L' Election Présidentielle 2007 / French Presidential Election [R]

[Douai]

Bernard Sananès : "Ségolène Royal a créé la surprise sans réussir à inverser la tendance"
LEMONDE.FR | 03.05.07 | 13h20 • Mis à jour le 03.05.07 | 14h47

Directeur général de l'agence de communication Euro RSCG C&O, Bernard Sananès, a commenté, en direct, depuis la rédaction du Monde.fr, le débat télévisé entre Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy. Il a écrit, jeudi 3 mai, une note sur son blog reproduite ici.


"Maintenant que la nuit est passée, je n'ai pas changé d'avis. Ségolène, malgré toutes ses insuffisances, malgré son flou, malgré ses tunnels, a incontestablement créé la surprise sans au final réussir je le crois à inverser la tendance. La surprise de l'offensive, permanente, sur tous les sujets, et d'entrée de jeu, sur la sécurité là où sans doute Sarkozy l'attendait le moins.

La surprise aussi d'avoir réussi à plusieurs reprises à donner le sentiment que Sarko était en difficulté. Et c'est une surprise tout simplement parce que jusqu'à présent dans cette campagne cela n'était jamais arrivé. Sarko superstar, Sarko superman, hier, était sur la défensive, terrain sur lequel il avait de toute facon choisi de jouer. La surprise aussi sur le terrain de la crédibilité.

Bien sûr son absence de concret, le sentiment souvent de fuir les réponses, l'impression de ne pas maîtriser les chiffres, ne permettent pas à "Mme Royal" de rattraper son retard sur cet item, mais elle a réussi à donner le sentiment de plus de densité que dans le passé. Sur la forme en revanche, elle a souvent été à la limite de l'agressivité, ses interruptions lui donnant parfois un côté assez hautain et rendant Sarko plus sympathique, plus apaisé.

SARKOZY EST APPARU PLUS MAÎTRE DE LUI-MÊME

Sarko a réussi à garder son sang froid, difficilement sans doute, mais contenant son énervement d'être interrompu sans cesse, prenant souvent les journalistes à témoin d'un regard. Sarkozy avait choisi cette tactique, il savait que son seul danger était de s'emporter, ce que Ségolène espérait obtenir, et sur ce point là, il a marqué des points.

En fait, alors que quinze mois de campagne électorale n'avait rien changé à leur image, le débat d'hier leur a permis à tous les deux, de rectifier, leurs points négatifs. Lui est apparu plus calme, plus maître de lui-même, faisant moins peur, elle plus rassurante sur sa "compétence" et sa capacité à incarner la fonction présidentielle.

Au total, je pense que le débat n'inverse pas le résultat, mais il est important pour l'après. Elle a montré que même si elle ne gagne pas dimanche elle peut être le chef de l'opposition, ce qui n'est pas une bonne nouvelle ni pour les éléphants du Parti socialiste ni pour François Bayrou. Quant à Sarkozy, il a pu désarconner ses supporters qui auraient aimé le voir plus offensif, mais il a pu dérouler son programme et le match d'hier lui permet d'espérer la victoire."

Bernard Sananès

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-904816,0.html

[Nanbawan]

I blame Nanbawan

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat !!!? :eek: :D

I'm innocent sir. BTW, I am not a socialist ! And certainly not a militant of the Socialist Party !

Although I'd like to think about myself as a free thinker, I have to admit that due to repulsion of the rightist way of thinking, my political center of gravity* must be somewhere on the Left. Anything right of a gaullist is already too much for me as far as politics are concerned. Yet, from a philosophical POV, on certain issues, I can happen to agree on - at least from - an intellectual basis with ideas that would be deemed conservative by some of the left dogma.

That's why while I respect the will of those at 'the left of the left' to better the situation of workers (and it has to be said there has been rather reasonable propositions in that respect ; I mean communists and Besancenot stating that taxes should be revised for smaller business as they are the ones that provide jobs** and economical dynamism on a local scale), I am not longing for their project of society which ironically like capitalism is too much based on bare materialism, social sciences, scientific reductionism and the use of people as means of production, supposedly for their own good and the promise of a providential future for everyone but it still falls short of the Truth and neglects some defining aspects of human beings, claiming to bring an indisputable happiness to all while somewhat denying the access to a wider range of dreams and destinies originating from the various individual characters, histories and aspirations. Er, I believe that's simply called Freedom.

The Marxist analysis has some relevance (AFAIK, I'm not a specialist) but a rigid society with principles derived from what appears to be a misinterpretation at best, no thanks ! I am not confused between the French communists or leftists and the Soviet Union though, even if there were links in the past. What happens in Soviet like regimes is definitely the ultimate perversion of the communist ideals. Anyway, like I said earlier, I'm not afraid of saying that I still share some values with them that are in fact rather universal and atemporal ; you can find similar things in religions for instance as it is basically humans reflecting on their condition.

