MLS Week 11 - (Wed game also)

[Wizardscharter]

From intertops:
Wed - dc 3.0 3.15 2.1 @Colorado
Sat - Chicago 3.85 3.15 1.8 @MetroStars
Columbus 2.55 3.05 2.45 @dc
San Jose 2.5 3.0 2.5 @Dallas
New England 2.3 3.0 2.75 @Colorado

From bet365:
Wed - dc 3.0 3.0 2.1 @Colorado

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

A lot of these numbers seem out of whack. I would favor Dallas over SJ, DC over Colorado, and why are the MetroStars so heavily favored over Chicago? You've got to figure Razov to "fire" one past Grafer.

[Justin O]

Tougher to call this week I think. Obviously the big thing to keep in mind will be all the missing players. My initial thoughts are New England, even without Twellman, are a decent pick. I'm not sure how much more healthy San Jose will be Saturday, but if it's the San Jose of the last couple of weeks minus Donovan then maybe Dallas is a good pick. Maybe. Hard to say. San Jose were unlucky not to get a point away to Columbus so perhaps too much emphasis is placed on their injury situation. I'll have to ponder further....

[Justin O]

A little difficult to take Chicago after their performance last weekend, but you're right "Turk from Pigs Eye" even with Chicago's absentees that's a high price considering no Howard, Mathis or Pope.

edit:
William Hill have Chicago at 5.00.

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by wizardscharter
From intertops:
Wed - dc 3.0 3.15 2.1 @Colorado
Picking a winner in this one is somewhat like a high school janitor picking which plugged toilet in the boy's locker room to snake first. No winners here. I'm personally glad I can't watch this one on the Shootout.

Both teams are horrid, missing people, reside in lsat place, have questionable coaching, questionable leadership on the soccer operations end, and are currently dealing with difficulty. The only kind thing to say of either team is both have won within the last two games.

First dc - They are close to an abortion on the road giving up 2 a game at 0-3-1 overall. The one being the April 26 tie at lowly Colorado. Stewart, Convey, and Nelson are at the Confed Cup. I wish I could tell you who will replace these 3, but I'm not certain it will matter. Etch is in yellow peril so will have to play more conservatively on defense. Rimando has been playing better.
Colorado had Stewart go down with an ACL tear. Zizi Roberts is still out also. The rapids are more lie a slow trickle offensively with just 4 goals in 8 games. They did win the last outing at Mile High against winless at the time LA.

It's tempting to go draw here, but 3.1:1 isn't enough for me. Two terrible teams should recognize this as a great opportunity for points so someone should get a winner. I like Spencer, Chung, and Henderson slightly over Olsen and Etch in the battle of dangerous players on the field. As it's been longer since Colorado earned a win, they have less guys out, and are at home.
COL@2.1

[Justin O]

Originally posted by wizardscharter
I'm personally glad I can't watch this one on the Shootout.

Not that I disagree with the sentiment expressed, but this match does have one thing going for it. With only 2 teams not making the playoffs at least games at the bottom have a little more at stake.

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

I'm wondering if this could be a breakout week for Casey Schmidt. Colo looked rediculous with two midgets up front last week. They have two games. I have Casey on my MFLS team and I need somebody to replace Donovan. I could also go with Buddle but although he should start I don't think he will score a goal. I'd like trade for Jason Kreis.

[BerwynBlazers]

Originally posted by Turk from Pigs Eye
I'm wondering if this could be a breakout week for Casey Schmidt. Colo looked rediculous with two midgets up front last week. They have two games. I have Casey on my MFLS team and I need somebody to replace Donovan. I could also go with Buddle but although he should start I don't think he will score a goal. I'd like trade for Jason Kreis.

I was thinkin the same thing about Schmidt, I've had him on by mfls bench since the beginning of the season. I bought Damani Ralph after I couldn't afford Razov. I'm going to put a rather large stake on the Fire game, I don't see Razov letting the team lose to Bradley. The one guy I'm worried about on the MetroStars is Mike Magee. I took him out of MFLS lineup and I'm sure the Chicago boy will want to have a good game against his hometown team. Go Fire.

[Turk from Pigs Eye]

Is there any news on KC vs. LA?

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by Turk from Pigs Eye
Is there any news on KC vs. LA? Any minutia will make the boards, just check them.

Note on dc v COL tonight: My pick failed to account for Maestroeni's absence (Nat camp). I'l stick with my original pick, but if I was to redo it, I would heavily consider "Draw".

MO on Schmidt: I had him on my fantasy team (Thundering Herd of Buffalo) also, but not because I thought he would get major time. He was scoring in the pre-season and his price was 35. Good enough for me. I sold him some weeks ago. He could get in there as Carrieri and Spencer paired with eachother basicly eliminates anything aerial, which in turn nullifies Chung and Hendu's wing presence to a large extent.

[Eric B]

Bet 365's has KC/LA:

Kansas City 2.75 3.25 2.20@Los Angeles

I couldn't find MLS on Intertops.

