Could the USA qualify to the WC out of Comnebol?

[superdave]

"Could" we? Yes. We could also fail.

But here's the thing...how far are we going to change reality to fit the hypothetical? Will we have the SA leagues scouting the US hard? In that case, Landon might have gotten signed by River Plate at age 17, and be an even better player now than he is. Maybe Eddie Pope would have Marquez-like ball skills because he would have gone from high school to a pro team, instead of UNC.

Can we take it a little further? Will the US be like every SA nation except Venezuala, a soccer culture? In that case, the US would be the best team in the world; there's no nation in the world that could compete with a nation of 280 million which fanatically follows soccer, and is the richest nation in the world. Hell, the US league would be by far the best league in the world in that case.

But if the US is in CONMEBOL, does that mean it will have been dominated politically and economically by the Replacement USA, and so it's nothing like the richest nation in the world? And on and on.

Also, does the US replace Venezuala in the New South America, or Brazil? That's gonna have a pretty dramatic impact on our chances.

[condor11]

Originally posted by Heist
Making the top 8 is very difficult when the total number of teams is 16. :)

I got a little curious about how "well" Peru has done in the World Cup
http://www.neilandlaure.com/worldcup/peru.html
They got out of the first round in '70 and out of the first group in '78 only to be crushed in the second group phase. Their record was worse than I had even thought...

Copa America wins are something, but they don't make them better than their South American neighbors? It makes their past record comparable to Chile, Colombia, and Paraguay although I'm pretty sure most fans would agree those teams have (at least in the past few decades) been quite a bit better than Peru. I don't know where to get all-time records for teams, but i'd bet at least two of those teams have better (or far-better) records than Peru. All three might have better overall records.

I still say Peru has never been very good, but i'll grant you that they were better in the 70's than they are now.

well if you compare peru to the true power houses brazil argentina germany we are a pathetic team with a pathetic history but if you compare us to second tier nations well then we dont do so badly

take 1970
beat 2 avarage teams bulgaria and iran
lost to a truly great team germany wich had beckembauer and muller a team that was far superior than the 2002 version
then we faced brazil and scored the most goals against them in that world cup sure we lost 4-2 but it was a great match of end to end futbol

at the end of that world cup cubillas was our greatest player at the age of 20 he had 5 world cup goals and we finished 7th

in 1978 we drew with holand beat scotland and iran and finished first in our group the second phase was our greatest crumbling act ending in the argentina -peru match now the reason this match is still remembered is because peru was respected and had played a great first round and no one expected them to get walked over peru finished 8th

say you compare that to the last 2 usa campaings

the usa had a shocker in 98 finishing last losing to
another below par german team and iran

in the 2002 world cupthe usa beat 2 teams portugal and mexico
drew with korea
and lost to poland and germany

i believe u guys finished 7th as well

now if our record is bad what is the usa record?
i dont believe it looks that impresive

head to head paraguay and chile have a lead over us
we have a lead on colombia

i believe mexico has a quite a big lead on the usa

could the usa qualify out of conmebol sure they can but they will be fighting for that last spot with quite a few teams

[Rafael Hernandez]

Originally posted by condor11

i believe u guys finished 7th as well



The US finished 8th.

[FootyMundo]

Originally posted by speedcake


The whole continent is overrated. :O

Yeah, I mean Brazil is just the reigning world champion so by definition they are either rated correctly or rated too high.

And Argentina has NO good players. Didn't their B team just make light of us (admitedly sin our own Euro based players) - I believe they did. In fact, I was at the game.

And Colombia is a complete farce - I mean guys like Cordoba and Geovanni Hernandez just suck. What happened the last time we played them again? Didn't we lose on our home soil?

Hello, what the hell are you talking about. That continent has plenty of teams capable of beating us.

Could we qualify? Yes, but it would be harder. Consider that we've never once won at the Azteca. Now send us to Bogota, La Paz and Quito where the altitude is just as pronounced. And having to play the likes of Brazil and Argentina would greatly cut down our margin of error against the perceived lighter weights. The crowds? Probably nothing we haven't already seen in CONCACAF in terms of intensity. They'd just be bigger. We'd be in a big scrap to get qualified. I think we'd contend. I do not think we'd be more or less a shoe in - which is what qualifying from CONCACAF has more or less become for us.

