Relegation/Promotion Thread [R]

[wolfsburgh]

Since Bayern has removed all the suspense at the top of the table, the battle against relegation moves front and center. And quite a battle it is. By my estimation, 9 teams (today's bottom 9) are in danger of the drop (I had to draw the line somewhere, so I drew it at Wolfsburg; I may not be entirely impartial, but with 6 teams and 6 points between them and the drop, I think they are the first "safe" team, although safe is a relative term this year). Just five points separate #10 Bochum from the relegation zone. Your thoughts on who's going down? And while we're at it, who's going to replace them?

[wolfsburgh]

My thoughts. At the beginning of the season, I predicted Cottbus, Nuremberg, and TSV 1860. While TSV is dropping faster than the NASDAQ, they are safe, with 7 teams and 8 points separating them from the drop. But I still like my picks of Cottbus and Nuremberg. Cottbus got hot to make things interesting, but ultimately, they just don't have enough horses to keep it up. Nuremberg just looks atrocious right now, and also have a rather significant talent deficit.

Who's my third pick? It's not 1.FCK; they'll get enough points at home to be safe. It's not Leverkusen; just too much talent there. It's not Gladbach; they'll sweat it until the end, and probably finish 15th, but Forssell and a recovering Van Lent will do enough to stabilize this listing ship. It's not Hansa; they always find a way to stay up, and the BL needs one East German team. It's not Bochum, although they are really struggling right now and given their early form, might not be in the proper mindset for a relegation battle. It's probably not Hannover, although they can't seem to get out of the way of trouble. So that leaves Bielefeld.

[wolfsburgh]

And who'll replace Cottbus, Nuremberg and Bielefeld? Cologne, for sure. And I think Freiburg will pull away a bit at the end. That leaves Mainz, Frankfurt, and Trier (Trier?) for the last spot. I'll stick with Frankfurt, not because I think they are going to win promotion so much as I think Mainz will find a way to lose promotion.

[olafgb]

kicker exactly had this topic today and I basically agree with them in all aspects:

1860: tendency falling, but 39 pts were always enough to stay in and they just need further 6 pts for that.

Wolfsburg: tendency rising, coaching change was a good move.

Bochum: tendency falling, four games without win, key players missing.

Hannover: tendency rising, 13 pts in 2003 so far.

Rostock: tendency falling, very weak at home

Bielefeld: tendency falling, without win since eight games, harmless offence.

Gladbach: tendency rising, coaching change was good and defence stays; critical is the personnel situation though

Leverkusen: tendency rising, quality of the roster and players returning from injuries.

Lautern: tendency rising, eight games without loss; critical: still no win on the road and six of the ten remaining are on the road.

Nürnberg: tendency falling, 14 pts lost in the last quarter hour, key players in a crisis

Cottbus: tendency falling, lacking substance and two straight losses.


My pick at the moment is Nürnberg, Cottbus and Bielefeld. With Cottbus I'm not sure, they need to win the crucial game against Kaiserslautern, which would give them a boost and Kaiserslautern also a kick to the wrong direction again; if Cottbus does not win, then I'm pretty sure they'll relegate. Nürnberg is for me the securest pick at the moment, but also they are still able to turn it around - maybe a coaching is a final and important step for them. Bielefeld as well as Bochum underestimate the situation and overestimate their abilities, both might get into deep trouble.


Promotion: unfortunately since Aachen's loss this weekend, the race is cut to five teams (although Aachen still has a mini-chance). Cologne should be able to bring home their 7 pts lead although they are everything but convincing at the moment (but have lots of luck - always a huge factor for success). Freiburg usually has a roster that makes it impossible to not promote, but the offence has very weak nerves, which could be fatal at the end. Mainz might suffer a similar fate as last year, although Frankfurt also doesn't convince me, especially the offence is weak. Trier might be the lucky fifth to use their great streak, but actually they are too weak for Bundesliga and their stadium is nothing more than 2.Bundesliga average. Cologne, Freiburg and Frankfurt are my picks.

[wolfsburgh]

Great minds think alike.

[wolfsburgh]

Frankfurt wins today, so they jump into 3rd place, ahead of Mainz. 5th Place Trier is three points and three goals (differential) out of the third spot.

[Motown_Mike]

I disagree that Cottbus is going down....they always find a way to stick around. Bielefeld is gone, Nurnberg is gone....and the 3rd to go down will be: Hansa Rostock. Coming up will be Koln, Freiburg and, in a big surprise.....Aachen.

[wolfsburgh]

Originally posted by Motown_Mike
I disagree that Cottbus is going down....they always find a way to stick around. Bielefeld is gone, Nurnberg is gone....and the 3rd to go down will be: Hansa Rostock. Coming up will be Koln, Freiburg and, in a big surprise.....Aachen.

While Cottbus may "always" find a way to stick around, "always" in its case is two years. In Hansa's case, "always" is something like 8 years (I think this is their eighth consecutive year in the BL). So if it boils down to some sort of innate ability to avoid relegation, I like Rostock's odds over Cottbus' odds. But I'm with you on Bielefeld and Nuremberg.

