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scaryice
12 Jul 2006, 04:16 AM
The new, revised FIFA rankings (http://fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,118178,00.html?articleid=118178) are out, so we can get started on this way too early as usual.

Top 7 teams seeded

(South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)


Total WC FIFA
1 Brazil 61.3 29.3 32
2 Italy 58.3 27.3 31
3 England 54.3 26.3 28
4 Germany 54.3 30.3 24
5 France 52.3 23.3 29
6 Spain 51.3 25.3 26
7 Argentina 51.0 21.0 30

8 Portugal 47.3 22.3 25
9 Netherlands 41.7 14.7 27
10 Switzerland 35.3 15.3 20
11 Ukraine 34.7 16.7 18
12 Mexico 34.3 19.3 15
13 USA 30.7 13.7 17
14 Sweden 30.3 19.3 11
15 Czech 29.0 6.0 23
16 Paraguay 25.7 11.7 14
17 Nigeria 24.7 2.7 22
18 Cameroon 24.0 3.0 21
19 Denmark 23.7 7.7 16
20 Uruguay 21.7 2.7 19
21 Cote d'Ivoire 19.0 6.0 13
22 Croatia 19.0 9.0 10
23 Australia 18.3 11.3 7
24 Japan 16.3 13.3 3
25 Costa Rica 13.3 8.3 5
26 Colombia 12.0 0.0 12
27 Iran 9.3 5.3 4
28 Guinea 9.0 0.0 9
29 Romania 8.0 0.0 8
30 Honduras 6.0 0.0 6
31 South Africa 4.0 3.0 1
32 Uzbekistan 2.0 0.0 2



Much of the following was originally written by eldiablito (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/member.php?u=8991), so credit to him. Also thanks to him for doing this last time for many months. Apparently he hasn't been online in a month, so I've decided to do it tonight. Plus, I'm up really late when the rankings come out (3 AM central time).

FAQ

Why is this list different than FIFA's coke rankings?

Because Fifa's coke rankings are only part of the complex seeding formula.

What is the seeding formula used for?

The seeding formula is used to determine which 8 countries receive seeds. Those 8 teams are heads of each of the 8 groups in the world cup. By being seeded, they get the luxury of not having to play another seeded team until the knockout stage.

What is the seeding formula exactly?

The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA coca-cola rankings.

Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3
Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2006 rank+12/2007 rank+11/2008 rank)/3
Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

For the purposes of this showing you the current standings in this thread, the current FIFA rank will count as all three years.

How is the world cup performance determined?

0 points are awarded if the country failed to qualify that year.
8 points are awarded for the bottom 8 teams in the group stage.
9 points are awarded for the top 8 teams in the group stage who didn't advance.

All the countries that advanced to the knockout stage are placed from 1st place to 16th place. 1st place (champs) receives 32 points. 2nd place receives 31 points. 3rd place receives 30 points. etc. All the way to 16th place which receives 17 points.

How are the points for FIFA ranking awarded?

Similarly to above. First, all 32 teams that qualify are ranked by their FIFA ranking. The best is given 32 points. The worst 1 point.

How do you pick which 32 countries to run the seeding formula?

I pick the countries based on their FIFA ranking by federation. For example, the best 14 UEFA teams by FIFA ranking since 14 UEFA teams will qualify. This is done primarily for two reasons. It keeps the criteria objective and it runs the formula with the worst-case scenario in mind.

14-UEFA
4.5-CONMEBOL
3.5-CONCACAF
4.5-AFC
5.0-CAF
0.5-OFC

Are you sure that FIFA will use this seeding formula?

No, it might change slightly. For 2006 they only used the previous 2 World Cups instead of 3 like before. But they've been using the same basic formula since 1994.
scaryice
12 Jul 2006, 04:37 AM
It looks like other than the top 7 and Portugal, the only other teams with a real chance are Sweden and Mexico. They would have to get very high in the FIFA rankings though.

