Élection présidentielle française de 2007 (French Presidential Election) Second Tour: Your Choice?

[Douai]

Who is your choice for the second tour of the presidential election?

[ilv2]

I weep for france.

damn the vote utile.

[Nanbawan]

damn the vote utile.

What could we do ? :(

Anyway, I was already depressed the day they chose Ségo at PS...

Damn de Villepin, why did you have to screw it like that with your CPE ! :mad:

Not that I would have voted for him but a DSK v Villepin would have been much more relaxing...

[Pierre-Henri]

Personally, I'd vote for Najat Belkacem (PS) without hesitation :

http://maximeverner.hautetfort.com/images/medium_photo1_article.2.jpg

She makes me regret I'm not a leftist anymore. Sigh.

[ilv2]

wow! :o

hmm, mais faut dire que c'est peut-etre du maquillage...
looks like she's one smart cookie though, Sciences-po!

What could we do ? :(

Anyway, I was already depressed the day they chose Ségo at PS...

Damn de Villepin, why did you have to screw it like that with your CPE !

Not that I would have voted for him but a DSK v Villepin would have been much more relaxing...

you're condemned to have a choice (Bayrou)! ;) I think Sarko would have found one way or another to muscle his way into the candidate spot, clearstream whatnot. but ugh the call for a vote utile worked like clockwork. 1% les verts! (although the score could be down to a crappy campaign)

"Une majorité de bayrouistes voteraient, au second tour, pour Nicolas Sarkozy
83 % des électeurs de Jean-Marie Le Pen disent vouloir donner leur voix à Nicolas Sarkozy contre 17 % à Ségolène Royal. " what?!
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-900774,0.html

[Pierre-Henri]

Vote utile ? You're joking. Even if you add the scores of all the different parties, the left took one of its worst beating in its whole history. You want to know why ? Then re-read all the things I've posted here on this topic.

Rule n° 1 : Pierre-Henri speaks the truth.
Rule n° 2 : Pierre-Henri is a visionary.
Rule n° 3 : I will always listen to Pierre-Henri.
Rule n° 4 : I will never ignore Pierre-Henri's posts and will always read them with the most carefull attentiveness.
Rule n° 5 : Pierre-Henri is an inspiration for us all.
Rule n° 5 : At every second of my life, I will cherish the day when Pierre-Henri decided to be a Bigsoccer regular.

[Nanbawan]

And yet, who was in charge those past five years, having a healthy majority in the Parliament as well ? Cunning political marketing also makes wonders...

[Pierre-Henri]

I don't think it's a political problem. It's not right vs left. In my opinion, the debate is more : stagnation vs mobility ; fossilization vs expansion.

The French have the feeling that their country is frozen, fossilized, unable to move forward. Once you consider this, you understand that the old right (Chirac-Villepin) and the PS are in the same boat : good ol' antiquated France. ENA. Administrative careers. Bureaucracy. Political traditions. More bureaucracy. Same old speeches about le-rôle-de-la-France-dans-le-monde. Same old empty sentences. And a little more of bureaucracy over the top.

Chirac, Raffarin, Villepin, Hollande, Royal... they all play the same tune. They're idealists, they talk about the modèle social, give big speeches about principles, but they are unable to see that this modèle social, in truth, is crumbling under its own weight. All those nice principles are nothing but theater. We don't have a modèle social, we have an insane and fossilized bureaucracy that fancies itself as the best-system-in-the-world (relax : I won't give the same examples once again).

Sarkozy played this card very well. He is not an énarque and doesn't speak like one. His (untold) message is rather simple : "I have no principles". His opponents think this is a weakness. In fact, given the state of the country, I'm certain many French think it's his best asset.

In other words : the French are tired of philosophers, they want an efficient manager.

The left, especially Royal, doesn't understand that. In all their speeches, they're making philosophy. And, even worse, Royal makes an awfull philosopher. Her tag lines sound like wisdom from chinese cookies : Désirs d'avenir, cahiers d'espérance, démocratie participative, je-suis-d'accord-avec-les-Français... All of this mushy nosense stands not a single second against the realities French citizens are living everyday.

And, if you read the left-wing blogs on the net, you'll notice that the leftist militants have nothing else to say that : "Sarkozy is fascist, Sarkozy is Hitler, Sarkozy is evil, Sarkozy is satanic, bla, bla, bla.". It's their only mantra. They almost never speak about Royal and her projects. This gives an impression of total emptiness when it comes to her. Even her doesn't speak about her project, but spends all her time bashing Sarkozy.

[Please note I say all of this from a strictly machiavellian point of view. That doesn't mean Sarkozy will be able to fulfill his promises. He almost certainly won't. But, from this point of view, he simply outclasses the PS.]

[ilv2]

Vote utile ? You're joking. Even if you add the scores of all the different parties, the left took one of its worst beating in its whole history. You want to know why ? Then re-read all the things I've posted here on this topic.

Rule n° 1 : Pierre-Henri speaks the truth.
Rule n° 2 : Pierre-Henri is a visionary.
Rule n° 3 : I will always listen to Pierre-Henri.
Rule n° 4 : I will never ignore Pierre-Henri's posts and will always read them with the most carefull attentiveness.
Rule n° 5 : Pierre-Henri is an inspiration for us all.
Rule n° 5 : At every second of my life, I will cherish the day when Pierre-Henri decided to be a Bigsoccer regular.

not quite sure i understand your post. From my perspective, the left avoided an even bigger beating by calling for the vote utile - with such a useless candidate and stuttering campaign, what else could they do but evoke the principle of keeping the left in power and remind all the nice little ecolos and gauchistes about the systemic dangers of both an ambitious guy like Sarko or even a third party into the mix.

