Qualification system needs changing.

[photar74]

I have, at long last, come to the conclusion that WC qualifying doesn't need to be rethought.

Instead, the WC needs to be expanded to 48 teams, starting in 2014.

Check out the "FIFA and Tournaments" board for my complete proposal.

[photar74]

The problem with any qualification system is that there are nine teams in CONCACAF that tower over the other 26: Costa Rica, Mexico, USA, Honduras, Jamaica, T & T, Guatemala, El Salvador and Canada. In the last two qualfying campagins, these nine teams went a combined 48-4-2 (W-D-L) when playing the other 26 CONCACAF nations (Panama had one of the wins and three of the draws, Barbados had one win and Cuba one draw). These are the only nine teams with a realistic chance of qualifying for the WC Finals. Since it is unfortunately not possible to have a nine team finals, any qualification system, even an octagonal, is going to leave one of these teams home two full years before the WC Finals.

However, having an octagonal does at least reduce the number of quality sides watching from home from three to only one. Also, a look at the previous two campaigns reveals that each time one of the nine quality CONCACAF sides was significantly worse than the other eght (T & T in 1998, Canada in 2002). These teams would have been left out of an octagonal (had there been one) each of the last two times, and justice would have been served.

Also, while those nine teams tower over the rest (with Panama a distant 10th), there are also large gaps between those nine. UISA, Mexico and Costa Rica have demonstrated superiority over the otehr six, while Honduras and Jamaica are noticeably better than T & T, El Salvador, Canada and Guatemala.

[photar74]

So, even though it would extend the qualification campaign by a few matches for a few teams, here is a revised version of an octagonal that I believe would be the most fair, and come closest to making certain that the 3.5 best CONCACAF teams qualify for the WC Finals:

Prelims (Nov. 2003-Jan 2004). Home-away knockout, winner of each pool advances to semifinals:

Pool 1: Panama, BVI, Dominica, T & C, Montserrat
Pool 2: Cuba, Belize, Bermuda, USVI
Pool 3: St. V & G, Surinam, Caymans, Puerto Rico
Pool 4: Haiti, Grenada, Guyana, Anguilla
Pool 5: A & B, St. Lucia, Bahamas, Nicaragua
Pool 6: St. K & N, Dom Rep., Neth. Ant., Aruba

Semifinals (March 2004-June 2004). Home-away round robin, top two from each group advance to the octagonal:

Group A: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Canada, prelim 6
Group B: Mexico, Guatemala, Barbados, prelim 5
Group C: USA, T & T, prelim 1, prelim 4
Group D: Honduras, Jamaica, prelim 2, prelim 3

Octagonal Final (September 2004-November 2005). Home-away round robin, top three advance to WC Finals, 4th place advance to playoff.

Yeah, its longer than the current system, but only for five teams (USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Jamaica and Canada). However, it also takes place over a longer period of time, thus not increasing fixture crowding. It even leaves a time gap for a couple of CONCACAF teams to take part in Copa America.

Of course, it would only ever work if the Gold Cup took place once every four years, but so what? The Gold Cup should be once every four years (in the summer the year after the WC), and it should have 16 teams. Turning the Gold Cup into a real CONCACAF championship seems like a small price to pay for making the WCQ system fair and thorough.

So let's get that extra 0.5, and let's do this thing.

[SJJ]

A six-game semi-final, THEN a 14-game final? Yeesh.

[photar74]

Originally posted by SJJ
A six-game semi-final, THEN a 14-game final? Yeesh.

Yeah, just start it earlier.

It is in the interest of the entire confed for the best 3.5 teams to qualify out of the region. In order to assure this, we need a slightly longer qualifying round that avoids semifinal groups of death, and seminfinal cake walks.

[PSUdude]

WHy not have the Gold Cup as the qualifier for the WC.....BUT have ALL teams qualify into the Gold Cup

[sidspaceman]

Were would the Gold Cup be played? It would seem to be vastly unfair to the federations that were not hosting the Gold Cup. Who would get the attendence money or concessions?

[DoyleG]

Originally posted by PSUdude
WHy not have the Gold Cup as the qualifier for the WC.....BUT have ALL teams qualify into the Gold Cup

Teams already do qualiy for the Gold Cup. Central American teams go through the UNCAF tournament. The Caribean teasm gotrhough the Copa Caribe.

[1974-2006]

Actually I think he means ALL the teams would have to qualify including Canada, Mexico and the US witch is not how it's done currently.
I'm not sure I totally agree with this idea though, Concacaf teams need to play as many competitive internationals as possible if they are to
remain at the level they are playing now. I sincerely think that having to qualify for the world cup, the Gold and playing in the finals help
the Concacaf play at the level they did during the Wold cup. And if the smaller teams are to ever improve I don't see how the can achieve
that if they don't get to play as many competitive games as possible.

[beineke]

Originally posted by photar74

It is in the interest of the entire confed for the best 3.5 teams to qualify out of the region. In order to assure this, we need a slightly longer qualifying round that avoids semifinal groups of death, and seminfinal cake walks.

I'm a bit puzzled. By your own argument, there are only 9 contending teams in Concacaf. At the same time, you put 16 teams into the semifinals and claim there won't be cakewalks. That doesn't jibe.

[PSUdude]

ALL teams need more seasoning, hence there should be more qualifiers, with all teams involved....And I suggest using the Gold cup so:
-Gets rid of the outsiders
-makes it worth something
-makes it less like a two-bit operation (though it's almost inpossible to prove CONCACAF isn't one)