Could the USA qualify to the WC out of Comnebol?

[speedcake]

that's one way of putting I guess.

I just know that the U.S. is a strong enough side to qualify out of S. America. Not accepting that fact is denying the strides the U.S. has made and the fact that we are pushing elite status. Period.

[JuanArango82]

This reminds me of Colombia rank really high, higher than Holland around were the U.S. is right now. Well a slip up versus Peru at home and surprise tie in Venezuela with a total of 1 point out of the possible 6 and they kissed their WC dreams good-bye and gave Uruguay and Brazil some breathing room.

U.S. wont have that problem cause they are in the Concacaf.

[astabooty]

yes the USA definitely could qualify, i dont think ANYONE could argue that, but could they do it consistently like Argentina and Brazil? Not yet! Uruguay, Paraguay, Peru, Colombia, Ecuador, and Chile would cause a lot of trouble. Currently the USA could easily finish 3rd, but could easily miss out.

[Various Styles]

The USMNT qualifiers in CONMEBOL would go something like this:

The Yanks First match is a road game against Venezuela that the U.S manages to tie 0-0 in Caracas but suffers the expulsion of Mathis after he is red carded for arguing against an obvious foul that the linesman didnt call. The U.S then drops three points at RFK against Brazil lead by Ronaldo who scores a Hat trick and gets Mastroani sent off for a late challenge.

With one point and a minus three goal differential the Yanks must now battle it out in Colombia where they are forced to send a squad made up of MLS players after many Euro Clubs refuse to release their players on time. This proves to be disasterous as Angel leads Colombia to a five nil drubbing of the U.S in Medellin.

Despite the early set backs the U.S manages their first win as they defeat Mexico at C-bus (El Tri is also in this to even things out) The Brue who has now managed four points schemes his next tactical plan to counteraatack the Altitude of La Paz where they manage to hold off the Bolivianos all the way to the 90th minute untill they conceed a last minute pk for a brutal hack on Jose Alfredo Castillo as Bolivia takes the win.

The lack of Media pressure assures that the Bruce keeps his job after another Home loss, this time to Argentina and Yanks stop posting Mathis is Maradona (When Healthy) threads. Just as it appeared that the U.S would not win any away games the Fluke Factor © kicks in as Chilavert slips on toilet paper and scores an OG giving the US the win.

For their next match the U.S is awarded an automatic three points after the Chilean players boycott their FA and their league continues on strike. The U.S chances of qualifying are slowly improving having secured six points in their last two games but an unexpected loss to Peru at the HDNTC drops them back to tenth place in the table.

The U.S match in el Centenario against Uruguay turns into a hackfast and they lose more than the match by accumulating many yellow and red cards and picking up some injuries. A battered U.S team must now prepare fior their last game of the first round against Ecuador.


:) :)

[loloy_vinotinto]

Great imagination... I laughed my butt off...
I don't think the US would do as badly as that, though...
If anything, the long WCQ process in the CONMEBOL shows that most teams tend to have highs and lows so consistensy, concentration, an ample player squad and great youth replacement really pay off. I think the US has the elements and playing style, but I don't know how they would end up after a grueling 3 year qualifying with looooong trips and exhausting games. Plus, as most have said, the away problem.
Somthing that most US posters (I refuse to say AMERICAN, cause WE'RE ALL AMERICAN, from Canada to the tip of Argentina) neglect is that in qualification, every team is hungry, is not what you see in a friendly. Except Venezuela, every other country in the CONMEBOL is soccer (futbol) addicted and dependent. Every thing is about soccer AND SOCCER IS EVERYTHING. That kind of extremist fan support is what you'll be up agaisnt... taunts, insults, proyectiles thrown on the field, racist slurs and maybe even field invations (and not like when the Lakers win the NBA, this is not the friendly type)... adding to this altitude, extreme heat and humidity, media pressure at every game, heck even politics thrown into the mix....
my point is it would be hell!!! plus let's not forget that most South Americans (at least a big number I know) love stinking it to the "gringos". Oh yes, while on political factors, lets not forget a growing left wing phenomenon in S.A., with the poor (about 80% of the ppl in the stadiums) being pissed at the "capitalist oligarcs" (and in their minds, who represents that better the the US??). Security would have to be twice as much as any normal game... probably Boca-River size display of authority.... now, just imagine if you win, and eliminate them... can you say RIOT?