[Motown_Mike]

I think the well has run dry for Rostock....Cottbus has been playing well lately. I also think that had 1860 not started the season so well, they would be headed down. Fortunately, they have enough points to where they should be okay. The great news is that it looks like FC St. Pauli may escape relegation from the 2.Bundesliga.

[wolfsburgh]

As between Cottbus and Rostock, I'd rather have Rostock in the BL. Bigger market, better stadium, and more BL tradition (for that matter, more tradition in the old East German league, too). They are in a better position than Cottbus to be THE East German perennial, and there are no other contenders on the horizon (Union Berlin is going in the wrong direction, while Dresden, Aue and Erfurt have fallen off the pace and are likely to spend at least another year in the RL) so strictly for that reason, I'd prefer to see them stay up. But if the well runs dry, the well runs dry. I just don't think it's going to happen.

I too think St. Pauli is going to escape relegation which, given the club's unique identity, is a good thing. They can't compete in the 1.BL, but can be a 2.BL stalwart.

[Alex_K]

Originally posted by Motown_Mike
The great news is that it looks like FC St. Pauli may escape relegation from the 2.Bundesliga.

That depends on your perspective.


(But i would agree if my club wouldn't fight relegation too).

[Motown_Mike]

I just like the fact that St. Pauli FC and their supporters are a bit unusual and IMO are a breath of fresh air for the DFB. I'd hate to see them buried in the regionalliga and out of the public eye. At least in 2.Bundesliga they are not off the radar, so to speak. I agree they'll probably never be in 1.Bundesliga for any extended period of time, but it would be nice if they were.

[olafgb]

Result of the kicker poll of who will relegate:

1 1.FC Nürnberg 85.9%
2 Energie Cottbus 79.2%
3 Arminia Bielefeld 36.4%
4 Bayer Leverkusen 34.8%
5 Borussia Mönchengladbach 17.8%
6 1.FC Kaiserslautern 14.0%
7 Hannover 96 12.0%
8 Hansa Rostock 11.7%
9 VfL Bochum 4.9%
10 VfL Wolfsburg 1.7%
11 1860 Munich 1.6%

4623 voters with up to three votes each

[Motown_Mike]

Well done, as always, Olaf.....thank you for your efforts.

[wolfsburgh]

Promotion:

Losses today by Mainz and Trier provides a big opportunity for Frankfurt and Freiburg this weekend to put some distance between them and their closest chasers. Frankfurt is home against Aachen in a game both desperately want (and in Aachen's case, needs) to win. Freiburg is away against relegation candidates Mannheim.

Query: with Greuther's win today, are they back in the hunt?

[GladbachPat]

as a Gladbach stalwart, i have to say that i'm laying my bet on them to keep the class and avoid relegation
hopefully, Leverkusen can likewise avoid the drop with a new coach and players returning from injury
not that i wish them any misfortune, but i see Nürnberg, Cottbus and Lautern greeting the 2. BL at the end of the season

Glückwunsch an die 11 vom Niederrhein!

[domingo]

I believe Nürnberg and Cottbus go down. The third team could be Bielefeld or Gladbach.
I wish it would be Bielefeld. A lot of my friends are with Gladbach and I don´t want to see them cry again. But on the other hand... ;)
I think K´lautern will win the most of it´s games and have nothing to do with relegation in the end.
My club Hansa doesn´t play nice football this season, but for 4-5 other teams it should be enough!!!

domingo
Hansa forever!

[olafgb]

2. Bundesliga promotion got interesting again after this weekend. First Frankfurt loses at home against Trier in the 88th with a direct free kick from the own half, and today Cologne suffered the first loss of the season (1-4 at home against Mainz). Cologne with 7 and Freiburg with 5 are still very safe though, but Frankfurt only got two points left to Trier and three to Mainz. And with 5 pts back Aachen is waiting for further losses.

[wolfsburgh]

The promotion race is very interesting. Cologne and Freiburg are going to be promoted barring an untimely collapse. The battle for the third spot has been joined, though. Mainz's win today puts them just one point behind 3rd place Frankfurt, and Trier is just one point back of Mainz (two behind Frankfurt). Aachen probably has too many teams to pass to earn promotion (they need Frankfurt, Mainz and Trier to falter), but could make things interesting at the end. I haven't seen Cologne, but from what I've read, does it seem like Cologne is headed right down to the 2.Bund. after next season?

As for relegation to the 2.Bund., a big win by Gladbach puts them out of the relegation spots and a big win by Nuremberg gives them hope. I'm still sticking with Cottbus and Nuremberg to go down, but Bochum is looking more and more like a goner.

[wolfsburgh]

Originally posted by Motown_Mike
The great news is that it looks like FC St. Pauli may escape relegation from the 2.Bundesliga.

I thought so, too, but this weekend's loss to Reutlingen seals their fate IMO. It looks very bleak for Mannheim, St. Pauli, and Braunschweig. Karlsruhe still can catch Ahlen for the last safe spot in the table, but I doubt they will. I think everyone one else is safe. St. Pauli's best hope is to finish 15th and hope a team ahead of them gets relegated for financial reasons.