Even if the USA were #1 in the FIFA rankings, they still wouldn't be seeded currently. Of course, if a few of the teams ahead of us don't qualify then maybe there's an outside shot.
Edgar
12 Jul 2006, 05:26 AM
Using the WC 2006 system to determine the pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Special pot: Romania

Mock draw:

Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Honduras, Uruguay
Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Japan, Cameroon
Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Nigeria
Group D: France, Denmark, Australia, Paraguay
Group E: England, Portugal, Mexico, Guinea
Group F: Italy, Sweden, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire
Group H: Brazil, Switzerland, USA, Romania
scaryice
12 Jul 2006, 05:36 AM
Good job, but South Africa and Nigeria can't be drawn together.
Edgar
12 Jul 2006, 05:38 AM
Fixed.
Maruti
12 Jul 2006, 05:39 AM
:p

I would love such a World Cup. Just look at the teams. Almost no weaklings.

South Africa will most likely have an easy draw, as they will miss any African opposition form the 4 pot meaning they will get at worst teams like Mexico and Paraguay. Plus they have a chance at have a weak European team.

There will be three/four candidates for groups of death - those hosting Cameroon, Nigeria, Ivory Coast and most likely Ghana (not Guinea).

Even at your mock draw you have groups with Germany, Czech Rep and Nigeria; with England, Portugal, Mexico and Ghana/Guinea; with Argnetina, Holland and Ivory Coast. Plus you have a high probality of a group of death with such a team as Romania.
larrygiterdone
12 Jul 2006, 01:29 PM
Using the WC 2006 system to determine the pots:

Pot 1: Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, South Africa, Spain
Pot 2: Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine
Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, USA, Uzbekistan
Pot 4: Cameroon, Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, Nigeria, Paraguay, Uruguay
Special pot: Romania

Mock draw:

Group A: South Africa, Croatia, Honduras, Uruguay
Group B: Spain, Ukraine, Japan, Cameroon
Group C: Germany, Czech Republic, Costa Rica, Nigeria
Group D: France, Denmark, Australia, Paraguay
Group E: England, Portugal, Mexico, Guinea
Group F: Italy, Sweden, Uzbekistan, Colombia
Group G: Argentina, Netherlands, Iran, Cote d'Ivoire
Group H: Brazil, Switzerland, USA, Romania


Group G looks pretty familiar
tomwilhelm
12 Jul 2006, 01:49 PM
Group G looks pretty familiar
And H looks like a world of pain. Like Group F this year, only with 3 stronger teams behind Brazil.
VioletCrown
12 Jul 2006, 04:30 PM
From what I remember (yeah, I could go look it up), this type post from '02 had the seeds accurately. That is, 3 years of confederation cups and qualifying made no difference.

So, with South Africa hosting, Mexico is shut out. Even more so with the new FIFA ranking formula.

I suppose, with the shorter window of games being measured and the steep dropoff in the value of games between this year and the previous years, the FIFA rankings will be more volatile. If so, then we should see Asia (yeah, they've drifted away from the 'every 4 years' tournament), Africa, CONCACAF and CONMEBOL countries ranked a little higher at the end of '07 than UEFA.

Probably won't matter. Looks like this year the US's only shot for many years, maybe Mexico's as well. Needed to get better luck in the draw.

Sure would like to see someone else sneak in there. Mabye Switzerland with a European Cup homefield advantage win. Wouldn't that be weird.
VioletCrown
12 Jul 2006, 04:35 PM
The new, revised FIFA rankings (http://fifa.com/en/mens/statistics/index/0,2548,118178,00.html?articleid=118178) are out, so we can get started on this way too early as usual.

Top 7 teams seeded

(South Africa automatically seeded as hosts)

[snip]

What is the seeding formula exactly?

The complex formula takes into account the performance at the last 2 world cups and the FIFA coca-cola rankings.

Part A: World Cup performance = (2002*1+2006*2)/3
Part B: FIFA Ranking = (12/2006 rank+12/2007 rank+11/2008 rank)/3
Part A + Part B = world cup seeding formula

I'm confused on Part B. I though they used December of all four years -- 06 - 09. Draw is done in December of '09 for the '10 WC. Aren't you missing a 4th ranking?
scaryice
12 Jul 2006, 04:39 PM
I'm confused on Part B. I though they used December of all four years -- 06 - 09. Draw is done in December of '09 for the '10 WC. Aren't you missing a 4th ranking?

