BigSoccer Bundesliga Prediction League?

[Eisern Union]

Originally posted by wolfsburgh
Keep it simple: 1 point for a correct pick (win, loss, or draw). Winner of the week is the one with the most points (with number of correct scores being a tie break). Winner at the end of the year is either the one with the most cumulative points, or the one who won the most weeks (this is easier, since a cumulative score of all points from all weeks need not be kept), or both.

One problem with this (which I expressed earlier): Ties occur much less often that wins and losses, so if there is no compensation for picking a tie then no intellegent player ever would.

[wolfsburgh]

"That's not exactly what I call simple."

Actually, I think it is the simplest version. The tabulator goes down each person's prediction list and for every correct result, the person gets a point. Most points (correct predictions) wins the week. Simple. If at the at end of the week, more than one person has the highest number of points, you go back and see who has predicted accurately the most scores as a tiebreak. So ostensibly, there is only going to be one calculation per contestant unless there's a tie between two or more contestants, in which case the second calculation (number of correct scores) would only have to be done for those who are tied (as opposed to all contestants. Under a 3/1 system, you have to make two calculations per contestant.

[wolfsburgh]

"it doesn't really honor the difficulty of predicting a score correctly."

I think predicting the score correctly is mostly luck and, moreover, skews results. Under the 3/1 system, a person who predicts 7 out of 9 correctly (but gets no scores exactly right) earns the same number of points as the person who gets 3 out of 9 correctly (but lucks out and guesses two scores correctly). That does not seem fair, since I certainly believe the person who predicted 7/9 did a much better job than the person who predicted 3/9.

[wolfsburgh]

"three different categories . . . most wins"

If you want to make this a season-long competition, you need some sort of cumulative scorekeeping device under any system. The only two that come immediately to mind are cumulative points over the course of the season, most "most wins" (and by that, I mean most weeks won, not most scores predicted, as that would be the same as cumulative points). The latter is easier, since it is a heck of a lot easier to keep a running total of weeks won as opposed to total points.

[IASocFan]

I agree with Wolfsburgh. You should get a small bonus for exact score. That's why the MLS pool is 2 for right result, 2.5 for guessing a tie, and 3 for exact score. Fairly simple and should minimize posters getting the same weekly result.

[wolfsburgh]

"Ties occur must less often . . . ."

True. Statistically, I think roughly 25-30% of games end in ties, so if one wants to play the percentages, they would never pick a tie. Which is fine. I don't see why you should be rewarded for picking a tie, though. Under that logic, is it highly unlikely that Cottbus will beat Bayern, or less likely that an away team will beat a home team, so you should get extra points for picking upsets or picking away wins. And that too is fine--but it starts to get very complicated.

[wolfsburgh]

Bottom Line:

I really don't care how it's done. The person who ends up keeping track of the predictions is going to be the person who has to live with the system chosen, and as such, that person should have the final say (you made your bed, now you have to lie in it, or something like that).

[IASocFan]

German posters: I'll let you all discuss. I'm headed out of the country for a week's vacation, and will have uncertain internet access. Viel Glück!

Tom

[olafgb]

Wolfsburgh, predicting of course is always luck. You can also be much closer with a wrong prediction than with a prediction that brings you a point. I also don't see why in the 1/3 system you need to calculate in two different categories, it's simply adding the number of points for each contestant while yours needs three.

But we could argue endlessly, let's wait for the result of the election and accept what's being decided there. It's no holy battle for me, the 1/3 system is just the usual one you'll find in Germany.