Unproven with very high public expectations

[TCompton]

Just read this, don't know if it's been posted anywhere here.
http://www.mlsnet.com/content/03/oped0226connolly.html

In the Mailbag Response, someone took exception (not really that harsh) to Connolly's remarks that United will have a better offense than the Revolution this year.

Connolly's response was along the line that he'd take the unproven United offensive options over the Rev's Twellman, Moore, and one of two players trying out with the team in Brazil.

While Connolly is no more an expert on the game than the Fire's Columnist Kenny Stern (or any one of us for that matter), this makes me wonder... While columnist are riding the "unproven" and "the number of changes" excuses for DC, I'm beginning to get the impression that while they ARE "unproven" as a team, if they don't produce this year, it will be a considered a huge failure... considering the talent on the team... which unfortuantely is common in DC (Redskin's and Capitals)

I have a feeling that this season will shape the future of our club and will either re-establish United as a premier MLS club or confirm what many MetroFans are dying to hear... that United of the 90's was a fluke team in a young league and are no better than MetroStars.

With that being said... I'm like a kid on Christmas Eve... and if this is to be our challenge year, I say...

BRING IT ON!

[Th4119]

I know I'm being nitpicky, but the Caps are 1st in their (albeit weaker) division, under a new coach. They also are on the upswing after a very slow start to the year.

[DigitalTron]

I don't know that I buy the "unproven" schtick. Earnie Stewart is extremely proven both in international competition and in a comperable league to MLS. He'll score. Santino hasn't been a big scorer, but he's proven himself capable when healthy.

Eskandarian has proven himself in college and the youth nats level, and while it's not MLS caliber, his skills translate very well. His strengths are creating space for a shot, and taking very quick, hard and accurate shots. He's not getting by on athletic ability, tactical acumen, or taking advantage of poor defending.

Dema Kovalenko and Hristo Stoichkov are proven MLS scorers. Olsen was injured, but he's a proven offensive contributor and he's now healthy ... we think. Convey has scored more each year, and looks to also contribute. Nelsen scored well despite being given very few chances last season. I think we can count on a similar goal total this season, and certainly more than Richie Williams produced. Petke has scored in MLS. Ivanov looks to have some ability there as well, although I have no idea how he did previously.

So, I do think we have "proven" scorers. The only real questions I have are 1) how long until they gell as a unit, and 2) how many injuries will we sustain this season? If those two are answered favorably, we should score just fine.

-Tron

[Sundevil9]

Yes, if the team comes out and falls on it's face we'll be disappointed.

Heck, we were disappointed the last three years, and the talent level is much higher now.

But here are the positives. Large quantities of players have been added to the roster over the past three seasons, but this year's group is the first that are bona fide experienced players. Stewart, Ivanov, Petke, and Dema are far better additions than say.....Lisi, Mapp, Denton, and a handfull of other kids. (Sure these guys may develop into something later, but this is about how a player can contribute today).

The question for United is how they work/produce as a team. And I agree with Tron's statements about gelling time, and injuries ( or more generally, with various national team call ups -- team depth).

[JoeW]

1. DCU fans ALWAYS have high expectations for our team. That's who we are and the standards of this organization (though they have slipped a bit the past 3 years).

2. Look at Connelly's comments in context. NE could be a fine team. I have tremendous respect for Nicol their coach. And, that said, here's a plausible take of their season: lost more games than they won but got hot at the right moment, played tight defense and an opportunistic counter scheme in the worst division in MLS. To put it another way, if DCU doesn't stomp on the SoS at the end of the season, NE doesn't make the playoffs. As for the talent they're auditioning in Brazil, they may get a real find. But the last word out of their camp is that neither of the guys they were looking at (Uribe and Buhlmann) are likely to stay with the team. Colorado is playing Mastroeni (a force in MLS the past 2 years and a National team star) and Grimindi (a fine player in the Premiership and national team pedigree) and the talk is they may not generate enough opportunities in the center of the pitch. How do Daniel Hernandez and Cullen compare to those two? I'm not slamming the Revs here, only pointing out that you can make a case that they'll content for the Rothenberg cup or that they're a team with major holes and little depth.

