L' Election Présidentielle 2007 / French Presidential Election [R]

[Pierre-Henri]

Bayrou has announced (http://www.eursoc.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/1547/Bayrou's_Choice.html) that he is not endorsing either candidate in the run off.

Yup, but he'll publicaly meet Ségolène Royal. So, the non-endorsing clause is nothing but a political smoke screen.

[Douai]

Yup, but he'll publicaly meet Ségolène Royal. So, the non-endorsing clause is nothing but a political smoke screen.

So you think that Bayrou supports Royal?

[Pierre-Henri]

Well, it seems rather obvious from here, even if he won't say so. On the other hand, since it's arcane politics (things you can't say but that people should understand nonetheless), I may be wrong. Many centrist congressmen joined Sarkozy, so Bayrou needs something to exist.

Plus, the far-left part of the PS (Emmanuelli) is threatening to secede, and wish to join the communists. In this case, the PS would need an alliance with Bayrou if they want to survive. On the other other hand, all of this may be nothing else than politician buzz, so the medias don't talk about Sarkozy.

Oww, here comes my french politics headache once again...

[Douai]

Débat Royal-Bayrou : Nicolas Sarkozy dénonce les "petites combines" contre lui
LEMONDE.FR avec AFP | 28.04.07 | 14h31 • Mis à jour le 28.04.07 | 16h39
Il y en a qui sont dans un grand hôtel à bavasser ensemble, moi, mon hôtel, c'est ici", "sur le terrain", a critiqué Nicolas Sarkozy, samedi 28 avril. En visite à Valenciennes, dans le fief de Jean-Louis Borloo, le candidat de l'UMP a poursuivi ses attaques contre Ségolène Royal et François Bayrou, qui pendant ce temps débattaient à Paris. "Eux, ils discutent boutiques et partis, moi je suis au milieu des Français", a-t-il martelé.


"S'ils s'y mettent si nombreux à vouloir m'empêcher" de gagner l'élection présidentielle, "c'est parce qu'ils ont compris qu'une fois que le train sera passé, il sera trop tard" pour eux, a lâché M. Sarkozy. Il a accusé Mme Royal et M. Bayrou de se livrer à "des petites combines" pour "essayer de voler aux Français le second tour", décochant ses flèches les plus acérées au leader UDF, un "mauvais perdant" qu'il n'a "jamais vu dans un tel état".


http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-903363,0.html

Plus, the far-left part of the PS (Emmanuelli) is threatening to secede, and wish to join the communists. In this case, the PS would need an alliance with Bayrou if they want to survive.
So your saying that if that happens many of the far-left members of the PS would leave?Are there really that many of them?

I found a bigger map of the results of the Élection présidentielle française de 2007:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4f/Carte-presidentielle-2007.png

[Anti-footix]

all the results can be found on the "Ministère de l'Intéreur" website (results by regions, départements, villes) :

http://www.interieur.gouv.fr/sections/a_votre_service/resultats-elections/PR2007/index.html

and for those who hate Sarko, you may enjoy this silly website : http://royalcoupdeboule.com/

[Pierre-Henri]

So your saying that if that happens many of the far-left members of the PS would leave?Are there really that many of them?


Hard to say. But if you take the 2005 European referendum as a reference, the "no" made roughly 60 % among the PS and the Greens, even though the PS officially endorsed the "yes". The PS extremists (Emmanuelli, Mélanchon and -oddly enough- Fabius) will probably use this percentage as an argument for secession.

But, then again, all of this may be nothing but electoral buzz.

[ilv2]

who saw the debate today? Sego's supporters are coming out of it fairly positive, which is suprising since direct debate would be a priori one of her greatest weaknesses. So what went down?

[Nanbawan]

Many centrist congressmen joined Sarkozy,


Because they're scared to death about losing their seat in the legislatives once the UMP will conduct its electoral retaliation by fielding someone in their circonscription.

so Bayrou needs something to exist.

Bayrou needs independance from the UMP if he wants to generate the grand centrist party that could one day bring a centrist to the magistrature suprême. And count on the political arena anyway...

On a personal POV, the rupture with Sarkozy the man is blatant. The fact is Sarko's methods have this kind of consequences...It's quite courageous by Bayrou to take this gamble but I also think there's a point where you can't compromise anymore and apparently he reached it with the UMP...

[Nanbawan]

who saw the debate today?

No, just 'highlights'. They mainly disagreed on economics, but it was a well mannered debate on the whole. Something strangely unusual to some maybe...

Personally, since the first round is over, I don't follow things very closely since my vote is made for this time around. Unless Ségo eats babies and Sarko finds a cure against AIDS. That does not mean I would vote for him ; I would just consider ! :D


Sego's supporters are coming out of it fairly positive, which is suprising since direct debate would be a priori one of her greatest weaknesses.

The Socialist campaign has been rather lame, that's true. And as Pierre-Henri points out, it's also true that their rhetoric sounds sappy and not really inspired...But, as far as debate is concerned, Ségo might (I say might) surprise, at least from her ability to confront her opponent. After that, will there be relevant things to be said...I expect Sarkozy to use his best Bistro argumentation skills...Crime, fear, immigrants, crime, order, faits divers, crime, work, more work, values, blah, blah, blah...

"But what should I do ? Leave the scores of Muslim integrists living on our soil cut the throat of our citizens in their underground HLM Mosque bath tub while receiving the welfare cheque after they set fire to their daughter and eviscerated hundreds of their wives in the hallal fashion before their sons who just came back from a gang rape of a girl they stoned to death with his 9 year old brother Karim taking the footage on his cell phone and sending it in attached e-mail to Mullah Omar who happens to be hidden in an Ivry-sur-Seine (94) neighbourhood association, association made of bolchevik (and child rapist) syndicalists using the Islamists to prepare their next revolution that would get rid of everything that's right and beautiful such as honest people working at Kiabi in Vesoul on Sundays to pay for their F2 appartment and the paramount privilege to watch TF1 and vote for Joëlle in 'Star Academy'. Did you know that Mme Royal ? Do you love this country to conduct a policy that drives us to that point ?"

[Douai]

who saw the debate today?

They are showing highlights of it on BFM TV:

http://www.onlinetvtools.com/playTV/english/29717

[Pierre-Henri]

Of course, Nanbawan, you're only slightly exagerating.

If all leftists call "bistro argumentation" the things that really interest the French, there is no mystery to the continuous bashing they take again and again. As I said, socialists talk about philosophy, Sarkozy talks about issues (I don't say he talks correctly about them, but that's another story). What kind of beating will the PS require before they stop their empty parisian bo-bo chitchat ? Sheesh. Likes commies, they'll probably be at 1.8% and still believe they are the only truth.

Personaly, I won't be home the 6 for some important reasons. It wasn't on purpose, but it is a relish : I'm certain the socialist program will lead the country to complete disaster but, on the other hand, Sarkozy's nationalism scares me. This little professional trip is a blessing for the tranquility of my soul. It relieves me from an impossible choice.

(I know I can vote by proxy but, hell, I don't want to annoy other people with this).

[Nanbawan]

Sarkozy talks about issues (I don't say he talks correctly about them, but that's another story).

That's the point. He evokes those issues mainly to exploit them ; the real problem being the nauseous implications present in his rhetoric. I don't say that those topics shouldn't be dealt with at all yet you don't have to insult a community for that just because some people can hear what they wanted to hear...

The same can be said about philosophy, the problem is not to have a philosophical debate in politics ; the problem is that it's lame !

You need facts and ideas in politics. The whole thing is that it has to be made as properly as possible. I'm really saddened by the fact that so many French brainlessly buy Sarko's antics; Real issues or not. Discernment is an intellectual bliss. If he takes this election by a wide margin, my sentiment of belonging in here will certainly take a heavy blow. Well, it has already.

[Pierre-Henri]

If he takes this election by a wide margin, my sentiment of belonging in here will certainly take a heavy blow. Well, it has already.

