Magic Numbers [R for all teams, all games]

[Sachin]

With United's win over the Crew, the East looks like this:

DC ... 41 pts. 14 games left 83 pts. max
NE ... 24 pts. 15 games left 69 pts. max
CHI .. 20 pts. 16 games left 68 pts. max
KC ... 20 pts. 15 games left 65 pts. max
======
CLB .. 18 pts. 15 games left 63 pts. max
RBNY 14 pts. 16 games left 62 pts. max


With Columbs left a 63 point maximum, we need to gain 23 points to playoff safety. To clinch the #1 seed inthe east, we need to gain 29 points to ensure we finished ahead of New England.

By the way, looking at maximum points possible, we can really see just how tight the race is for 2-4 at the moment. The spot for the final playoff spot will probably go down to the last day.

The race for the Supporters Shield shapes up like this:

DC ... 41 pts. 14 games left 83 pts. max
FCD . 30 pts. 15 games left 75 pts. max
HOU . 27 pts. 16 games left 72 pts max

We need gain 34 points to clinch the Supporters Shield. We win the tiebreaker over Dallas based on head-to-head results.

By gaining points, I mean from any combination of DC gaining points and our opponents losing points. A DC victory over NE would result in 6 points getting knocked off the count.

Edit to add that the best results for us are now: A DC win, coupled with either Eastern teams tieing each other and Dallas, or Eastern teams losing to the other Western teams.

Sachin

[writered21]

83 points, wow. I mean, I know they won't get there, but 83 points. That's a lot.

More numbers, related to the prop bet I put in this week's column:

United: 41 points, 42 possible remaining. Max: 83.
Cubs: 33 wins, 75 games left.

If United take 29 points from the last 14 matches, the Cubs would need to go 38-37 to hit 71 wins and surpass United, who would be on 70 points.

[John_Harkes_6]

The race for the Supporters Shield shapes up like this:

DC ... 41 pts. 14 games left 83 pts. max
FCD . 30 pts. 15 games left 75 pts. max
HOU . 27 pts. 16 games left 72 pts max

Wow - I hope you are more accurate in your Accounting homework than you are with your magic number calculations :D

16 * 3 = 48 + 27 = 75

[Sachin]

I make sure not to do my accounting homework after midnight. :)

Plus Excel handles the math for me.

Sachin

[Sanguine]

Not this year! DC are sitting on 41 points with 14 games left to play. Here are their current magic numbers to qualify for the playoffs, clinch first place in the division, and clinch the Supporter's Shield.

To make the playoffs we must finish no lower than 4th in the division. The 5th place team is currently Columbus, sitting on 18 points with 15 games left to play. They can achieve a maximum of 18 + (15 *3) or 63 points. We must therefore earn, and/or Columbus must drop a total of 22 points over the remainder of the season for us to clinch the playoffs. Outlook - It would take a miracle combined with a disaster for us to miss the playoffs. We're likely to get the 22 points on our own even if Columbus wins all their remaining matches.

Our nearest competitor to win the division is New England (24 points, 15 remaining. potential of 69 points) We must gain, or NE must drop 28 points in order to secure the division title. The magic number to finish ahead Chicago is 27, and KC is 24. Obviously, we must obtain all 3 of these to win the division. Outlook - very good.

In the Supporter's Shield race, three competitors out west have the same point potential. Dallas, (30 points, 15 remaining. 75 potential points) Houston (27 points, 16 remaining, 75 potential points) and Colorado (24 points, 17 remaining, 75 total points) all give us a macic number of 34 to win the Supporter's Shield. Obviously again, we must beat all these competitors plus Chivas (23 points, 15 remaining, 68 potential points) to win the Supporter's Shield. Outlook - good, but far from decided. A bad month could make it a tight race.