Oops, all the years should be moved up by one on my first post:

12/2007
12/2008
11/2009
Pingudo
12 Jul 2006, 04:46 PM
From what I remember (yeah, I could go look it up), this type post from '02 had the seeds accurately. That is, 3 years of confederation cups and qualifying made no difference.


I tend to agree, as long as Argentina, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain qualify for the next WC, they'll almost certainly have a seed.
Figo Rules
12 Jul 2006, 05:56 PM
[QUOTE=Edgar]Group E: England, Portugal, Mexico, Guinea


England and Portugal in the same group? There are not enough tabloid pages in all of England.:D
VioletCrown
12 Jul 2006, 06:32 PM
Oops, all the years should be moved up by one on my first post:

12/2007
12/2008
11/2009

Ah. Cool. Went back to confirm (just for my own sanity). That looks right now.

In which case, because everyone but UEFA have confederation championships in 07 and 09, there is a slight chance that someone other than the ones listed could sneak in and capture a seed.

But not likely.

Look for two groups of death 4 years from now -- one with the US and one with Mexico.
Forza AZ
13 Jul 2006, 06:32 AM
[QUOTE=Edgar]Group E: England, Portugal, Mexico, Guinea


England and Portugal in the same group? There are not enough tabloid pages in all of England.:D
Well, at least there won't be a penalty-shoot out again. ;)
sicnarf
13 Jul 2006, 07:34 AM
[QUOTE=Figo Rules]
Well, at least there won't be a penalty-shoot out again. ;)

Ooh! That's an excellent point. Yes I like this mock draw a LOT :)

Rep to scaryice for kicking this off again - eldiablito's thread for the 2006 WC was really interesting.

Cheers.
Shackleton
19 Jul 2006, 06:34 PM
Here's an article on this subject by Paul Marcutti at Planet World Cup. http://www.planetworldcup.com/GUESTS/paul20060719.html and his table showing the current seeding points:

PWC RP TOT
* Brazil 29.33 32.00 61.33
* Italy 27.33 31.00 58.33
* England 26.33 28.00 54.33
* Germany 30.33 24.00 54.33
* France 23.33 29.00 52.33
* Spain 25.33 26.00 51.33
* Argentina 21.00 30.00 51.00
Portugal 22.33 25.00 47.33
Netherlands 14.67 27.00 41.67
Ukraine 16.67 22.00 38.67
Mexico 19.33 19.00 38.33
Switzerland 15.33 23.00 38.33
Sweden 19.33 16.00 35.33
USA 13.67 21.00 34.67
Paraguay 11.67 18.00 29.67
Ecuador 17.00 12.00 29.00
Denmark 7.67 20.00 27.67
Ghana 13.33 14.00 27.33
Croatia 9.00 15.00 24.00
Cote d'Ivoire 6.00 17.00 23.00
Turkey 10.00 13.00 23.00
Australia 11.33 9.00 20.33
Poland 8.67 11.00 19.67
South Korea 15.67 4.00 19.67
Tunisia 8.67 10.00 18.67
Japan 13.33 5.00 18.33
Senegal 8.67 8.00 16.67
Costa Rica 8.33 7.00 15.33
Iran 5.33 6.00 11.33
Saudi Arabia 8.00 1.00 9.00
Trinidad & Tob. 5.33 3.00 8.33
* South Africa 3.00 2.00 5.00

The teams that are likely to be seeded for 2010 have an asterisk (*) in front of their names

Note that there are some slight discrepancies between scaryice's and Marcutti's tables. I guess it is because they look at a slightly different 32 teams to make the 2010 WC.

For those new to the seeding formula threads, I believe Marcutti's similar article regarding the 2006 seeds was the genesis for all subsequent seeding formula updates.
Edgar
20 Jul 2006, 06:24 AM
It's Marcuccitti, not Marcutti. He's a member on this forum: Paul Marcuccitti (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/member.php?u=73852)
Shackleton
20 Jul 2006, 09:33 AM
Apologies to Paul; just trying to give credit, where credit is due. :)
celito
20 Jul 2006, 10:55 PM
Holly crap. You guys don't let up. Find something else to do !!! The damn thing is 4 years away !!! :rolleyes: