Ghana's advancement scenarios, and what it means for us

[superdave]

Ghana is currently in 3rd place, even with the CR on points, but down 1 on GD. And they're one point behind Italy. That means that in order to advance, they have to pass someone. Since the two teams ahead of them are playing each other, Ghana is guaranteed advancement with a win. Not only that, if the other match draws, Ghana takes first with a win.

If Ghana loses, they cannot advance.

If they draw, they advance if the Czechs lose. If the other match is a draw, a Ghana draw sends them home. If the Czechs win by 2, and Ghana draws, they draw level on points with Italy, and it'll come down to total goals, and if THAT is even, since Italy beat Ghana, Ghana goes home.

What does it mean? It means Ghana is essentially in the same boat as we are, except with a better GD.

Essentially, but not exactly. The big difference is that they only need a draw to advance if Italy wins.

What it means is that going into the match, Ghana has almost as much aversion to a draw as we do. So one would expect them to start out playing for a win every bit as much as us. The difference is that if Italy gets an early goal, especially if Italy gets two, Ghana suddenly is totally content with a draw.

I don't have a big finish, I just wonder how it will affect Bruce's lineup. My opinion is that we really need to "replace" Mastroenni with Johnson and possibly "replace" Pope with Lewis (Boca moves to the middle) because we need a win, and we may need a big win. Further, we need an early goal as insurance against a scenario under which Ghana starts bunkering, happy with a draw.

One other point is that I think Ghana's situation means that we have more chance of getting a big win (i.e., 4% instead of 1% ;) ) than is apparent at first. If Ghana gets behind, they may very well make some crazy subs and play a 2-4-4 or something, because they need a WIN, at least until Italy goes ahead of the CR. So we want to put them in a spot where they need two goals.

So, I guess one important factor is that we need to not only score before Ghana scores, we need to score before Italy scores, too. Because in either case, Ghana bunkers.

Thoughts?

[Metrogo]

Good analysis of the situation.

And if it hasn't been posted yet, yesterday's results in Group F have diminished the advantage of gamesmanship. Brazil has already won the group. I assume that Italy and Cz will want to win this group and avoid Brazil.

[bmurphyfl]

Further, we need an early goal as insurance against a scenario under which Ghana starts bunkering, happy with a draw.

However, keep in mind that if we get an early goal or two, both Italy and the Czechs will know it and know that they only need to tie to both advance. Hopefully, avoiding Brazil will be enough of an incentive to keep both Italy and Czechs attacking in that situation.

But we are getting too cute by half with all of this talk about when we should or should not score. We just need to take care of business, win and let whatever happens happen.

[WestLooper]

I assume that Italy and Cz will want to win this group and avoid Brazil.

For some reason, I have a bad feeling Cze would be just as happy as we would to simply advance out of the group. If it means a meeting with Brazil, at least they will possibly have some personnel back, and regain some confidence after a poor showing vs. Ghana. If they play like they did vs. us in game 1, they can beat Brazil. Italy on the other hand I can see trying to avoid Brazil at all costs.

What Cze should be more worried about is the fact that a draw coupled with a Ghana win eliminates them from the tournament.

A scenario where we go ahead 1-0 early while Italy-Cze is still 0-0 may actually be a negative situation for us. Which is just weird.

[obie]

The Italians don't just want advancement; they want to win the group to avoid Brazil. And if the US takes the lead, then both the Czechs and Italians know for certain that a win gets them a 2nd-round date with either Croatia or Australia. Every team on Thursday has a strong incentive to win, not draw. That's what makes this group so great right now.

[AGF Aarhus]

The Italians don't just want advancement; they want to win the group to avoid Brazil. And if the US takes the lead, then both the Czechs and Italians know for certain that a win gets them a 2nd-round date with either Croatia or Australia. Every team on Thursday has a strong incentive to win, not draw. That's what makes this group so great right now.
Exactly.

We need to take care of business, and so does everyone else. A team the bunkers because another game is 1-0 is playing a very dangerous game, as the score in the other game can easily change and is totally out of their control. Every team will be going hard for a win.

[FirstStar]

As SD notes, until someone scores EVERY TEAM IS PLAYING TO WIN. Forget this "the Czechs will be happy with a draw" nonsense. If they draw and Ghana wins, the Czechs' next match is against Andora in a Euro '08 tune-up.

