Dark Savante
23 Apr 2007, 12:51 PM
Rather than write out another lengthy opener, I thought it easier to just quote the old one and comment on that. It makes for interesting reading.
Fixtures
As important as the clean slate is, the fixture list and the title run-in. Most people point towards all the big games in a run-in. To me, they are not the most important thing, at all, in fact they aren’t even the second most important.
What is the most important thing to do in a run-in is beat the teams you are ‘supposed’ to beat if you have genuine ambitions of winning the league. There are only 9pts to play for amongst ‘big 4’ sides. Outside of that there are 39pts to play for. As I said in the preview of the season thread it is inside these matches that your final standing will be determined. The ‘big 4’ put small dents into an ocean liner, 9pts that you can’t lay claim to.. you may even lose all 3 games, but, that is still only 9pts. If you’re picking up wins at all of your bogey teams and your aways…as well as the home games, those 9pts from the big 4 aren’t that important. They are the games the fans get excited about, but in the end if you beat Arsenal and Liverpool and draw with Chelsea and in the mean time have lost to Boro, Citeh and drawn with Blackburn, it counts for nothing. Many fans fall into the ‘Sky trap’ where they big up the big fixtures as if they are cup finals. They are not. They are 50/50 games that get you up because they are games you go into without being able to call anything – that’s what gives you a buzz… but downplay those vastly more important 39pts at your peril.
Here are the remaining fixtures for both teams:
Man Utd :
13 Jan (H) Aston Villa
21 Jan (A) Arsenal
31 Jan (H) Watford
4 Feb (A) Spurs
10 Feb (H) Charlton
24 Feb (A) Fulham
3 Mar (A) Liverpool
17 Mar (H) Bolton
31 Mar (H) Blackburn
7 Apr (A) Portsmouth
10 Apr (H) Sheff Utd
14 Apr (A) Chelsea
21 Apr (H) Boro
28 Apr (A) Everton
5 May (A) City
13 May (H) West Ham
8 Homes, 8 Aways.
Chelsea :
13 Jan (H) Wigan
20 Jan (A) Liverpool
31 Jan (H) Blackburn
3 Feb (A) Charlton
10 Feb (H) Boro
24 Feb (A) City
3 Mar (A) Portsmouth
17 Mar (H) Sheff Utd
31 Mar (A) Watford
7 Apr (H) Spurs
9 Apr (A) West Ham
14 Apr (H) Man Utd
21 Apr (A) Newcastle
28 Apr (H) Bolton
May 5 (A) Arse
May 13 (H) Everton
8 Homes, 8 Aways.
Omitting the ‘big 4’ for both sides and looking at bogey teams via history or plain old style of play, you will see that Citeh, Portsmouth and Everton away and Bolton, Blackburn, Boro and West Ham at home are big, big games for us. 21pts > 9pts. Win these fixtures and get results in most of the others whilst losing a couple, and we win the title, imo.
For Chelsea you have Blackburn, Spurs, Bolton and Everton at home and Portsmouth, West Ham, and Newcastle away. 21pts > 9pts.
I have to say that from Apr 7th straight through till the last game for both teams, the fixtures are incredibly tough. The point about a clean slate has to be acknowledged AFAIC. The potential for dropping points in those last 6 games in a row is huge. May 5th is a title decider (if everything isn’t sorted by then) and you can bet both opposing teams will do absolutely everything in their power to stop the title challengers.
I won’t do the wins, draws, losses thing that people are wont to do, as if they haven’t learnt that this game is so topsy turvy that calling results really doesn’t make them so. I’m not dismissing the teams I didn’t mention as problem sides, but traditionally and style-wise we have a history with most of the ones I mentioned and they’ve shown in the past they can consistently take points off us, title-run or no.
Probably the scariest and most poignant I guess. The games cited, the ones we have a history of having a tough time in, have again done us, in part.
Listed:
away
Citeh - Not played
Portsmouth - Lost
Everton – Not played
0/3pts thus far
home
Bolton – Won, emphatically.
Blackburn – Won, emphatically.
Boro – drawn.(should have been a loss)
West Ham – Not played.
7/9pts so far.
It’s not bad going and we’ve done well. We simply must win both the aways we have coming up at Everton and Citeh. Needing a result at home to clinch the title is favourable.
Chelsea
Listed:
home
Blackburn - won
Spurs - won
Bolton – not played
Everton – not played
6/6pts
away
Portsmouth - won
West Ham – won, emphatically.
Newcastle - draw
7/9pts
We have 3 crunch games left and one big 4 game remaining, whilst they have 2, plus 2 big 4 games.
It is extremely well balanced and as stated the last run of games is going to decide it all. Nail biting stuff.
Remaining Games for both sides (affecting league only)
Them
25th April Liverpool(H) - CL semi-final 1st leg
28th April Bolton(H) EPL
1st May Liverpool(A) - CL semi-final 2nd leg
6th May Arse(A) EPL
9th May Utd(H) EPL
13th May Everton(H) EPL
Us
Tue 24 Apr (H) Milan - CL semi-final 1st leg
Sat 28 Apr (A) Everton
Wed 2 May (A) Milan - CL semi-final 2nd leg
Sat 5 May (A) City
Wed 9 May (A) Chelsea
Sun 13 May (H) West Ham
Realism
Both teams will drop points in places where people think they won’t. I said to Charley before the Christmas fixtures it was folly to presume games were cut and shut for Chelsea before they’d played them. Charley said the only place Chelsea were likely to drop points was Liverpool As we’ve seen over Chrimbo, this couldn’t be further from what happened. It’ll probably happen to us somewhere down the line as well, and that’s why we shouldn’t talk about games being bankers. The points aren’t ours until we’ve taken them. Every team we play see us as their cup final – they’ll give it 110% against us, and that will see us drop points where we ‘shouldn’t’ Until Chelsea steady the ship, teams are going to go for their throats and no game of theirs is a forgone conclusion until the final whistle blows and they have the 3pts wrapped up. I think those of us who have been through numerous campaigns are fully aware of the twists and turns along the way. It is not the end of the world when you drop points. You’ll rue it more if your rival gains from it, but it works both ways and it will continue to do so. No team has a God-given right to points.
