounds. Think Scott Sealy for KC without the brain, speed, movement, D, or hustle. Anyone COL puts in to replace him is bound to give a dimension previously missing.

Again the number is too big on COL to pass, but HOU did win at home last time out. If you like to cover your risk somewhat I'd entertain an Asian on COL.
COL@3.5

[Justin O]

Haiti is good by lowly Carribean standards, but there's no way Haiti is ever a lock.

[Wizardscharter]

Condoul should have made that save on the 2nd Houston goal. No question Houston is playing better. Maybe there is something to a switch from two struggling forwards...

Sat:
Dallas 1.85 l 3.40 l 5.00 Los Angeles
LA without Landycakes. LA on the road. LA has little or no wing speed and noone to cover Cooper. Bad price, use caution. I'm also 0-7 on LA results so maybe Justin's over 5.0 rule is a good fit here. Then again, I'm due.
DAL@1.85 Over

Chicago 2.20 l 3.30 l 3.75 Chivas
Chivas is better. Chi just keeps beating better teams at home by an odd goal. Preki, former Wizard, is part of the KC@Chi curse. Preki has been part of exactly one on-field winner in his MLS history in Chicago - MIA '01. That team won in Chicago, but folded. Ouch. If you don't believe in that sort of thing, I understand.

CHV's Galindo will be the best on ground, he should also be a bit pumped as his Cuba is part of the Gold Cup. Galindo can't play for Cuba but should be feeling the National pride. Chicago is without Curtin, the younger, as he earned a red card in the previous game through 2 yellows. Guzan is playing well also. Me? I've seen that curse up close for 12 seasons. It's real. KC even lost to a PDL club on PKs in Chicago in the Open Cup. Chivas does have a wide differential in results home to road. - undefeated at home, winless away.
CHI@2.2 Over

Sun: DC United 2.38 l 3.25 l 2.92 New York
If NY can win in Toronto, I see absolutely no reason why they can't win in DC. Quick, who on dc can stop JP Angel? I can't think of anyone either. NY has allowed a total of 5 goals against all teams that don't suit up Eddie Johnson. DC could have easily given up 3 to LA last week, mostly on defensive zone turnovers. NY is expert in getting and converting deep turnovers. DC's only hope is that NY will have played in KC last weekend, in Toronto Wednesday, and should be lagging - 3 straight roadies is roughly a 12% win for the visitor situation through MLS history. I think this is one of the 12%.
NY@2.92 Under

Columbus 2.30 l 3.25 l 2.90 Houston
Houston is hot, having won two straight. CLB is winless in 5, but undefeated at home 1-0-3. All CLB does at home is get ties and not lose. As mentioned HOU was lucky to win. HOU will also be on very short rest using player who are not used to playing. All of those things scream DRAW. What doesn't scream draw is that CLB's weakness is scoring, their best player is with the USA, their second best player is on defense, and their new Agentinian is still learning where everyone will be. I thought they would break out last week and they failed miserably. I have no confidence in any bet, but I have to say Houston because I can't go draw at 3.25, HOU is hot, and CLB isn't good enough to go undefeated at home.
HOU@2.9 Under

[Wizardscharter]

Postmortem:
This thread was pretty much a primer on how to (and not to) bet mid-season MLS. Things had been going poorly of late, so you do a little more, look a little deeper. Don't put money on anything without several solid reasons. Hopefully things turn around. 3-3 with a +2.35 units week this week - a huge, much needed improvement. Olson doesn't go bonkers and I pay more attention to a team well represented on my fantasy side (CHV) and I have a great week. Oh well.

WED: Rule of thumb: Take the better team with the best player over the hot team playing very shorthanded, even at home. The best player is worth more than anything else generally.

THU: Rule of thumb: Hot team at home (even when shorthanded) over struggling team on multiple game road trip.

GC: Don't ever, ever, ever bet a team to win below 1.75 odds, and certainly not at 1.6, certainly not in CONCACAF, and not against a team composed of players unknown to you. Better to just leave it alone or take an asian-line if you must. Never put any faith in a voodoo nation... :)

SAT: Rule: Teams without either a road win or an offense don't get your money. LA has no offense and can't travel for squat. That DAL won wasn't alarming, that they put up 3 is a mild shock without Ruiz and Cooper now. Cooper is hurt for 6-8 weeks also.

The @CHI curse is a thing limited to only KC apparently and is generally a stupid thing to bet in the first place. Better to look at the injury report and realize CHI has offensive issues that a sound defensive team like CHV can and did exploit. El Guzano has been quality for some time now. Put some defenders in front of him and he gets better. It shouldn't be a shock anymore. The last thing is streaks end, CHV has a road win now. For the future, it's good to find the root or roots. Is it Preki's coaching? Is it the sound defense? Both? Something else? More numbers next week.

I was very surprised to see NY allow 4. Especially mostly from central. The combo of NY being shorthanded, playing a hot rival on a long unbeaten run, Van de Burg's lack of speed, and 3 roadies in 8 days didn't get enough respect from me. I deserve to lose that one. That said, I wonder what the Vegas odds on a hat trick from anyone on DC would have been, much less Olson.

Nothing better than calling a road win, even if you need an own goal to do it. ID the teams that find ways to drop points. That's CLB. Hou was rolling coming in and has now won 3 straight. Ching scores for the USA. Good to get in on the streaks early. The Champions are back.

-WC

[Justin O]

GC: Don't ever, ever, ever bet a team to win below 1.75 odds, and certainly not at 1.6, certainly not in CONCACAF, and not against a team composed of players unknown to you. Better to just leave it alone or take an asian-line if you must. Never put any faith in a voodoo nation... :)


I bolded what is for me the most important part of your post.

However, I've got to say, the most success I've had over the years has been when I've bet large stakes on heavy favorites (1.10-1.30) as singles, with a specific target identified at which I make my withdrawal. For me, that's proven to be the most effective way to double my money.