[Rafael Hernandez]

Originally posted by FootyMundo

Consider that we've never once won at the Azteca. Now send us to Bogota, La Paz and Quito where the altitude is just as pronounced.

La Paz and Quito are higher than Azteca.

[FootyMundo]

Originally posted by superdave


Can we take it a little further? Will the US be like every SA nation except Venezuala, a soccer culture? In that case, the US would be the best team in the world; there's no nation in the world that could compete with a nation of 280 million which fanatically follows soccer, and is the richest nation in the world.



What evidence is there to support this proposition?

Basketball? The world is catching up to us. We barely beat Lithuania at the last Olympics - a country with a GDP the size of Omaha's and a population of around 3 - 4 million people. Then we finished 6th at the last World Championships played on our home soil where we fielded a team that had 8 current or former NBA All-stars. Sure there was no Shaq and no Kobe. But who'd uh thunk we'd need them.

Baseball? I'll create a team of Dominican or Cuban nationals that would give MLB's best Americans a run for their money. The combined GDP of those two countries is less than that of Omaha's. And their population is hardly bursting.

You need just 11 capable guys to create a good team. At some point in time having more people than the other country begins to lose it's real worth. Brazil has 200 million people. Argentina has 35 million people. Brazil is the better team historically. But is there really some enormous gap in quality between the two sides? No.

In short - DNA is DNA and money only takes you so far in a sport that doesn't require all that much to field a competitive team. We Americans like to believe we are superior at all things sporting that matter to us. And we are. But no one seems to ever state the proposition in reverse. Namely, we Americans have been superior at all things sporting the rest of the world doesn't much care about. Basketball is the best litmus test we have. And as the world has started to take on the game our superiority has started to wane. Just tune into the NBA draft and see how many foreign players are taken early this year if you need further evidence. And if you are a fan of the game that isn't all bad.

[Heist]

Originally posted by condor11
i believe u guys finished 7th as well

now if our record is bad what is the usa record?
i dont believe it looks that impresive

head to head paraguay and chile have a lead over us
we have a lead on colombia

i believe mexico has a quite a big lead on the usa

could the usa qualify out of conmebol sure they can but they will be fighting for that last spot with quite a few teams
Again, 7th out of 16 is good, but nothing to write home about.
8th out of 32 is much better.
Also, when thinking about the US the whole period previous to 1990 is what I like to call the "dark ages" of american soccer. We were a country with almost no professional players at that point. Yes we beat England in 1950, but that was a total fluke. Anyway, my point is that at least in the case of the US there is a not a lot of history. In looking toward the future the recent past is the most instructive for the US at least.

As far as baseball goes, a US all-star team could easily lose to world all-star team. The main reason we lose in the olypics is that we send all college players while other countries like Cuba have teams that train together year round.

Similarly in basketball we might lose to a team of world all-stars (on paper at least), but the reason we did so poorly in the World Championships:
We didn't practice together as a team nearly as long as most other countries. It was something like 3 weeks vs. three months.
We didn't take it seriously while other countries did.
We didn't bring our best players while other countries did. We had a team of 2nd and 3rd team all-stars and some who weren't even on that level. Even those guys could have won the Championships if they had practiced together and checked their ego's at the door. It will take US basketball and the players a while to understand they need to do that.
All that being said the US does not have any inherent insurmountable advantage due to its population and money. Both help, but they aren't going to be the deciding factor that gets us the World Cup. Both of those will eventually help, but a youth system like the whole rest of the world has is what our national team (and MLS) would really benefit from.

[Mr. Cam]

Originally posted by Heist

All that being said the US does not have any inherent insurmountable advantage due to its population and money.

A properly managed large Population truly matters.

Originally posted by Heist

but a youth system like the whole rest of the world has is what our national team (and MLS) would really benefit from.

That takes [b]NFL[/b level funding\investment!!!

[The Wanderer]

Originally posted by FootyMundo
What evidence is there to support this proposition?

