Dan Loney
19 Jun 2006, 06:52 PM
Well, the fish-or-cut bait games start tomorrow, and they start with a whimper.
TUESDAY, 7:00 am Pacific (all times Pacific, because it's my damn post):
Ecuador v. Germany
Costa Rica v. Poland
Can't think of a single reason any starter would play either of these games. Four years ago Poland, to their credit, took the spoiler role seriously, but now it's just to avoid the potential of finishing last. As for the headliner game, the honor of winning the group and the mirage of maybe getting Trinidad in the round of 16 can't be worth the privilege of resting starters. The early games are just for stats.
12:00 noon
Sweden v. England
Paraguay v. Trinidad
Right now England is the worst team to have clinched qualification, which is a lot better than being the best team to go home. England's motivations are (a) to beat a team they never have under their current coach, Sven-Goran Tobecoachingsomewhereelse; (b) the vain hope of quieting their rabid media who have greeted their performances so far with a collective "yeesh"; (c) the love of every Trinidad & Tobago fan; and (d) avoiding Germany in the next round in favor of Ecuador. Because Germany is at home, that's why, and they're a deadly rival. Ecuador's playing better, but the intangibles say avoid Germany. I think Sweden gets the draw, and gets three more days of self-doubts before losing in the second round. They might as well give Trinidad that privilege.
WEDNESDAY, 7:00 am
Portugal v. Mexico
Iran v. Angola
I don't see how Portugal gives it their A-game for this one. There's not going to be any dropoff in quality between Group D's winner and runner-up, so there's no incentive to win Group C to speak of. You'd think five centuries of colonization would be worth one World Cup favor, but the World Cup respects no alliances. Mexico, like England, reassures its worried fans and gives them hope for the next round...where they will be crushed.
12:00 noon
Holland v. Argentina
Ivory Coast v. Serbia & Montenegro
If the Ivory Coast were in Group G, they'd already be in the second round. But, if Superman were born in Germany, the Nazis would have won the war, so there you go. I suppose it's possible that the Dutch or Argentines are petrified at the thought of facing Portugal or Mexico, and we get to see one of the biggest brawls in World Cup history. Lots of things are possible.
THURSDAY, 7:00 am
Italy v. Czech Republic
Ghana v. United States
Thank Ghana and Brazil for making this day interesting. We all know the ramifications of this one. Sadly, this is the first set of matches where everyone has a chance at the first round. No Paraguays here.
12:00 noon
Brazil v. Japan
Croatia v. Australia
The undercard here is the interesting one, but how funny would it be if Brazil decides to mess with everyone's heads, sleep through the Japan game to the tune of a three-goal loss, and hand them a ticket to the next round? Or give Australia the group title? Much more likely, Australia gets the date with Italy, Czech Republic, or Ghana.
FRIDAY, 7:00 am
Spain v. Saudi Arabia
Tunisia v. Ukraine
Spain would like to avoid France, and would love love love another crack at Korea, but this is the early Friday set, so they won't get to chart their own course. I don't see how Spain blows the group title, or how Arabia comes close to making up the goal differential hole they've dug themselves, so it looks like Tunisia v. Ukraine will decide the runner-up. That should be a very interesting game, although comparative scores against Saudi Arabia argue against that.
12:00 noon
France v. Togo
Korea v. Switzerland
As of today, France is in third place, and in danger of ending Zidane's international career on a very sour note. Standing in their way is Togo, who are already doneski, and have only been good for off-field coaching horse laughs. I don't think Togo is an insurable risk in this game, which brings us to Korea v. Switzerland. Let's assume France ends the day with 5 points and +2 goal differential or greater, given that I think France beats Togo at least 2-0. Korea and Switzerland are each at 4 points, Switzerland +2, Korea +1. Winner wins the group, if there is a winner. A draw sends Korea home and Switzerland to face Spain. Korea is a highly popular team to hate for perceived referee gifts, but I think they're just flat better than Switzerland.
Projected second round:
England v. Ecuador
Sweden v. Germany
Portugal v. Holland
Mexico v. Argentina
Italy v. Australia
Brazil v. United States (same to you, buddy)
Spain v. France
Korea v. Ukraine
TUESDAY, 7:00 am Pacific (all times Pacific, because it's my damn post):
Ecuador v. Germany
Costa Rica v. Poland
Can't think of a single reason any starter would play either of these games. Four years ago Poland, to their credit, took the spoiler role seriously, but now it's just to avoid the potential of finishing last. As for the headliner game, the honor of winning the group and the mirage of maybe getting Trinidad in the round of 16 can't be worth the privilege of resting starters. The early games are just for stats.
12:00 noon
Sweden v. England
Paraguay v. Trinidad
Right now England is the worst team to have clinched qualification, which is a lot better than being the best team to go home. England's motivations are (a) to beat a team they never have under their current coach, Sven-Goran Tobecoachingsomewhereelse; (b) the vain hope of quieting their rabid media who have greeted their performances so far with a collective "yeesh"; (c) the love of every Trinidad & Tobago fan; and (d) avoiding Germany in the next round in favor of Ecuador. Because Germany is at home, that's why, and they're a deadly rival. Ecuador's playing better, but the intangibles say avoid Germany. I think Sweden gets the draw, and gets three more days of self-doubts before losing in the second round. They might as well give Trinidad that privilege.
WEDNESDAY, 7:00 am
Portugal v. Mexico
Iran v. Angola
I don't see how Portugal gives it their A-game for this one. There's not going to be any dropoff in quality between Group D's winner and runner-up, so there's no incentive to win Group C to speak of. You'd think five centuries of colonization would be worth one World Cup favor, but the World Cup respects no alliances. Mexico, like England, reassures its worried fans and gives them hope for the next round...where they will be crushed.
12:00 noon
Holland v. Argentina
Ivory Coast v. Serbia & Montenegro
If the Ivory Coast were in Group G, they'd already be in the second round. But, if Superman were born in Germany, the Nazis would have won the war, so there you go. I suppose it's possible that the Dutch or Argentines are petrified at the thought of facing Portugal or Mexico, and we get to see one of the biggest brawls in World Cup history. Lots of things are possible.
THURSDAY, 7:00 am
Italy v. Czech Republic
Ghana v. United States
Thank Ghana and Brazil for making this day interesting. We all know the ramifications of this one. Sadly, this is the first set of matches where everyone has a chance at the first round. No Paraguays here.
12:00 noon
Brazil v. Japan
Croatia v. Australia
The undercard here is the interesting one, but how funny would it be if Brazil decides to mess with everyone's heads, sleep through the Japan game to the tune of a three-goal loss, and hand them a ticket to the next round? Or give Australia the group title? Much more likely, Australia gets the date with Italy, Czech Republic, or Ghana.
FRIDAY, 7:00 am
Spain v. Saudi Arabia
Tunisia v. Ukraine
Spain would like to avoid France, and would love love love another crack at Korea, but this is the early Friday set, so they won't get to chart their own course. I don't see how Spain blows the group title, or how Arabia comes close to making up the goal differential hole they've dug themselves, so it looks like Tunisia v. Ukraine will decide the runner-up. That should be a very interesting game, although comparative scores against Saudi Arabia argue against that.
12:00 noon
France v. Togo
Korea v. Switzerland
As of today, France is in third place, and in danger of ending Zidane's international career on a very sour note. Standing in their way is Togo, who are already doneski, and have only been good for off-field coaching horse laughs. I don't think Togo is an insurable risk in this game, which brings us to Korea v. Switzerland. Let's assume France ends the day with 5 points and +2 goal differential or greater, given that I think France beats Togo at least 2-0. Korea and Switzerland are each at 4 points, Switzerland +2, Korea +1. Winner wins the group, if there is a winner. A draw sends Korea home and Switzerland to face Spain. Korea is a highly popular team to hate for perceived referee gifts, but I think they're just flat better than Switzerland.
Projected second round:
England v. Ecuador
Sweden v. Germany
Portugal v. Holland
Mexico v. Argentina
Italy v. Australia
Brazil v. United States (same to you, buddy)
Spain v. France
Korea v. Ukraine