I would hope people that see games as forgone conclusions have had a tonic these past few months. Us dropping points before ‘the bridge’ should have always been the concern, this focus on the ‘Sky climax’ game led to a lot of people taking their eye of the actual ball and overlooking opponents along the way. For myself, I have always been worried about the run of games we are in – boro, Everton, Citeh – way more than ‘the bridge’ and I still am.
Chelsea have also shown that even drones feel pressure and it will only accumulate from now on. Those bogey fixtures listed, they still have a few to play outside of the ‘big 4’ games. If they can win them all, I’d have to say fair play because combining that with the CL is a huge ask.
From now on, the dropping of points from either side in the remaining fixtures should not be a surprise.
Europe
You would have to be blind to not see that the stupid 4-2-2-2 put in place by Mourinho is geared more towards Europe than the PL. It has cost them time and again and it will continue to do so. For us, it is perfect for them to remain in Europe until the latter stages of the CL. Their focus is more on Europe than the PL, imo and the further they go into the comp, the more they will focus on it. I also think that if they are in some huge 2-legger against a top side in the CL SF, they will rest key players in the league. They have a stupid squad to pick from, but not many who are comfortable in this league, and with the way their players are used, quite a few of them are not ready to be thrust into must-win end of season games.
As for us.. whilst I don’t wish us out of Europe, I don’t think we’ll be in it by the latter stages. This means we get to focus solely on the league. This could prove vital during the run-in.
If we are still in Europe… I’ll be surprised, I’ll also think that hands more cards to Chelsea then to us. Our squad is not built for multiple trophy challenges this season. We’ve barely got the squad for the full league campaign without adding on extra problems.
Hmm… surprised? Would’ve been if we had gotten to where we are without any system for Europe, but the Roma game forced change and brought with it a defined system that made even the most staunch of us who doubted this team in Europe, believe, foolhardy or not…the folly of fans ain’t it, that belief? The bugger that it is.
Not sure who it affects the most anymore. They are desperate for that trophy, more than us actually, and as such, it splits their objective straight down the middle. The war they will play against Liverpool over the next 10days could destroy them absolutely and see them lose both the CL and the league in one fell swoop. The way things are right now for them and the knife edge so many things rest on means that ‘the untouchables’ (and Mourinho’s mistake of not balancing his players better) are going to have to play every single game in both the league and the CL. If Liverpool give them as much of a torrid time as I think they will (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11336654&postcount=241) then this means the league game in-between the fixtures (Bolton) may have to take a back-seat because whilst you can say many things about the scallies, at their own place, on a European night, they can give any team in the world a spanking and Mourinho’s lot are going to have to be fit and ready for that game because it will be all guns blazing, high octane stuff.
The potential for injuries and an incredible surplus of fatigue for them over the next 3games is massive. A full thunder all-English CL tie with Bolotn (of all sides) betwixt desperately needing points? And to make matters worse for them on the other side of the CL tie awaits an Arsenal side who have a manager who loathes Mourinho even more than he despises Fergie and will fire them up for that game. Like I said, if they can come through that unscathed then there has to be some credit given because that is a nightmare set of fixtures topped off with our game against them.
As for us, things are a little different. The AC tie is one we can’t be surprised to lose given the circumstances with the backline. The games against AC, whilst tough and tiring, will not and can not come close to match a full-blooded all English grudge match that has scores to settle that have been building to this apex over two years. Milan may put on a clinic, but they aren’t the type of team where you think contact injuries will accrue. If a player pulls up with a strain etc, it is par for the course, but even Milan’s meanest (Gattuso) is a fair and honest player who rarely leaves anyone in a crumpled heap from a bad tackle. I think we will come out of both games drained, but I’m hopeful of no more injuries and nowhere the fatigue I expect Chelsea to have. Everton away is a nasty, nasty fixture, but fortunately for us AJ is not likely to play and they are a bit sketchy right now. It’s a horrible fixture but I wouldn’t trade it for there despite the clinic we’ve put on Bolton this season. The Citeh game will be nasty, injuries are possible there. But again, rather them than Arsenal away. In all 4 of the upcoming ties both teams have I would rather ours than theirs. An English SF just screams war. One against an Italian side screams.. cappuccino or something. :)
Cups & Priorities
Ties in with the Europe section above. I think both teams would be willing to sacrifice the FA Cup if push came to shove. The FA Cup is an important trophy…for British players and managers… I think amongst foreigners it is a trophy in decline. Wenger has shown little respect for the competition and I don’t think Jose holds it in the esteem he should. SAF is fully aware of the prestige and importance of the FA Cup, and because of that I think we’ll play the competition full strength if we get to the QF stage and this could be the counter-balance to Chelsea in Europe… I again don’t wish us out of this competition, but without a doubt the PL is the top priority for me, and I think for most supporters this season and if we had to forgo the cups for it, I’m sure most would not have a problem with that. I just wonder what Fergie thinks to that end. He is a firm upholder of tradition, and for that reason I think he’d not focus solely on the PL, perhaps believing we’ll come good in two from three…
Well the FA cup is an irrelevance now. But where does Jose go from here? His team is set up to win the CL, not the PL. He has no Essien or Ballack – a player brought in solely to win the CL - for the first leg against Liverpool, his squad, whilst infinitely superior to anyone else’s is tiring and spread them thinly over two competitions may cost them both! Considering the pressure on him for that CL he has to make sure his players don’t fancy it over the league. It’s a crapshoot.