Until the scoreboard lights up, everyone is gunning for a win (albeit in different ways). My only wish is that the games could be played in a total media blackout from each other (impossible, I know). Further, I even think an early US or Ghana goal won't effect the Italy-Czech match that much, as the teams will be afraid of getting burned by a quick score change in our match. The same thing in our match-- Italy would have to score several goals before Ghana can feel comfortable with a draw.

The only real worry we have is if Ghana scores on us early. That's what could doom us. All the rest is pretty minor in comparison.

[Dr. Wankler]

A scenario where we go ahead 1-0 early while Italy-Cze is still 0-0 may actually be a negative situation for us. Which is just weird.

Yeah, I get dizzy when I think of the various scenarios in the two games, like who scores when, and how that might effect the other match, etc.

Which is why I'm with bmurphyfl: we need to just go out there and win the damn thing. If that's good enough based on what happens in the other match, "hello, Brazil." If the other match's result means that it isn't good enough, we go out with four points and four years' worth of questions like, "what would've happened if we didn't look like the ********ing Long John Silver Impersonators against the Czechs? Will Eddie Pope still have that parrot on his shoulder when he returns to MLS? etc...."

And if we lose or draw, we just log onto to bigsoccer and call for the head of Bruce Arena.

So basically it's reduced to two scenarios: win and hope for the best. Draw or lose and start a weekend-long bender at noon on Thursday.

[Nermalthecat]

The Italians don't just want advancement; they want to win the group to avoid Brazil. And if the US takes the lead, then both the Czechs and Italians know for certain that a win gets them a 2nd-round date with either Croatia or Australia. Every team on Thursday has a strong incentive to win, not draw. That's what makes this group so great right now.

That's not true. A US win or draw gives Italy the group with a draw.

It's really a very weird situation. If the US goes up early, ITA and CZE become very, very content with a draw. If ITA goes up early, GHA becomes content with a draw.

Because the US has to win to have any chance and CZE has to win to avoid the possibility of being knocked out, it should make for some very compelling soccer. It's just weird that an early US goal very well could make it harder for us to finish second in the group, as even a GHA draw would put ITA and CZE through if they draw. Our best hope is probably to have ITA score before us.

[Nermalthecat]

The only real worry we have is if Ghana scores on us early. That's what could doom us. All the rest is pretty minor in comparison.

Weirdly, that might not be the absolute worst thing in the world. Yes, there is the not-so-insignificant task of having to score twice to win, but if GHA geos up, you know damn well the Italians and Czechs then both will be trying to win that game.

My perfect world: Italy scores early (before the US does). Eddie Johnson then scores before halftime and then runs at Bruce pointing at a calendar, asking why he was 10 days late in playing him. US then goes into half up 1-0 and so does ITA, meaning CZE and GHA know they have to score. Both ITA and USA catch the opponent pushing with a counter and end it.

ITA wins the group. USA gets Brazil.

[Lloyd Heilbrunn]

Ghana is currently in 3rd place, even with the CR on points, but down 1 on GD. And they're one point behind Italy. That means that in order to advance, they have to pass someone. Since the two teams ahead of them are playing each other, Ghana is guaranteed advancement with a win. Not only that, if the other match draws, Ghana takes first with a win.

If Ghana loses, they cannot advance.

If they draw, they advance if the Czechs lose. If the other match is a draw, a Ghana draw sends them home. If the Czechs win by 2, and Ghana draws, they draw level on points with Italy, and it'll come down to total goals, and if THAT is even, since Italy beat Ghana, Ghana goes home.

What does it mean? It means Ghana is essentially in the same boat as we are, except with a better GD.

Essentially, but not exactly. The big difference is that they only need a draw to advance if Italy wins.

What it means is that going into the match, Ghana has almost as much aversion to a draw as we do. So one would expect them to start out playing for a win every bit as much as us. The difference is that if Italy gets an early goal, especially if Italy gets two, Ghana suddenly is totally content with a draw.

I don't have a big finish, I just wonder how it will affect Bruce's lineup. My opinion is that we really need to "replace" Mastroenni with Johnson and possibly "replace" Pope with Lewis (Boca moves to the middle) because we need a win, and we may need a big win. Further, we need an early goal as insurance against a scenario under which Ghana starts bunkering, happy with a draw.

