voros
21 Jul 2006, 06:13 PM
Here's something I was looking at the other day and figured I'd post the numbers.
I went through World Cup qualifying and collected all of the matches in which there was a home and away matchup (for example, I threw out the Mexico v Dominica games because Dominica didn't play a home match). So for every match left, there was another match in the same qualifying round between the two teams with the location switched. The idea being that if there was no home field advantage at all, the win% for the home teams in all the matches would be close to .500.
Anyway, here's the numbers for the home teams (The 'homeGF' column represents a goals factor):
Confed Wins Draw Loss GF GA Win% homeGF
AFC 63 19 40 230 126 .595 1.35
AFC/CONCACAF 0 1 1 1 2 .250 0.70
CAF 108 45 35 330 168 .694 1.40
CONCACAF 53 20 31 226 121 .606 1.37
CONMEBOL 50 25 15 155 80 .694 1.39
CONMEBOL/OFC 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 ____
UEFA 121 70 89 445 326 .557 1.17
TOTALS 397 180 211 1396 823 .618 1.30
OFC played single location qualifiers so they're not in.
I'm going to do the 2002 qualifiers and see if the same trends hold by confed, and if so I think it's interesting how the advantages of home field may shift by confed. In particular the numbers for Europe and Africa are interesting.
Theoretically, anyway, a confed with lots of mismatches should post a lower home team win% than a more balanced confed, since the closer two teams are in quality, the more likely home field is to tip the scales in one teams advantage.
EDIT: CAF numbers adjusted slightly, two matches were included that shouldn't have been.
I went through World Cup qualifying and collected all of the matches in which there was a home and away matchup (for example, I threw out the Mexico v Dominica games because Dominica didn't play a home match). So for every match left, there was another match in the same qualifying round between the two teams with the location switched. The idea being that if there was no home field advantage at all, the win% for the home teams in all the matches would be close to .500.
Anyway, here's the numbers for the home teams (The 'homeGF' column represents a goals factor):
Confed Wins Draw Loss GF GA Win% homeGF
AFC 63 19 40 230 126 .595 1.35
AFC/CONCACAF 0 1 1 1 2 .250 0.70
CAF 108 45 35 330 168 .694 1.40
CONCACAF 53 20 31 226 121 .606 1.37
CONMEBOL 50 25 15 155 80 .694 1.39
CONMEBOL/OFC 2 0 0 2 0 1.000 ____
UEFA 121 70 89 445 326 .557 1.17
TOTALS 397 180 211 1396 823 .618 1.30
OFC played single location qualifiers so they're not in.
I'm going to do the 2002 qualifiers and see if the same trends hold by confed, and if so I think it's interesting how the advantages of home field may shift by confed. In particular the numbers for Europe and Africa are interesting.
Theoretically, anyway, a confed with lots of mismatches should post a lower home team win% than a more balanced confed, since the closer two teams are in quality, the more likely home field is to tip the scales in one teams advantage.
EDIT: CAF numbers adjusted slightly, two matches were included that shouldn't have been.