Thursday Group E preview, who plays for what, etc [R]

[Defenestration]

allright, here it is folks. THIS is why they play the last group games simultaneously. the question is, how do Italy and Czech Republic approach their match? do they just keep one eye on the scoreboard, and react to what's going on in the Ghana/US match? or do they just each play for the win? common sense tells you they each play for the 3 points, to avoid Brasil ... but with these two, you never know. This time around, if applicable, they WILL broker a deal for a draw (unlike the Koreans in 2002).

this is going to be VERY interesting.

[dark knight]

bump

[Hustletown]

In the words of Samuel L Jackson...

"Hold onto your butts."

I think both Italy and Czech go all out for the win given the performances they gave today. Very dissapointing by their standards, and they'll want the ship righted.

Czech faces a huge dilemma given their injury/card problem up top. They may go into the game against Italy with no "out and out" strikers available. Baros and Koller injured and Lokvenc (suspension- cards). On top of that, their best defender (Ujfalusi) is out. That's especially big given he plays his club ball at Fiorentina and would presumably have a very good idea of how to play the Italian attackers...especially Luca Toni. Italy can replace De Rossi, and their overall depth is far superior to the Czech team.

Czech can try and play for a draw if they choose, but that's not going to help them if Ghana takes care of business again (hopefully not). Also, I imagine it'd be pretty tough to bunker down without your defensive leader (Ujfalusi) available.

Obviously, we'll be going all out for the win and I think we are good enough to get it. I think EJ starts this time with McBride and Dempsey will start on the right once more.

Will be extremely interesting, but I like our chances.

[dfb547490]

Here's how I've figured it....someone correct me if I'm wrong here. Also this doesn't include the drawing of lots, only how teams can go thru based solely on on-field performance.

USA GOES THROUGH IF:
1. USA beats GHA and ITA beats CZE
2. USA beats GHA by 5 or more goals and ITA ties CZE
3. USA beats GHA by 4, ITA ties CZE, and USA scores at least 3 goals more than CZE
4. USA beats GHA and CZE beats ITA by a combined total of 6 or more goals
5. USA beats GHA and CZE beats ITA by a combined total of 5 goals, and USA scores at least 3 goals more than ITA


CZECH REPUBLIC GOES THRU IF:
1. CZE beats ITA
2. CZE ties ITA and USA ties GHA
3. CZE ties ITA and USA beats GHA by 3 or fewer goals
4. CZE ties ITA and USA beats GHA by 4 goals but does not score 3 goals more than CZE


ITALY GOES THRU IF:
1. ITA beats CZE
2. ITA ties CZE
3. ITA loses to CZE by 1 goal and USA ties GHA
4. ITA loses to CZE and USA beats GHA by a combined total of 4 or fewer goals
5. ITA loses to CZE and USA beats GHA by a combined total of 5 goals, but USA does not score 2 goals more than ITA


GHANA GOES THRU IF:
1. GHA beats USA
2. GHA ties USA and ITA beats CZE

[Owen Gohl]

Currently:

Italy - 4
Czech - 3
Ghana - 3
USA - 1

If we're trailing Ghana at halftime Thursday there is no way the other two will broker a draw because a Ghana win would give them 6 points and the group. In that case the Czechs would be out.

If we're ahead of Ghana they might try to broker a draw but to do so would assure that the Czechs would finish second and face Brazil. I doubt they'd want that.

A Czech win would give them 6 points and probably the group on goal difference. An Italian win gives them the group outright. Both teams have far more incentive to play for a win than to fix a draw.

CR is in bad shape due to injuries and cards. The psychological edge they had after Monday's win is gone. Italy has to be favored.

Ghana's best striker is out but the US has lost two starting defenders. Given today's win Ghana probably will be a slight favorite, but the US stands a chance if they show the same intensity Thursday that they did today.

[owian]

allright, here it is folks. THIS is why they play the last group games simultaneously. the question is, how do Italy and Czech Republic approach their match? do they just keep one eye on the scoreboard, and react to what's going on in the Ghana/US match? or do they just each play for the win? common sense tells you they each play for the 3 points, to avoid Brasil ... but with these two, you never know. This time around, if applicable, they WILL broker a deal for a draw (unlike the Koreans in 2002).

this is going to be VERY interesting.

Yeh only Italy is sure of going through on a draw, and they are not sure of going through number one. So they may look to counter they won't be going just for a draw. Plus its gonna be difficult and dangerous to try and change strategies based on scoreboard watching. And in reality unrealsitic a coach is not gonna be telling his players based on the results the only exception is maybe the last ten minutes or so the Czechs may or may not go for it based on the score but thats it. Even then a win over Italy ensures not playing Brazil a pretty big incentive. I expect to see pretty honest attempts by all the teams to win the match (even the Italians)

[Sachsen]

From the ussoccer.com blog:

Entry #83: June 17, 12:05 a.m. (6:05 p.m. ET)
Kasey Keller, Oguchi Onyewu, fitness coach Pierre Barrieu and Italy's Alessandro del Piero were waiting for the elevator down to the bus from the mixed zone (one side of Fritz-Walter-Stadion is litterally on the side of a steep hill/cliff and the busses pull in underneath the entire structure), and this was the gist of the conversation:

Barrieu to del Pierro: "Beat Czech Republic"
del Piero to the U.S. players as he nodded and cracked a smile: "Beat Ghana"

Friendly conversation ensued in which Onyewu and Keller told del Piero that the U.S. would gladly finish in second place so that Italy wouldn't have to face Brazil.

[blech]

i think the earlier posts sum up the key point -- italy can't just play for a tie because they would drop to 2nd if ghana wins (and thus have to play brazil) and czech republic can't play for a tie because they won't advance if ghana wins

they'll definitely be getting reports of the scores and strategies may evolve as the game proceeds, but i would expect the czechs in particular to play this one with a certain sense of urgency, as well as for a certain amount of pride given how they looked today. hopefully that opens the czechs up to the italian counter

[ExpatSwede]

This WC seems to have fewer tied games than previous WC's, and given the "moody" play of the Czechs and Italy I'd expect one of them to get the upper hand and win 2 - 0.

[JRNoblin]

Ghana's best striker is out but the US has lost two starting defenders.

Actually both goal scorers, Muntari and Gyan, are out for the U.S. match because of accumulated yellows.