Could the USA qualify to the WC out of Comnebol?

[vico]

Originally posted by Bruce S
what I have learned from this thread: COMNEBOL fans have no respect for CONCACAF. Nor do they know anything about it!

what i have learned from this thread is that gringos don't have any respect for conmebol. nor do they know anything about it!

they cannot even differ between peru and paraguay and chile...

[Heist]

Originally posted by vico
what i have learned from this thread is that gringos don't have any respect for conmebol. nor do they know anything about it!

they cannot even differ between peru and paraguay and chile...
I am "gringo". Here's my take.
The US is far better than the current Chilean and Peruvian team and about on par with Paraguay, although the US results over the past year have been better than Paraguay's.
Peru has never been very good at soccer on an international scale. Chile has been very good at times in the past and even has some very talented individual players, but is often outclassed by other teams in CONMEBOL since they were last any good in '98 or so (despite a big win in Santiago over Brazil a couple of years ago I still believe this).
I feel that's a fair representation of those teams.

[Martin Fischer]

Originally posted by vico
what i have learned from this thread is that gringos don't have any respect for conmebol. nor do they know anything about it!

they cannot even differ between peru and paraguay and chile...

What do you want to know about Peruvian soccer? Let this Gringo know.

[El_Maestro]

Geez, here we go again.

What is with you gringos that want everyone to tell you that you are the best thing that happened to football since Rinus Mitchel's Holland.

Yeah, you got to the quarterfinals in the WC. Well, South Korea got to the semis. Do you know when the Koreans are doing that again? I thought so.

Look, the Conmebol qualifiers are very tough, and not only that, they are loooong, two years of playing monthly, having two or three solid games in a row is not gonna do it. It's like a marathon, and as far as I know, you guys don't have such a big roster.

Let's say you lose Reyna because of an injury (which seems to be happening a lot lately) and crybaby Donovan for talking back to the ref, what are you gonna do?

Sure you COULD do it, anything is possible in football, I'm just saying it would be extremely hard.

I'm not gonna mention the climate and atmosphere aspects 'cause a lot of people has done so already, I'm just telling you the same thing I tell the Mexicans, be glad you're in Concacaf.

[Riotom9]

Originally posted by Bruce S
But don't you COMEBOL fans realize that this is EXACTLY what it is like in CEntral America??
By the way, Jamaica just played Peru yesterday. It was 2-0 Jamaica.

Yes, but the South American teams are of better quality than most of the Central American teams. You can say all you want about Costa Rica and Honduras, but we're talking about 5 teams (Uruguay, Paraguay, Chile, Peru, Colombia) that have consistently been as good as or better than all C. American teams, (Mexico obviously the best one) for 50-70 years. Jamaica, Costa Rica, Honduras are all flashes in the pan in comparison. In 5 years one of those teams will be heading back down again in quality. The South Americans just have so much talent and depth in the quality of their players.

It was less than a decade ago the Colombia was favored by many to win the World Cup. Chile was starting Salas and Zambrano in their prime together - and that should scare the hell out of any and every defense in the world.

The USA would have a difficult time qualifying, but of course it would be possible. In ten years we'd have the depth to qualify consistently. I just remember how horrible our team looked playing against Costa Rica, and the struggles we had on the road to teams that weren't exactly powerhouses before the Hex.

I love the USA, but let's be realistic, and attempt to compare the teams, and throw all friendly results out the window. Nothing is easy in qualifying down there.

[Riotom9]

Originally posted by Soccernva78
You're also putting the U.S. in a no-win situation with your arguments. You say that the U.S. is always facing injuries and its something that has to be dealt with. Yet when I bring up the fact that they indeed dealt with it and qualified you say well they were only able to deal with it because of the weakness of CONCACAF. Throughout WC qualifying the U.S. compensated for injuries, they're just a fact of life and they would remain so in CONMEBOL.
But unless you think that teams like Paraguay, Chile, Uruguay and Colombia are much deeper than the U.S. there's no reason to believe that the U.S. wouldn't be able to qualify in S America.


Well, it is my contention that those teams are indeed much deeper than the US. And that is one reason that puts us at a disadvantage until our younger talent gets of age. Our 'second string' just doesn't have the experience, and is very questionable on skill to play at the international level. We're miles ahead of where we were 5 years ago, but when all of the other countries have players on the bench that can actually finish a pass and possess the ball, it makes a big difference when injuries come up.

And as much as I love the USA team, I've told everyone we're just starting to peak, I just want to remind everyone that touts off about how good we are because we made the final 8, that we could have easily gone home in the first round. Judge the team by our performances, and not solely where we finished. We had an up tournament that's for sure, but no one should be seeing we're ready to join France and Argentina just because they crapped out this time.