For us, I’m sure Fergie wants the CL more than the league, but the injuries may have tempered him somewhat. The players have come out repeatedly and said they want the league and honestly believe the injuries have given us a ready-made excuse that would appease the players, fans and manager if we were knocked out whilst not affecting morale for the league.
Things are so close now for both sides, but conversely, they are far out of reach as well and stumbling on the minutest of details could see either side crumble and seasons worth of cards come tumbling down. It really is that fine a line.
Away Games
Many fans don’t seem to comprehend how hard it is to go to someone else’s backyard and take the points. When we come to town games get sold out, our aways are supported by the more hardcore of followers, thus we create an atmosphere which is second to none for aways, in turn, this can often get the home support more up for the game than they would be. Away games present a problem at the turn of the New Year. Teams have something to fight for, CL spots, Uefa spots, relegation battles, and I personally believe that teams outside of the top 6 are more focused on their tasks then they are at the start of the season.
There’s 24pts to play for for both teams from now till the end of the season on aways. I’d think if we can get 17pts from that, we’ve done very well. 20+ for either side is title-worthy.
In terms of home games both clubs are very strong and I would expect us to claim at least 85% of the points on offer. Aways are going to be more decisive than home games.
Everton
Citeh
Vs.
Arsenal
Which would you take? Chelsea have done very well away. They’ve claimed 16/21 points available away from home with only Arsenal left to play whilst collecting the maximum 15/15 at home.
We, on the other hand have claimed 19/21 points at home and 9/15 away. We have 3aways left to play and one more home game. I maintain that two of those aways will decide the title.
As clearly shown, it is away that both teams have dropped points and it’s on us to complete and compete for 6pts out of those 9 available away. The home game is far from a formality, but if we couldn’t win that with the title on the line I think heads would roll.
Injuries
We get key ones and we’re stuffed. Chelsea, aside from the keepers should have no excuse here, but they do. Drogba is so important to them right now. For me, Joe Cole is their biggest loss, not Terry, whose absence is being grossly overstated by the poorness of his replacement ‘the cannibal’ who is making Silvestre look like Paolo Maldini these days. The complaints about their RB slot are ridiculous. Real teams work through such minor issues as best they can, Chelsea want to be seen as a real team, and they have rb’s better than O’Shea as cover.. yet there’s all this fuss and the talk of spending obscene amounts to ‘fix’ the problem.
Without a doubt Petr Cech is a massive out for them, one that has cost them points because he has been rock solid for them. They may well rush him back too early, which could disrupt them further. It could also be the case that he struggles for form or is psychologically scarred and fearful of going for certain kinds of balls after the collision that took him out in the first place. I don’t think it wise to re-introduce him halfway through a campaign, the downside could be incredible. The other hand is that he could have the fortitude to slot in and perform as if he was never out of the game.. either way, that’s a huge gamble to take when you have so many key games coming up.
Terry returning will give them organisation at the back and stability, but he’s not close to the titan he’s being made out to be in his absence, Jose just made an awful buy in Boulahrouz, who makes Terry look like superman in comparison… I sincerely hope they don’t land Campbell during Terry’s absence. Him playing like he is this season, with Makelele in front is no worse than Terry.
Rio, Vidic, Scholes, Ronaldo and VDS are the players who have proven themselves to be in-expendable for us this campaign. It’s vital they stay fit as they are the crux of this season’s challenge at this moment in time and we don’t have replacements for any of them. I feel our striker rotation will soon be strong enough to cope for periods of time without Rooney-Saha, but not for long, mind..
One of the reasons it’d be beneficial to not be in the cups for us is the reduced wear and tear on the 1st xi, who as a unit, have been superb for us this season.
….. :mad: We simply have to cope as best we can with what’s left. I expect to see injuries pile up for Chelsea over the next 4games, as stated.
We can at least see the positive side in that our players will be coming back to the fore rested, angry and ready to perform. Depending on who and when Chelsea get their injuries it may well be too late for those players to even come back in time… assuming of course that there will be injuries for them.
History
Some of the things said about us and our form this year has been bizarre. We’ve always been a team who perform better in the 2nd half of a season under Fergie. It is this part of the season where we traditionally put together our biggest run of wins of the season. Not to say we don’t stand a chance of slipping up, but this notion that Manchester United are playing at the limits of their capability and that the only way is down from here is absolute rubbish.
Rooney, Carrick, Giggs, Saha all have gears to go up from what they are giving the team right now. Ronaldo traditionally plays his very best football after New Year. Gary Neville has not been performing to the standards I expect of him. The only players we have who have had a concerted period of time playing well are: Vidic, Scholes, Ronaldo and Giggs/Rio/VDS to varying degree. We haven’t hit our Bolton away heights for a long, long time now, and that is what I’d consider to be where we’d be at when in full swing.
Not to knock them unintentionally, but Chelsea’s lack of history as a title contending side is such that we can’t say how they’ll react to the rigours of being behind and appearing vulnerable to the league at large. This is their first test of mettle under Mourinho as a side with actual injury problems and not having everything their own way, it’s anybodies guess to see how they’ll respond under the circumstances presented.
I hope the myth about us was dispelled a long time ago…. It is still absurd to think people thought that what we did before January was the limit of this teams powers… it was far from it as has been clearly demonstrated.
Chelsea have shown that they are a resilient and stubborn team under Mourinho whether leading the league by a distance or chasing a team for a time. They’ve been fortunate at times to collect pts at the death, but it’s nothing that teams with strong fortitude don’t do so I wouldn’t call it flukey.
I just pray that this side of ours can prove itself truly historical in carrying us through to the league title. Whatever else we could get would be a bonus.
