Could the USA qualify to the WC out of Comnebol?

[Alex_1]

Originally posted by Heist
I doubt it would be the same for a South American team coming to the US. I could be wrong, but at least at RFK there aren't any communities the size of the Salvadoran or Honduran community around.
There are way fewer Chileans, Argentines, or Ecuadorans at least around here, and US Soccer could schedule so we don't have the same number of away games at home. Putting a game in Columbus like they did with Mexico would be one way to do it.
I'm not saying there wouldn't be any support for the visiting team, but instead of 40%-60% it would likely be more like 20%-30% most of the time. Still we won't have nearly the home field advantage as other teams in CONCACAF or CONMEBOL.

You'd be surprised I think. It seems like every time a South American national team comes to the United States, the fans come out of the woodwork + places you hadn't even thought of!

Then again, it could just be people that support the opposition just for the sake of doing so. But I don't want this thread to go in that direction so I'll leave that can of worms sealed.

[Martin Cutler]

It would be extremely difficult for the US to qualify for the World Cup if they had to play in South America. Possible yes, likely no. If you guys think it is difficult playing in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica that is a cake walk compared to playing a World Cup qualifier in Asuncion, Paraguay; Quito, Ecuador; La Paz, Bolivia; Barranquilla, Colombia, Montevideo, Uruguay. That's not to mention playing away to Brazil and Argentina.

Qualifying in South America is the most difficult in the world. Just look at the troubles the eventual world champions had last time in qualifying.

Yes, the US has made drastic improvements and are a much better organized and skillful team than before but traveling to South America for World Cup qualifers is a whole different story and frankly I think the only places where they US could reasonably be considered able to gain any points on the road would be Venezuela, Peru and Chile and none of those would be guaranteed (except possibly Venezuela).

At home the US would do better but would still have a very difficult time playing teams like Colombia, Paraguay, Ecuador, Chile & Uruguay. Any points earned against Argentina & Brazil would be considered a major upset.

I agree with Alex that every South American nation, except Venezuela which isn't a soccer mad country, would have considerable support anywhere they'd play in the US.

I say to US fans just be thankful you're in CONCACAF and be even more grateful FIFA sent the region a lifeline by giving the area an additional playoff place.

[sch2383]

If our players were receiving death threats and the fans are as prone to riots and the such as you say (I'm not doubting you), I think we would see US Marines acting as security for our boys, and I pity any drunken idiot who tries mess with them. Plus any assault upon our players would rate as an international incident and we would bitch it FIFA, who would eventually give into us since so many US companies are large soccer supporters in the global community. I guess it’s good to live in a hegemonic nation.

[Soccernova78]

Would the U.S. qualify out of CONMEBOL? It's tough to say. We would have a good chance though given the improvement of our natonal team. Remember, in the '95 Copa America (back when near "A" teams were brought to the competition unlike the last one) the U.S. made the semi-finals and finished 4th. They beat Chile and spanked Argentina 3-0 to finish first in their group. Now granted Argentina started out with some second teamers, but after halftime when they were losing 2-0 they brought on guys like Batistuta, Balbo and Simeone and the U.S still managed to score another goal. The U.S. then beat Mexico on penalty kicks and managed a very respectable 1-0 loss to Brazil in the semi's. The fact is now the U.S. has a MUCH better and deeper team now than it did back then when it got such good results against South American competition in Uruguay. They also have a better coach. Also our most recent friendlies in South America during the Arena era have been positive. In '99 we, by all accounts, outplayed Bolivia and were unlucky not to win in a 0-0 tie and we beat Chile in Chile 2-1 in 2000. Add to that home victories against Argentina, Uruguay, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela during Arena's tenure and you get the impression that the U.S. matches up decently with S. American teams.

While I'm sure the away games in WCQers would be difficult and intense they couldn't be much worse than a visit to Azetca or Saprissa. Anyone who witnessed the madhouse that greeted the U.S. team in the '96 game against Costa Rica can attest to this. The U.S. players were pelted with batteries, bags of urine and other projectiles and if I remember correctly the Costa Rican Soccer Federation was fined by FIFA because of the hostile atmosphere which prevailed there. There's just as much hostility to us Yanks in Central America as there is in South America and the stadiums can be just as threatening.

It would be tough but other than the big two I think the U.S. would have just as good a chance as anybody to qualify from CONMEBOL.