[Pierre-Henri]

In 2002, the whole left (including the various communists) did 43 %. This year, they did 36 %. So, the "vote utile" allowed Royal to be present at the second round, but almost without any reserve. In other words, she wasted all her ammunition to reach the second round.

The left lost 7% in 5 years, with a very high participation*. It is a major beating. The left can do nothing now but rely on Bayrou voters, and I doubt the centrists will accept an alliance with trotskyists. The left will have to drag the PCF (1.9%) and the Greens (1.5%) like dead weight. They'll also have to deal with LCR wacko revolutionaries (4%).... while Sarkozy can set his own terms. The UMP threatened the UDF ("submit yourself or disappear") because they have the power to do so.

Of course, you can always say "this could have been worse". Schivardi did 0.4 % after all. However, given the Parti Socialist recent history, since 1981, ils se sont pris une sacrée tôle.


-----------------------
* It can mean the neo-voters are supporting Sarkozy or that the PS lost its traditional voters base and required new ones. Either way, it's good news for the right.

[ilv2]

In 2002, the whole left (including the various communists) did 43 %. This year, they did 36 %. So, the "vote utile" allowed Royal to be present at the second round, but almost without any reserve. In other words, she wasted all her ammunition to reach the second round.

ah ok, in agreement there.

[YankBastard]

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/media/photo/2007-05/29521680.jpg

[Douai]

Weird picture, YankBastard.

[YankBastard]

Weird picture, YankBastard.

Yeah, gives you a headache just looking at it, doesn't it?

[Reazzurro90]

Honestly, from an outsider's perspective, France has probably the worst electoral system I have ever seen. And sadly enough, this is coming from an Italian. Italy's electoral system is bad - after all, we have our joke of a government - but I don't think I'd be able to stand the runoff voting.

But if I were French, I would be voting for Nicolas Sarkozy. He appears far more capable of restructuring and leading the country than Royal.

I think his victory is inevitable anyway. He's been leading with a solid 5% lead consistently, the only thing that is missing is the "crowning" ceremony.

[YankBastard]

Honestly, from an outsider's perspective, France has probably the worst electoral system I have ever seen. And sadly enough, this is coming from an Italian. Italy's electoral system is bad - after all, we have our joke of a government - but I don't think I'd be able to stand the runoff voting.

But if I were French, I would be voting for Nicolas Sarkozy. He appears far more capable of restructuring and leading the country than Royal.

I think his victory is inevitable anyway. He's been leading with a solid 5% lead consistently, the only thing that is missing is the "crowning" ceremony.

Where's the 5% coming from?

[Reazzurro90]

Where's the 5% coming from?

Virtually every poll is giving him a a percentage of 52% against 47%.


That's a five point divide.

[YankBastard]

Virtually every poll is giving him a a percentage of 52% against 47%.


That's a five point divide.

Yeah but after watching the US elections predictions and exit polls that pretty much had Kerry winning easily, I wouldn't trust it. Frenchies can by fruity sometimes when it comes to voting. Just ask the EU.

[Nanbawan]

But if I were French, I would be voting for Nicolas Sarkozy. He appears far more capable of restructuring and leading the country than Royal.


Appearance is what Sarkozy is good at...The guy knows his candidate stunts for sure. Given his track record, it's unbelievable that the Socialist party failed to tear him a new one. There is something inherent to the Left that doesn't work in such electoral campaigns. I think they somewhat fail to reach out of their prime electorate.

You're not French...And you won't have to bear the burden of the Sarko reign...Welcome in CopCorpLand ! Besides his economical 'credibility' outside of France that makes The Economist and Newsweek cream their pants, there are other not so bright aspects for the French society and democracy if he's elected. I think it's Plato who said : "Don't give the Power to someone who craves for it."

My only hope is that he might calm down if he gets the thing he's been vying for during all his political career. Our last hope...*sigh* :(


Concerning the polls : I think the figures may be swollen by his 'friends' from the polling companies ; this said, he must have a healthy lead nonetheless. I hope people will not be too discouraged by that and turn out in massive numbers to vote for Ségo. We never know, and the final margin is important too.

Let's not forget 'the third round' that are the legislatives election in June either. It's important for the Left to prevent the UMP from having too much of a majority at the Parliament. Yet, it will be quite difficult to achieve that just after losing this election if it's the case...


"Les Français sont des veaux !"

Général de Gaulle.

[Reazzurro90]

You're not French...And you won't have to bear the burden of the Sarko reign...Welcome in CopCorpLand ! Besides his economical 'credibility' outside of France that makes The Economist and Newsweek cream their pants, there are other not so bright aspects for the French society and democracy if he's elected. I think it's Plato who said : "Don't give the Power to someone who craves for it."

I never said that you people didn't know who you were voting for, or that you should vote for Sarkozy. I merely stated my own opinion. Personally, if we're going to vote on who is more incompetent, I think Royal would win that election in a landslide.


Concerning the polls : I think the figures may be swollen by his 'friends' from the polling companies ; this said, he must have a healthy lead nonetheless. I hope people will not be too discouraged by that and turn out in massive numbers to vote for Ségo. We never know, and the final margin is important too.

True. In Italy, the polls were giving Romano Prodi a clear advantage over Silvio Berlusconi, and then on election night it was discovered to be an actual stalemate.


Let's not forget 'the third round' that are the legislatives election in June either. It's important for the Left to prevent the UMP from having too much of a majority at the Parliament. Yet, it will be quite difficult to achieve that just after losing this election if it's the case...

Wouldn't the Socialists be able to organize themselves in time to prepare an effective electoral campaign?