Managers
This is an interesting section for me. Jose is a boy compared to SAF. He knows nothing but success regarding this league and he’s not used to being in a compromising situation. SAF on the other hand, has seen it all, been on both sides of the coin, throwing a good lead away, catching up a team with an apparent unassailable lead. His counter-comments to Mourinho’s attempts at mind-games have been honed over time, and Jose will have to dig deep to really rattle the old fox.
With all the money and the bench Mourinho has, it’s hard to tell what makes Jose tick. His substitutions are ones any sane, half knowledgeable fan could make most of the time and it really remains to be seen what he is like in a ‘crisis’ and whether he will work through it with good man-management or just sidestep it altogether and buy his way out of his current situation. This is all new ground as far as Mourinho and England are concerned. At times before Chrimbo he looked close to ‘doing a Keegan’ on several occasions, suggesting that the pressure was getting to him. Only time will tell with regards to the chap and how he handles all of this.
I think ours is the manager to have in any such close title run. His experience could well prove absolutely invaluable.
Jose is cracking. He hasn’t gone totally Keegan, but he’s been incredibly close on a number of occasions. Today’s outburst was just hilarious. I was with friends watching MOTD2 a dipper, a bitter, two Man Utd and a Crewe supporter and they were all in pieces laughing at the guy losing bits of his mind on national TV.
He does it for the right reasons, mind. Deflecting attention totally away from his charges with his cries about ‘the end of democracy if he’s not allowed to speak his mind.’ ^________^
Style of Play
Aside from the aesthetic polarity between the two sides there is one really important factor to consider here, outplaying sides is far more demoralising on the oppo and less demanding on your players then having to scramble for wins. My fear is they switch to the 4-3-3 which will optimise most of their side. In the 4-2-2-2 teams are always going to fancy their chances against Chelsea, certainly more so in that set-up then in the 4-3-3 where often they are defensively robust and extremely hard to break down whilst being offensively competent.
The run-in will be challenging not just for the teams left to play, but for how they play. There is a lot of width in a number of sides from Apr 7th onwards. Only Arsenal will play it truly narrow, and even then, that’s a totally different set of challenges and problems for them. I can’t see them sticking with that 4-2-2-2 unless it improves, vastly, before that time.
Our style is binary. A yes or a no. It either works and is successful or we look wasteful and naïve in it. No middle line, nothing to confuse and plenty to rue at FT with all the missed chances when it goes wrong. Is that good, is it bad? Don’t know really. What I do know is that winning 2 and losing 1 out of 3 is more beneficial than drawing 2 and winning the other 1. We always aim to win. Yes/No, On/off, 1/0, binary. Fortunately for us, the way we play conserves a lot of energy for the fact that in the league we are rarely defending for any length of time and once we get teams into the position where they accept we do have them on the backfoot, we camp in their half and get plenty of time for breathers that way, which lead me to the final point.
Fatigue
The way Chelsea play is absolutely exhausting. Can they keep that up all season long? Their game is based around pace, power and aggression. Can they play like that across four (three Carling cup isn’t so important) fronts all season long?
Towards the end of the season both teams are going to face sides who have already been knocked out of all the cups and will have sole focus on the league. If Chelsea are still in three competitions and are on for a treble, say, their ‘untouchables’ are in for a hell of a tough ride physically. As I said in the cups and Europe sections, if they have got their way (prioritising Europe and getting deep into the comp) then that core of players Mourinho seems to pile all his faith into, are going to have played somewhere between 50 and 60 games, each! When everyone hates you and is trying their damnedest to beat you and see you as a cup final, the sheer amount of games played is going to take its toll. At 34 will Makelele be able to cope with that? Can Essien keep going like the Duracell bunny? These were questions asked of us in ’99 and it was bloody tight. With the money spent, and the squad they have, getting deep into three competitions is the bare minimum requirement.
I expect us to not be in Europe by then and being out of the FA cup is a possibility as well. Our smaller squad of actual useable players could mean we also suffer from fatigue as well, but with the way we play and our onus on making the oppo work much harder than we do I think fatigue may affect us a lot less.
This is evident in both teams now. Running on close to empty with only the will and drive to succeed carrying tired bones is the order of the day. I do believe having a style of play can slow down the effect of fatigue a little. Making the ball do the work, having a uniform attack rather than one hero doing too much work, having a defence that is orderly and structured. All of it adds up. I think the way we play leaves us with more in the tank than them. A team that has the ball for the majority of the game is doing less running than one that doesn’t.
We tend to put teams to the sword wherever possible using the passing ability of our midfield and the guile of the runners in front of them. We are rarely industrious in attack, we rarely batter our way through a fort, rather we play around it which tires a team out, certainly, but it’s in a uniform way where the load is shared and fatigue is halved from what it could be.
I think Chelsea’s way of playing is extremely draining on key ‘untouchables’ Drogba, Lampard, Essien in particular are showing signs of tiredness. Not in great abundance, but they are nowhere near as lively now as they have been earlier in the season. The way Drogba is used also lends itself to taking a toll. He’s in for a torrid time in the next three games with all the knocks he’ll get it’ll be interesting to see if he has the mental strength to recompense for the physical duress. Of course, winning eases tiredness so the euphoria of a good CL result will boost them artificially I feel, for a while at least.
We’re also clearly beginning to flag, but it’s across the back and in the three veterans. Rooney, Ronaldo, Smith, Fletcher, Evra (when back) and Carrick are expected to carry a considerably brunt of the running now. Being younger, fresher and never having won a league title should see them geed up artificially as well.
Get to the end lads then there’s a whole summer to put your feet up!
Conclusion
All to play for – with a clean slate. The season restarted with the first fixture of ’07. Can we win the 2nd half? If we do we’ve won the league.
