MATCHDAY 14: Champions League Predictions [R]

[kevbrunton]

Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter
Barcelona v. Juventus

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax
Man. United v. Madrid


It occurs to me that we could have extra time and penalties at this stage of the competition. Should we limit our predictions to the regular time game -- or should we factor in the extra time and penalties that may come into play in an aggregate tie.

Part of me says that we should just limit this to the actual games. But another part says that if your prediction (the correct score) would be such that the game would go into ET and/or Penalties, you should get a bonus for correctly predicting the final result.

What do you guys think?

[AFCA]

Originally posted by kevbrunton But another part says that if your prediction (the correct score) would be such that the game would go into ET and/or Penalties, you should get a bonus for correctly predicting the final result.

What do you guys think? [/B]

Sounds reasonable to me.

[AFCA]

Tue, 22-Apr

Valencia v. Inter 3-1
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-0

Wed, 23-Apr

Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 2-1

[Dr. Wankler]

Originally posted by kevbrunton
Part of me says that we should just limit this to the actual games. But another part says that if your prediction (the correct score) would be such that the game would go into ET and/or Penalties, you should get a bonus for correctly predicting the final result.

What do you guys think?

By "bonus," do you mean that you get the points for predicting the correct result, regardless of whether your ET/PK predictions work out, or if you get the wrong results you wind up getting a bagel for the match?

Example. Say I predict Man U 3-1 Real Madrid , a scoreless ET period, and Real through on PKs 4-2. But then Man U scores one in extra time. Do I get zero points or what?

And when it comes to getting zero points, believe me, I know all about it! ;)

[Canadian_Supporter]

Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 1-1
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-1

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 2-0
Man. United v. Madrid 1-1

[IASocFan]

Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 1-0 (Inter on PKs)
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-1

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 1-2

[gento]

Tue, 22-Apr

Valencia v. Inter 1-1
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-2

Wed, 23-Apr

Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 2-2

[jd6885]

Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 2-1
Barcelona v. Juventus 1-2 golden goal

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 3-1 ManU wins on PK


I think if we predict that the games will go into overtime, we should earn bonuses for guessing how the team wins-by golden goal or pk's. I don't think we should say what the pk score will be b/c it might just mess up your program, just simply say so-and-so wins on PK. Also, if we say that the game will be decided on golden goal, but the actual game didn't go into golden goal but was won by a 1 goal margin, the whole score shouldn't be zero; rather, correctly predicting a golden goal or PK victory will be double points because it's harder to predict that.

[Dave216J]

Tue, 22-Apr

Valencia v. Inter 1-0, Valencia 2-0 A.E.T.
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-1

Wed, 23-Apr

Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. U v. Madrid 1-2

[babytiger2001]

Originally posted by jd6885
I think if we predict that the games will go into overtime, we should earn bonuses for guessing how the team wins-by golden goal or pk's.

Sounds like a great idea, as long as we can all work something out-- let's say, over the next few days.

I think something like this would give those who are out of contention-- such as myself! :D -- a little something extra to play for, in the way of an end-of-competition pride.

[unclesox]

Originally posted by kevbrunton
Part of me says that we should just limit this to the actual games. But another part says that if your prediction (the correct score) would be such that the game would go into ET and/or Penalties, you should get a bonus for correctly predicting the final result.

What do you guys think?
Re: Golden Goals
I don't believe UEFA institutes the Golden Goal rule during the knockout stages.
If memory serves, back in 2000 (?) Chelsea met Barcelona in the quarter-finals...
1st leg: 3-1 to Chelsea
2nd leg: 3-1 to Barca. In extra-time, Barca score TWICE to win 5-1 on the night, 6-4 overall.

I like the original scoring method suggested by kevbrunton. (I've quoted above)
And Dave216J incorperated it nicely.

- We should predict the result after 90mins and recieve points accordingly.
- If your 90min prediction suggests extra-time, include your prediction after extra time. (see Dave216J) If you think no goals aet, state who'll win penalties (not score of shootout)

I just don't know how many "bonus" points to award if someone correctly predicts a correct result/score aet and/or penalties. :confused:
Just my opinion.
Capish? :)

[jd6885]

Originally posted by unclesox


- We should predict the result after 90mins and recieve points accordingly.
- If your 90min prediction suggests extra-time, include your prediction after extra time. (see Dave216J) If you think no goals aet, state who'll win penalties (not score of shootout)

I just don't know how many "bonus" points to award if someone correctly predicts a correct result/score aet and/or penalties. :confused:
Just my opinion.
Capish? :)

Ok, just put down your result and then state if they will win by pks or overtime accordingly. I say just double the points you get for that game as your bonus. (like if you guess the correct result, double the "correct result" points, but if you get the correct scores, double the "correct score points"; however if you guess correctly that the game will go into pks, there are two scenarios:

1)You correctly guess who wins the PKS=2x"Correct scores" points

2)You incorrectly guess who wins the PKS="correct scores" points w/o the bonus because you still got the scores right but not the right result...you see?

But I'm wondering, is it possible for ... let's say, ManU and Real to go into pks if Real comes back with 1 goal in extratime and makes it 3-2? They would win by away goals then wouldn't they?