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by Martin Cutler

It would be extremely difficult for the US to qualify for the World Cup if they had to play in South America. Possible yes, likely no. If you guys think it is difficult playing in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica that is a cake walk compared to playing a World Cup qualifier in Asuncion, Paraguay; Quito, Ecuador; La Paz, Bolivia; Barranquilla, Colombia, Montevideo, Uruguay. That's not to mention playing away to Brazil and Argentina.



Qualifying in South America is the most difficult in the world. Just look at the troubles the eventual world champions had last time in qualifying.



Yes, the US has made drastic improvements and are a much better organized and skillful team than before but traveling to South America for World Cup qualifers is a whole different story and frankly I think the only places where they US could reasonably be considered able to gain any points on the road would be Venezuela, Peru and Chile and none of those would be guaranteed (except possibly Venezuela).



At home the US would do better but would still have a very difficult time playing teams like Colombia, Paraguay, Ecuador, Chile & Uruguay. Any points earned against Argentina & Brazil would be considered a major upset.



I agree with Alex that every South American nation, except Venezuela which isn't a soccer mad country, would have considerable support anywhere they'd play in the US.



I say to US fans just be thankful you're in CONCACAF and be even more grateful FIFA sent the region a lifeline by giving the area an additional playoff place.

Total unmitigated rubbish. The CONCACAF was given another half spot BECAUSEWE HAD THE BEST RECORD OF ANY CONFED IN THE WORLD, INCLUDING COMEBOL, AT THE 2002 WC. I suppose USA being ranked ithe top 20 for the last several years in a FIFA conspiracy?

[Bruce S]

The lack of respect for CONCACAF is amusing. I thought people elsewhere had gotten the message but the good news is I guess the CONCACAF teams can suprise them again at 2006!!?

[loloy_vinotinto]

Originally posted by Bruce S
Total unmitigated rubbish. The CONCACAF was given another half spot BECAUSEWE HAD THE BEST RECORD OF ANY CONFED IN THE WORLD, INCLUDING COMEBOL, AT THE 2002 WC. I suppose USA being ranked ithe top 20 for the last several years in a FIFA conspiracy?

2 out of 3 to the 2nd round... 1 to the third... I'm sorry but that isn't amazing... yo wave this around like a flag, as if you guy's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd BUT you didn't...

1st Brazil (CONMEBOL)
2nd Germany (UEFA)
3rd Turkey (UEFA)
4th S. Korea (ASIA)

then with youg guys, England (UEFA), Senegal (Africa) and Spain (UEFA)... etc... etc...

the other from your confederation:
Mexico = Paraguay
and Costa Rica, pretty decent first stage run, until teh 5-2 trashing at the hands of Brasil (on neutral ground, not the Maracana)

that isn't so amazing... and should I bring up WC'98?

So let's not talk about the unfair FIFA apointment of participation.

Look for a wednesday's game Venezuela-Jamaica... we'll see the result

[condor11]

Originally posted by Bruce S
Total unmitigated rubbish. The CONCACAF was given another half spot BECAUSEWE HAD THE BEST RECORD OF ANY CONFED IN THE WORLD, INCLUDING COMEBOL, AT THE 2002 WC. I suppose USA being ranked ithe top 20 for the last several years in a FIFA conspiracy?

if thats your basis for handing out spot them why didnt concacaf get reduced to 2 after 98?

[condor11]

Originally posted by Bruce S
The lack of respect for CONCACAF is amusing. I thought people elsewhere had gotten the message but the good news is I guess the CONCACAF teams can suprise them again at 2006!!?
you are telling us we lack respect for concacaf
after telling us that the usa would just stroll trough conmebol qualifiers

[Alex_1]

Originally posted by condor11
if thats your basis for handing out spot them why didnt concacaf get reduced to 2 after 98?

I was going to mention the same thing. But I think someone has taken Bruce S's screenname - that cannot be the same poster.

Yes, CONCACAF did well in the World Cup this time. Maybe as a whole and percentage wise, better than CONMEBOL (I cannot be bothered to look up the stats because in the end, a CONMEBOL side won the entire tournament - and it was a CONMEBOL side that finished fourth in qualifying).

The issue at hand is qualifying through CONMEBOL, and I just don't see it being a bowl of cherries for a CONACAF side - and I definitely believe that South America would have the advantage logistically and, well, through experience and the other reasons I mentioned before. IMO, it would be easier for a MExico to qualify through CONMEBOL than it would be for the US. The importance of having a real home field advantage is tremendous - especially in CONMEBOL qualifying. THe points you maintain at home are the backbone of your sides success.