Still up in the air, isn’t it. Dammit. Whatever you think of them, their dogged determination is going to push us to the wire to win this league title if we are to do it.
Fixtures
As important as the clean slate is, the fixture list and the title run-in. Most people point towards all the big games in a run-in. To me, they are not the most important thing, at all, in fact they aren’t even the second most important.
What is the most important thing to do in a run-in is beat the teams you are ‘supposed’ to beat if you have genuine ambitions of winning the league. There are only 9pts to play for amongst ‘big 4’ sides. Outside of that there are 39pts to play for. As I said in the preview of the season thread it is inside these matches that your final standing will be determined. The ‘big 4’ put small dents into an ocean liner, 9pts that you can’t lay claim to.. you may even lose all 3 games, but, that is still only 9pts. If you’re picking up wins at all of your bogey teams and your aways…as well as the home games, those 9pts from the big 4 aren’t that important. They are the games the fans get excited about, but in the end if you beat Arsenal and Liverpool and draw with Chelsea and in the mean time have lost to Boro, Citeh and drawn with Blackburn, it counts for nothing. Many fans fall into the ‘Sky trap’ where they big up the big fixtures as if they are cup finals. They are not. They are 50/50 games that get you up because they are games you go into without being able to call anything – that’s what gives you a buzz… but downplay those vastly more important 39pts at your peril.
Here are the remaining fixtures for both teams:
Man Utd :
13 Jan (H) Aston Villa
21 Jan (A) Arsenal
31 Jan (H) Watford
4 Feb (A) Spurs
10 Feb (H) Charlton
24 Feb (A) Fulham
3 Mar (A) Liverpool
17 Mar (H) Bolton
31 Mar (H) Blackburn
7 Apr (A) Portsmouth
10 Apr (H) Sheff Utd
14 Apr (A) Chelsea
21 Apr (H) Boro
28 Apr (A) Everton
5 May (A) City
13 May (H) West Ham
8 Homes, 8 Aways.
Chelsea :
13 Jan (H) Wigan
20 Jan (A) Liverpool
31 Jan (H) Blackburn
3 Feb (A) Charlton
10 Feb (H) Boro
24 Feb (A) City
3 Mar (A) Portsmouth
17 Mar (H) Sheff Utd
31 Mar (A) Watford
7 Apr (H) Spurs
9 Apr (A) West Ham
14 Apr (H) Man Utd
21 Apr (A) Newcastle
28 Apr (H) Bolton
May 5 (A) Arse
May 13 (H) Everton
8 Homes, 8 Aways.
Omitting the ‘big 4’ for both sides and looking at bogey teams via history or plain old style of play, you will see that Citeh, Portsmouth and Everton away and Bolton, Blackburn, Boro and West Ham at home are big, big games for us. 21pts > 9pts. Win these fixtures and get results in most of the others whilst losing a couple, and we win the title, imo.
For Chelsea you have Blackburn, Spurs, Bolton and Everton at home and Portsmouth, West Ham, and Newcastle away. 21pts > 9pts.
I have to say that from Apr 7th straight through till the last game for both teams, the fixtures are incredibly tough. The point about a clean slate has to be acknowledged AFAIC. The potential for dropping points in those last 6 games in a row is huge. May 5th is a title decider (if everything isn’t sorted by then) and you can bet both opposing teams will do absolutely everything in their power to stop the title challengers.
I won’t do the wins, draws, losses thing that people are wont to do, as if they haven’t learnt that this game is so topsy turvy that calling results really doesn’t make them so. I’m not dismissing the teams I didn’t mention as problem sides, but traditionally and style-wise we have a history with most of the ones I mentioned and they’ve shown in the past they can consistently take points off us, title-run or no.
Probably the scariest and most poignant I guess. The games cited, the ones we have a history of having a tough time in, have again done us, in part.
Listed:
away
Citeh - Not played
Portsmouth - Lost
Everton – Not played
0/3pts thus far
home
Bolton – Won, emphatically.
Blackburn – Won, emphatically.
Boro – drawn.(should have been a loss)
West Ham – Not played.
7/9pts so far.
It’s not bad going and we’ve done well. We simply must win both the aways we have coming up at Everton and Citeh. Needing a result at home to clinch the title is favourable.
Chelsea
Listed:
home
Blackburn - won
Spurs - won
Bolton – not played
Everton – not played
6/6pts
away
Portsmouth - won
West Ham – won, emphatically.
Newcastle - draw
7/9pts
We have 3 crunch games left and one big 4 game remaining, whilst they have 2, plus 2 big 4 games.
It is extremely well balanced and as stated the last run of games is going to decide it all. Nail biting stuff.
Remaining Games for both sides (affecting league only)
Them
25th April Liverpool(H) - CL semi-final 1st leg
28th April Bolton(H) EPL
1st May Liverpool(A) - CL semi-final 2nd leg
6th May Arse(A) EPL
9th May Utd(H) EPL
13th May Everton(H) EPL
Us
Tue 24 Apr (H) Milan - CL semi-final 1st leg
Sat 28 Apr (A) Everton
Wed 2 May (A) Milan - CL semi-final 2nd leg
Sat 5 May (A) City
Wed 9 May (A) Chelsea
Sun 13 May (H) West Ham
Realism
Both teams will drop points in places where people think they won’t. I said to Charley before the Christmas fixtures it was folly to presume games were cut and shut for Chelsea before they’d played them. Charley said the only place Chelsea were likely to drop points was Liverpool As we’ve seen over Chrimbo, this couldn’t be further from what happened. It’ll probably happen to us somewhere down the line as well, and that’s why we shouldn’t talk about games being bankers. The points aren’t ours until we’ve taken them. Every team we play see us as their cup final – they’ll give it 110% against us, and that will see us drop points where we ‘shouldn’t’ Until Chelsea steady the ship, teams are going to go for their throats and no game of theirs is a forgone conclusion until the final whistle blows and they have the 3pts wrapped up. I think those of us who have been through numerous campaigns are fully aware of the twists and turns along the way. It is not the end of the world when you drop points. You’ll rue it more if your rival gains from it, but it works both ways and it will continue to do so. No team has a God-given right to points.