There is zero evidence to support that the American majority is going to embrace the sport. Be careful crossing bridges. :)

Originally posted by FootyMundo
Baseball? I'll create a team of Dominican or Cuban nationals that would give MLB's best Americans a run for their money. The combined GDP of those two countries is less than that of Omaha's. And their population is hardly bursting.

Kind of like the Sydney Olympics when the U.S. minor leaguers won the gold medal? Just trolling. Point taken.

Originally posted by FootyMundo
You need just 11 capable guys to create a good team. At some point in time having more people than the other country begins to lose it's real worth. Brazil has 200 million people. Argentina has 35 million people. Brazil is the better team historically. But is there really some enormous gap in quality between the two sides? No..

This is a good point and explains Croatian type runs in the World Cup. However, more players means more competition also, and that is something that can be argued in favor of population.

[condor11]

Originally posted by Heist
Again, 7th out of 16 is good, but nothing to write home about.
8th out of 32 is much better.


thats one way of thinking about it

the other way of course it that with 32 teams you have more bad teams than a 16 team world cup

[Riotom9]

Originally posted by Heist
Similarly in basketball we might lose to a team of world all-stars (on paper at least), but the reason we did so poorly in the World Championships:
We didn't practice together as a team nearly as long as most other countries. It was something like 3 weeks vs. three months.
We didn't take it seriously while other countries did.
We didn't bring our best players while other countries did. We had a team of 2nd and 3rd team all-stars and some who weren't even on that level. Even those guys could have won the Championships if they had practiced together and checked their ego's at the door. It will take US basketball and the players a while to understand they need to do that.

The US Basketball powers don't understand a damn thnig about an international game or an international selection. The foreign teams have been playing soccer for 100 hundred years and understand what it takes to form a team. Yes, the USA will need a long time to figure it out. While we look at the Olympics as the peak of the Basketball world, everyone else looks at the 'World Championship'. There is somethnig to be said about the other countries not taking the Olympics as seriously as well.

For the further point of showing American dominance in the sport slipping, just look at the NBA. A record number of foreigners are bringing it to the best league in the world. Their talent level and resources are JUST starting to be increased, much as we say about our soccer. Then look at how they play. Ball movement, fundamentals, commitment to defense and teamwork. We've got a bunch of popstars and shoe salesmen posing for the camera with their gangsta face on. How ridiculous.

And of course lastly is the regulations made by the NCAA that consistently stunts the development of our best players. LeBron James should have been playing against professionals since he was 16. He may have gained some in skill these past two years, but now he has to learn about being a professional. Just as they say about Kobe - that this would be his 1st year if he had gone to college - think of LeBron being a 2-year pro at 18. And he actually is allowed to practice and play competitive games with his teammates more than 24 times a year....

[Heist]

Originally posted by Riotom9
The US Basketball powers don't understand a damn thnig about an international game or an international selection. The foreign teams have been playing soccer for 100 hundred years and understand what it takes to form a team. Yes, the USA will need a long time to figure it out. While we look at the Olympics as the peak of the Basketball world, everyone else looks at the 'World Championship'. There is somethnig to be said about the other countries not taking the Olympics as seriously as well.

For the further point of showing American dominance in the sport slipping, just look at the NBA. A record number of foreigners are bringing it to the best league in the world. Their talent level and resources are JUST starting to be increased, much as we say about our soccer. Then look at how they play. Ball movement, fundamentals, commitment to defense and teamwork. We've got a bunch of popstars and shoe salesmen posing for the camera with their gangsta face on. How ridiculous.

And of course lastly is the regulations made by the NCAA that consistently stunts the development of our best players. LeBron James should have been playing against professionals since he was 16. He may have gained some in skill these past two years, but now he has to learn about being a professional. Just as they say about Kobe - that this would be his 1st year if he had gone to college - think of LeBron being a 2-year pro at 18. And he actually is allowed to practice and play competitive games with his teammates more than 24 times a year....

Currently, if the US brings its best team and every other nations bring their best team, and each team is able to practice for 4-6 weeks the US will crush every other team out there.