As for DCU, Tron hit it right on the head: will the pieces mesh/gell and what about depth issues (b/c of injuries and callups--which will be a huge factor for us this year). And we can't answer those questions until the guys start competing AND we see what happens with the youth WC or Confed Cup rosters.

Last thought...if you read Connelly's article, it's really talking more from a fan's perspective. As a coach, you can understand why many people wouldn't want Stoichkov: cap issues, aging, injury prone, can't go all out for 90 minutes. But as a spectator, of course you'd like to see what magic he can create. Putting Stewart, Etcheverry, Stoichkov on the same pitch has got to intrigue some people and make them curious (even if it rarely happens.)

[dcuinvermont]

If there's one thing we learned in MLS the past few years is that the headquarters has made parity happen. Nobody can judge the quality of a team this year solely based on their performance last year (except possibly LA) because all of the competition changes so much, each team changes so much, and the chemestry of each team can vary substantially. It's not like the EPL, Spain, etc. So all of the analysts are just speculating.
Given that, it seems very reasonable to expect that DC will be in the top half of MLS sides this year and you can argue either way about NE. I do think that Twellman is going to have a much tougher time this year. Adding Joe-Max will take some pressure off, but I think defenses were starting to figure out how to deal with Twellman at the end of the season last year and I think this will carry over.

[TCompton]

Originally posted by Thamlin19
...but the Caps are 1st in their (albeit weaker) division, under a new coach.

True, I was thinking more of last season, but they are bringing it together now... (then again, I'm a Flyers fan, so who cares about "making" the playoffs... my team sucks when they get there)

Originally posted by DigitalTron ...Earnie Stewart is extremely proven both in international competition...
...Santino hasn't been a big scorer, but he's proven himself capable...
...Eskandarian has proven himself in college...
...Dema Kovalenko and Hristo Stoichkov are proven MLS scorers. Olsen was injured, but he's a proven offensive contributor...

I completely agree that our players have proven themselves capable and tried to captivate that by saying they are "unproven" as a team.

I just think that this year has much more riding on it than any of the last 4 years. I don't know what would happen if we fail, but for DC United to "stand and be counted" they HAVE to do it this year. There can be NO failure.

Originally posted by JoeW
1. DCU fans ALWAYS have high expectations for our team. That's who we are and the standards of this organization (though they have slipped a bit the past 3 years).

...As we should... my personal expectations is that if we don't make it to the championship game, we didn't have a successful season. Until the playoff system changes so that only the top 2 teams in each division make it in, making the playoffs won't mean a whole lot. I want those non-existant soccer fans who only watch the championship game (because it's on ABC or whatever) to see DCU over and over again.

anyway... back to work

[Serie Zed]

Originally posted by DigitalTron
I don't know that I buy the "unproven" schtick. Earnie Stewart is extremely proven both in international competition and in a comperable league to MLS. He'll score.

Sure he'll score. The question is will he score enough to make a difference. One? Ten? Twenty?

[ursula]

Interesting thoughts here. Here's my take:

Start with the Revs. It's important to see that they scored more goals in the season then a whole bunch of teams who on paper had more stars on offense.

The Revs scored more than a C-bus team with McBride, Cunningham, Washington, Buddle, Maisoneuve, the Rookie of the year Martino, West, and Warzycha.

The Revs scored more than the Burn team that had Kreis, Vaca, Martinez, Broome, Johnson, Cerritos, Parjeda, Deering, Zarco.

The Revs scored more thqan that e-Quake team of Donovan, Graziani, DeRosario, Lagos, Russell, Mulrooney, Eklund, and Barrett and Conrad (those two great fantasy league defenders).

I could go on and on but you get the point. We fans get caught up in the names. (Not just fans- take a look at Jeff Bradley's predictions.) But it's not individuals that score goals. Even on LA that's true. Defenses are too organized to allow any goals scored except by exceptional team play first. And through that team play exceptional talent will shine, but not vice versa.

