Statistical analysis of Italy vs. USA game

[illinizissou]

Again the formula is:

[(Shot Assists)+(Drawn Fouls)+(Headers Won)+(Shots on Goal)+(Players Beat)+ (Steals)]-[(Miss Touches)+(Bad Passes)+(Fouls)+(Yellow Cards)+(Red Card)]

Shot Assists - Any ball passed to a position where a teammate has a chance to score.
Drawn Fouls - Any foul drawn on the opposing team's side of the field.
Headers Won - Any contested header that you win and your team retains possession.
Shots on Goal - Any shot with a realistic chance of scoring that is near the frame.
Players Beat - Any time a player challenges another player and gets past them.
Steals - Any time a player takes the ball away from the opposing team and your team gains clear possession of the ball.
Miss Touches - Any time you lose the ball to the opposing team and they gain clear possession of the ball.
Bad Passes - Any time you pass the ball and the opposing team gains clear possession of it.
Fouls - Any foul on your side of the field.
Yellow Cards - Any yellow card.
Red Card - Any red card.

The keeper is not considered part of the team so possession is not gained if he gets the ball. Out of play is not considered possession so no possession is awarded or lost by playing it out. Please let me know of any ideas you have to make this formula better.

I attempted to add forward passes but it unfairly helped players who play defense.

First half results:

Reyna - (4)
Donovan - (-2)
McBride - (0)
Chund - (-5)
Gooch - (1)
Pope - (-4)
Convey - (4)
Mastro - (5)
Dempsey - (5)
Boca - (-2)

Second half results:

Reyna - (3)
Donovan - (8)
McBride - (2)
Chund - (3)
Gooch - (4)
Pope - (-3)
Convey - (0)
Beasley - (0)
Dempsey - (0)
Boca - (1)
Conrad - (4)

Game totals:

Reyna - (7)
Donovan - (6)
McBride - (2)
Chund - (-2)
Gooch - (5)
Pope - (-6)
Convey - (4)
Mastro - (5)
Beasley - (0)
Dempsey - (5)
Boca - (-1)
Conrad - (4)

I was surprised with how similar the stats were, just like the first game, to my viewing of the game. Here are the complete stats as well as the complete stats from the first game:

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/italyvusa.jpg

http://i31.photobucket.com/albums/c391/illinizissou/stats.jpg

[Diomedes]

That's an interesting system, but there are still so many things that can't be put on a stat sheet; like how many times an opposing player was forced to play the ball back because everyone forward was to well covered, or how many defenders a striker may take with him on a run to open up a teammate, how many well-weighted balls outlet a possible counter attack, etc and etc.

Your system is certainly interesting though.

[illinizissou]

That's an interesting system, but there are still so many things that can't be put on a stat sheet; like how many times an opposing player was forced to play the ball back because everyone forward was to well covered, or how many defenders a striker may take with him on a run to open up a teammate, how many well-weighted balls outlet a possible counter attack, etc and etc.

Absolutely, I should have added that it's purpose is as a baseline analysis only. It's so difficult to grasp all the elements of soccer with statistics.

[Degtyarev]

I spilled my coffee al over my desk when is saw that spreadsheet coming up. I've never seen anything like it.

It's so difficult to grasp all the elements of soccer with statistics.

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?

[illinizissou]

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?

Let's say you miss a game, or whatever and you want to catch up with what happened. The best way to do that is statistics. The only other way is to read the paper. I can say most Americans take what they read from the press with a huge grain of salt, and esspecially the sports press. Therefore statistics are one of the only unbiased reviews that you can get.

[FirstStar]

I spilled my coffee al over my desk when is saw that spreadsheet coming up. I've never seen anything like it.



Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?

Exposure to baseball at an early age. No sport in the world lends itself to statistical analysis the way baseball does (also, to my knowledge, no other sport in the world plays 162 games in a regular season and, thus, has such large sample sizes).

[bmurphyfl]

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?

It's related to the influence of Frederick Taylor (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederick_Winslow_Taylor) and his Time and Motion Studies (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_and_motion_study) during the industrial revolution. Workers got used to having their performances statistically analyzed and then applied similar analyses to their sports heroes.

[mesican]

Let's say you miss a game, or whatever and you want to catch up with what happened. The best way to do that is statistics. The only other way is to read the paper. I can say most Americans take what they read from the press with a huge grain of salt, and esspecially the sports press. Therefore statistics are one of the only unbiased reviews that you can get.




Dude with all due respect, that perfect for the MLS but not for the World Cup. There is only 2 stats that count in Futbol. How many goals scored and how many yellow/red cards. Thats it, we could care less how many shots on goal, how many offsides, when they had breakast, when they got laid, how many fouls committed by them and on them.

[illinizissou]

Dude with all due respect, that perfect for the MLS but not for the World Cup. There is only 2 stats that count in Futbol. How many goals scored and how many yellow/red cards. Thats it, we could care less how many shots on goal, how many offsides, when they had breakast, when they got laid, how many fouls committed by them and on them.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Completely ignoring what the players are doing however makes it difficult to have an educated opinion on who should play, what lineup would be best and so forth. Some people could care less about that stuff, but there are a lot of people who are interested in it.

