Élections législatives françaises de 2007 [R]

[guignol]

here are your ballots kids... no hanging chads with these!

http://isadoraaa.chez-alice.fr/pave1.jpg

[Douai]

Where is everyone?There was a big surprise in the results.The right didn't win as many seats as they were predicted to win:

http://medias.francetv.fr/bibl/url_images/2007/06/18/image_32023734.jpg
Publié le 18/06 à 11:10
Une victoire de la droite moins large que prévue

Si l'UMP a la majorité absolue à l'Assemblée, la vague bleue annoncée par les sondages n'a pas eu lieu

S'il a les mains libres pour gouverner, le parti de Nicolas Sarkozy perd néanmoins 41 sièges par rapport à 2002 (avec 312 sièges sur les 577 de l'Assemblée) et enregistre une défaite symbolique : celle d'Alain Juppé.

Avec 187 sièges, le PS, lui, gagne une cinquantaine de sièges et peut estimer avoir limité les dégâts.

Les résultats en sièges
Selon les résultats définitifs publiés dimanche soir, l'UMP remporte 312 sièges (+ 4 apparentés et 2 dissidents), le PS 187 (et 3 dissidents), le Nouveau Centre (soutenu par l'UMP) 21, le PCF 15 (et 1 dissident), Divers gauche 4, Divers droite 9, Radicaux de gauche 8, Verts 4, MoDem 5, MPF 2.

Il faut un minimum de 20 élus pour former un siège : dans la configuration actuelle et sans alliance nouvelle, seuls l'UMP, le PS et le Nouveau Centre (ex-UDF ralliés à l'UMP) sont en mesure d'en constituer.

La défaite de Juppé entraîne un remaniement de taille au gouvernement
L'UMP essuie un échec de taille avec la défaite à Bordeaux du numéro 2 du gouvernement, Alain Juppé, qui a annoncé qu'il quitterait dès lundi le gouvernement ( le Premier ministre François Fillon avait annoncé que les ministres ayant échoué à la législative devaient démissionner), obligeant à un important remaniement.

Le second tour a également apporté d'autres surprises avec d'autres défaites marquante pour l'UMP : Renaud Donnedieu de Vabres, ancien ministre de la Culture, ne retrouve pas son siège de député d'Indre-et-Loire, les maires de Caen (Calvados), Brigitte Le Brethon, et de Laval (Mayenne) François d'Aubert sont eux aussi battus. Même chose pour Alain Marsaud, qui doit céder son siège en Haute-Loire. En Lot-et-Garonne, la droite, qui détenait les trois circonscriptions, a perdu un siège dans la 3ème, où le juge parisien anti-terroriste Jean-Louis Bruguière a été battu par son challenger socialiste et maire de Villeneuve-sur-Lot Jérôme Cahuzac (52,29%). Enfin, cuisant revers pour Alain Carignon qui rate son retour à Grenoble, écrasé par la socialiste Geneviève Fioraso, avec 63,03% des voix. Et échec pour le médiatique avocat Arno Klarsfeld, qui n'a pas su, malgré sa proximité revendiquée avec Nicolas Sarkozy, garder à la droite la 8ème circonscription parisienne gagnée par la socialiste Sandrine Mazetier.

De quoi faire grincer les dents de ténors de la majorité : Renaud Dutreil, ancien ministre et élu à Reims, a ainsi affirmé que Jean-Louis Borloo, ministre de l'Economie, allait "devoir s'expliquer" sur le projet de TVA sociale, "une erreur majeure de communication" qui a selon lui fait perdre "beaucoup de voix" à l'UMP.

La présence renforcée à gauche a suscité un commentaire de François Fillon, selon lequel la majorité "respectera l'opposition et renforcera ses droits".

Rupture au PS
Autre surprise : Ségolène Royal a annoncé lundi matin sur France Inter qu'elle était séparée de son compagnon, François Hollande, premier secrétaire du Parti socialiste, sans d'ailleurs donner la date de cette rupture. L'information, contenue dans un livre qui paraît mercredi, a été rendue publique dimanche soir. L'annonce a surpris les socialistes en pleine "guerre des chefs" pour le contrôle et la "refondation" du parti. Elle met toutefois fin aux spéculations sur l'état d'un couple qui affichait de plus en plus ses divergences politiques.

Le PS, qui avait appelé au "sursaut" des électeurs pour éviter une "vague bleue" évite la déroute et gagne même des sièges par rapport à l'Assemblée sortante, dans laquelle il avait 149 députés (contre 359 députés UMP).