But just as important to having a good basic offensive system is having a good basic defensive system. Scoring lots of goals is also dependent on the team's defense making the opportunities that the offense can exploit, which is where NE's offense came from last year.

So what will happen this year? Should we just hand the team scoring crown to NE? Well, no. Subtle things change in team chemistry. Injuries happen. New players get added that don't always help the team (and players get cut too.) The fact is very few teams maintain their offense from one season to the next. NE in particular has a difficult feat this season IMO if other teams wise up to Nicol's counterattack strategy, but that remains to be done and until that happens one would have to rate their offense as better than say C-bus' as weird as that may seem.

United's offense is in flux. As a whole it's unproven because even though we do have some veterans like Stewart now these guys haven't yet played the season using Hudson's offensive and defensive philosophies. So to find some guidance in making predictions, one has to look at what other Hudson-lead teams have done. The only other time that Ray has had a team for a second year (which allowed for him to get a bunch of players he wanted), the 2001 Fusion, the offense rocked. This is a very good sign.

Ultimately I think when most people make predictions on DCU this year it all comes down to if they think Hudson's coaching abilities are sound or not even if they don't mention Ray by name. Were the '01 Fusion a fluke? Or does Ray actually know a thing or two?

The same is true in predicting the Revs this year. How good is Nicol really? Can they really generate THAT many goals again given that the league has had an offseason to adjust to him? Speaking only for myself, I have more confidence in what Nicol and Hudson can do than in Andrulis or Jeffries or Yallop or Gansler or Hankinson. Sarachan is very much an unknown. Only Braldey and Sigi rate higher and I'm not as positive as many here on how good Bradley actually is.

[subbuteo]

Originally posted by TCompton
Just read this, don't know if it's been posted anywhere here.
http://www.mlsnet.com/content/03/oped0226connolly.html

...I have a feeling that this season will shape the future of our club and will either re-establish United as a premier MLS club or confirm what many MetroFans are dying to hear... that United of the 90's was a fluke team in a young league and are no better than MetroStars.
...

United were so fluky that the MetroStars STILL have won....NOTHING.

[DigitalTron]

Just think about this for a minute. 6 Points (2 victories) separated the best from the worst in the East. There were several games that could have easily gone the other way, such as our first away game against LA where we went ahead late after being down to 10 men. A borderline foul goes uncalled on Ruiz, he ties it up forcing overtime, they win in OT. That's just one game. There were others. My point is, that the teams were extremely close last season. Let's look at what has changed on a positional basis.

DC United:
IN........................................OUT
Earnie Stewart.......................Jaime Moreno
Alecko Eskandarian.................Henry Zambrano
Hristo Stoichkov.....................Abdul Thompson Conteh
Dema Kovalenko.....................Lazo Alavanja
Ryan Nelsen...........................Richie Williams
Ben Olsen..............................Petter Villegas
Galin Ivanov...........................Eddie Pope
Mike Petke.............................Ryan Nelsen

NE Revolution:
IN.........................................OUT
Joe-Max Moore........................Wolde Harris
Wolde Harris............................Ian Fuller
(Buhlman?)..............................Winston Griffiths

Columbus Crew:
IN..........................................OUT
Frankie Hejduk..........................Eric Denton
Diego Walsh.............................John Wilmar Perez

NY/NJ Metrostars:
IN..........................................OUT
Jaime Moreno...........................Rodrigo Faria
Mike Magee..............................Mamadou Diallo
(Mario/Garnero?).......................Andy Williams
Richie Williams..........................Moore
Eddie Pope...............................Mike Petke
(Dillon Sheppard?).....................Brad Davis
Ricardo Clark............................Mark Lisi

Chicago Fire:
IN............................................OUT
Rodrigo Faria..............................Josh Wolff
Kelly Gray..................................Piotr Nowak
Justin Mapp................................Dema Kovalenko
Nate Jaqua.................................Hristo Stoichkov

I don't know, but of all of these teams it seems like DC United gained a lot of ground, probably more than 6 points. And let's be honest, Moreno and Santino were a decent offense when paired together, but each was hurt for most of the season. So getting Santino back to full health is like adding him in place of Eliseo and Curtis. I listed Olsen in for Villegas because realistically, Olsen played very little of last season and even then he was woefully unfit and un-sharp. Dema for Lazo? That's got to be worth 3 points right there. A healthy Ben Olsen for Villegas ... we're much improved.

