statistics

[SSfan]

lets do some math :D

lets us go with generally agreed upon probabilities to see who will win group d

iran vs mexico (stats 30%- 70%)
-on anormal day mexico should be able to beat iran. However the gulf is not such that a few lucky breaks will help iran acheive a result, so with that in mind the chance of mexico getting 3 points is 70% (IMHO)

portugal vs angola (stats 70%- 30%)

- Normally I would give potugal a bigger chance, however i have to say that because o the extra motivation angola could pull an upset


portugal vs Iran (stats 80% - 20 %)

- Here i have to say Iran will need a great game to get any result, meaning iran must overachieve and portugal must have a bad day

mexico vs angola (stats 90% - 10%)

- I think mexico style of play will really hurt the angolans, but i give them the 10 % because of the off chance that they having gotten a result against portugal and come with confidense

mexico vs portugal (stats 40%- 60%)

- here the game could go either way, however with portugal having some game breakers like figo and deco i must give the edge to portugal

iran - angola (stats 70%- 30%)

- also here I think iran's style of play is not suitable for angola + iran does well against african teams

so add up the percentages

Portugal= 70% + 80% + 60% /3= 70%

Mexico= 40% + 90% + 70% /3= 67%

Iran = 70% + 20% + 30% /3= 40%

Angola = 30% + 10% + 30% /3= 23%

So in conclusion I think that mexico and portugal have about the same chance to top the group with iran having an outside chance and angola needing some extraordinary

p.s I know i did not take into consideration possibilties of ties but my math is not that good :p

[NachoNation]

lets do some math :D

lets us go with generally agreed upon probabilities to see who will win group d

iran vs mexico (stats 30%- 70%)
-on anormal day mexico should be able to beat iran. However the gulf is not such that a few lucky breaks will help iran acheive a result, so with that in mind the chance of mexico getting 3 points is 70% (IMHO)

portugal vs angola (stats 70%- 30%)

- Normally I would give potugal a bigger chance, however i have to say that because o the extra motivation angola could pull an upset


portugal vs Iran (stats 80% - 20 %)

- Here i have to say Iran will need a great game to get any result, meaning iran must overachieve and portugal must have a bad day

mexico vs angola (stats 90% - 10%)

- I think mexico style of play will really hurt the angolans, but i give them the 10 % because of the off chance that they having gotten a result against portugal and come with confidense

mexico vs portugal (stats 40%- 60%)

- here the game could go either way, however with portugal having some game breakers like figo and deco i must give the edge to portugal

iran - angola (stats 70%- 30%)

- also here I think iran's style of play is not suitable for angola + iran does well against african teams

so add up the percentages

Portugal= 70% + 80% + 60% /3= 70%

Mexico= 40% + 90% + 70% /3= 67%

Iran = 70% + 20% + 30% /3= 40%

Angola = 30% + 10% + 30% /3= 23%

So in conclusion I think that mexico and portugal have about the same chance to top the group with iran having an outside chance and angola needing some extraordinary

p.s I know i did not take into consideration possibilties of ties but my math is not that good :p

Well, I have to agree with most of what you posted, but where did you get those numbers?

Did you pull them out of your ass?

If they are your percentages, show more concrete proof as to why that is.

You've basically posted your opinion and nothing more. You just chose to put it in percentage terms. It's of no more value than any other jack ass who's posted here.

[SSfan]

lol nacho you really are harsh bro :eek:

if you must know i got the percentages from the book maker odds + some of my own input

[NachoNation]

lol nacho you really are harsh bro :eek:

if you must know i got the percentages from the book maker odds + some of my own input
Seeing as your a Bayern Munich fan....

Let me know what you really think of these guys that the Iranians are touting so much.

Im curious.

[SSfan]

karimi = above average, could change the game if it his day but can also dissapear, also something most dont know about him is that he has good def capability

kia = more consistant but does not have the game changing talent of karimi, great crosser of the ball

the other two (hashemian and zandi) are average bundesliga players

[Utopial]

if u really care about working this out properly:

Expected points for each team = sum for all matches (probability of draw * 1 + probability of a win *3)

e.g. just say portugal has a 60% chance of winning vs angola and iran and a 20% chance of drawing with them, along with a 40% chance of beating mexico and 40% of drawing them:

expected portugal points = (0.2*1 + 0.6*3) + (0.2*1 + 0.6*3) + (0.4*1 + 0.4*3) = 5.6

do the same for all teams and compare. u can also incorporate probability distributions into this and then get a distribution of their expected points and compare the 4 distributions. this is what companies do to analyse the profitability of different business plans or ideas but u replace the points with $. called dynamic financial analysis

[SFC]

Portugal - Angola

95% Portugal wins
4,5% Portugal draws
0,3% The game is stopped due to bad weather conditions
0,1% The game is stopped due to violence in the stands by Angola fans
0,1% Portugal chokes.

Portugal - Iran

70% Portugal wins
15% Portugal draws
10% The game is stopped due to terrorist suicide bombings
0,3% The game is stopped due to bad weather conditions
0,1% The game is stopped due to violence in the stands by Iran fans
0,1% Portugal chokes

Portugal - Mexico

50-50

[Juanbuix]

Portugal and Mexico will be fighting for the 1st spot!

[Joelzinho]

As long as everyone is making up statistics....Ronaldo scores on 90 percent of his shots:rolleyes:

[portugal489]

Portugal - Angola

95% Portugal wins
4,5% Portugal draws
0,3% The game is stopped due to bad weather conditions
0,1% The game is stopped due to violence in the stands by Angola fans
0,1% Portugal chokes.

Portugal - Iran

70% Portugal wins
15% Portugal draws
10% The game is stopped due to terrorist suicide bombings
0,3% The game is stopped due to bad weather conditions
0,1% The game is stopped due to violence in the stands by Iran fans
0,1% Portugal chokes

Portugal - Mexico

50-50


There was really no need to mention suicide bombings. I am portuguese and i must say i am ashamed of my fellow countrymen for saying something so ignorant.

[Joelzinho]

There was really no need to mention suicide bombings. I am portuguese and i must say i am ashamed of my fellow countrymen for saying something so ignorant.

I shake my head along woth Mr.Portugal489...