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by loloy_vinotinto
Great imagination... I laughed my butt off...
I don't think the US would do as badly as that, though...
If anything, the long WCQ process in the CONMEBOL shows that most teams tend to have highs and lows so consistensy, concentration, an ample player squad and great youth replacement really pay off. I think the US has the elements and playing style, but I don't know how they would end up after a grueling 3 year qualifying with looooong trips and exhausting games. Plus, as most have said, the away problem.
Somthing that most US posters (I refuse to say AMERICAN, cause WE'RE ALL AMERICAN, from Canada to the tip of Argentina) neglect is that in qualification, every team is hungry, is not what you see in a friendly. Except Venezuela, every other country in the CONMEBOL is soccer (futbol) addicted and dependent. Every thing is about soccer AND SOCCER IS EVERYTHING. That kind of extremist fan support is what you'll be up agaisnt... taunts, insults, proyectiles thrown on the field, racist slurs and maybe even field invations (and not like when the Lakers win the NBA, this is not the friendly type)... adding to this altitude, extreme heat and humidity, media pressure at every game, heck even politics thrown into the mix....
my point is it would be hell!!! plus let's not forget that most South Americans (at least a big number I know) love stinking it to the "gringos". Oh yes, while on political factors, lets not forget a growing left wing phenomenon in S.A., with the poor (about 80% of the ppl in the stadiums) being pissed at the "capitalist oligarcs" (and in their minds, who represents that better the the US??). Security would have to be twice as much as any normal game... probably Boca-River size display of authority.... now, just imagine if you win, and eliminate them... can you say RIOT?
But don't you COMEBOL fans realize that this is EXACTLY what it is like in CEntral America??
By the way, Jamaica just played Peru yesterday. It was 2-0 Jamaica.

[Heist]

Originally posted by Serie Zed
People are underestimating how hard it would be. We'd have to finish 5th out of 11 teams to at least make the playoff v the 4th place Asian team (is that right?).

Assuming that Brazil and Argentina are 1-2 and assuming that Venezuela finish below us (if you don't assume that, forget qualifying)...we'd have to finish ahead of FOUR of these teams:

Chile
Uruguay
Bolivia
Peru
Paraguay
Colombia

We might be able to do it, and we might not. But no way is it a given.
There is no playoff for 2006, only the top 4 teams go.
I think it would be easy to beat Chile, Bolivia, and Peru. Finishing ahead of 2 of the other 3 is not so easy, but possible.

[Bruce S]

Current FIFA rankings:
Brazil-1
ARG-4
Paraguay-18
Uruguay-27
Equador-29
Columbia-37
Ven-69
Chile-77
Peru-85
Bolivia-87
The USA is ranked 10th currently. Even given the inaccuracy of these rankings, the idea that the USA could not qualify has no credibility. I am not saying it would be easy- it never is, even now in CONCACAF. But the idea that it would be beyond us is just so silly that it has no credibility.

[dolphinscoach]

Could the US qualify? Yes, but not easily. Would it? I think so, but not a given.

Most of the points in this argument have received adequate attention, except for:

* distance the US would have to travel, mentioned by one poster - In Concacaf qualifying, the US has had to travel a few hours across poor roads by bus to reach a match, after flying into the country (Honduras likes to do this for home matches).

* hostile fans - The US faces hostility in Mexico, CR, etc., but perhaps not at the same level of some Conmebol countries. I am not sure that the US players will fully appreciate, and thus not be as awed by, the higher level of animosity. In other words, the difference between really, really, really bad and really, really, really, really bad is not as significant as some make it out to be. Plus, since the US is not a soccer-mad nation, fear of failure is likely not as great for US players as the home players, who (as was mentioned) will hear it quickly, loudly and abusively if playing poorly.

* rankings - Useful to a point. Among the many flaws (addressed in this and many other BS threads), rankings don't adequately take into account how teams can improve suddenly with the emergence of one or two outstanding players--or decline as those players decline. Paraguay, Chile, Bolivia, etc., have had their moments where they were a threat to just about anyone in the world, less so now. Who knows if or when a South American side (besides Brazil or Argentina) will flash to the front?

* past WC performance - Overrated for this discussion. Brazilian and Argentine successes are theirs--can any other Conmebol side can claim a WC trophy since World War II? Can't claim greatness by association. More recently, Argentina did not do well in the last WC, but I can't imagine a rational individual arguing that Argentina is not a great team. Likewise, I am not ready to proclaim US greatness based on this past summer's performance. (Although I do think that US performances in recent years, dating since the poor 1998 WC, indicate it is one of the best "mid-majors" around.)

