How will Brazil influence group E?

[Raulduke]

With a match against Brazil looming for the 2nd place finisher of Group E, will the play of favorites Italy and Czech Rep. be effected?

Lippi has openly stated in a recent article that its very important for Italy to win the group to avoid meeting Brazil in the first game of the knockout stage.

Although Bruckner has not made the same statement, you would think he has the same sentiment.

Because Italy and the Czech Rep. expect to not only emerge from the group stage, but to vie for the title itself, I think there is much more pressure on them to win games in the group stage in order to avoid the Brazilians than there would normally be on the favorites of any particular group who simply enter group play with the goal of advancement.

In the case of the US and Ghana, they simply hope to make it out of the group stage. If you promised either of these teams a second place finish in the group and a meeting with Brazil, they would jump at it. I'm not so sure the Italians or Czechs would take such a bargain.

Will this pressing need to score goals and actually win games make both the Italians and Czechs more susceptible to the upset?

[Arid_Torpor]

Even more interesting...


What if Brazil is upset by Croatia in the opener? Then does everyone scramble for 2nd place? May Italy and Czech be playing to lose in the final match of the group stage?

[rifkin]

Will probably just make the final match between the Czechs and Italy much more entertaining. They could be in a position where a draw sees them both progress, but because neither wants to finish 2nd, one of the teams will press for the victory. Just like the SK - Port match last WC it might benefit the US or Ghana.

[uclacarlos]

I should hope not.

You can't *play* for opponents in the next round. Who the hell knows what will happen in another group. For some f-reaky reason, Japan has beaten Brazil 5 times and only lost twice (if I heard correctly on the news last night). So any coach who gambles so as to avoid Brazil is just plain stupid.

Oftentimes teams will play for a tie, and there's this unspoken agreement (like Portugal-SK in '02) to do just that so that both teams advance. But even that can backfire.

All I can say is that the US will NOT play those games. Concern #1 is getting out of the group. Let Group F work their stuff out. Who knows... maybe it might be a good thing to take on a team whose defense is anchored around a 33 and 36 (Brazil) year old players playing their 3rd game in 11 days, as opposed to Group E players playing their 3rd game in 12 days.

[bwach]

The group F games are scheduled for play after the completion of the group E games on the 22nd.

16:00 US v. Ghana
16:00 Italy v. Czech

21:00 Brazil v. Japan
21:00 Austrailia v. Croatia

Gonna have to play to win.

[Arid_Torpor]

But it's certainly possible for Brazil to have their spot clinched going into the final game. So what happens if Italy and Czech have both taken 6 points from the US and Ghana. If Brazil is sitting atop Group F, that will be one heck of a match. If Brazil is looking at a 2nd place finish, then what? Will they both play to lose, knowing that there's no way US or Ghana could overtake them. I think this is a bad way to play, but I could see it happening.

[Raulduke]

The unstated premise of the original question is that Brazil will win their group. I know there are no guarantees, but my feeling, especially based on Lippi's comments are that every coach in group E is assuming Brazil will win F.

[rizzuto123]

brazil will want to avoid italy the most.

[Polar Bear]

Will probably just make the final match between the Czechs and Italy much more entertaining. They could be in a position where a draw sees them both progress, but because neither wants to finish 2nd, one of the teams will press for the victory. Just like the SK - Port match last WC it might benefit the US or Ghana.
South Korea pressed for a victory only after Portugal was down to only 9 players.

[Polar Bear]

brazil will want to avoid italy the most.

I hope that you are not suggesting that Brazil is willing to tank a game so that they will finish 2nd to avoid playing Italy. Italy may do that to avoid Brazil, but I don't see Brazil doing that.

[Vivo Sohando]

Brazil will have zero effect on Group E.

Every team in group E is going into the World Cup trying to win the group. And the final match bewteen Italy and Czech Republic will not be a fight for first or second. At least one of the two will need some kind of result to ensure passage...guaranteed.

[Polar Bear]

But it's certainly possible for Brazil to have their spot clinched going into the final game. So what happens if Italy and Czech have both taken 6 points from the US and Ghana. If Brazil is sitting atop Group F, that will be one heck of a match. If Brazil is looking at a 2nd place finish, then what? Will they both play to lose, knowing that there's no way US or Ghana could overtake them. I think this is a bad way to play, but I could see it happening.