One other point is that I think Ghana's situation means that we have more chance of getting a big win (i.e., 4% instead of 1% ;) ) than is apparent at first. If Ghana gets behind, they may very well make some crazy subs and play a 2-4-4 or something, because they need a WIN, at least until Italy goes ahead of the CR. So we want to put them in a spot where they need two goals.

So, I guess one important factor is that we need to not only score before Ghana scores, we need to score before Italy scores, too. Because in either case, Ghana bunkers.

Thoughts?

Ghana attacked like crazy with 1 and 2 goal leads vs CZ, I´m unconvinced they can play any other way!!

[FirstStar]

Weirdly, that might not be the absolute worst thing in the world. Yes, there is the not-so-insignificant task of having to score twice to win, but if GHA geos up, you know damn well the Italians and Czechs then both will be trying to win that game.

My perfect world: Italy scores early (before the US does). Eddie Johnson then scores before halftime and then runs at Bruce pointing at a calendar, asking why he was 10 days late in playing him. US then goes into half up 1-0 and so does ITA, meaning CZE and GHA know they have to score. Both ITA and USA catch the opponent pushing with a counter and end it.

ITA wins the group. USA gets Brazil.

Clearly, the best thing that can happen is for the US to put 5 on the board in the opening 20 minutes. That'll put a little pressure on the Italy-Czech match.

[KZ Man]

So, I guess one important factor is that we need to not only score before Ghana scores, we need to score before Italy scores, too. Because in either case, Ghana bunkers.

Thoughts?

Interesting point. Unfortunately I haven't seen any Ghana games. What do we know about Ghana's ability to bunker?

Main point, however, is that we just need to come out and take care of business. If the teams plays as it did against Italy, I have few worries.

[dcole]

Much like the Bruce, I haven't scouted Ghana. ;)

Can someone familiar with Ghana explain what their likely game plan will be without Asamoah and Muntari? I've read that Pimpong is likely to start for Asamoah. How much of a step down is that for them? Who is likely to start for Muntari and what would that mean for them? What formation are they likely to employ? I've heard that their center backs are a weakness. True? Thanks in advance for any insight.

[obie]

That's not true. A US win or draw gives Italy the group with a draw.

It's really a very weird situation. If the US goes up early, ITA and CZE become very, very content with a draw.The Czechs will not be content with a 2nd-round match against Brazil. If ITA goes up early, GHA becomes content with a draw. This, on the other hand, may be true. Ghana could take the opinion that they do not care who they play next, as long as they're still playing. But if the group 1st place is out there for them, it'll be hard to suppress the desire to go after it.

The only time that the Czechs will be OK with second place is possibly after the 75th minute or so, when a late Italy goal would take them out entirely. The Italians will never be content with 2nd place in this group, so they'll keep strikers on the field the whole game.

[flyerhawk]

Any team that plays for a draw is foolish. Unless the other game gets out of hand I don't see any team trying to be that cautious. You have no way of knowing whether a score will hold and if the Italians play for a draw and then see Ghana swoop ahead of them it would be Lippi's head.

Italy has all the advantages going into their match. Baros, Koller, Ludvenc, and Ujfalusi are all out for the match. That means that the Czechs need to attack with their midfielders most likely driving the attack. That could work well for the Italian counter attack.

[dcuni_ted]

My idea is Ghana is going to try the same thing that they did against the Czech Republic. Try to suprise the U.S. with an early goal.

[dfb547490]

My perfect world: Italy scores early (before the US does). Eddie Johnson then scores before halftime and then runs at Bruce pointing at a calendar, asking why he was 10 days late in playing him. US then goes into half up 1-0 and so does ITA, meaning CZE and GHA know they have to score. Both ITA and USA catch the opponent pushing with a counter and end it.

ITA wins the group. USA gets Brazil.

That's almost perfect--perfect would be the above happening in our group then later that afternoon, Australia beats Croatia by 2 and a Japan team with nothing to lose stuns a lacksadaisical Brazil team, setting up a US-Australia matchup in the 2nd round :D

[MarioKempes]

My idea is Ghana is going to try the same thing that they did against the Czech Republic. Try to suprise the U.S. with an early goal.

Without Gyan and Muntari, this is going to be difficult for them. I feel this match will be 1-0, but I can't predict which team will score. This one truly could go either way.

[inswinger]

My idea is Ghana is going to try the same thing that they did against the Czech Republic. Try to suprise the U.S. with an early goal.

Gee, why didn't we think of that?!