HFA in two legged ties.

[tachyon1]

Anyone attempting to rate club sides from different countries when they face each other in knockout tournaments may benefit from the following.

The side playing the second leg at home appears to have a larger than normal home advantage.

Over the last 20 or so years of champions league/european cup games,where the match has been a two legged game as opposed to a group game,then the home side in the first leg has scored 1.64 goals per game and conceded 1.04.

The home side in the second leg has scored more(1.83 g/g) and conceded less(1.0).A difference of 0.23 of a goal.

That equates to the team at home second having roughly a 6% greater chance of winning the match through an elevate hfa than the team would have had had they been at home first .

The tournament draws are random,so unlike some playoff games the stronger side is just as likely to be at home in the first game as in the second.

The effect is also present in two legged knockout ties in english cup football.

If you don't allow for this,you're penalising the true abiliy of teams that have faced more 1st leg ties at home.(Bayern Munich have hosted 9 more home first legs than away in the period I looked at).

Even if the home/away ties are evenly split,they may not be equally split over time(a lot a recent home 1st leg ties appearing to balance out a lot of home second leg ties played in the distant past for example).

A small but noticeable effect.

T.

[happyforever]

tachyon1,

Out of curiosity in absolute nos. how many times did the 1st home team go through and how many times the 2nd home team (including extra time and penalties)?

[kenntomasch]

Previous research here (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=79762&highlight=Two+legs+to+stand+on).

Updating the USL numbers through the first round of this year's playoffs:

Since the advent of the two-legged playoff system in the A-League/USL in 2000, there have been 44 two-legged ties. In 19 of those ties, the team that hosted the first leg advanced (43%). Second-leg hosts have advanced 25 times (57%).

First-leg hosts are 21-12-11 overall (.602). Second-leg hosts are 18-15-11 overall (.534).

Both of the two ties to this point in 2006 were won by the higher-seeded team, bringing the all-time total to 26 of 44 (.591).

New numbers:
2000
(6 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 3 times
Game 2 host went through 3 times
Higher seed won 4 of the 6 ties

2001
(10 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 4 times
Game 2 host went through 6 times
Higher seed won 7 of the 10 ties

2002
(10 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 3 times
Game 2 host went through 7 times
Higher seed won 5 of the 10 ties

2003
(6 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 2 times
Game 2 host went through 4 times
Higher seed won 4 of the 6 ties

2004
(6 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 2 times
Game 2 host went through 4 times
Higher seed won 3 of the 6 ties

2005
(4 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 3 times
Game 2 host went through 1 time
Higher seed won 1 of the 4 ties


2006 (so far)
(2 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 2 times
Game 2 host went through 0 times
Higher seed won 2 of the 2 ties


Total
(44 two-legged ties)
Game 1 host went through 19 times
Game 2 host went through 25 times
Higher seed won 26 of the 44 ties

[tachyon1]

HFE.

taking the Champions league/European cup as an example.

I've looked at around 700 two legged ties.

78 games ended level after 180 minutes so I'll have to go through those game by game because the way the away goals rule was applied varied over the 20 year period.

Of the 631 games where there was a clear winner after 180 minutes,the side at home in the second leg went thru 345 times(54.7%)

Thanks for the update and the link,Kenn....I forgotten I'd posted in it.

T.

[happyforever]

Knowing that teams that look at a deficit do perform better my initial thoughts say that the second home team is more often looking at a deficit and will use this as an extra motivation. My next step is to find out, if the bookies know this already. I am afraid they do.

[voros]

Anyone attempting to rate club sides from different countries when they face each other in knockout tournaments may benefit from the following.

The side playing the second leg at home appears to have a larger than normal home advantage.

Over the last 20 or so years of champions league/european cup games,where the match has been a two legged game as opposed to a group game,then the home side in the first leg has scored 1.64 goals per game and conceded 1.04.

The home side in the second leg has scored more(1.83 g/g) and conceded less(1.0).A difference of 0.23 of a goal.

That equates to the team at home second having roughly a 6% greater chance of winning the match through an elevate hfa than the team would have had had they been at home first .

The tournament draws are random,so unlike some playoff games the stronger side is just as likely to be at home in the first game as in the second.
This is incorrect, isn't it?

The first knockout round after the group stage is seeded. The 2nd place teams from the group stage play the first place teams with the 1st place teams all playing at home the 2nd leg. At least that's how it has been recently.

[scaryice]

From another forum (http://www.kassiesa.com/uefaforum/view.php?topic=20060803154330.xml):

Here is great statistics about result based on first leg from one of the topics:

4-0 161- 0 (161) 100% / 0%
3-0 341- 28 (369) 92% / 8%
4-1 107- 17 (124) 86% / 14%
2-0 423-115 (538) 79% / 21%
3-1 194- 66 (260) 75% / 25%
1-0 407-319 (726) 56% / 44%
---------------------------------
2-1 197-232 (429) 46% / 54%
3-2 61- 82 (143) 43% / 57%
0-0 151-346 (497) 30% / 70%
1-1 116-408 (524) 22% / 78%
2-2 35-164 (199) 18% / 82%
0-1 36-350 (386) 9% / 91%
1-2 8-223 (231) 3% / 97%
1-3 4-135 (139) 3% / 97%
0-2 3-215 (218) 1% / 99%
0-3 0-106 (106) 0% / 100%


It's result of the first leg and then outcome. For example - first string. Home team won 4-0 - 161 times in eurocups and then 161 times passed and away passed 0 times. Then percentage.

[tachyon1]

Hi Voros,
it's a good point.
But the effect is still there if you take those games out.It's also there in the English football legue cup(or whatever they care to call it nowadays) and the uefa cup(inter cities fairs cup,again whatever you care to call it).

The champions league seeded from around 1994,but often on the basis of one or two points difference over only 6 individual games.So the reliability of the higher seed being substancially better is slightly dubious.

T