Le chef du PS François Hollande, tout en reconnaissant la victoire de l'UMP, s'est félicité, comme les autres responsables du parti, du score des socialistes. "La vague bleue annoncée qui devait déferler n'a pas eu lieu", a-t-il déclaré. Mais la droite "a la quasi-totalité du pouvoir", a-t-il reconnu.

Le Parti communiste (15 élus) fait mieux que prévu mais devrait perdre son groupe parlementaire (20 élus sont nécessaires). Les Verts n'auraient de leur côté que quatre élus.

Le Front national n'aura aucun élu. François Bayrou, troisième homme de la présidentielle (18,57%), a été réélu député, mais son nouveau parti, le MoDem, n'aura que quatre députés.

Sous la Ve République, il est exceptionnel qu'un second tour inverse la tendance du premier. Un seul cas depuis 1958 : le deuxième tour des législatives de 1978, où la gauche donnée largement victorieuse après le premier tour, avait finalement connu la défaite une semaine plus tard, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing gardant la majorité.

Les sondages se sont trompés
Ce retournement de l'électorat n'avait été pronostiqué par aucun institut de sondage, malgré une légère progression de la gauche dans les dernières projections. Ce rebond de la gauche est d'autant plus surprenant qu'il intervient sur fond de dissensions étalées au grand jour au PS, et de batailles pour prendre la tête du parti -Ségolène Royal a d'ailleurs confirmé sa candidature.

Une participation mitigée
Toutefois, le fort taux d'abstention, qui s'établit à 40,01%, établit la relative désaffection des Français pour ce scrutin.

La gauche, dont on annonçait une sévère défaite, retrouve au contraire le sourire, gagnant plus d'une cinquantaine de sièges. Le PCF, qui perd son groupe à l'Assemblée (20 députés requis pour former un groupe), limite les dégâts avec quinze sièges. Quant aux Verts, ils restent stables, gagnant un siège pour passer de 3 à 4.

Le MoDem, qui devait jouer les arbitres dans une trentaine de circonscriptions, n'était présents au second tour que dans 6 bras de fer, dont le fief de François Bayrou dans les Pyrénées Atlantiques. Il est réélu et son parti centriste obtient quatre sièges.

Le nouveau président Nicolas Sarkozy a désormais la majorité qu'il réclamait au Parlement - le Sénat étant déjà contrôlé par la droite - pour mettre en oeuvre son programme.

Le Parlement sera convoqué en session extraordinaire dès le 26 juin pour voter les premiers textes emblématiques de la volonté de "rupture" affichée par le chef de l'Etat.

Mais sa victoire est sans doute moins éclatante qu'il ne l'avait espéré, au vu de l'état de grâce dont il bénéficie dans les enquêtes d'opinion. Thème majeur de la campagne de l'entre-deux tours vivement dénoncé par la gauche, l'annonce d'un projet de "TVA sociale" (qui augmenterait la TVA de 5 points) plutôt impopulaire auprès des Français, a sans doute pesé sur ce scrutin.

Dimanche soir, à l'issue du second tour, le Premier ministre François Fillon a déclaré que la nouvelle majorité allait "remettre en cause les habitudes et les tabous qui brident notre pays". "Le temps des élections est fini, le temps du rassemblement est arrivé, le temps de l'action a commencé", a-t-il ajouté.


http://elections.france2.fr/legislatives/2007/une/31993179-fr.php

EDIT:I forgot say that the UMP has actually less seats than before the election.

[Anthony]

Where is everyone?There was a big surprise in the results.The right didn't win as many seats as they were predicted to win:

http://medias.francetv.fr/bibl/url_images/2007/06/18/image_32023734.jpg


http://elections.france2.fr/legislatives/2007/une/31993179-fr.php

I saw that the turnout was about 60% (as it was in the first round) but I wonder if that does not tell the real story. The right won over 100 seats (between the UMP, NC and MPF) in the first round outright -- this probably meant that a lot of conservatives stayed home -- the conservatives in the districts with winners of course, but also those who figured the election was essentially over. The left on the other hand, was probably quite motivated to turn out given the polls showing a 400+ seat advantage to the right.

If anything, this election has saved the Socialist Party from death. During the presidential election, there was some talk that the right wing of the Socialist Party might join with the Democratic Movement to form a new social democratic party, with the left wing of the Socialists joining the left parties to form a new left-wing party under the boy Trotskeyite.

Considering that the Socialists actually gained seats and the DM showed itself as essentially irrelevant, I think that idea is on hold for now.

Also, Royal has, shall we say, an interesting family. Her dad was an army officer (she was born in Dakar). At 19 she sued him for alimony. Her brother is the person suspected of blowing up the Rainbow Warrior. Her cousin ran for the National Assembly for the National Front. She is also separating from her, um, what exactly do you call someone when not married? "Ummer?" Partner I guess, who currently heads the PS (in any event, she is waaayyy to hot for him). She is also considering running for chair of the PS.