So, I might be on the left of the spectrum, but I haven't really bought stricto sensu the socialist dialectic on progressism. All must be debatable for me. This said, I'm closer to them dealing with social issues and concern for the 'weaks' in our society even if I have some deep philosophical reserves about the ideology : I don't like the idea of individuals being social tools for a broader goal ; individuals should not be melted in some societal magma, they are the fundamental constituents of societies but also the fundamental receiving end, the tool is society. I don't mean that people should not respect it as they shall have ethical regards for others and then the community. I then also have reserves about the actual way they wish to implement the ideology.

Many people who share those concern usually disagree with the Left on the base of economics ; It's slightly the case for me as I think that pragmatism is not a crime when it's not an alibi to dig the social divide further. If it's for the benefit of the people, let's exploit the market cause the market does not have second thoughts about exploiting people ! Otherwise, it means conducting a revolution. Why not ? But one can't endlessly wait for a providential revolution while letting the Kapital take it all...It's rather absurd.

On the other hand, if a softer solution is chosen, it's obvious that the goal is to make the best on the short term with what you've got without forgetting the humanist end to aim for. Preparing the future but without committing the error -neocapitalism included- of letting a generation forsaken in the interval. The interval matters ! People and their Life matter ! So the goal would not be to anihilate the market within the snap of a pair of fingers but putting the market political importance in perspective, caring about not depriving the fundamental, the paramount value of the human being in any political process.

Hey, I must be somewhat socialist in the end since I happen to think that the State is still the best guarantee to achieve a -what I would call - 'benevolent frame' as long as it is well governed, fair, accountable and of course respects the individuals. An 'authority' that can only be legitimate if it hasn't forgotten where it's legitimity came from in the first place...An authority that can be challenged and subject to constructive debate as well and which ontoligical viability relies on what it actually brings to the community.



* My scientific background would make me invoke some quantum physics theories. Let's say my position of maximal probability of presence is somewhere on the left of the spectrum mainly due to repulsion coming from a force field emanating from the right. So, according to those theories, my probability of being on the right (or way further to the left) from time to time is not void ; it's just less likely. Got it ? :o


** Big business thrives in France (or rather abroad), takes the bucks and does so without contributing to help French people get jobs despite the fact that they don't exactly spit on the state subsidies that are supposed to be linked with creating jobs. A company like ST Microelectronics came in Rennes, took the local subsidies, grew and finally outsourced the jobs after closing the site...


http://www.dailymotion.com/relevance/search/ardisson%2Bcac40/video/x1f86t_trop-de-benef-au-cac40

Les entreprises du CAC40 n'ont pas créé d'emplois et ont augmenté leurs profits de 1500% depuis 2002.

CAC40 companies have not created jobs and have increased their benefits by 1500 % since 2002.


PS : Yeah, you can carve this epitaph on my grave : 'Hopeless romantic'.

[Nanbawan]

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-904816,0.html

But, as far as debate is concerned, Ségo might (I say might) surprise, at least from her ability to confront her opponent. After that, will there be relevant things to be said...

Ha haaaaaaaaaaa ! :cool: :p

[Anthony]

Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaat !!!? :eek: :D

I'm innocent sir. BTW, I am not a socialist ! And certainly not a militant of the Socialist Party !

Gee, I was joking. Tell a Frenchman a joke and you get a 300 page treatise on philosophy! ;)

[Pierre-Henri]

After viewing the debates, I was struck by one observation (based purely upon rhetoric) which is that Royal actually seemed like candidate that will be most likely to incarnate the rupture from France's old traditions.


I completely disagree. The revolutionary rhetoric is an old chesnut of all leftist speeches. They always talk about change even when they are apparatchiks in charge since 1982. I could give you names of so-called revolutionaries, who are in fact deeply drown into bureaucracy since immemorial times. Segolène Royal herself graduated at the ENA, for holly sakes ! They still believe they are in may 68, but their revolutionary speeches are nothing else than mythomania.

If a victory of Sarkozy can rid us of those damn bo-bo, God bless him !

So, even if I agree with Nanbawan analysis, my own center of gravity is leaning to the right. Mostly because I had to face those bloody "pedagogists" and union activists, who are supported by the PS. Ras le bol de ces pseudo-rebelles avec sécurité de l'emploi intégrée !

