So, What's The Best Way?

[SetPeace]

Teams participating in this year's Gold Cup will see their FIFA rankings rise or fall based on their performance. World Cup Qualifying for 2010 begins next year (hard to believe, isn't it?). What do you think is the best way for CONCACAF to determine which teams go into which pots? How much of the decision should be based on current form when the draw is made, and how much should be based on past performance in WCQ's? As of today, here is the breakdown of CONCACAF teams as they are currently ranked by FIFA.

Tier 1: Mexico, United States, Costa Rica, Honduras, Panama, Cuba
Tier 2: Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Haiti, Guatemala, Canada, Guyana
Tier 3: St. Vincent & Grenadines, Barbados, Surinam, Bermuda, Antigua & Barbuda, St. Kitts & Nevis
Tier 4: Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Bahamas, Nicaragua, Grenada, St. Lucia
Tier 5: Turks & Caicos, Netherlands Antilles, British Virgin Islands, Dominica, Cayman Islands, Puerto Rico
Tier 6: Anguilla, Montserrat, Belize, Aruba, U.S. Virgin Islands

Of course, there are many matches to be played between now and the end of this year when the draw is made (unless it's pushed into January, 2008). Based on the above model, it would appear that Honduras and Cuba would push out T & T and Guatemala, even though the latter 2 made it to the final Hex in 2006, while the former 2 did not. Would that be fair? If you had input into the process, what would you advise?

Personally, I think more weight should be given to the present, but if it's a situation where teams like Cuba and Trinidad & Tobago are very close in the FIFA rankings, I'd give the nod to T & T to be in the first pot, based on a more consistent performance in the past cycle. If the difference between the 2 is as great as it is between Honduras and Guatemala, you'd have to go with Honduras in the first pot. Then again, you could also reverse it if the teams met head-to-head this year, and give the advantage to the team that won. It will be interesting to see how it develops.

[ZeekLTK]

Based on the above model, it would appear that Honduras and Cuba would push out T & T and Guatemala, even though the latter 2 made it to the final Hex in 2006, while the former 2 did not. Would that be fair? If you had input into the process, what would you advise?

I don't really understand if this is your proposal or if you are trying to analyze how the draw will go.

If it's the latter then ranking has nothing to do with it. Honduras and Cuba can be ranked #1 and #2 in the world by the end of the year and they are both still going into Pot C and E, respectively, because of what happened in the last World Cup Qualifying. Ditto for T&T and Guatemala. They are both going to Pot B even if they each somehow drop to the very bottom of the rankings.

If it's the former, I don't agree. World Cup Qualifying is a tournament. I think it is fair to use past performances from a tournament to seed for future tournaments, provided it is the same tournament (aka World Cup, or Gold Cup, or whatever).

St. Vincent/Grenadines has earned their World Cup spot in Pot C by qualifying to the WCQ semifinals for 4 consecutive cycles (every time since 1994!). Just because they don't do as well in other competitions that have nothing to do with the World Cup does not mean they should be punished in the tournament that they do do well in. Same for Cuba, okay so they do good in Gold Cup qualifying and other smaller tournaments, but when it comes to the World Cup they are not good at all. During St. Vincent's 4 straight semifinals, Cuba has only reached the semifinals once. Why should Cuba get a higher seed than St. Vincent in the World Cup when they have not been as good as St. Vincent in the World Cup, but only because they have been better in other competitions? Different seeding for different competitions is fair.

Should St. Vincent have a better seed than Cuba in the Gold Cup? No!
Should St. Vincent have a better seed than Cuba in the World Cup? YES!

[Daniel from Montréal]

St. Vincent/Grenadines has earned their World Cup spot in Pot C by qualifying to the WCQ semifinals for 4 consecutive cycles (every time since 1994!). Just because they don't do as well in other competitions that have nothing to do with the World Cup does not mean they should be punished in the tournament that they do do well in. Same for Cuba, okay so they do good in Gold Cup qualifying and other smaller tournaments, but when it comes to the World Cup they are not good at all. During St. Vincent's 4 straight semifinals, Cuba has only reached the semifinals once. Why should Cuba get a higher seed than St. Vincent in the World Cup when they have not been as good as St. Vincent in the World Cup, but only because they have been better in other competitions? Different seeding for different competitions is fair.

Should St. Vincent have a better seed than Cuba in the Gold Cup? No!
Should St. Vincent have a better seed than Cuba in the World Cup? YES!

The obvious answer is that Cuba doesn't make the C pot (at least the last 2 times) because they are the lower seed in the 24-team round (Canada and Costa Rica its last opponents), as opposed to Saint-Vincent who, because of a decent performance 3 years ago, keeps its top seed (facing off against minnows) in the 24-round.