[Justin O]

Market Average for matches of June 14:

Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.21 3.15 2.80
MetroStars vs Chicago 1.74 3.24 4.17
D.C.United vs Columbus 2.45 3.04 2.57
Dallas vs San Jose 2.53 3.04 2.46
Colorado vs New England 2.77 3.10 2.25

Highest odds
Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.52 3.32 3.25
MetroStars vs Chicago 1.90 3.40 5.10
D.C.United vs Columbus 2.60 3.20 2.85
Dallas vs San Jose 2.65 3.40 2.61
Colorado vs New England 3.00 3.25 2.35

source: bettingadvice odds comparison (http://bettingadvice.com/showInfo.php?id=30)

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by Justin O
[u]Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.52 3.32 3.25
MetroStars vs Chicago 1.90 3.40 5.10 are you kidding me? The league leaders at 3.25? Chicago at a depleated and struggling dc at a rediculous 5.1? Those two jump out at me initially. KC does tend to struggle at LA, but 3.25 worth of struggle, I dunno. An A-league team against dc at 5.1 is worth a thought, much less Thornton, Razov, and crew.

[Wizardscharter]

Originally posted by wizardscharter
An A-league team against dc at 5.1 is worth a thought, much less Thornton, Razov, and crew. Oops, misread on the "dc".

Chicago against depleated MET (howard, Pope, Mathis) at 5.1 is a bargain also.

[Eric B]

Originally posted by wizardscharter
are you kidding me? The league leaders at 3.25? KC does tend to struggle at LA, but 3.25 worth of struggle, I dunno.

Well, it is the highest of the books they compare. I would think the Galaxy, newly pumped at being home, at +152 is a pretty good bargain as well.

[Justin O]

over/under 2.5 goals from marathon
Met-Chi ...1.55/2.20
DCU/Clm...1.60/2.10
Dal/SJ...1.60/2.10
Col/NE...1.55/2.20
LA/KC...1.60/2.10

You'd have to be nuts to take any of the overs at those prices. Those are petty good prices on the unders, however, on all the games except probably LA-KC. With so many teams lacking firepower due to national team call-ups the under could be worthwhile. However, I have a dreadful track record with total goal bets so I may steer clear.

Otherwise I'm definitely taking Chicago. That price is just too much to pass up. Home field doesn't mean much (Chicago won both away last year, and in any case I don't put much stock in most home field advantages in MLS) and I think the Fire have the depth to deal with their missing players better than the Metros can.

I'm a little less enthusiastic about my other picks but I'll put smaller stakes on Dallas to take a still injury-depleted and now Donovan-less San Jose (depsite a decent performance by San Jose last weekend) and I'll take New England over Colorado. Hopefully Kamler plays and JMM will step up for the missing Twellman. I mean it's just Colorado.

[Wizardscharter]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Justin O
[B]Latest Highest odds
Los Angeles vs Kansas City 2.52 3.32 3.25
MetroStars vs Chicago 1.90 3.50 5.10
D.C.United vs Columbus 2.60 3.20 2.85
Dallas vs San Jose 2.65 3.40 2.61
Colorado vs New England 3.00 3.25 2.35

CHI@MET - both teams come in off of road losses. CHI will be without DMB, Boca, and Armas. MET misses Wolyniec on susp. Mathis, Moreno, Howard, and Pope. The ref seems to be skewed in favor of CHI if you believe such things. There are many other details regarding this one that you can find elsewhere. The most important one is that MET is short their stars while CHI still has Thornton and Razov. As the price on CHI is almost prohibitive not to take it...
CHI@5.1

CLB@dc - Tough game to pick. dc just earned their first win and couldn't beat Colorado, still can't find frame much less score, will be missing Nelson (NZL), and have only one win v CLB in the last 8 tries. CLB, by contrast has 4 wins, a similar quality defense, a much better offense, but will be missing Cunningham, Martino, Hejduk, and Oughton. They did beat a sadly depleated SJ last week and should be good enough to at least get a point in dc. Draw isn't attractive to me, nor is a road question mark at just 2.8. When you have many negative questions and missing guys, it's usually best to go with defense. On value only, I'll take dc for a 1-0 win.
dc@2.6

SJ@DAL - SJ is a MASH unit now without the only separating class as yet unhurt - Donovan. DAL has a new striker to pair with Kreis. DAL@2.65

NE@COL - NE is unbeaten in 5, COL has 4 goals all season and will be playing 3 games in 8 days. Both teams are improving, but the bet COL can hope for is an off night for NE's offense. Easy pick. The question is do you give more than one goal on Futbolsa.com.
NE@2.35

KC@LA - Many things with this one can be mentioned to skew thinking either way. I'm going to go with these two. 1) Califf and Elliot out against the best offense in MLS. Lalas must play and isn't in :90 shape. KC has been a :90 attacking team. Garcia is more than capable of shutting out Ruiz. Even if he gets one, who will step up to tie the game against the 2 KC will get? 2) Hartman has pretty much stood around against COL last 2 times out. KC is clearly more dangerous. Can Hartman raise his game to match on the ether of limited in game prep? Hartman and others are good. LA is certainly capable of winning and my iffy history with predicting KC is well-known. I truly like KC in the "non-upset" upset. Value is rediculously on KC's side with this line. Draw is OK here too, but I can't do it.
KC@3.25

[Wizardscharter]

"Prime 3" are dc, NE, and DAL.
18-22 overall with the midweek loss on the tie. Up $18.80 for the year.

[BerwynBlazers]

oh huge stake on chicago

[Justin O]

A combination on Chicago, Dallas and New England pays 23.02 at gamebbokers. Zoiks! Looks like once again there's pretty solid consensus here as well as other boards. Good luck to all.