Well, a moderate left (something like your democrats) would be nice to me. But the french socialists are still too deep into their marxist drivel. A long time ago, my family quit communist Poland to find a new home. We know what "popular democracy" really means. Capitalism isn't perfect, but it's still better than spending 6 hours into a lineup to buy a pair of mismatched shoes, knowing that the Party's spooks are looking at you for any sign of disapproval.

[Nanbawan]

Segolène Royal herself graduated at the ENA, for holly sakes ! They still believe they are in may 68, but their revolutionary speeches are nothing else than mythomania.

Bah, Ségolène is center left at most ! I mean, look how she dresses ! ;)

If a victory of Sarkozy can rid us of those damn bo-bo, God bless him !

(I only say this to upset Nanbawan :D )



It may bring other unpleasant aspects !

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-906026@51-906027,0.html

And bo-bos get on my nerves too ! :p

[Ali_reza]

Nooo !

Sarkhozy 53%
Ségolène 47%

No surprise :o

[Nanbawan]

Indeed.

Pays de merde ! :mad: :rolleyes:

OK, welcome sweet depression...

[ilv2]

No surprise :o

6 months of buildup for nothing.


I completely disagree. The revolutionary rhetoric is an old chesnut of all leftist speeches. They always talk about change even when they are apparatchiks in charge since 1982. I could give you names of so-called revolutionaries, who are in fact deeply drown into bureaucracy since immemorial times. Segolène Royal herself graduated at the ENA, for holly sakes ! They still believe they are in may 68, but their revolutionary speeches are nothing else than mythomania.
If a victory of Sarkozy can rid us of those damn bo-bo, God bless him !

Honestly, I will be surprised if he actually implements any longterm remedy for the bureaucracy. Sure, I dislike bourgeois dressing up as marxists and adopting their rhetoric, but calling them out on it only accomplishes so much. And meanwhile, even though as an outsider I tend to like his economic policy, he callously forgets a number of key popular societal issues, let alone touch the core of the systemic problems plaguing the education or judicial system.
Woe that day when France ended up with such awful choices.

[Douai]

Nooo !

Sarkhozy 53%
Ségolène 47%

No surprise :o

Yeah, no surprise indeed.

[Anthony]

Woe that day when France ended up with such awful choices.

Just remember, in politics, the choice is usually between a Giant Douche http://mud.mm-a5.yimg.com/image/3280345908 and a Turd Sandwich http://mud.mm-a3.yimg.com/image/2506818827 because they are the only ones who suck up enough to get elected.

[YankBastard]

So, when's the anti-Sarcozy riots start?

[Ali_reza]

So, when's the anti-Sarcozy riots start?


Everything is calm inside Paris.

[ilv2]

soon, my friend, soon. As soon as Johnny finishes his return concert at the Sarko victory party. :rolleyes: :D

Everything is calm inside Paris.

it's immediately outside Paris that should be worrying.

Just remember, in politics, the choice is usually between a Giant Douche and a Turd Sandwich because they are the only ones who suck up enough to get elected.

haha that episode is the best: "Vote or Die!" Suck up enough to get elected? I really think the dynamic is better in France, that there are truly people who deserve to have a chance to govern but don't recieve it not because they didn't suck it up, but because the electorate are idiots. The same is probably true in the states, but I've been so out of touch with American politics for a while.
^ In retrospect, that sounds like a typical "what could've been" lament so perhaps you have a point there. I mean, seriously, what has changed in since Vercingetorix :D

[Reazzurro90]

Everything is calm inside Paris.

Weren't there already some people burning Sarkozy pictures and clashing with the police?

[Ali_reza]

Weren't there already some people burning Sarkozy pictures and clashing with the police?


Don't know ? I was just out and everything was calm. I was in the center of Paris.

But it's possible there are some mini clashes.

The riot police is all over Paris.

[Reazzurro90]

I would prefer to see a Sarkozy-like figure in Italy than the Prodi that we have currently....

Anyone forsee a Socialist victory in the parliamentary elections coming up in June?

[ilv2]

nope.

In 2002 the UMP got over 60 % of the seats during the legislatives. Things could change, with Bayrou getting significantly more support, but the 2nd round votes will probably won't amount to much.

I don't know about Italian politics, but what bearing or relation do they have for politics in France that compels you to cite a comparison? I imagine that not only the context is drastically different, but the problems and potential solutions are likely divergent as well.

[Nanbawan]

the electorate are idiots. The same is probably true in the states,

Yeah ! See ? We can be as dumb as anybody else, anybody ! http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/images/icons/icon14.gif

[ilv2]

Sarko's victory speech
http://www.sarkozy.fr/video/index.php?intChannelId=1

well, he's right in one respect. A page has been turned. Who knows what awaits? (Although, I'm banking that in 2012, we'll all be here discussing the same old things, of course will a few more big bumps along the way)