[striker]

Originally posted by Bruce S
........ But the idea that it would be beyond us is just so silly that it has no credibility.

I have noticed too many, if any, posts that said that it would be beyond us. I think our opinions vary on the degree of difficulty involved.

[Bruce S]

I agree that it would not be easy. I never said that nor implied that. But the idea that we have never faced ferocious hostility is, once again, simply ignorant. Is Equador worse than the jungles of Costa Rica- I doubt it and I think CR has a better team.
Please be reminded that the "joke" CONCACAF had the best 1st round record of ANY Fed at the last WC.

[Rafael Hernandez]

Originally posted by Bruce S
But don't you COMEBOL fans realize that this is EXACTLY what it is like in CEntral America??
By the way, Jamaica just played Peru yesterday. It was 2-0 Jamaica.

Nope. Peru played Chile yesterday and Chile won 2-0.

[loloy_vinotinto]

Let's see, in the Emelec-River game a fire work exploded in the Emelec bench (yes, the home team) at half time (they were losing 0-1). Then, before a free kick was taken, a bottle of whisky (that's glass bottle) was thrown at the goalkeeper (it hit him in the soulder) and consecuently Emelec's 2-1 goal was scored (by a Venezuelan :p) wich started a fan invasion (of little proportion)
Never heard anything like that in CR.

Venezuela: 2 years a go the final was being played between Caracas FC and Deportivo Tachira in San Crsitobal (Tachira's home, also one of two citys in venezuela known for it's soccer tradition). After Tachira lost, a fan invasion of the field began where they ran and assaulted many players, then the Caracas team bus (rare down here) was broken into and driven ON THE FIELD, where fans proceeded to loot, and then set it on fire.

Chile: numerous incidents.

Brasil and Argentina: ditto

Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Uruguay: not much different.

And one more anecdote: In the Venezuela-Ecuador of last WCQ, after many dubious decisions by the ref, when the game ended many of us proceeded to take the field and a man stood and offered us 100$ to whomever could beat up the ref and 150$ for any Ecuadorian player (Kaviedes was worth 180$) The police formed a pretty tight shield before we could get to them... plus they ran like hell...
And this is before we started winning... Now let's remember Venezuela is the country with least soccer tradition, and with a lot less heart and soul in the game... we're the nicest crowd you'll probably face.

NOTE: I'm not proud of these incidents, but it is what happens...

PS: I have many many more anecdotes if you want to hear them..

[Bruce S]

Originally posted by loloy_vinotinto
Let's see, in the Emelec-River game a fire work exploded in the Emelec bench (yes, the home team) at half time (they were losing 0-1). Then, before a free kick was taken, a bottle of whisky (that's glass bottle) was thrown at the goalkeeper (it hit him in the soulder) and consecuently Emelec's 2-1 goal was scored (by a Venezuelan :p) wich started a fan invasion (of little proportion)
Never heard anything like that in CR.

Venezuela: 2 years a go the final was being played between Caracas FC and Deportivo Tachira in San Crsitobal (Tachira's home, also one of two citys in venezuela known for it's soccer tradition). After Tachira lost, a fan invasion of the field began where they ran and assaulted many players, then the Caracas team bus (rare down here) was broken into and driven ON THE FIELD, where fans proceeded to loot, and then set it on fire.

Chile: numerous incidents.

Brasil and Argentina: ditto

Colombia, Peru, Bolivia and Uruguay: not much different.

And one more anecdote: In the Venezuela-Ecuador of last WCQ, after many dubious decisions by the ref, when the game ended many of us proceeded to take the field and a man stood and offered us 100$ to whomever could beat up the ref and 150$ for any Ecuadorian player (Kaviedes was worth 180$) The police formed a pretty tight shield before we could get to them... plus they ran like hell...
And this is before we started winning... Now let's remember Venezuela is the country with least soccer tradition, and with a lot less heart and soul in the game... we're the nicest crowd you'll probably face.

NOTE: I'm not proud of these incidents, but it is what happens...

PS: I have many many more anecdotes if you want to hear them..
Oh yeah, we in CONCACAF are even bigger jerks!! Let's see you top 86 dead in Guatamala vs. Cananda in 97 in a WC qualifier. Sadly, this is not a joke.