[DoctorJones24]

Dude with all due respect, that perfect for the MLS but not for the World Cup. There is only 2 stats that count in Futbol. How many goals scored and how many yellow/red cards. Thats it, we could care less how many shots on goal, how many offsides, when they had breakast, when they got laid, how many fouls committed by them and on them.

Wow. So original.

[Nutmeg]

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?
OPTA

[Q.E.D.]

I was surprised with how similar the stats were, just like the first game, to my viewing of the game.
I also find your analysis largely in line with my impressions from the game. However, some things are still not captured well. (The previous thread about USA-CZR had some good suggestions for other stats to add.)

In particular, I though Bocanegra had a great game, but scored poorly in your system. It seems that some additional defense-centric stats could help there. For example, stats related to tackles (you have steals, but some good tackles merely break up a play and the tackler doesn't gain possession himself), clearances, blocks (of opposing player's shots), etc.

Good stuff, though. I don't know how you find time to go back and watch the game carefully enough to compile these numbers! I look forward to the Ghana game and post-analysis.

-Matthew-

[mesican]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion. Completely ignoring what the players are doing however makes it difficult to have an educated opinion on who should play, what lineup would be best and so forth. Some people could care less about that stuff, but there are a lot of people who are interested in it.

What that is doing its turning Futbol into hockey.

[illinizissou]

In particular, I though Bocanegra had a great game, but scored poorly in your system. It seems that some additional defense-centric stats could help there. For example, stats related to tackles (you have steals, but some good tackles merely break up a play and the tackler doesn't gain possession himself), clearances, blocks (of opposing player's shots), etc.

This is the one area I'm really dissatisfied with in my formula. I want to add in some kind of stat for marking, tackling, etc. to show to defensive skills, but I'm just not sure how to do it. A half a point for a clearance may be an idea.

Thanks

[Nutmeg]

Just for comparison's sake, my post-game player ratings (http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8758454&postcount=54):

Keller - 6 - Nice saves, poor distribution
Cherundolo - 8 - Good going forward, might have saved the game by closing down Del Piero
Gooch - 9 - Owned the hottest striker in the world
Pope - 4 - Agoos 2002 so far
Bocanegra - 8 - Handled his side
Mastro - 7 - If he played a full 90, he would have been my MotM
Convey - 6 - Tried a lot of things
Dempsey - 8 - I think we can all agree he's for real
Reyna - 6 - Played his heart out
Donovan - 8 - Everywhere, offensively and defensively
McBride - 7 - Never seen more effort from any player, ever - inspiring


Beasley - 4 - Didn't do what he was brought in to do
Conrad - 7 - Looked better than Pope

The only two that looked really out of line with your statistical analysis are Bocanegra and Cherundolo. Interestingly enough, both outside backs.

[illinizissou]

The only two that looked really out of line with your statistical analysis are Bocanegra and Cherundolo. Interestingly enough, both outside backs.

There's definately a part missing for defenders, esspecially on the outside with out of play right there, since it's so much harder for them to get a steal.

[NGV]

There's definately a part missing for defenders, esspecially on the outside with out of play right there, since it's so much harder for them to get a steal.
It's not just that it's hard for them to get a steal, but also that even attempting a steal is often a bad idea - the first priority of a defender is to contain the attacker, not get beat, and not permit a dangerous pass or shot.

This is true for all defenders, but I think it's especially true for outside backs.

[Craig P]

If it helps, some thoughts on defensive events for outside defenders:

Getting beaten one-on-one: big negative
Conceding a cross cleanly: moderate negative
Conceding a contested cross: modest negative to neutral
Conceding a corner: modest negative
Conceding a throw-in: neutral (worst-case) to moderate positive (best-case)
Conceding a foul: modest to big negative, depending on location (can be similar to a corner, or can be a PK)
Winning a foul: positive
Forcing a negative pass: neutral to modest positive

(I'm assuming you've already got a clean steal in there as a positive.)

[NGV]

I spilled my coffee al over my desk when is saw that spreadsheet coming up. I've never seen anything like it.

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?
Statistics are necessary because they provide an objective basis for evaluation. Even someone who tries their best evaluate a player's performance objectively will have biases, and people tend to focus on and remember things that fit with their preconceived views, and to overlook or discount things that don't fit.

Goals scored and goals allowed are obviously the most important statistics. But goals are rare, and players that don't score goals play a big part in creating goals or preventing them. So it's helpful to look at other in-game events that increase the probability of goals. For example, a cross that finds an attacker is more likely to lead to a goal than a cross that ends up in the seats, and a giveaway is more likely to lead to an opponent's goal than a completed pass.

The usefulness of statistics in soccer is pretty limited, but there's a place for them if those limits are always kept in mind.

[MarioKempes]

Why are Americans such statistics-fetishists?

Because they are intelligent