I would hope people that see games as forgone conclusions have had a tonic these past few months. Us dropping points before ‘the bridge’ should have always been the concern, this focus on the ‘Sky climax’ game led to a lot of people taking their eye of the actual ball and overlooking opponents along the way. For myself, I have always been worried about the run of games we are in – boro, Everton, Citeh – way more than ‘the bridge’ and I still am.
Chelsea have also shown that even drones feel pressure and it will only accumulate from now on. Those bogey fixtures listed, they still have a few to play outside of the ‘big 4’ games. If they can win them all, I’d have to say fair play because combining that with the CL is a huge ask.
From now on, the dropping of points from either side in the remaining fixtures should not be a surprise.
Europe
You would have to be blind to not see that the stupid 4-2-2-2 put in place by Mourinho is geared more towards Europe than the PL. It has cost them time and again and it will continue to do so. For us, it is perfect for them to remain in Europe until the latter stages of the CL. Their focus is more on Europe than the PL, imo and the further they go into the comp, the more they will focus on it. I also think that if they are in some huge 2-legger against a top side in the CL SF, they will rest key players in the league. They have a stupid squad to pick from, but not many who are comfortable in this league, and with the way their players are used, quite a few of them are not ready to be thrust into must-win end of season games.
As for us.. whilst I don’t wish us out of Europe, I don’t think we’ll be in it by the latter stages. This means we get to focus solely on the league. This could prove vital during the run-in.
If we are still in Europe… I’ll be surprised, I’ll also think that hands more cards to Chelsea then to us. Our squad is not built for multiple trophy challenges this season. We’ve barely got the squad for the full league campaign without adding on extra problems.
Hmm… surprised? Would’ve been if we had gotten to where we are without any system for Europe, but the Roma game forced change and brought with it a defined system that made even the most staunch of us who doubted this team in Europe, believe, foolhardy or not…the folly of fans ain’t it, that belief? The bugger that it is.
Not sure who it affects the most anymore. They are desperate for that trophy, more than us actually, and as such, it splits their objective straight down the middle. The war they will play against Liverpool over the next 10days could destroy them absolutely and see them lose both the CL and the league in one fell swoop. The way things are right now for them and the knife edge so many things rest on means that ‘the untouchables’ (and Mourinho’s mistake of not balancing his players better) are going to have to play every single game in both the league and the CL. If Liverpool give them as much of a torrid time as I think they will (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11336654&postcount=241) then this means the league game in-between the fixtures (Bolton) may have to take a back-seat because whilst you can say many things about the scallies, at their own place, on a European night, they can give any team in the world a spanking and Mourinho’s lot are going to have to be fit and ready for that game because it will be all guns blazing, high octane stuff.
The potential for injuries and an incredible surplus of fatigue for them over the next 3games is massive. A full thunder all-English CL tie with Bolotn (of all sides) betwixt desperately needing points? And to make matters worse for them on the other side of the CL tie awaits an Arsenal side who have a manager who loathes Mourinho even more than he despises Fergie and will fire them up for that game. Like I said, if they can come through that unscathed then there has to be some credit given because that is a nightmare set of fixtures topped off with our game against them.
As for us, things are a little different. The AC tie is one we can’t be surprised to lose given the circumstances with the backline. The games against AC, whilst tough and tiring, will not and can not come close to match a full-blooded all English grudge match that has scores to settle that have been building to this apex over two years. Milan may put on a clinic, but they aren’t the type of team where you think contact injuries will accrue. If a player pulls up with a strain etc, it is par for the course, but even Milan’s meanest (Gattuso) is a fair and honest player who rarely leaves anyone in a crumpled heap from a bad tackle. I think we will come out of both games drained, but I’m hopeful of no more injuries and nowhere the fatigue I expect Chelsea to have. Everton away is a nasty, nasty fixture, but fortunately for us AJ is not likely to play and they are a bit sketchy right now. It’s a horrible fixture but I wouldn’t trade it for there despite the clinic we’ve put on Bolton this season. The Citeh game will be nasty, injuries are possible there. But again, rather them than Arsenal away. In all 4 of the upcoming ties both teams have I would rather ours than theirs. An English SF just screams war. One against an Italian side screams.. cappuccino or something. :)
Cups & Priorities
Ties in with the Europe section above. I think both teams would be willing to sacrifice the FA Cup if push came to shove. The FA Cup is an important trophy…for British players and managers… I think amongst foreigners it is a trophy in decline. Wenger has shown little respect for the competition and I don’t think Jose holds it in the esteem he should. SAF is fully aware of the prestige and importance of the FA Cup, and because of that I think we’ll play the competition full strength if we get to the QF stage and this could be the counter-balance to Chelsea in Europe… I again don’t wish us out of this competition, but without a doubt the PL is the top priority for me, and I think for most supporters this season and if we had to forgo the cups for it, I’m sure most would not have a problem with that. I just wonder what Fergie thinks to that end. He is a firm upholder of tradition, and for that reason I think he’d not focus solely on the PL, perhaps believing we’ll come good in two from three…
Well the FA cup is an irrelevance now. But where does Jose go from here? His team is set up to win the CL, not the PL. He has no Essien or Ballack – a player brought in solely to win the CL - for the first leg against Liverpool, his squad, whilst infinitely superior to anyone else’s is tiring and spread them thinly over two competitions may cost them both! Considering the pressure on him for that CL he has to make sure his players don’t fancy it over the league. It’s a crapshoot.