[JuanArango82]

Originally posted by loloy_vinotinto

Venezuela: 2 years a go the final was being played between Caracas FC and Deportivo Tachira in San Crsitobal (Tachira's home, also one of two citys in venezuela known for it's soccer tradition). After Tachira lost, a fan invasion of the field began where they ran and assaulted many players, then the Caracas team bus (rare down here) was broken into and driven ON THE FIELD, where fans proceeded to loot, and then set it on fire.



Stupid Tachira fans sore that they lost the championship to city boys.

The U.S. will never want to come to Conmebol losing an almost automatic bid to the WC. Concacaf its Mexico, Usa and whoever is hot that being Costa Rica or Jamaica and the rest watching.

[Heist]

Why are we discussing whose riots and hooligans are worse?
Its pretty much a wash on that point between the confderations except that the USA and Canada have less of those problems and it isn't really the issue we should be discussing anyway.

At this point, in early 2003 the only teams that are clearly better than the US are Brazil and Argentina. All other CONMEBOL teams are on par or below the USA and Mexico.
Of course some teams could find a great player or two in the next couple of years and the CONMEBOL teams besides the top two seem to rise and fall a lot.
Venzuela and Ecuador are on their way up and Chile is on its way down (or maybe bottomed out already) and Bolivia was quite good 10 years ago. Now they are still hard to play at home, but aren't a very good side overall.
Uruguay and Parguay are mid-level (teams that may make most WC finals but are never likely to get past the second round). Colombia is a good team that has been underachieving for a while now.
My assesment of the US is that they are good, getting quality wins over lots of second-tier teams around the world, but still lacking the consistency to compete regularly with the top 10 teams when it really matters. We have a lot of young guys who are coming up through the ranks and by 2010 we'll have U-17 teams full of professionals and a full national team that has lots of players with lots of pro experience. MLS will be a good second-tier league that produces some good players who can go to Europe and get better. By 2010 we'll be not a whole lot better than now, but a lot more consitent.

[monop_poly]

I think you are all underestimating just how difficult it will be when those COMNEBOL teams have to come up to RFK and beat the US in front of 50,000 fans all screaming for ...

um, wait a minute ...

[Alex_1]

If the US had to qualify for 2006 out of CONMEBOL - I think it would be a bit of a stretch to say that they would. I'm thinking of different factors. I am comparing the distances to the general atmospheres of playing in CONMEBOL and the environment. It would be hell to travel to Paraguay or Uruguay - and depending on what time of the year, the weather would even zap a lot of the players energy - particularly the ones playing in Europe. This is not a slam - it effects the domestic players that play abroad as well! Then for the US there are all of the political undertones and the whole fact that "Chile is playing against the United States!" thing. Like it or not, football usually does have a way of turning political when the US is involved.

Also, the US would have to adjust to a style of play and tactically, the team's approach would have to be revisited. The overrall quality of the depth of the selection would play a bigger role in the success than if "Claudio Reyna is available?" sort of situations. CONMEBOL qualifying is an extremely grueling system, but IMO it is the most fair in terms of actual teams head to head.

I say that the US would finish anywhere in the top 6 if you combined South America and North American selections. On any given day, the US can hold their own consistently with the likes of Colombia, Uruguay, Paraguay, Mexico, Ecuador, Costa Rica - who I would consider to be players for the final 2 spots. In qualifying, they may be able to play well and obtain good results against Argentina and Brazil as well. The real question is would they have enough gas and ammo to make it through until the end, and would the loss of one or two key players be an insurmountable set-back?

Much like anythign speculative, it all just... depends!

[CrewToon]

Could the US qualify?

It would be much more difficult than CONCACAF but I could see it.

[Heist]

Originally posted by monop_poly
I think you are all underestimating just how difficult it will be when those COMNEBOL teams have to come up to RFK and beat the US in front of 50,000 fans all screaming for ...

um, wait a minute ...
I doubt it would be the same for a South American team coming to the US. I could be wrong, but at least at RFK there aren't any communities the size of the Salvadoran or Honduran community around.
There are way fewer Chileans, Argentines, or Ecuadorans at least around here, and US Soccer could schedule so we don't have the same number of away games at home. Putting a game in Columbus like they did with Mexico would be one way to do it.
I'm not saying there wouldn't be any support for the visiting team, but instead of 40%-60% it would likely be more like 20%-30% most of the time. Still we won't have nearly the home field advantage as other teams in CONCACAF or CONMEBOL.