-Tron

[tmas]

Originally posted by Thamlin19
I know I'm being nitpicky, but the Caps are 1st in their (albeit weaker) division, under a new coach. They also are on the upswing after a very slow start to the year.

the slow start happens all the time and know bondra is starting to get that feeling back



sorry strayed a bit.....

[sormun]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by ursula
[B]Interesting thoughts here. Here's my take:
.................................................................

So what will happen this year? Should we just hand the team scoring crown to NE? Well, no. Subtle things change in team chemistry. ........

United's offense is in flux. As a whole it's unproven because even though we do have some veterans like Stewart now these guys haven't yet played the season using Hudson's offensive and defensive philosophies. So to find some guidance in making predictions, one has to look at what other Hudson-lead teams have done. The only other time that Ray has had a team for a second year (which allowed for him to get a bunch of players he wanted), the 2001 Fusion, the offense rocked. This is a very good sign.

Ultimately I think when most people make predictions on DCU this year it all comes down to if they think Hudson's coaching abilities are sound or not even if they don't mention Ray by name. Were the '01 Fusion a fluke? Or does Ray actually know a thing or two?
...................................................................



What it is gonna happen next season in MLS ??? Has DCU the game to become a "power house" in MLS again ??? Those are very interesting questions and deserve a whole dedicated thread !!! The first question is a "way" too complicated. I will try to say a few words about the second :

It is true, the quality of the players on the team give the "basic level" of performance. Having said that, the last year DCU team, IMHO, had a low level of quality players !! I know a lot of you will argue the oposite but, think again about the individual players' performance and record. Let's say the midfield : Ech, Convey, Alegria,Lazo, Mc Kinley, Williams, Villegas .... low quality players. This year : Ech, Convey, Olsen,Dema,Stewart,Nelsen ...better.Unfortunately, in soccer, player's quality is the "basic" level. From this "basic" level UP, it is the "art and science" of the coach to built performance !!

Can Ray delivre at this point a higher performance ?? Taking into account that the other teams in MLS have improved their "basic" level.
Well, here is my take on this one :First, Ray has a painfull job in deciding the main question :"With Ech or without Ech" ?? IMHO, he should't be resigned by the league, his past year level of performance was awful. Somehow, the league impose Ray another year with Ech. Soo, at the very begining, Ech will try realy hard to stay a starter !!! I think, this is gonna be a good think, wich will bring to our ofense a "spark" badly needed.The question will be: how long Ech will last on the field at the acctual level of competition and how much better the team will become without Ech ?? My answer to this question is : The team will play better without Ech, faster, they will be able to increase the level of pressure in the midfield without Ech on the team. Despite the fact that Ech' spark playing is gonna be missed the team will improve the overall performance !!

The other big question is the "main strategy" Ray is gonna play. Here is Ray's "dilema" !! He likes the "flow ofensive team" ( see the Fusion team of 2001). In other words, an ofensive team with a midfield pressing for "turnovers" whereby the defense plays at the midline. But, on paper, this 2003 DCU team has an very strong defense and an "unproven" mid and forwards. Soo, the question is : what will be better the "strategy" playing in the main strenth of the team, meaning "defense and counter" or to jump forward in "ofense at all costs" relying, again,on our good defense to clear the oponent's "counters" ??
In other words, what is gonna be more appropiate strategy,at the begining, "defense and counter" or
" ofense at all costs" ??? It seems logic, at the begining, to play in the team strenth " defense and counter" untill the ofense will prove strong enough to be worth changing the strategy.

I personally favor, both "strategies". Frankly, I think both are valuable strategies, depending on the oponent's team and "home versus away games". Soo, I guess, the "pre-games" will answer the question !!!