For us, I’m sure Fergie wants the CL more than the league, but the injuries may have tempered him somewhat. The players have come out repeatedly and said they want the league and honestly believe the injuries have given us a ready-made excuse that would appease the players, fans and manager if we were knocked out whilst not affecting morale for the league.
Things are so close now for both sides, but conversely, they are far out of reach as well and stumbling on the minutest of details could see either side crumble and seasons worth of cards come tumbling down. It really is that fine a line.
Away Games
Many fans don’t seem to comprehend how hard it is to go to someone else’s backyard and take the points. When we come to town games get sold out, our aways are supported by the more hardcore of followers, thus we create an atmosphere which is second to none for aways, in turn, this can often get the home support more up for the game than they would be. Away games present a problem at the turn of the New Year. Teams have something to fight for, CL spots, Uefa spots, relegation battles, and I personally believe that teams outside of the top 6 are more focused on their tasks then they are at the start of the season.
There’s 24pts to play for for both teams from now till the end of the season on aways. I’d think if we can get 17pts from that, we’ve done very well. 20+ for either side is title-worthy.
In terms of home games both clubs are very strong and I would expect us to claim at least 85% of the points on offer. Aways are going to be more decisive than home games.
Everton
Citeh
Vs.
Arsenal
Which would you take? Chelsea have done very well away. They’ve claimed 16/21 points available away from home with only Arsenal left to play whilst collecting the maximum 15/15 at home.
We, on the other hand have claimed 19/21 points at home and 9/15 away. We have 3aways left to play and one more home game. I maintain that two of those aways will decide the title.
As clearly shown, it is away that both teams have dropped points and it’s on us to complete and compete for 6pts out of those 9 available away. The home game is far from a formality, but if we couldn’t win that with the title on the line I think heads would roll.
Injuries
We get key ones and we’re stuffed. Chelsea, aside from the keepers should have no excuse here, but they do. Drogba is so important to them right now. For me, Joe Cole is their biggest loss, not Terry, whose absence is being grossly overstated by the poorness of his replacement ‘the cannibal’ who is making Silvestre look like Paolo Maldini these days. The complaints about their RB slot are ridiculous. Real teams work through such minor issues as best they can, Chelsea want to be seen as a real team, and they have rb’s better than O’Shea as cover.. yet there’s all this fuss and the talk of spending obscene amounts to ‘fix’ the problem.
Without a doubt Petr Cech is a massive out for them, one that has cost them points because he has been rock solid for them. They may well rush him back too early, which could disrupt them further. It could also be the case that he struggles for form or is psychologically scarred and fearful of going for certain kinds of balls after the collision that took him out in the first place. I don’t think it wise to re-introduce him halfway through a campaign, the downside could be incredible. The other hand is that he could have the fortitude to slot in and perform as if he was never out of the game.. either way, that’s a huge gamble to take when you have so many key games coming up.
Terry returning will give them organisation at the back and stability, but he’s not close to the titan he’s being made out to be in his absence, Jose just made an awful buy in Boulahrouz, who makes Terry look like superman in comparison… I sincerely hope they don’t land Campbell during Terry’s absence. Him playing like he is this season, with Makelele in front is no worse than Terry.
Rio, Vidic, Scholes, Ronaldo and VDS are the players who have proven themselves to be in-expendable for us this campaign. It’s vital they stay fit as they are the crux of this season’s challenge at this moment in time and we don’t have replacements for any of them. I feel our striker rotation will soon be strong enough to cope for periods of time without Rooney-Saha, but not for long, mind..
One of the reasons it’d be beneficial to not be in the cups for us is the reduced wear and tear on the 1st xi, who as a unit, have been superb for us this season.
….. :mad: We simply have to cope as best we can with what’s left. I expect to see injuries pile up for Chelsea over the next 4games, as stated.
We can at least see the positive side in that our players will be coming back to the fore rested, angry and ready to perform. Depending on who and when Chelsea get their injuries it may well be too late for those players to even come back in time… assuming of course that there will be injuries for them.
History
Some of the things said about us and our form this year has been bizarre. We’ve always been a team who perform better in the 2nd half of a season under Fergie. It is this part of the season where we traditionally put together our biggest run of wins of the season. Not to say we don’t stand a chance of slipping up, but this notion that Manchester United are playing at the limits of their capability and that the only way is down from here is absolute rubbish.
Rooney, Carrick, Giggs, Saha all have gears to go up from what they are giving the team right now. Ronaldo traditionally plays his very best football after New Year. Gary Neville has not been performing to the standards I expect of him. The only players we have who have had a concerted period of time playing well are: Vidic, Scholes, Ronaldo and Giggs/Rio/VDS to varying degree. We haven’t hit our Bolton away heights for a long, long time now, and that is what I’d consider to be where we’d be at when in full swing.
Not to knock them unintentionally, but Chelsea’s lack of history as a title contending side is such that we can’t say how they’ll react to the rigours of being behind and appearing vulnerable to the league at large. This is their first test of mettle under Mourinho as a side with actual injury problems and not having everything their own way, it’s anybodies guess to see how they’ll respond under the circumstances presented.
I hope the myth about us was dispelled a long time ago…. It is still absurd to think people thought that what we did before January was the limit of this teams powers… it was far from it as has been clearly demonstrated.
Chelsea have shown that they are a resilient and stubborn team under Mourinho whether leading the league by a distance or chasing a team for a time. They’ve been fortunate at times to collect pts at the death, but it’s nothing that teams with strong fortitude don’t do so I wouldn’t call it flukey.
I just pray that this side of ours can prove itself truly historical in carrying us through to the league title. Whatever else we could get would be a bonus.