[ojsgillt]

Ofcourse we could. If we were in Conmebol, then we would be in South America. We would also have South America's ethics about bribery. We have a lot of money to be thrown around.

[Soccernova78]

Originally posted by Riotom9
Well, it is my contention that those teams are indeed much deeper than the US. And that is one reason that puts us at a disadvantage until our younger talent gets of age. Our 'second string' just doesn't have the experience, and is very questionable on skill to play at the international level. We're miles ahead of where we were 5 years ago, but when all of the other countries have players on the bench that can actually finish a pass and possess the ball, it makes a big difference when injuries come up.

And as much as I love the USA team, I've told everyone we're just starting to peak, I just want to remind everyone that touts off about how good we are because we made the final 8, that we could have easily gone home in the first round. Judge the team by our performances, and not solely where we finished. We had an up tournament that's for sure, but no one should be seeing we're ready to join France and Argentina just because they crapped out this time.

Well let's look at (arguably) our first choice team at the beginning of the qualifying cycle last time.

Forwards: McBride, Moore

Midfield: Stewart, Reyna, Jones, Armas

Defense: Regis, Sanneh, Agoos, Pope

Goalie: Friedel

That left such "second stringers" as Donovan, Mathis, Wolff, Lewis, O'Brien, Berhalter, LLamosa, Cherundolo and Keller among others who contributed when we were hit with injuries. These players had skill and could in my opinion "finish a pass and possess the ball" with any second stringers in South America (excepting of course Brazil and Argentina). Just look at some of the friendly results we've had against those teams with our "B" teams recently. Certainly we match up skill wise rather well with their "B" teams.

And its not just our quarterfinal finish in last year's WC which makes me confident we could qualify. U.S. national teams have been getting good results on all levels since the '98 WC. The U.S. made it to the semis in the U-17 WC in '99, the semis at Confederations Cup in '99 and the semis at the 2000 Olympics. Outside of the big two which South American teams can point to such a record over the past 4 years? Throw in our semifinal appearance at the Copa America against South American competition back in the Dark Ages of '95 and the U.S. IMO looks to have a decent chance of qualifying from COMNEBOL.

[pololo]

Originally posted by condor11
athmospheres and location do make a difference
just ask brazil

u know the world champs that struggled to get points away from home and at home

of course the usa will have no such problems

We all know the USA are Rambos,just ask the americans.

[speedcake]

why are people still bothering to post in this thread? by now every argument than can be made has been made and neither side is ever, ever, ever going to give. Someone move this thread to rivalries or something. waste of space.

[striker]

Originally posted by speedcake
why are people still bothering to post in this thread? by now every argument than can be made has been made and neither side is ever, ever, ever going to give. Someone move this thread to rivalries or something. waste of space.

This goes for most threads here. Most posters, including myself, rarely change our opinions through the course of a single thread discussion/babbling.

[condor11]

Originally posted by Heist

Peru has never been very good at soccer on an international scale.

top 8 in two world cups
2 copa americas

thats the 4th best record in south america

after the big 3

paraguay have won 2 copas but to my knowledge have not made the quarter finals

chile has made the world cup semi finals but have never won a copa america

colombia has won 1 copa and never made the last 8

so compared to our neighbours we havnt done to bad

[Juan Luis Guerra]

For safety reason, have a a conmebol team requested to FiFA to play in Santa Cruz Bolivia rather than La Paz? I mean, any player who is not use to play under this condition could well die in the process.

[Heist]

Originally posted by condor11
top 8 in two world cups
2 copa americas
Making the top 8 is very difficult when the total number of teams is 16. :)

I got a little curious about how "well" Peru has done in the World Cup
http://www.neilandlaure.com/worldcup/peru.html
They got out of the first round in '70 and out of the first group in '78 only to be crushed in the second group phase. Their record was worse than I had even thought...

Copa America wins are something, but they don't make them better than their South American neighbors? It makes their past record comparable to Chile, Colombia, and Paraguay although I'm pretty sure most fans would agree those teams have (at least in the past few decades) been quite a bit better than Peru. I don't know where to get all-time records for teams, but i'd bet at least two of those teams have better (or far-better) records than Peru. All three might have better overall records.

I still say Peru has never been very good, but i'll grant you that they were better in the 70's than they are now.

[deejay]

Originally posted by Heist
I still say Peru has never been very good, but i'll grant you that they were better in the 70's than they are now.

In the 70's Peru is what Colombia was in the 90's.

It was a truly marvelous team and a joy to watch.