[MyHouse!]

Current state of affairs, I think we could make the playoffs.

The US simply does not fear South American teams, save for the Big 2. And the laughing and talk of gringos (though I still think I qualify as a "moreno" as opposed to gringo) is done to mask the fact that the US is becoming a very good National Side. Maybe not top 10 but very good.

An old friend of mine from Argentina explained why she was rooting for Brazil on July, 4, 1994 thusly: "The US dominates so much and if they become good in soccer, that wouldn't be a good thing."

I think that remains the sentiment and it motivates some of the negativity found in some of the comments from my S. American brothers.


Where the US would struggle is in the away games where fatigue becomes more a factor. After getting bags of urine thrown at them in CR or playing the middle of a jungle in Guatemala, or playing while simulataneously getting high in Kingston, the US doesn't fear going on the road much. Heck half of our home games are road games.

I think the US would do fine and produce some good results. Qualifying, unless you;re the class of your confederation as we and Mexico are in CONCACAF, always comes down to a little bit of luck. The US could qualify out of SA outright with such luck but I doubt they would have trouble making the playoff.

[Heist]

Originally posted by loloy_vinotinto
2 out of 3 to the 2nd round... 1 to the third... I'm sorry but that isn't amazing... yo wave this around like a flag, as if you guy's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd BUT you didn't...

1st Brazil (CONMEBOL)
2nd Germany (UEFA)
3rd Turkey (UEFA)
4th S. Korea (ASIA)

the other from your confederation:
Mexico = Paraguay
and Costa Rica, pretty decent first stage run, until teh 5-2 trashing at the hands of Brasil (on neutral ground, not the Maracana)

Look for a wednesday's game Venezuela-Jamaica... we'll see the result
Lets look at it another way.
ALL of the teams from CONCACAF showed well.
Even Costa Rica got better results than Argentina, Ecuador, and Uruguay. Paraguay did okay, but was in an easy group and was unimpressive. Of course Brazil played very well and won the whole thing, but does that make CONMEBOL good?

I think the reason CONCACAF got the extra half spot is because their teams performed well at the last WC. A better way to think about is, how did the worst team in any CONFED do.
Here are your candidates (as memory serves. Some teams might have had a worse record in some confeds):
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Slovenia
Ecuador
Costa Rica

Costa Rica is by far the best out of those.
I still can't figure out how Asia got an extra half team after the performance of China and Saudi Arabia... They should have split that half spot with Australia - with 5 Asia-Australia. The other half spot should have gone to CONMEBOL to playoff against the 4th place CONCACAF team. Imagine Uruguay-Honduras or Jamaica-Colombia or Ecuador-El Salvador. The winner from a home and home between any of those teams would deserve to be in the cup!

As an aside, if Venezuela plays like it did in the first half against the US it has a chance. If it doesn't, Jamaica will beat the Vinotintos.

[Heist]

Originally posted by Alex_1
I was going to mention the same thing. But I think someone has taken Bruce S's screenname - that cannot be the same poster.

Yes, CONCACAF did well in the World Cup this time. Maybe as a whole and percentage wise, better than CONMEBOL (I cannot be bothered to look up the stats because in the end, a CONMEBOL side won the entire tournament - and it was a CONMEBOL side that finished fourth in qualifying).

The issue at hand is qualifying through CONMEBOL, and I just don't see it being a bowl of cherries for a CONACAF side - and I definitely believe that South America would have the advantage logistically and, well, through experience and the other reasons I mentioned before. IMO, it would be easier for a MExico to qualify through CONMEBOL than it would be for the US. The importance of having a real home field advantage is tremendous - especially in CONMEBOL qualifying. THe points you maintain at home are the backbone of your sides success.

The fact that Brazil finished 4th in qualifying has something to do with the quality of CONMEBOL, but most to do with the Brazilian lack of form during the lengthy process of qualification. They just didn't play well until the Cup.
I do agree though, that the main problem the US would have is the lack of a real home field advantage. The main advantage we get from being at home is that we aren't at someone else's home. Maybe at the new LA stadium (as long as we are not playing a central american country) or in Columbus we have some advantage, but its nothing like the stadiums and fans in south and central america.

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by loloy_vinotinto
2 out of 3 to the 2nd round... 1 to the third... I'm sorry but that isn't amazing... yo wave this around like a flag, as if you guy's finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd BUT you didn't...