Must all make for interesting family get togethers.

[Douai]

If anything, this election has saved the Socialist Party from death. During the presidential election, there was some talk that the right wing of the Socialist Party might join with the Democratic Movement to form a new social democratic party, with the left wing of the Socialists joining the left parties to form a new left-wing party under the boy Trotskeyite.

Considering that the Socialists actually gained seats and the DM showed itself as essentially irrelevant, I think that idea is on hold for now.

Also, Royal has, shall we say, an interesting family. Her dad was an army officer (she was born in Dakar). At 19 she sued him for alimony. Her brother is the person suspected of blowing up the Rainbow Warrior. Her cousin ran for the National Assembly for the National Front. She is also separating from her, um, what exactly do you call someone when not married? "Ummer?" Partner I guess, who currently heads the PS (in any event, she is waaayyy to hot for him). She is also considering running for chair of the PS.

Must all make for interesting family get togethers.
I also heard that the party was considering moving to the center-left.I found that development between Royal and Hollande pretty interesting.They probably had disagreements about the direction of the PS and the defeat against Sarkozy.Supposely, Hollande will step down very soon.The election results gave the PS something to be happy about, but the party looks like it is still in really bad shape right now.

[Anthony]

I also heard that the party was considering moving to the center-left.I found that development between Royal and Hollande pretty interesting.They probably had disagreements about the direction of the PS and the defeat against Sarkozy.

Maybe, but I think it is just that she is waaayyy to hot for him.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Hollande_francois.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/S%C3%A9gol%C3%A8ne_Royal_-_Royal_%26_Zapatero%27s_meeting_in_Toulouse_for_the_2007_French_presidential_election_0276_2007-04-19_cropped.JPG/200px-S%C3%A9gol%C3%A8ne_Royal_-_Royal_%26_Zapatero%27s_meeting_in_Toulouse_for_the_2007_French_presidential_election_0276_2007-04-19_cropped.JPG

[Nanbawan]

Maybe, but I think it is just that she is waaayyy to hot for him.



He had four kids with her nonetheless. Bravo François ! :D

Are we seeing the telenovelazation© of French politics (if we think about the sarkozy couple too) ? :eek:

The journalists have to evoke that matter of course yet it's really annoying that they can't help conducting themselves as tabloid reporter in the wake of such events. Of course, in that context the Royal - Hollande break up has some political relevance in the sense that it concerns the party leadership but politics are not mainly about people news titles.

Note 1 : Is Jim Bitterman from CNNinternational really reporting from France ? Yesterday, he said that this affair would be front page in tabloids all over the country...Except there are no tabloids in France with maybe Le Parisien/Aujourd'hui en france coming the closest to filling that vacuum but still...Well, they did make a big front cover photo on the Royal/Hollande break up ; you had to look in a lil square to see wether they'd deal with the election or not...What a piece of shit newspaper !

Note 2 : I thought about you yesterday...OK, let's clarify straight away ! During the breton regional broadcast of France3 channel, one of the viewers asked exactly the same question as you did after the presidentials : "Why Brittany is now a stronghold since it was known for being conservative ?"

The answer was pretty close to the one I tried to give you : the weight of the urban areas compared to the traditional countryside. More especially the fact that youing urban Breton voters are strongly in favor of the Left. I can vouch for that from my college years in Rennes even if there's also a vigorous yet small in numbers far right and monarchist movement.

Actually, I realise that I merely have really conservative friends except some doctor daughters...So, if you're conservative and not a hot chick, you're probably not my friend ! :D

[Nanbawan]

The Royal holland break up was hardly a big surprise...

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x294ce_mrmrs-royal

[Anthony]

He had four kids with her nonetheless. Bravo François ! :D

Are we seeing the telenovelazation© of French politics (if we think about the sarkozy couple too) ? :eek:

This is crazier than anything that has happened here on that front. But I thought the French were more acceptiong of politicians and their affairs?

The journalists have to evoke that matter of course yet it's really annoying that they can't help conducting themselves as tabloid reporter in the wake of such events. Of course, in that context the Royal - Hollande break up has some political relevance in the sense that it concerns the party leadership but politics are not mainly about people news titles.

Note 1 : Is Jim Bitterman from CNNinternational really reporting from France ? Yesterday, he said that this affair would be front page in tabloids all over the country...Except there are no tabloids in France with maybe Le Parisien/Aujourd'hui en france coming the closest to filling that vacuum but still...Well, they did make a big front cover photo on the Royal/Hollande break up ; you had to look in a lil square to see wether they'd deal with the election or not...What a piece of shit newspaper !

