WC Roster age totals 1998-2006

[voros]

Here are the tallies for World Cup rosters by age. The age listed is the age the player would be on December 31st of the year of the World Cup. IE, the listing is done by birth year so that a player born in 1976 would be 22 in 1998, 26 in 2002 and 30 in 2006. (OF=all non keepers)

Age GK DF MF FW OF
40 2 0 0 0 0
39 2 1 0 0 0
38 1 1 0 1 2
37 11 1 4 2 7
36 10 3 3 2 8
35 14 12 8 9 29
34 20 13 19 13 45
33 19 37 24 15 76
32 21 39 31 22 92
31 20 54 30 19 103
30 18 49 68 35 152
29 24 73 65 42 180
28 22 68 69 47 184
27 23 71 71 37 179
26 12 59 78 56 193
25 15 69 67 54 190
24 20 43 50 35 128
23 13 46 48 23 117
22 3 30 41 24 95
21 9 10 19 35 64
20 4 8 8 11 27
19 0 3 5 4 12
18 2 1 2 1 4
17 0 0 0 3 3

And here are the age averages by position listed on the roster:

POS Mean Median Mode
GK 29.34 29 29
DF 27.63 28 29
MF 27.14 27 26
FW 26.77 26 26
OF 27.22 27 26

[Shackleton]

My rough calculation for average age for all players is 27.50. Since you're adding approximately one-half year per player (assuming age on 12/31 when WC is generally in June-July), this works out to an average overall age of 27 for WC players.

True average age (your average less approximately one-half year) for each of the outfield positions would be:

GK: 28.8
D: 27.1
M: 26.6
F: 26.3

Is it fair to infer from the data that these are the ages in which players at these positions peak?

[Shackleton]

It is interesting to compare the age of those USMNT players who got onto the field at the 2006 WC to Voros's numbers:

Age GK DF MF FW
37+ 0 0 0 0
36 1 0 0 0
35 0 0 0 0
34 0 0 0 0
33 0 0 0 1
32 0 2 1 0
31 0 0 0 0
30 0 0 0 0
29 0 1 2 1
28 0 0 1 0
27 0 2 0 0
26 0 0 0 0
25 0 0 0 0
24 0 1 2 0
23 0 2 0 0
22 0 0 0 1
21- 0 0 0 0

When these are compared with the overall numbers it becomes apparent that the US team was severely underrepresented by players who should be in the prime of their career--those in the 25-31 age range. The USMNT had only 7 of 18 players in this age bracket (38.9%). But, according to Voros's numbers, this age group makes up 60.5% of total WC players.

The dearth of players for the US is even more apparent when you consider that two (Conrad and Olsen) played only because of injury and suspension to starters, and two more (O'Brien and Wolff) were only substitues in one game.

If only starters are looked at, then this age group (25-31) accounts for only 4 of 14 players (28.6%).

[voros]

If only starters are looked at, then this age group (25-31) accounts for only 4 of 14 players (28.6%).
And when doing the player pools the last couple of years, it was obvious that there was some sort of dead period for American players from 1975 to 1978.

[Shackleton]

And when doing the player pools the last couple of years, it was obvious that there was some sort of dead period for American players from 1975 to 1978.

It seems like the dead period (at least as far as top-level national team players go) extends from 1975 to 1981. Players born in 1979, 1980, and 1981 should be in their prime right now, but there just aren't as many of them in the national team as the numbers suggest there should be.

Is this just a statistical happenstance? Or is there some causative explanation?

Players born in 1975 (the beginning of the dead period) would have turned 19 in MLS's first season, 1994. So, at least on the surface, the beginning of MLS seems to coincide with the beginning of professional careers for players of the dead period. Is there possibly some reason that MLS set back the development of top level talent? Perhaps players went into MLS instead of Europe as in prior years and failed to develop as well as the previous generation? Not sure this theory really fits the facts.

As to the end of the dead period, there seems like a fairly reasonable answer. Bradenton opened in 1999. This corresponds exactly with the end of the dead period, as players born in 1982 were the first to go through the system. Of the players born in 1982 or later on the USMNT, Beasley, Donovan, Convey, Onyewu, and Johnson all went to Bradenton, while only Dempsey did not. Thus, although Bradenton has been much maligned, it seems to me that it has been quite beneficial in developing USMNT players.

[voros]

It seems like the dead period (at least as far as top-level national team players go) extends from 1975 to 1981. Players born in 1979, 1980, and 1981 should be in their prime right now, but there just aren't as many of them in the national team as the numbers suggest there should be.
True, but they are actually there. Bocanegra, Cherundolo, Albright, Gibbs, Twellman, Noonan, Califf, Casey, Howard. I could always find _somebody born in 1979 or later that I could take (the pools were done by strict age quotas).

The 1975 to 1978 groups I wasl alwsy forced to take guys like Sasha Victorine, Ritchie Kotschau and Mark Lisi because they were the best remaining of a bunch of poor choices. For 1979 to 1981, maybe it was adding Nick Garcia, Davy Arnaud or Nate Jaqua. Better players and more reasonably world cup players.

[Craig P]

Players born in 1975 (the beginning of the dead period) would have turned 21 in MLS's first season, 1996.

FYP. The World Cup was in 1994, MLS was supposed to start right around then but took a little longer to get off the ground.