Am I misreading this quote: "A record number of foreigners are bringing it to the best league in the world."
Yes, there are a record number of foreigners in the NBA and they are great players, but the NBA has always been and will always be the best domestic league in the world. I don't see any way any nation will ever surpass it. Its not the foreigners who are making this league great... which isn't to say they aren't the great players or that they don't improve the league, just that they aren't the reason the league is maintaining its dominance over other domestic leagues.

It would be good if there were some kind of Youth System for basketball like there is for soccer and basketball in Europe and other places. We place to high a value on education which is generally good, but it also forces kids who would do well to concentrate on sports or a trade or an art to concentrate on academics. We are getting somewhere with places like the Boletteri (sp?)Academy, but we have a long way to go to replecate youth systems in soccer and basketball.

[Crabapple]

Originally posted by Soccernva78
Well let's look at (arguably) our first choice team at the beginning of the qualifying cycle last time.

Forwards: McBride, Moore

Midfield: Stewart, Reyna, Jones, Armas

Defense: Regis, Sanneh, Agoos, Pope

Goalie: Friedel

That left such "second stringers" as Donovan, Mathis, Wolff, Lewis, O'Brien, Berhalter, LLamosa, Cherundolo and Keller among others who contributed when we were hit with injuries. These players had skill and could in my opinion "finish a pass and possess the ball" with any second stringers in South America (excepting of course Brazil and Argentina). Just look at some of the friendly results we've had against those teams with our "B" teams recently. Certainly we match up skill wise rather well with their "B" teams.

And its not just our quarterfinal finish in last year's WC which makes me confident we could qualify. U.S. national teams have been getting good results on all levels since the '98 WC. The U.S. made it to the semis in the U-17 WC in '99, the semis at Confederations Cup in '99 and the semis at the 2000 Olympics. Outside of the big two which South American teams can point to such a record over the past 4 years? Throw in our semifinal appearance at the Copa America against South American competition back in the Dark Ages of '95 and the U.S. IMO looks to have a decent chance of qualifying from COMNEBOL.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

[asdf]

I'm new to this thread but it poses an interesting question. First of all CONMEBOL gets screwed in having only 4(?) qualifying spots, when Asia gets nearly this many and even Oceania is gifted a spot now. You guys need better lobbyists.

That being said, there is a huge drop off after Brazil and Argentina and I think the US would do fine. I also think it would be good publicity for soccer in the US to be playing meaningful games against sizeable countries instead of playing relative minnows in Central America.

[speedcake]

we are still debating this? fun!

[MIGkiller]

Originally posted by Kaiser
top 3 easily

:D

[Roehl Sybing]

Well, since it was decided that the thread should be revived, might as well chime in...

A friend once told me that if the US had to qualify out of Europe, the US would actually BE in Europe, and soccer in the US would be plenty different, thus adding to the chances for qualification.

Exact same thing with CONMEBOL. We would actually be in South America, if not geographically then merely playing in Libertadores and regularly participating in Copa America. With a loaded calendar and many opportunities for American talent to refine themselves, qualification is just, well, one of those things.

So, yeah, top three. If not in every World Cup then in most. Without question.

[NASL Fan]

Another way to look at is would the US qualify if Concacaf and Conmebol merged into a single Western Hemisphere qualification, with 7.5 qualifying spots. I think we would. Fifa's ranking (which, I know, are sh-t, but just for the sake of argument) are like this:

1. Brazil (1)
2. Argentina (6)
3. Mexico (9)
4. USA (10)
5. Costa Rica (18)
6. Paraguay (19)
7. Uruguay (27)
8. Ecuador (33)
9. Colombia (35)
10. Honduras (40)

These ranking would be pretty close to my own, with the USA ahead of Mexico of course. The question is how we would handle playing in Asuncion, Montevideo or La Paz on the road...

[speedcake]

STILL replying to this thread?!?! sheesh


there is seriously nothing left to be said that hasn't been already. this thread almost belongs in the rivalry forum now, what with all the silly posts shootin' back and forth.

[pololo]

Originally posted by speedcake
STILL replying to this thread?!?! sheesh


there is seriously nothing left to be said that hasn't been already. this thread almost belongs in the rivalry forum now, what with all the silly posts shootin' back and forth.

The only silly stuffs coming back and forth are you guys who really think USA would qualify in Conmebol...