Where will Reading be come the new year?

[mschofield]

Okay, so on 13 points after the first seven, Reading are sitting in 7th (separted from 4th by goal difference (Reading has a +2)), which frankly is pretty impressive. They are, however, just starting the dreaded run against the top of the table. Still, well done thus far.
How will they fare over the next couple months, though? It's becoming possible, i think to begin to look relatively safe before the New Year. At the current points pace, 30 is enough for survival. That will increase, it looks like this will not be another 42 points and relegated season. Mid 30s should really be enough to stay up, as a lot of teams aren't playing well.
And Reading is proving to be pretty effective this season, again, esp the defense lately,back to last year's compact, organized form, and the offense is scoring.
The upcoming games, however, look very much like my high school girlfriends, fun to look at but hardly easy.
The schedule looks like this:
Oct:
H-Chels
H-Arse
A-Ports
Nov:
A-'pool
H-hotspurs
H-Charlton
A-Fulham
Dec:
H-Bolton
A-Newc
A-Watford
H-Blackburn
H-Everton
A-Chels
A-ManU
This puts them past midseason. Survival pace would demand about 19-20 points by this point, meaning 7 more.
How many, and where, will be pick up points.
Just to start things, I see them on 28 points by this time, and sailing.

[rms5555]

Oct:
H-Chels Probably a loss
H-Arse I think we can still pull points here even though the gunners are playing a little better now.
A-Ports At least a draw
Nov:
A-'pool I think we will either pull points here or knock them out of the Carling Cup, but not both.
H-hotspurs Win
H-Charlton Win
A-Fulham Definatly points, maybe even a win
Dec:
H-Bolton Win
A-Newc Draw
A-Watford Draw
H-Blackburn Win
H-Everton Win
A-Chels Loss
A-ManU Loss

That gets us 20 additional points, 33 total, by midseason if I'm right. I am an optimist :)

[prvev]

H-Chels-L
H-Arse-L
A-Ports-T
Nov:
A-'pool-L
H-hotspurs-W
H-Charlton-W
A-Fulham-T
Dec:
H-Bolton-T
A-Newc-L
A-Watford-W
H-Blackburn-T
H-Everton-T
A-Chels-L
A-ManU-L

14 points from me, which would make 27. But I think thats a pretty pessimistic guess.

[Supersuperman99]

the way reading has been playing thers no reason for them not to get points against the big 4. I like this squad they have alot going for themselves why not think that they can be fighting for a place in Europe (UEFA Cup).

[mschofield]

H-Chels-L
H-Arse-L
A-Ports-T
Nov:
A-'pool-L
H-hotspurs-W
H-Charlton-W
A-Fulham-T
Dec:
H-Bolton-T
A-Newc-L
A-Watford-W
H-Blackburn-T
H-Everton-T
A-Chels-L
A-ManU-L

14 points from me, which would make 27. But I think thats a pretty pessimistic guess.
It does seem pessimistic, but just points out how much this start has meant. If they're sitting on 27 points, with 17 games to go, they're up. If they're sitting on 20 points with 17 games to go, they've got a good chance. The intitial 13 give Reading a lot of room for hope.
BTW, love to see a run at Europe, but anything more than survival is a huge bonus. I'm as happy at 17 as i am at 7 (though I would like to encourage a top 14 finish for purely, uhm, sentimental (not betting, never, no, not betting, at all,err) reasons.

[RichardL]

the way reading has been playing thers no reason for them not to get points against the big 4. I like this squad they have alot going for themselves why not think that they can be fighting for a place in Europe (UEFA Cup).
Reading qualifying for the UEFA Cup could be worth a sneaky bet. To be honest I think they'll fall a fair way short of the 7th or 8th place needed for that, but every year there's a draw for "wild card" entries based on the winners of each country's fair play award. Reading currently head that table and I think it's very likely that they'll still be there at the end of the season too.

[RichardL]

It does seem pessimistic, but just points out how much this start has meant. If they're sitting on 27 points, with 17 games to go, they're up..
you can't always be sure. 1997/8 Reading had 39 points from 29 games. 10 points from 17 games should have been enough. Instead they lost 15 of those 17 and went down.

Mind you, I'd happily settle for 27 points with 17 games left.

[Pablo Chicago]

I think 27 points is doable.

Wins against the Spurs, Charlton, and Watford are expected, and I'm going to say the Royals can pick up another home win against Bolton or Blackburn. That's 12 right there. Add a couple of draws and we're sitting pretty at 27.

[mschofield]

On the face of it, we're predicting, worst case scenario, Reading will be on 21 points by the new year. Best case scenario, 37 (which would keep them in the thick of the euro places race, maybe as high as fourth or fifth).
However, using the science of bad math, which frankly is all I've got, (we'll say a simple majority means we've collectively see points, while an overwhelming (66.6 percent) majority means a win, we're predicting six wins and two ties (this is really bad math, as folks predicting points can be predicting ties, but I'm bored), which would put us at 33 points.:) :D
Man, I love this board.

[mschofield]

Wow, we were pessimistic.:) :) :)