To recap:

Playoff Magic Number = 22 (Columbus)
Division Magic Number = 28 (NE)
Supporter's Shield Magic Number = 34 (Dallas, Houston, Colorado)

Point Potential: (a.k.a. another excuse to list LA in last place in the league)

East:
DC: 41 + (14*3) = 83
NE: 24 + (15*3) = 69
CHI: 20 + (16*3) = 68
KC: 20 + (15*3) = 65
CLB: 18 + (15*3) = 63
RB: 14 + (16*3) = 62

West:
DAL: 30 + (15*3) = 75
HOU: 27 + (16*3) = 75
COL: 24 + (17*3) = 75
CHV: 23 + (15*3) = 68
RSL: 13 + (16*3) = 61
LA: 18 + (14*3) = 60

[SABuffalo786]

This is getting ridiculous. :)

[Michael CM1]

I wish he would've used derivatives and the pluperfect tense so I wouldn't be confused.

[URwormfood]

http://childstoryhour.com/images/product/readalong/multiplication.jpg


9 is not the magic number?

:confused:

~worm~

[nobius]

Excellent thread! I was wondering how to figure out magic numbers in soccer. Can you tell me if I calculated the numbers right for the other teams in the chart I created below? I know some of the teams are already out of the running for 1st but I want to make sure my Excel mojo is working right this late at night. :D

Team GP Points Max 4th 1st Sup Shld
DCU 18 41 83 22 28 34
NE 17 24 69 39 59 59
Chicago 16 20 68 43 63 63
KC 17 20 65 43 63 63
C'bus 17 18 63
NYRB 16 14 62

FCD 17 30 75 31 45 53
Houston 16 27 75 34 48 56
Colo 15 24 75 37 51 59
Chivas 17 23 68 38 52 60
RSL 16 13 61
LA 18 18 60

One question: shouldn't the magic number be the point diff+1 so there's no tie-breaking worries?

[Sanguine]

One question: shouldn't the magic number be the point diff+1 so there's no tie-breaking worries?

yeah, I realized that right after I posted, but was too lazy to go back and edit. :o

[Sanguine]

I didn't even see this thread when I started mine - my bad. I guess just delete mine, since merging is pointless. They have the same data.

[URwormfood]

Wow....I like numbers...but hate when my post is put to -0??

~worm~

-1+(-)1=?


I know: 4 stars + one star = 5 *****

:D

[ursula]

I didn't even see this thread when I started mine - my bad. I guess just delete mine, since merging is pointless. They have the same data.

Nah- it's good the mods just merged the threads so we can check each other's calculations. Reps to all of you when I can.

[Sundevil9]

Excellent thread! I was wondering how to figure out magic numbers in soccer. Can you tell me if I calculated the numbers right for the other teams in the chart I created below? I know some of the teams are already out of the running for 1st but I want to make sure my Excel mojo is working right this late at night. :D

Team GP Points Max 4th 1st Sup Shld
DCU 18 41 83 22 28 34
NE 17 24 69 39 59 59
Chicago 16 20 68 43 63 63
KC 17 20 65 43 63 63
C'bus 17 18 63
NYRB 16 14 62

FCD 17 30 75 31 45 53
Houston 16 27 75 34 48 56
Colo 15 24 75 37 51 59
Chivas 17 23 68 38 52 60
RSL 16 13 61
LA 18 18 60

One question: shouldn't the magic number be the point diff+1 so there's no tie-breaking worries?

You've got it nearly right. Looking at your DCU numbers, the magic number to clinch fourth (and thus the playoffs) is merely the magic number to stay ahead of Columbus. If the Crew slides to last United could still miss out on the playoffs and do better than that magic number (though unlikely because NYRB would need to go on a tear).

Similarly, the magic number for first place in the east is the number to clinch a total better than New England. But if Chicago or KC goes on a tear, your table doesn't account for that.

