L' Election Présidentielle 2007 / French Presidential Election [R]

[AllezParisAllezPSG]

The most annoying thing about those articles is that they still keep the good old clichés and back thir argument with that. Apparently, there are no learning and revision whatsoever from what was already said at the time of the 'non' vote or the banlieues crisis. Just the repetition of pseudo conclusions that were not subtle enough at the time and still aren't.

personally i liked the article in the economist (i get it every week and am obsessed w/ it)... i'd be glad to argue (or anyone else) there point of view... but when you mention that there is no learning or revision whatsoever from the "non" vote or the banlieue crisis, it's simply enough due to the fact that nothing has changed... and i think i can safely say we can thank chirac for that...

[Pierre-Henri]

Yup, this election -once again- has little to do with profound convictions. Once, I and many others will have to vote 'against' and not 'for' something and it's a bit tiring. At a certain point, it's really out of civic duty to carry on voting...


My feeling exactly. I keep repeating myself that voting is important for democracy (I always did) but, more and more, I'm getting sick of it all. What's the point ? The future government will be a puppet regime anyway. There will be no breathing space for it, whatever it will decide to do. No money, no functional institutions, no clear political majority, no common point on which people could agree...

What a government -- any government -- could achieve, the country such at it is today ?

It's not a matter of convictions, it's a matter of practicality. Politicians in Paris are like the Versailles Court in the 18th century. They bicker among themselves, make grandiose speeches, write laws, sign papers but, in reality, nothing happens because the relay stations between central government and local agents don't work anymore.

[Douai]

What a government -- any government -- could achieve, the country such at it is today ?

So you don't think any candidate can solve the country's economic problems?

[Pierre-Henri]

If you've read my posts here, you know I'm very pessimistic about the situation of of the country. I may be biased, because I have an university degree, and university is the most ruined of all french institutions. I'm also currently unemployed, and survive thanks to social aids. This to explain my point of view, full of gloom and sorrow, in comparison with Guignol's, for example, who keeps believing that France is a nice country to live in. But Guignol belongs to the other France, ie the France of people who have jobs. Guignol an I live in the same country, but we don't live in the same world.

So yes, I think France situation is desperate, and that no government will be able to change anything. French situation today is like a big gordian knot. Everything is so tangled together that there is no possibility, for any party, for any governement, to draw a clear line. Municipalities, intermunicipalities, departments, regions, nation, presidency, government, senate, assembly, unions, Europe.... all of this form a gigantic jigsaw (1) where differents pieces don't fit together.

For exemple, since I'm unemployed, I'm in contact with :
- the ASSEDIC
- the ANPE
- the CAF
- the Sécurité Sociale
- an association at local level
- another one, still at local level (but at another local level. Don't ask me to explain, I don't understand it myself).

Roughly speaking, I'm in contact with half a dozain administrations, and I've met around 25 different job counsellors (3). Here you think : "great, it means the french social model is operative and offers a lot of possibilities to people in trouble". Nope, it's exactly the opposite : these administrations don't share informations. When I say I've met 25 different counsellors, it means I had to repeat the same story 25 times, and had to start everything from scrap at every meeting, for no result at all. I feel like Sisyphus.

Another situation. Let's imagine an university invites a lecturer for a conference.

- the statutary hôtel defray is 45 €. This is not enough for a decent hotel. This sum is decided in Paris, and regulated at national level by the ministery. Yup : even when a small provincial university invites someone, the budget is decided by the central administration -- even for 45€.
- Same chore for restaurant. Yes : meals require to fill another set of printed forms, and send them to Paris. You can't regroup hôtel and restaurant, it's another procedure.
- the statutary pay for one-time lectures is 52€ per hour. Most conferences are short (but requires a lot of work anyway). It means the lecturer can work during weeks for 52€. You can't regroup this with hôtel or restaurant defray, it's once again another procedure.
- All of this requires to push a lot of printed forms from the local university to Paris, back and forth.
- These printed forms must be filled and signed by the lecturer himself/herself. If you invites a Nobel prize winner, if he/she accepts to sleep in a third rate motel, if he/she accepts to work for 52€.... it's not enough. He/She will have to make all the paperwork, by himself/herself.
- In the best of case, the whole procedure takes 3 monthes. In the worst of case, it can last for a year.

I give these personal examples to make you feel the sheer absurdity of french administration. It is not only a few troubles you might experience with bureaucracy. Everything, every small errand, every step you make, every project you have requires you to send dozains of printed forms to dozains of different administrations. France today is roughly in the same shape than Soviet Union in the late eighties. We are talking about a dying regime here, with the risk of massive riots becoming real.

The system is so paralyzed that it can't change by itself. If Royal or Bayrou win, they won't be able to change anything because they'll need the support of bureaucracy. If Sarkozy wins, he will be unable to do anything because the bureaucracy will block any change, dubbing it as "imperialist" and "ultra-capitalist".

---------------------------
(1) And I could add rectorats (=Education nationale subsystem), justice subsystem, health care subsystem, IRS subsystem and so on, which don't fit with the other administrative districts. For exemple, you don't have a "rectorat" per region.

(2) Except, probably, the US electoral system. Imagine EVERYTHING working as bad as your electoral system. That's France.

(3) Unemployement is very high in France, but boy, it sure is a benecifial business for countless numbers of psychologists, social assistants, counsellors, advisers, human ressource specialists... At least, they have a job.

[Nanbawan]

Damn, I should have posted it for the referendum in 2005 ; it would have been more on target...

Anyway.

xym7RlVhzzo

[Douai]

Nicolas Sarkozy et ses soutiens centristes s'attaquent à "l'imposture" Bayrou

Comme attendu, la réunion publique tenue par Nicolas Sarkozy, mercredi 18 avril, à Issy-les-Moulineaux (Hauts-de-Seine) fut un réquisitoire à charge contre François Bayrou. Dans le fief d'André Santini, et épaulé par Simone Veil et Gilles de Robien, ses principaux soutiens centristes, le candidat de l'UMP a vivement critiqué le candidat UDF et sa stratégie d'union nationale.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-898192,0.html

Le Pen prédit un "deuxième 21 avril" au premier tour de la présidentielle

Dans un entretien au quotidien Metro du jeudi 19 avril, le candidat du Front national, Jean-Marie Le Pen, se dit convaincu d'être présent au second tour de l'élection présidentielle. Interrogé sur la pertinence des sondages qui le donnent absent, il déclare qu'"il y aura un deuxième 21 avril et peut-être même un Jospin 2007". Quant au candidat UMP, "Nicolas Sarkozy est donné gagnant en toute certitude mais est-ce si sûr ?" s'interroge M. Le Pen.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-898214,0.html

[Nanbawan]

http://cartoons.courrierinternational.com/illustrations/dessin/2007/04/i73033Kazanevsky.jpg

http://cartoons.courrierinternational.com//dessins/dessin.asp?obj_id=73033

[Douai]

3,3 millions d'électeurs inscrits en plus par rapport à 2002

L'équation à 44 508 024 inconnues - soit le nombre d'électeurs inscrits sur les listes - pour déterminer qui seront les deux finalistes pour le second tour sera résolue dimanche 22 avril après la clôture des derniers bureaux de vote à 20 heures. Le ministère de l'intérieur a prévu plus de 5 millions de tonnes d'enveloppes et de bulletins - imprimés sur papier recyclé - pour permettre aux électeurs d'effectuer leur choix. Dans 82 communes, néanmoins, représentant 1,5 million d'électeurs, le vote aura lieu grâce à des machines à voter. Revue des principales clés du scrutin.

http://www.lemonde.fr/web/article/0,1-0@2-823448,36-899605,0.html

[Douai]

Les Français votent aujourd'hui

dimanche, 22 avril 2007

Près d'un million de Français vivant hors de l'Hexagone ont déjà voté samedi pour le premier tour de l'élection présidentielle. Aujourd'hui, c'est au tour des électeurs de la métropole de se rendre aux urnes. EDITION SPECIALE CE SOIR A PARTIR DE 19H.

http://france24.fr

[Douai]