[Adam Zebrowski]

The Peru team of the 70's were the 3rd best side in COMNEBOL after Brazil and Argentina...

watch the tapes of them play..

the WC match in 1970 between Brazil and Peru is amongst the best ever.

And Peru has a huge edge playing in Lima...

Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador would be difficult places to travel for the USA...

think Azteca and you understand the edge...

pluc USA isn't sufficiently better than those 3 to walk in and get road points.

[LMvCP]

Originally posted by Heist
I still say Peru has never been very good, but i'll grant you that they were better in the 70's than they are now.

I agree, Peru have lost a step... but Peru was a good team back in the day. Dont let Argentina, Uruguay, or Brazil's accomplishments shadow Peru's history.

I jut dont think the US could qualify out of CONMEBOL.

Format: everybody against everybody is tough way to do it. I just dont see the US getting anymore than 5 points in South America. Plus, some of the south american teams will have a good amount of supporters in the US.

League: Something that has not really been mentioned, but MLS is played from April to September. what happens when MLS is not in progress? The players could lack some rythm.

Atmosphere: Going into BA or Sao Paolo or Santiago or Montevideo can be intimidating.

[Juan Luis Guerra]

Originally posted by rdl674
I agree, Peru have lost a step... but Peru was a good team back in the day. Dont let Argentina, Uruguay, or Brazil's accomplishments shadow Peru's history.

I jut dont think the US could qualify out of CONMEBOL.

Format: everybody against everybody is tough way to do it. I just dont see the US getting anymore than 5 points in South America. Plus, some of the south american teams will have a good amount of supporters in the US.

League: Something that has not really been mentioned, but MLS is played from April to September. what happens when MLS is not in progress? The players could lack some rythm.

Atmosphere: Going into BA or Sao Paolo or Santiago or Montevideo can be intimidating.

I see your point, but I just think that if USA cant qualify in Conmebo, neither Mexico could. USA did great in LA Copa America, world Cup. Went to South America and defeat Chile, etc.... I think that both Mexico and USA could qualify. I see the following teams qualifying assuming that there are 5 spots:

1- Argentina
2- Brazil
3- Paraguay
4- USA
5- Mexico lindo

If there were 8 spots. Then this is my list:

1- Argentina
2- Brazil
3- Paraguay
4- USA
5- Mexico lindo
6- Colombia
7- Uruguay
8- Ecuador

[Heist]

Its not as if the US can't win or tie in a hostile environment when it is the superior team...

I see them winning at two of these countries: Peru, Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia. I also see them tying two of those games.

I see them potentially winning one in: Uruguay, Paraguay, Colombia. They may not, but they'd have a chance. If they don't win they would tie at least one of those games.

My best guess is 7-11 points from 8 games. That would put them in good shape I think.

Of course this is all hypothetical and the US is very lucky it is in a confederation where it will continue to qualify for every World Cup if it plays as well as it should and nothing crazy happens. That doesn't mean its easy, but it does mean that the US is a clear favorite to qualify every time. The same can't be said for most teams in CONMEBOL due to the relative parity among the bottom 8 teams.

[LMvCP]

Originally posted by Juan Luis Guerra
I see your point, but I just think that if USA cant qualify in Conmebo, neither Mexico could.

:eek:

Mexico could and would qualify. They have been getting points down there and have been consistant in doing.

This isnt one of those "if you can beat him, we can beat them" type of tthings. This isnt a p1ssing contest JLG.

USA did great in LA Copa America, world Cup.

A qualifying process is alot different than a group stage tournament where you take your chances with one powerhouse team and look for some luck. Its continuing process.. its a 2 year process.. rather than a month long tournament. I just dont think the US could. I staed the reasons for it and.. in those 2 years....injuries will occur.

Went to South America and defeat Chile, etc....

basing this on a firendly?

I think that both Mexico and USA could qualify. I see the following teams qualifying assuming that there are 5 spots:

1- Argentina
2- Brazil
3- Paraguay
4- USA
5- Mexico lindo

Do you honestly believe that the US can get every point at home or at least 95% of them at home and get at 40% of road points? I don't. Do you think its always going to be feburary in Columbus? The US doesnt protect its home. Teams like Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico are almost impossible to beat at home. Paraguay and Uruguay are also no push overs when they play in thier backyard. Bolivia and Peru is no walk in the park and forget the altitude...

If there were 8 spots. Then this is my list:

1- Argentina
2- Brazil
3- Paraguay
4- USA
5- Mexico lindo
6- Colombia
7- Uruguay
8- Ecuador

The only way I see the US coming out... is if they have group stages and even then... it still would be an uphill battle.