I look at it this way:
Team GP Points Max Magic#
DCU 18 41 83 **
NE 17 24 69 28
Chicago 16 20 68 27
KC 17 20 65 24
C'bus 17 18 63 22
NYRB 16 14 62 21

This just tells us the number to (for some reason I do this like Sachin) clinch at least a tie with these teams. In reality adding a 1 to the magic number would give the number that the other teams would find insurmountable.

[nobius]

You've got it nearly right. Looking at your DCU numbers, the magic number to clinch fourth (and thus the playoffs) is merely the magic number to stay ahead of Columbus. If the Crew slides to last United could still miss out on the playoffs and do better than that magic number (though unlikely because NYRB would need to go on a tear).

Similarly, the magic number for first place in the east is the number to clinch a total better than New England. But if Chicago or KC goes on a tear, your table doesn't account for that.

This just tells us the number to (for some reason I do this like Sachin) clinch at least a tie with these teams. In reality adding a 1 to the magic number would give the number that the other teams would find insurmountable.

Right, the reality is that the magic number depends on whomever is in 5th & 2nd place at that time, so I have to remember to keep the teams in the correct order as the season goes on and 2nd and 5th place change. Your table and Sanguine's can be smaller table since you're only calculating for DCU, but I was trying to do it for all of the teams at once.

[Sundevil9]

Your table and Sanguine's can be smaller table since you're only calculating for DCU, but I was trying to do it for all of the teams at once.

Hey, I'm very United-centric, what can I say?:D

The difficulty in doing it the way that you're doing it is tracking the games in hand. It's possible for the third place team to have a higher magic number than the second place team because it's got a couple of games in hand. Say Chicago had 20 points from 15 games played, United's magic number for them would be 30, instead of NE's 28.

Not that what you've done is incorrect, there's just more than one way to skin a Red Bull.;)

[mcontento]

Right, the reality is that the magic number depends on whomever is in 5th & 2nd place at that time, so I have to remember to keep the teams in the correct order as the season goes on and 2nd and 5th place change. Your table and Sanguine's can be smaller table since you're only calculating for DCU, but I was trying to do it for all of the teams at once.

I would recommend that you would want to establish individual team magic number charts as opposed to trying to track all teams based on who is in what place at the current time. It might be more labor intensive in terms of setting up, but it will reduce your opportunity for confusion since magic numbers are inherently team specific (e.g. Dallas can finish ahead of Salt Lake but still miss the playoffs if LA makes a solid run and Houston, Chivas and Colorado finish ahead of them). Their magic number is not simply XXX is in 5th place so they need to beat them, but they need to finish ahead of at least 2 out of 5 teams to clinch so they have to have a magic number for each.

[nobius]

Ok, so since I'm a Houston guy, this is the table for Houston to beat the other teams in our conference (added 1 to ensure no ties):

Team GP Points Max Mag #
Houston 16 27 75 **
FCD 17 30 75 49
CO 15 24 75 49
Chivas 17 23 68 42
RSL 16 13 61 35
LA 18 18 60 34

Did I get it right?

[mselden]

Forget the math for a minute. Based on history (and I know it is next to impossible to compare because of changes to the league structure), I would bet that DC will make the playoffs with two more wins. That's right, six points.

The mathematical extremes by nature have to assume there are no draws. Of course there will be draws. Looking at the last four seasons, and trying to adjust for changes in the league, 47 points should be enough to make the top four teams in either division.

[Stan Collins]

I'm not sure, but I'd bet the 45 KC got last year is the most anyone ever got and still missed the playoffs.

Similarly, the Supporters Shield winners in past seasons:

2005: 64 (32 games)
2004: 49 (30 games)
2003: 53 (30 games)
2002: 51 (28 games)
2001: 53 (26 games)
2000: 57 (32 games)

That's all the years post-shootout. That's an average of 1.837ppg, * 32 games = 59 points.

Subjectively, for the next closest team (Dallas) to get to 59, it'd be 29 more points in 15 more games, which is slightly better than their current pace, so 59 or maybe slightly better would probably do it this year as well.