1st Brazil (CONMEBOL)
2nd Germany (UEFA)
3rd Turkey (UEFA)
4th S. Korea (ASIA)

then with youg guys, England (UEFA), Senegal (Africa) and Spain (UEFA)... etc... etc...

the other from your confederation:
Mexico = Paraguay
and Costa Rica, pretty decent first stage run, until teh 5-2 trashing at the hands of Brasil (on neutral ground, not the Maracana)

that isn't so amazing... and should I bring up WC'98?

So let's not talk about the unfair FIFA apointment of participation.

Look for a wednesday's game Venezuela-Jamaica... we'll see the result
I meant to say out of the first round, my mistake.The basis FIFA uses to determine slots is how the Feds fare in the first round. If you get a higher percentage out, that is considered a plus.

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by condor11
you are telling us we lack respect for concacaf
after telling us that the usa would just stroll trough conmebol qualifiers
who said that?

[jamesf24]

Originally posted by Rafael Hernandez
Nope. Peru played Chile yesterday and Chile won 2-0.

I think he meant that Costa Rica beat Paraguay
2-0 yesterday, with their US born coach.

James

[jamesf24]

Originally posted by Various Styles
The USMNT qualifiers in CONMEBOL would go something like this:

Just as it appeared that the U.S would not win any away games the Fluke Factor © kicks in as Chilavert slips on toilet paper and scores an OG giving the US the win.

This is a classic Styles, possibly the best post of the year!!! ROFLMAO.....

Of course, here is the obligatory response..., if there are any US fans in Houston next month, expect to here... 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 oo, nil, 2 niiilllllllll!

Sweet Eddie Lewis cross, Donovan nods it home, Reyna with the classic "mexican" quick restrat, down the flank, ball into Wolff, outside of the foot one touch to McBride, slots it into the far netting...

Sweet..... 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 nil, 2 nil...

Ok, sorry, that was obligatory....

James

[um_chili]

In the past year:

US 1:0 Ecuador
US 2:1 Uruguay
US 0:1 Argentina
US 2:0 Venezuela

Of course, these were int'l friendlies, and in the latter two neither team brought their A-team, but I think it's impossible to look at these results and say that the US, in its current form, couldn't qualify out of Conmebol.

Of course, that doesn't mean the US _would_ qualify, only that they have a creditable chance. When you consider that Colombia won the Copa America but didn't make the WC, it's pretty clear that qualifying out of that confed is hard as hell, tricky and chancey for even the best teams.

One final note: my experience suggests that people would show up to root against the US at home even if they weren't from the country we were playing against. When I was at the Uruguay friendly last year, I talked to a guy at halftime wearing a Uruguay kit and rooting for Uruguay -- it eventually turned out that he was El Salvadoran, but had come to the game to root for Uruguay, and had gone so far as to borrow the Uruguay kit from a friend. Anecdotal, I know, but there were a hell of a lot more Uruguayans in the crowd than one would expect to find in the DC area.

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by um_chili
In the past year:

US 1:0 Ecuador
US 2:1 Uruguay
US 0:1 Argentina
US 2:0 Venezuela

Of course, these were int'l friendlies, and in the latter two neither team brought their A-team, but I think it's impossible to look at these results and say that the US, in its current form, couldn't qualify out of Conmebol.

Of course, that doesn't mean the US _would_ qualify, only that they have a creditable chance. When you consider that Colombia won the Copa America but didn't make the WC, it's pretty clear that qualifying out of that confed is hard as hell, tricky and chancey for even the best teams.

One final note: my experience suggests that people would show up to root against the US at home even if they weren't from the country we were playing against. When I was at the Uruguay friendly last year, I talked to a guy at halftime wearing a Uruguay kit and rooting for Uruguay -- it eventually turned out that he was El Salvadoran, but had come to the game to root for Uruguay, and had gone so far as to borrow the Uruguay kit from a friend. Anecdotal, I know, but there were a hell of a lot more Uruguayans in the crowd than one would expect to find in the DC area.
The USA would play the home games in Columbus, Portland, Anchorage, wherever we needed to. The USA is full of Mexicans but there weren't too many on a weekday night in February in Columbus Ohio, were there?
PS to our COMEBOL friends: we are not totally stupid.

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by jamesf24
I think he meant that Costa Rica beat Paraguay
2-0 yesterday, with their US born coach.

James
thanks- it was late and I was listening to FSW half-asleep!