[unclesox]

Originally posted by jd6885
But I'm wondering, is it possible for ... let's say, ManU and Real to go into pks if Real comes back with 1 goal in extratime and makes it 3-2? They would win by away goals then wouldn't they?
Well, in your example, Real would win 5-4 on aggregate.
However, I see what you're suggesting.
Indeed, penalties can no longer be considered once a goal has been scored in extra-time -- regardless of which side scored it (home or away) or if the other side replies with a goal of their own (at which point 'away goals' comes into play).

[Belgian guy]

Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 2-1
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-0

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 1-2

[kevbrunton]

OK, let's do this...

Make the game prediction -- that is predict the result of JUST THIS GAME over 90 minutes.

Then, if your prediction COULD result in a draw in aggregate, you should ALSO predict the eventual winner. If you correctly predict the winner, I'd suggest a 7 point bonus (i.e., points for a correct result).

Some examples may be easier than trying to explain it all out...

Suppose you predict ManU 3-1 Madrid. In that case, you should also predict who would advance. It doesn't matter how whether you pick via a goal in ET or via PKs. Then ManU does win 3-1. At that point, you've earned 11 points for correct score. If you correctly predict who advances, then you get another 7 points.

Suppose you predict ManU 2-1 Madrid. In this case, you should ALSO predict an eventual winner in case you get the RESULT correct but miss the score. In this situation, ManU goes ahead and wins 3-1. At that point, you've earned 7 points for the correct result and if you correctly pick the team to advance, then you'd get another 7 points.

If you get the game completely wrong, then no bonus points available. In other words, if you predict a Madrid victory or a draw and Man U winds up winning 3-1 to force extra time, then you earned nothing for the game result and no opportunity for bonus exists.

[kevbrunton]

Based upon the previous post, if you are predicting a WIN for ManU or Valencia -- regardless of what score you are predicting -- you also need to predict the team to advance should extra time and penalties be required.

If you are predicting a draw in the Barca v. Juve game or in the Milan v. Ajax game, then again, you need to to predict the advancing team regardless of what score you predict for the draw.

In other words, if you are predicting a 1-1 draw in Milan v. Ajax -- no extra time would be required if that's the way it comes out because Ajax would advance on the away goal. However, if you predict 1-1 and it winds up 0-0, you can still earn bonus points for correctly predicting the team to advance after ET/PK's.

[unclesox]

Originally posted by kevbrunton
OK, let's do this...

Make the game prediction -- that is predict the result of JUST THIS GAME over 90 minutes.

Then, if your prediction COULD result in a draw in aggregate, you should ALSO predict the eventual winner. If you correctly predict the winner, I'd suggest a 7 point bonus (i.e., points for a correct result).

Some examples may be easier than trying to explain it all out...

Suppose you predict ManU 3-1 Madrid. In that case, you should also predict who would advance. It doesn't matter how whether you pick via a goal in ET or via PKs. Then ManU does win 3-1. At that point, you've earned 11 points for correct score. If you correctly predict who advances, then you get another 7 points.

Suppose you predict ManU 2-1 Madrid. In this case, you should ALSO predict an eventual winner in case you get the RESULT correct but miss the score. In this situation, ManU goes ahead and wins 3-1. At that point, you've earned 7 points for the correct result and if you correctly pick the team to advance, then you'd get another 7 points.

If you get the game completely wrong, then no bonus points available. In other words, if you predict a Madrid victory or a draw and Man U winds up winning 3-1 to force extra time, then you earned nothing for the game result and no opportunity for bonus exists.

So to clarify, let's say ManU wins 3-1 and ManU advance by whatever method:

- Whoever picked ManU 2-1 (Real advance) would earn 7 pts total

- Whoever picked ManU 3-1 (Real advance) would earn 11

- Whoever picked ManU 2-1 (ManU advance) would earn 14

- Whoever picked ManU 3-1 (ManU advance) would earn 18

Right?
Sounds good to me. :)

[kevbrunton]

Originally posted by unclesox
So to clarify, let's say ManU wins 3-1 and ManU advance by whatever method:

- Whoever picked ManU 2-1 (Real advance) would earn 7 pts total

- Whoever picked ManU 3-1 (Real advance) would earn 11

- Whoever picked ManU 2-1 (ManU advance) would earn 14

- Whoever picked ManU 3-1 (ManU advance) would earn 18

Right?
Sounds good to me. :)
Exactly right.

[IASocFan]

Originally posted by IASocFan
Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 1-0 (Inter on PKs)
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-1

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 1-2

Ajax advances on their away goal! :)

[kevbrunton]

Originally posted by IASocFan
Tue, 22-Apr
Valencia v. Inter 1-0 (Inter on PKs)
Barcelona v. Juventus 2-1

Wed, 23-Apr
Milan v. Ajax 1-1
Man. United v. Madrid 1-2

Ajax advances on their away goal! :)

Tom,

The way this works, is that you are picking the 90 minute result. So you pick Milan & Ajax to draw 1-1. If that happens, you'll get 11 points for the correct score. However, if they draw 0-0, you still have a correct result and would still be eligible for the bonus of correctly picking the team to adance after extra time and penalties.

So if you are picking them to draw, also pick a team to advance to possible earn a bonus if you are wrong about the score but right about the result.

Kevin