Post Italy advancement Scenarios

[giffenbone]

then we advance no matter what.

Too bad that won't happen. But if we beat Ghana and Italy wins, we advance.

Other scenarios:

Italy/Czech tie:

Italy 5 pts
Czech 4 pts (+1 GD)

we would need to beat ghana by 4 to be even with the Czechs on goal diff. Then it comes down to goals scored.

Czechs beat Italy by 1:

Czech 6 pts
Italy 4 pts (+1 GD)

we would need to beat ghana by 4 to be even with the Italians on goal diff. Then it comes down to goals scored.

Czechs beat Italy by 2+:

Czech 6 pts
Italy 4 pts (0 GD at best)

we would need to beat Ghana by 3 to be even with the Italians on goal diff. Then it comes down to goals scored. Should the Czechs win by more than 2, then keep subtracting one off how many we need to beat Ghana by to be tied on goal diff.

[mrgifted]

Italy need only a tie to advance, and they know it. However, if they tie the Czechs, they will also advance unless Ghana beats us.

I foresee Italy playing the Czechs to a droll 0-0 tie and Czechs edging us out on goal differential (assuming we beat Ghana).

[mickhayafe]

with a tight group like this there are bound to be countless scenarios...please post your scenarios and thoughts

[ugaaccountant]

with a tight group like this there are bound to be countless scenarios...please post your scenarios and thoughts

nope that's all that can happen for us to move on.

[blech]

oops

[jacksup]

J.P. Dellacamera has been saying the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. He's an idiot, right? The first tiebreaker is goal differential, right? Anyone know for sure?

Not that matters, our only realistic shot is an Italy win and a U.S. win.

[toddk15]

I think every team plays for the win in the next game cause everyone wants to 1) advance and 2) advance and avoid being the 2nd place team that will probably have to play Brazil

[GalaxyOne]

J.P. Dellacamera has been saying the first tiebreaker is head-to-head. He's an idiot, right? The first tiebreaker is goal differential, right? Anyone know for sure?

Not that matters, our only realistic shot is an Italy win and a U.S. win.

No, head to head is the first tiebreaker, you ... oh nevermind.

[Knave]

Posted elsewhere too but it should be here also.

From the FIFA WC 06 regulations:

http://www.fifa.com/documents/static/regulations/FWC06_regulations_EN.pdf
The ranking of each team in each group will be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria,
their rankings will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between
the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the
teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the
teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the Organising Committee for the FIFA World
Cup™.
First tie-breaker is goal differential.

[Beast_Ed]

I wonder how we will beat Ghana. They look pretty darn good.

[unternehmen]

Other scenarios:

Italy/Czech tie:

Italy 5 pts
Czech 4 pts (+1 GD)

we would need to beat ghana by 4 to be even with the Czechs on goal diff. Then it comes down to goals scored.

Seeing that a 4:0 win over Ghana is unlikely, does anyone worry about the potential that Italy and Czech will play for a tie to see both Euro squads through? I believed it's happened before. (I think the '74 World Cup had a game with Germany and Austria lightly kicking the ball around for 90 minutes so both would advance.)

Thanks.

[blacksun]

I wonder how we will beat Ghana. They look pretty darn good.
They looked good against CR, but they looked pretty bad against Italy. Also, with there 2 goal scorers out, I think we have a good chance to win. My biggest concern is Italy playing for (and getting) a 0-0 result against CR.

[Sempuukyaku]

Had Bruce played for the win in the 75th minute like he should've have, we very well could've gotten the 3 points. All we'd need is a win against Ghana and we're through...regardless of how slim the margin. But this? Nope...especially with the way Ghana manhandled the Czechs today.

[unternehmen]

I think every team plays for the win in the next game cause everyone wants to 1) advance and 2) advance and avoid being the 2nd place team that will probably have to play Brazil

Todd, I missed your post when I added mine. Good point...avoiding Brazil would be a good incentive to top the group.

[LSUnited]

Seeing that a 4:0 win over Ghana is unlikely, does anyone worry about the potential that Italy and Czech will play for a tie to see both Euro squads through? I believed it's happened before. (I think the '74 World Cup had a game with Germany and Austria lightly kicking the ball around for 90 minutes so both would advance.)

Thanks.

No chance.

Italy might want to do it, but the Czechs won't.

The games are being played at the same time, so the Czechs still have to worry about a Ghana win.

[dcuni_ted]

Seeing that a 4:0 win over Ghana is unlikely, does anyone worry about the potential that Italy and Czech will play for a tie to see both Euro squads through? I believed it's happened before. (I think the '74 World Cup had a game with Germany and Austria lightly kicking the ball around for 90 minutes so both would advance.)

Thanks.

I doubt it. These teams are going to fight for first place. No one except the U.S. wants to finish second if they can avoid it.

[unternehmen]

The games are being played at the same time, so the Czechs still have to worry about a Ghana win.

Ahh, I see...I feel better about our ability to carve out the right result now.

[Ghost]

The Czechs won't play for the tie, since they could be knocked out with a Ghana win. The Italians could, but this is where having Brazil in the next group is a huge-onomous plus. If they tie and Ghana wins, they would face Brazil in the round of 16. So they'll play for the win for at least the first 80 minutes or so. Hopefully, around the 80th minute they'll be up a goal or two an hold on.

[Soccernethost]

The Czechs can't play for the tie because if Ghana wins, they're out.

And we are all huge Brazil fans tomorrow. So tht Italy at least thinks they need a win to avoid Brazil.

Scoring three goals goes a long way towards getting us to the next round. We most likely win and could make up ground on GD and goals scored if we need it.

[Jumbo]

All the Scenarios:
http://cbs.sportsline.com/worldcup/story/9512410

"U.S. needs win, help to get out of Group E June 17, 2006
CBS SportsLine.com wire reports

The United States tied Italy 1-1 on Saturday night in its second World Cup match. Italy leads Group E with four points, while the Czech Republic and Ghana each have three. The United States is last in the group with one point. On Thursday all four teams will play their last match of the first round. The United States faces Ghana, while at the same time, Italy plays the Czechs. Only the top two teams in the group will advance to the second round.

For the Americans to advance, they must defeat Ghana. In addition to beating Ghana, the U.S. team needs one of these scenarios to take place:

1. Italy defeats the Czech Republic.

2. Italy ties the Czech Republic 0-0 or 1-1 AND the United States beats Ghana by at least four goals.

3. Italy ties the Czech Republic 2-2 or with a higher score AND the United States beats Ghana by five or more goals.

4. Italy ties the Czech Republic 2-2 or with a higher score AND the United States beats Ghana by four goals AND the U.S. team scores at least three goals more than the Czechs do in their tie.

5. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is six or more.

6. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is five AND the U.S. team scores at least three goals more than the Italians do in their loss.

7. The Czech Republic beats Italy AND the total combined margin of victory for the Americans and Czechs is five AND the U.S. team scores exactly two more goals than the Italians do in their loss AND the Americans win a drawing of lots by FIFA.

AP NEWS
The Associated Press News Service

Copyright 2005-2006, The Associated Press, All Rights Reserved"