Managers
This is an interesting section for me. Jose is a boy compared to SAF. He knows nothing but success regarding this league and he’s not used to being in a compromising situation. SAF on the other hand, has seen it all, been on both sides of the coin, throwing a good lead away, catching up a team with an apparent unassailable lead. His counter-comments to Mourinho’s attempts at mind-games have been honed over time, and Jose will have to dig deep to really rattle the old fox.
With all the money and the bench Mourinho has, it’s hard to tell what makes Jose tick. His substitutions are ones any sane, half knowledgeable fan could make most of the time and it really remains to be seen what he is like in a ‘crisis’ and whether he will work through it with good man-management or just sidestep it altogether and buy his way out of his current situation. This is all new ground as far as Mourinho and England are concerned. At times before Chrimbo he looked close to ‘doing a Keegan’ on several occasions, suggesting that the pressure was getting to him. Only time will tell with regards to the chap and how he handles all of this.
I think ours is the manager to have in any such close title run. His experience could well prove absolutely invaluable.
Jose is cracking. He hasn’t gone totally Keegan, but he’s been incredibly close on a number of occasions. Today’s outburst was just hilarious. I was with friends watching MOTD2 a dipper, a bitter, two Man Utd and a Crewe supporter and they were all in pieces laughing at the guy losing bits of his mind on national TV.
He does it for the right reasons, mind. Deflecting attention totally away from his charges with his cries about ‘the end of democracy if he’s not allowed to speak his mind.’ ^________^
Style of Play
Aside from the aesthetic polarity between the two sides there is one really important factor to consider here, outplaying sides is far more demoralising on the oppo and less demanding on your players then having to scramble for wins. My fear is they switch to the 4-3-3 which will optimise most of their side. In the 4-2-2-2 teams are always going to fancy their chances against Chelsea, certainly more so in that set-up then in the 4-3-3 where often they are defensively robust and extremely hard to break down whilst being offensively competent.
The run-in will be challenging not just for the teams left to play, but for how they play. There is a lot of width in a number of sides from Apr 7th onwards. Only Arsenal will play it truly narrow, and even then, that’s a totally different set of challenges and problems for them. I can’t see them sticking with that 4-2-2-2 unless it improves, vastly, before that time.
Our style is binary. A yes or a no. It either works and is successful or we look wasteful and naïve in it. No middle line, nothing to confuse and plenty to rue at FT with all the missed chances when it goes wrong. Is that good, is it bad? Don’t know really. What I do know is that winning 2 and losing 1 out of 3 is more beneficial than drawing 2 and winning the other 1. We always aim to win. Yes/No, On/off, 1/0, binary. Fortunately for us, the way we play conserves a lot of energy for the fact that in the league we are rarely defending for any length of time and once we get teams into the position where they accept we do have them on the backfoot, we camp in their half and get plenty of time for breathers that way, which lead me to the final point.
Fatigue
The way Chelsea play is absolutely exhausting. Can they keep that up all season long? Their game is based around pace, power and aggression. Can they play like that across four (three Carling cup isn’t so important) fronts all season long?
Towards the end of the season both teams are going to face sides who have already been knocked out of all the cups and will have sole focus on the league. If Chelsea are still in three competitions and are on for a treble, say, their ‘untouchables’ are in for a hell of a tough ride physically. As I said in the cups and Europe sections, if they have got their way (prioritising Europe and getting deep into the comp) then that core of players Mourinho seems to pile all his faith into, are going to have played somewhere between 50 and 60 games, each! When everyone hates you and is trying their damnedest to beat you and see you as a cup final, the sheer amount of games played is going to take its toll. At 34 will Makelele be able to cope with that? Can Essien keep going like the Duracell bunny? These were questions asked of us in ’99 and it was bloody tight. With the money spent, and the squad they have, getting deep into three competitions is the bare minimum requirement.
I expect us to not be in Europe by then and being out of the FA cup is a possibility as well. Our smaller squad of actual useable players could mean we also suffer from fatigue as well, but with the way we play and our onus on making the oppo work much harder than we do I think fatigue may affect us a lot less.
This is evident in both teams now. Running on close to empty with only the will and drive to succeed carrying tired bones is the order of the day. I do believe having a style of play can slow down the effect of fatigue a little. Making the ball do the work, having a uniform attack rather than one hero doing too much work, having a defence that is orderly and structured. All of it adds up. I think the way we play leaves us with more in the tank than them. A team that has the ball for the majority of the game is doing less running than one that doesn’t.
We tend to put teams to the sword wherever possible using the passing ability of our midfield and the guile of the runners in front of them. We are rarely industrious in attack, we rarely batter our way through a fort, rather we play around it which tires a team out, certainly, but it’s in a uniform way where the load is shared and fatigue is halved from what it could be.
I think Chelsea’s way of playing is extremely draining on key ‘untouchables’ Drogba, Lampard, Essien in particular are showing signs of tiredness. Not in great abundance, but they are nowhere near as lively now as they have been earlier in the season. The way Drogba is used also lends itself to taking a toll. He’s in for a torrid time in the next three games with all the knocks he’ll get it’ll be interesting to see if he has the mental strength to recompense for the physical duress. Of course, winning eases tiredness so the euphoria of a good CL result will boost them artificially I feel, for a while at least.
We’re also clearly beginning to flag, but it’s across the back and in the three veterans. Rooney, Ronaldo, Smith, Fletcher, Evra (when back) and Carrick are expected to carry a considerably brunt of the running now. Being younger, fresher and never having won a league title should see them geed up artificially as well.
Get to the end lads then there’s a whole summer to put your feet up!
Conclusion
All to play for – with a clean slate. The season restarted with the first fixture of ’07. Can we win the 2nd half? If we do we’ve won the league.
Still up in the air, isn’t it. Dammit. Whatever you think of them, their dogged determination is going to push us to the wire to win this league title if we are to do it.