Even if Brazil has 6 points going into the last game, if Australia or Croatia have 3 points, Brazil will not have 1st clinched. If, however, Brazil has clinched as you suggest, I think either or both sides would be very likely to rest their better players and put out a reserve squad. I don't think that either team would deliberately give up the game. For example, I don't think that the goalie is going to intentionally let a ball into his net. The most probable thing would be a very ugly reserve filled match.

Another thing you have to remember is that one of the two teams has to win the group by tie breaker if they tie. Therefore, one of the teams knows that they will be 2nd if they don't win even if they don't lose. That gives them no incentive to win or lose the match as a draw would be much more respectable and achieve the same result.

Perhaps a more interesting question would be what would FIFA do if it was obvious that both teams were trying to throw the match? Could FIFA disqualify both teams? That would make this a WC that would never be forgotten.

[Polar Bear]

Brazil will have zero effect on Group E.

Every team in group E is going into the World Cup trying to win the group. And the final match bewteen Italy and Czech Republic will not be a fight for first or second. At least one of the two will need some kind of result to ensure passage...guaranteed.

I don't think that I would guarantee it, but I agree that the chances of the US and Ghana not even pulling out 1 draw out of the 4 games is small. It is even entirely possible that Italy or the Czech Republic will be in 3rd place going into the 3rd game and need to win just to advance.

[bwach]

South Korea pressed for a victory only after Portugal was down to only 9 players.


Maybe they felt they had a chance to eliminate one of the competition's favorites?

Every team but one has to be eliminated at some point or another. Might as well be in the round of 16 and it might as well by your team that does the eliminating.

[Arid_Torpor]

I know that the chances of neither the US or Ghana pulling out anything in the first four games is unlikely. I also know that no player is going to try to lose on purpose. But, as PB suggested, Italy and Czech had dominated their first two matches, and Brazil looked destined for 2nd (for instance, if Croatia had 6 points and Brazil only had three going into the final match), then the Czech-Italy game may consist of a lot of scrubs. On the other hand, if Brazil had six points and a tie behind them had left second place at 1 or 2 (and Italy and Czech were in the same situation), then that game may be one of the hardest fought of the first round.

I know this is very unlikely, but it's something to think about. Though, PB, I don't think either of these teams will go into the final match in 3rd. The worst two teams (on paper) play their final match against each other, so if anyone is going to be vaulting into second with a win in the final, you'd expect it to be US or Ghana. Now, I find it quite likely that Czech or Italy needs a win to stay ahead of the US or Ghana. In my predictions, I have Czech entering the final match with 6 points and the US and Italy with 3 apiece, so both teams need a result (if US would win and Czech loses, you'd have a three-way tie, wouldn't that be interesting?).

[mfw13]

I think it will cause to USA to be even more attack minded than people expect. People may be expecting that the USA will play conservatively against both the Czech and the Italians and hope for a draw, but knowing Bruce Arena, he's going to try to win the group and won't really care if we crash out in flames.

Also, the fact that Brazil lurks in the second round for the 2nd place finisher makes it highly unlikely that Italy and the Czechs will play for a draw in their final match.

[CLEATS]

I think it will cause to USA to be even more attack minded than people expect. People may be expecting that the USA will play conservatively against both the Czech and the Italians and hope for a draw, but knowing Bruce Arena, he's going to try to win the group and won't really care if we crash out in flames.

Also, the fact that Brazil lurks in the second round for the 2nd place finisher makes it highly unlikely that Italy and the Czechs will play for a draw in their final match.


I agree with you.Playing defensively will not get the US out of the group stage.

[GRBomber]

I fear the Czechs more than I fear the Italians.

[ports485]

I fear the Czechs more than I fear the Italians.

As a U.S. fan, so do I. Jan Koller is back from injury and in very fine goal scoring form. He should be one of the most feared strikers at the Cup. Totti's still coming back from injury, and neither Toni nor Gilardino were scoring freely in the second half of the season (though Inzaghi certainly was). You can tell which attack should be more feared.

[Marko72]

Even more interesting...


What if Brazil is upset by Croatia in the opener? Then does everyone scramble for 2nd place? May Italy and Czech be playing to lose in the final match of the group stage?

A distinct possibility. Croatia's got an extremely organized defense including one truly world class central defender, a hard-working midfield that gives no one rest, a pretty good finisher up top, they bring the heat with speed on both flanks, and they're very good in set-piece situations. Everybody mark this match on your calendars, Brazil-Croatia. You have to rate Brazil as favorites but this one's gonna be tight. My prediction is 1-0 Brazil in a nail-biter.