Not a clue, though I suppose he was using tabloid to mean newspaper.

Note 2 : I thought about you yesterday...

Thanks - I had a nice Father's day

OK, let's clarify straight away ! During the breton regional broadcast of France3 channel, one of the viewers asked exactly the same question as you did after the presidentials : "Why Brittany is now a stronghold since it was known for being conservative ?"

The answer was pretty close to the one I tried to give you : the weight of the urban areas compared to the traditional countryside. More especially the fact that youing urban Breton voters are strongly in favor of the Left. I can vouch for that from my college years in Rennes even if there's also a vigorous yet small in numbers far right and monarchist movement.

Actually, I realise that I merely have really conservative friends except some doctor daughters...So, if you're conservative and not a hot chick, you're probably not my friend ! :D

Well, I have been called many things, but "conservative hot chick" is not one of them!

[Nanbawan]

This is crazier than anything that has happened here on that front. But I thought the French were more acceptiong of politicians and their affairs?


I think we still are. It is big news and soap opera story used by the media to sell interest yet on a sheer moral POV, it's no big deal at all.

Actually, many people -me included- claim that they don't fu cking care ! Well, except the incidence that it will have on politics but nothing more...

[Nanbawan]

Well, I have been called many things, but "conservative hot chick" is not one of them!

Do not drag me in that area...:D

[Pierre-Henri]

This is crazier than anything that has happened here on that front. But I thought the French were more acceptiong of politicians and their affairs?


We are. Should I say: "we used to be" ? Personally, I don't care a single second about politicians private life. Most french citizens used to think like this, but things are unfortunately changing, and getting worse. Newspapers are looking for cheap scoops, politicians themselves use their families more often in their campaign blurbs, and more and more citizens are thinking as if TV and fame were the Alpha and the Omega of human life. In short, were sliding on the same slope than America, only with a few years delay.

O tempora ! O mores ! :(

[guignol]

In short, were sliding on the same slope than America, only with a few years delay. O tempora ! O mores ! :(a few? more like 20 but decreasing continually. and for more than just TV...

http://www.assietteaubeurre.org/numero_un/numero_unbis_jpg/numero_un_p4_5_q22.jpg

[guignol]

that post was conceived to be better, with a "then" (very classic) marianne, a "now" (deneuve) marianne and the above pic as "soon"... but the pics didn't paste cleanly, you only saw a jumble of links.

nitpickers may point out that the present marianne is laetitia casta, but that proves my point. LC may not be a cow in absolute terms, but compared to la deneuve... and the drive to make melissa theuriau our next marianne proves P-H's point... that a speakerine be considered mariannable shows that news has become entertainment...

[Douai]

Fillon's new government:

Ministre d'État, Ministre de l'Écologie, du Développement et de l'Aménagement durables Jean-Louis Borloo (UMP-PR)
Ministre de l'Économie, des Finances et de l'Emploi Christine Lagarde (UMP)
Ministre de l'Intérieur, de l'Outre-mer et des Collectivités territoriales Michèle Alliot-Marie (UMP)
Ministre des Affaires étrangères et européennes Bernard Kouchner (ex-PS)
Ministre de l'Immigration, de l'Intégration, de l'Identité nationale et du Codéveloppement Brice Hortefeux (UMP)
Garde des Sceaux, Ministre de la Justice Rachida Dati (UMP)
Ministre de l'Agriculture et de la Pêche Michel Barnier (UMP)
Ministre du Travail, des Relations sociales et de la Solidarité Xavier Bertrand (UMP)
Ministre de l'Éducation nationale Xavier Darcos (UMP)
Ministre de l'Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche Valérie Pécresse (UMP)
Ministre de la Défense Hervé Morin (Nouveau Centre)
Ministre de la Santé, de la Jeunesse et des Sports Roselyne Bachelot-Narquin (UMP)
Ministre du Logement et de la Ville Christine Boutin (UMP)
Ministre de la Culture et de la Communication Christine Albanel (UMP)
Ministre du Budget, des Comptes publics et de la Fonction publique Eric Woerth (UMP)

http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gouvernement_Fran%C3%A7ois_Fillon_%282%29

[ilv2]

Even if the elections are over, the real fun is about to start.
Yesterday, François Fillon gave a general overview of the government's priorities in the coming years:

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/panorama/0,11-0@2-3224,32-931192,0.html

[Douai]

Is it just me or does François Fillon look pretty stressed out and tired now? I don't remember him looking so bad before he became premier ministre.