PARIS (AFP)
22 Avril 2007 20h32

Présidentielle: Sarkozy et Royal qualifiés pour le second tour

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP), avec 29,5% à 30% des voix, et Ségolène Royal (PS), de 25,2% à 26,3%, se sont qualifiés dimanche pour le second tour de la présidentielle, devant l'UDF François Bayrou (17,9% à 18,8%) et Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN, 10,6% à 11,5%), selon les estimations des instituts de sondages.

http://www.radiofrance.fr/chaines/france-info/depeches/index.php

[Douai]

I am surprised that Royal survived.I thought Le Pen or Bayrou would do better than her.I think Sarkozy will take it in the second tour.

[AfrcnHrbMan]

Yea i'm pretty sure Sarko has it now. Hes gonna get all of Lepen's votes and most of Bayrou's.

[Nanbawan]

Yea i'm pretty sure Sarko has it now.

Gotta say, he's in strong position.

Hes gonna get all of Lepen's votes

Given the multiple motivations of the Le Pen electorate (2/3 of those who vote for him would not want him for president...), it's difficult to have a clear projection.

and most of Bayrou's.

What kind of negociations will there be between the UDF and the PS ? That's the question. If Bayrou's coherent, he should go with the Socialists. Are the Socialists willing to compromise a clear choice on the Left ? Well, given the fact that many left voters will never vote for Sarko anyway, the PS might have a little margin there.

[Anthony]

Is it just me, or are the Socialists breathing an huge sigh of relief right now.

[Pierre-Henri]

And the surprise is ... there is no surprise.

[guignol]

PARIS (AFP) 22 Avril 2007 20h32

Présidentielle: Sarkozy et Royal qualifiés pour le second tour

Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP), avec 29,5% à 30% des voix, et Ségolène Royal (PS), de 25,2% à 26,3%, se sont qualifiés dimanche pour le second tour de la présidentielle, devant l'UDF François Bayrou (17,9% à 18,8%) et Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN, 10,6% à 11,5%), selon les estimations des instituts de sondages.

I am surprised that Royal survived.I thought Le Pen or Bayrou would do better than her.I think Sarkozy will take it in the second tour.


Yea i'm pretty sure Sarko has it now. Hes gonna get all of Lepen's votes and most of Bayrou's.this is not certain by any means, and despite the gap between nico sarko and mari-ségo in this round, the 2nd should be very close. le pen's weak score was in a way predictable. first of all, we have him to thank for yesterday's record turnout, as the french electorate said "never again". second, a part of the protest vote he got in 2002 was drained off by sarkozy... what is left is in large part diehard frontistes, many of whom simply won't vote at all in 2 weeks.

as for bayrou's vote, it will take some polling to grasp where it will go. his backslide compared to some polls is due to "protest votes" turning into "useful votes", and as the socialists had the most to fear, most of this movement probably went their way; but of what remained there's still a large proportion that will go left. i'm not sure what effect an endorsment would have, as people voted more for the ideas than the man i think.

now for the fringe candidates. for the offbeat ones like nihous, the vote will split, there's no real left-right to it. le villier's will go to sarko, but the greens will go ségo. and although neither arlette or olivier are likely to give and endorsement, the PCF certainly will.

[Anthony]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/40/Franceelectionmap07rnd1.png/300px-Franceelectionmap07rnd1.png

A question for the Bretons.

I thought that Brittany was fairly conservative, yet according to this electoral map, Royal did very well there, winning most of the Departments.

Also, IIRC, Brittany was the one place outside Paris where the "Yes" vote won in the EU referendum.

Am I mistaken on Brittany's politics or is the region changing?

[Nanbawan]

A question for the Bretons.



I tried to answer your question there (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11341916&postcount=74).

Shrewd guy, that's quite a relevant (and complex) one.

[Anthony]

Bayrou has announced (http://www.eursoc.com/news/fullstory.php/aid/1547/Bayrou's_Choice.html) that he is not endorsing either candidate in the run off.

[Douai]

I saw Valéry Giscard d'Estaing support Sarkozy at a rally on today's edition of France 2's 20 H.