I understand this. I attack the left more often only because I used to vote for them. Since I've never voted for the right, at least they never betrayed me.

All in all, the whole of french politics leaves me with a deep feeling of emptiness. We have the choice between a antiquated left, still plagued by the collectivist ideal, and a right-wing populist obsessed by authority and media control. Communist or neocon ? Make your choice, free citizen :( !

And it's not only in politics. In every fields of french society, things are running to the extremes. University, for example, is plagued by the influence of the two extremes at the very same time :

- a soviet-like bureaucracy, poisoned by nepotism and unionist shadow policies.
- an ultra-capitalistic view of society, which lavishly funds economy, marketing and profit-making sciences... but lets humanities and non-profit sciences rot in squalor.

French university doesn't die because it is too collectivist or too mercantile. It dies because it is too collectivist AND too mercantile.

In other words, we added up the weaknesses of socialism and capitalism. France is poor and fossilized like a socialist country. France is unfair and merciless like a capitalist country. So I agree with you, but I look at both sides. My feeling of appartenance takes a blow because of right-wing nationalism* and it takes another blow because of left-wing kafkaesque bureaucracy.

I am a refugee
In a world that once was mine
Hunting my tomorrow
On the edge of time
But these days I’m running through the dark
Like a blind man -- what’s happened to me?
These days I’m running from a tribe in the badlands
Oh set me free


-----------------------------------
* The "positive aspects" of colonization, to name only one example.

[Anthony]

Hard to say. But if you take the 2005 European referendum as a reference, the "no" made roughly 60 % among the PS and the Greens, even though the PS officially endorsed the "yes". The PS extremists (Emmanuelli, Mélanchon and -oddly enough- Fabius) will probably use this percentage as an argument for secession.

But, then again, all of this may be nothing but electoral buzz.

One of teh interesting analysis I have seen is that Bayrou is hoping to take what is left of the UDF and join with the Socialist right to form a new "Social Democratic Party" with something of a pro Europe Blairite-Clintonite type of "Third Way" platform. The Socialist left would then join with the Boy Trotskeyite (who now claims he is not a Trotskeyite, despite what his party platform says) to form a new Left Socialist party, which presumably would be anti-Euro integration (at least until the revolution comes)

[ilv2]

on what timetable though? Given that the legislatives are around the corner, a movement might begin before then, but to presume that the PS is going to split in two is a big ask, whether or not Sarko becomes president. Additionally, as was stated above, you have to consider that a significant portion of the UDF heavily favor Sarko and the UMP over the policies of the socialists, even those of the most center-leaning pockets.
19% was an excellent score for Bayrou, but can he do much higher after all is said and done? I'm not so sure.

Nifty table representing the UDF support in the AN for the UMP
http://www.lemonde.fr/web/infog/0,47-0@2-823448,54-901901@51-902911,0.html

and this treat ""J'invite les Français à rallier mon ego surdimensionné" :D:
http://medias.lemonde.fr/mmpub/edt/ill/2007/04/30/h_3_ill_903903_sarkozy-sous-titrage.jpg

[Anthony]

on what timetable though? Given that the legislatives are around the corner, a movement might begin before then, but to presume that the PS is going to split in two is a big ask, whether or not Sarko becomes president.

I cannot find the analysis (it was on a blog) but I think the idea was by the next presidential election. The UDF's problem is that it has never had a coherent ideology, it is in some ways more like an American political party in that it is a group of varying beliefs united by a common enemy. In the UDF's case, it was everyone to the right of the socialists who were not far right and not Chirac supporters.

One college professor of mine quiped that the UDF had one member party (the MRP or whatever they called themselves in the 1980s (I forget, sorry)) where you could be thrown out for not going to church, and another (the Radicals) where you could be thrown out for thinking of going to church.

Granted, the UDF is different today, as the most has gone off and joined the the soon to be post-Chirac UMP, the old constiuent parties have pretty much disbanded and the rest are looking for a new reason for existence.

As for Besancenot, why not? The 2002 election showed that while the Left in France still has some teeth, the traditional left is dead. Given the split in the PS over the 2005 referendum, he may be in a good position to exploit it (granted, my feelings toward the left in general, and the far left and Trotskeyites in particular, I hope not).

[Pierre-Henri]

UDF was always stuck in between. Today, its members are mostly to the right (more by opportunity than by conviction), while its voters are mostly to the left. I don't see how the party could survive for long.


Besancenot :eek: ? We would have to :

- make an alliance with Venezuela, Cuba and North Korea.

- welcome tourists in a very homelike and friendly environment :
http://berlin-wall.org/bilder/b_mur3.jpg

- declare war to filthy american capitalist pigs (you'd lose).

- save money for years before we can buy the last Trabant model from "Renault People's Factories".

- Marvel at the last technological discoveries made at our prestigious "Georges Marchais University" :
http://www.at-mix.de/images/glossar/minitel.jpg

- Cry with joy because our taxes passed from 98% to 96%.

- listen to El Besancenõ 5 hours long speeches.

- wait for his demise (if he's like Castro, he will still be on charge in 2065).

Besancenot for President ? I hope America will shelter me before the revolutionaries build the iron curtain. Worst thing : they'd probably build it in the name of friendship and tolerance.

[Anthony]

I am getting lots of e-mail from the Royal campaign. Somehow, I ended up on their "emillitants" list.

[ilv2]

I cannot find the analysis (it was on a blog) but I think the idea was by the next presidential election. The UDF's problem is that it has never had a coherent ideology, it is in some ways more like an American political party in that it is a group of varying beliefs united by a common enemy. In the UDF's case, it was everyone to the right of the socialists who were not far right and not Chirac supporters.

Agreed there, and that is the major stumbling block that unfortunately Bayrou hasn't really taken into account with his vote centriste. I mean, really, what in the world is centrisme besides somebody wavering in between the left and the right and voting whichever way appeals to him/her with each proposal that passes by. But in the same manner, I believe this moment would actually present Bayrou with a great chance to expand his constituency given that the other two choices and so incredibly divergent, and dare I say, horrible. When the elections have passed and one candidate has become president of the republic, then the dichotomy settles in once more, and the chance to develop a "centrist" party - again, whatever the hell that means - vanishes.

--------------

After viewing the debates, I was struck by one observation (based purely upon rhetoric) which is that Royal actually seemed like candidate that will be most likely to incarnate the rupture from France's old traditions. Not saying that she'll actually do that if she ever becomes president, but given the negative publicity that she's had recently, there's no doubt I was pleasantly surprised.

elephants, elephants, elephants..

[Anthony]

As I noted above, I have somehow gotten onto the Royal scampaign e-mail list (I blame Nanbawan). I do not speak French, but I think I got the gist of his:

Bayrou: "je ne voterai pas pour Nicolas Sarkozy"
PARIS, 3 mai 2007 (AFP) - Le président de l'UDF François Bayrou déclare qu'il "ne votera pas pour" Nicolas Sarkozy, sans pour autant dire ce qu'il fera le 6 mai, dans le journal Le Monde daté de vendredi.


Interrogé après le débat qui a opposé mercredi soir Ségolène Royal et Nicolas Sarkozy, M. Bayrou a assuré qu'il ne ferait "probablement pas" de déclaration avant le second tour, ajoutant toutefois: "je ne voterai pas pour Sarkozy".


Le leader centriste, qui avait obtenu 18,57% des voix au premier tour de la présidentielle et dont les 6,8 millions d'électeurs sont très courtisés par les candidats UMP et PS, avait déjà laissé entendre, lors de sa conférence de presse du 25 avril, qu'il ne voterait pas pour M. Sarkozy.


"Je ne sais pas ce que je ferai, mais je commence à savoir ce que je ne ferai pas" à titre personnel au second tour, avait-il déclaré, après avoir annoncé qu'il ne donnerait pas de consigne de vote.

Interrogé après le débat par le Monde, M. Bayrou a reconnu "en triple off" que Mme Royal "s'en est plutôt bien sortie", ajoute le journal.