What's Ahmadinejad's Game?

[Anthony]

I mean, this guy seems like he is asking the Israelis or US to attack him. What is the game?

Here are some possibilities I see:

1. Oil -- I wonder if this rhetoric is really just meant to roil the oil markets. After all, Iran has to love the price per barrel these days.

2. The Hidden Iman/Mahdi -- He has made some statements which sould like he believes the Hidden Iman/Mahdi is soon to return, and he is trying to hasten it.

3. Inter-Moslem rivalries -- One way to look at the events of the past 25 years is that it is a war within Islam among lots of parties. The Iranian president represents the extreme Shia faction. The Qubtist faction melts into the Wahhabist faction, and they are represented by folks like Hamas, al-Qeada and Islamic Jihad (basically, they are offshoots of the Moslem Brotherhood). They are trying (and are failing) to unify the Moslems and restore the Calphiate under Sunni leadership. Is this all Iran's attempt to unify Moslems under a Shia Caliphate by provoking nuclear war with the West?

[Matt in the Hat]

He's trying to gain populatity through nationalism. That's all. Nothing else.

[Rostam]

I mean, this guy seems like he is asking the Israelis or US to attack him. What is the game?

3. Inter-Moslem rivalries -- One way to look at the events of the past 25 years is that it is a war within Islam among lots of parties. The Iranian president represents the extreme Shia faction. The Qubtist faction melts into the Wahhabist faction, and they are represented by folks like Hamas, al-Qeada and Islamic Jihad (basically, they are offshoots of the Moslem Brotherhood). They are trying (and are failing) to unify the Moslems and restore the Calphiate under Sunni leadership. Is this all Iran's attempt to unify Moslems under a Shia Caliphate by provoking nuclear war with the West?

You couldn't be any more wrong in all accounts on this one. Your thinking is so twisted and convoluted that makes it impossible to have a rational dialogue. I don't know how you combined so many elements into one to point at Ahmadinejad.

[Kamran]

try an Iranian news agency like www.farsnews.com or www.mehrnews.com then go to the English version.. read up the development inside Iran, you might get a taste of what is actually going on and how a government that couldn't do jack 10 years ago because of the isolation and sanctions is doing things that shows they are here to stay!

just to name a few things:

* Iran's oil profit has increased 300% to 400% and ppl actually starting to see this money in their lives something they didn’t see happening before!

* limiting "Basij"’s strength in cities.. while the Western media is running the "look at the Iranian police telling girls how to dress up" show.. this move is a very big step forward.. previously Basij was responsible for enforcing the Islamic dress code and related issues but through pressure form parliament they lost their power and now the only organization that enforces law in Iran is the police force.. the law is enforced controlled manners and mostly by female police forces so you don't see the unprofessional conduct of the Basij forces anymore.. they even came up with this cute fines and just like a traffic offense they stand there and fine you with a smile.. so you see scenes like this in Iran now:

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/060423/ids_photos_india_wl/ra1858664755.jpg

* Ahmadinejad wrote a letter to the officials to prepare the Azadi stadium so it can host women and families... something even Khatami couldn't do!

* taking care of the retired workers in the society which was unheard of in Iran in previous years..

you can find similar improvements going on in Iran everyday if you read the inside Iran news... evil or good the current government is playing its hand right and moving forward everyday not at all like a suicidal nation that Western media is trying to portray.. one thing that facilitates all these is the standoff with West that keeps the oil expensive!

[BenReilly]

He's trying to gain populatity through nationalism. That's all. Nothing else.

I wish. Iranian nationalism doesn't worry me in the least.

[Matt in the Hat]

I wish. Iranian nationalism doesn't worry me in the least.
Then you shouldn't be worried.

[Kamran]

Then you shouldn't be worried.
don't tell me you didn't get the punch line? now Ben is gonna burn his intellectual degree in "SMACK TALK" :rolleyes:

[CrewDust]

Chinese checkers

[!Bob]

I mean, this guy seems like he is asking the Israelis or US to attack him. What is the game?

Here are some possibilities I see:

1. Oil -- I wonder if this rhetoric is really just meant to roil the oil markets. After all, Iran has to love the price per barrel these days.

2. The Hidden Iman/Mahdi -- He has made some statements which sould like he believes the Hidden Iman/Mahdi is soon to return, and he is trying to hasten it.

3. Inter-Moslem rivalries -- One way to look at the events of the past 25 years is that it is a war within Islam among lots of parties. The Iranian president represents the extreme Shia faction. The Qubtist faction melts into the Wahhabist faction, and they are represented by folks like Hamas, al-Qeada and Islamic Jihad (basically, they are offshoots of the Moslem Brotherhood). They are trying (and are failing) to unify the Moslems and restore the Calphiate under Sunni leadership. Is this all Iran's attempt to unify Moslems under a Shia Caliphate by provoking nuclear war with the West?
A few points. First off, as Rostam pointed out, the 3rd category must've been hiding is a deep dark crevice for it makes no sense. However, right now AN is being championed by many in the Arab countries because their own rulers have taken a line in many issues such as Israel that isn't what the majority believes in. But the powerful want to stay in power and the way to do it is to please "powers that be".

The second category is a lot more convoluted than most people realise and again, is complete crap.

The first one while the most valid, still doesn't give credance to the complexity of the issue.

Kami, I have to say, that was a very good post. Although I don't agree with all of AN's domestic policies, he has surprised me greatly!

Matt, your view is very much true and part of the bigger picture.

Ben, you never seem to surprise me with what you believe to be a witty side-remark which just makes you look a fool!

Finally, congrats to Arsenal! And Riquelme missing the penalty of all people...icing on the cake!

[Iranian Monitor]

I mean, this guy seems like he is asking the Israelis or US to attack him. What is the game?

No. Ahmadinejad is merely saying that the notion that "Israel" would attack Iran on its own is a joke. Perhaps a welcome one, since Israel doesn't really have the power to do much harm but can through such a course free Iran of certain imposed restrictions and enhance Iran's position otherwise. And he is saying that the US is not in a position to attack Iran without incurring such a cost that it would regret such a move.


Here are some possibilities I see:

1. Oil -- I wonder if this rhetoric is really just meant to roil the oil markets. After all, Iran has to love the price per barrel these days.

2. The Hidden Iman/Mahdi -- He has made some statements which sould like he believes the Hidden Iman/Mahdi is soon to return, and he is trying to hasten it.

3. Inter-Moslem rivalries -- One way to look at the events of the past 25 years is that it is a war within Islam among lots of parties. The Iranian president represents the extreme Shia faction. The Qubtist faction melts into the Wahhabist faction, and they are represented by folks like Hamas, al-Qeada and Islamic Jihad (basically, they are offshoots of the Moslem Brotherhood). They are trying (and are failing) to unify the Moslems and restore the Calphiate under Sunni leadership. Is this all Iran's attempt to unify Moslems under a Shia Caliphate by provoking nuclear war with the West?

It would take me too long to make what you said coherent in terms of understanding Iranian politics or Ahmadinejad.

Iran is a historical power in its region, with geopolitical and security issues facing it similar to what was faced by NATO for instance during the Cold War. That will remain true particularly as long as Iran either chooses, or is forced to, be hostile to US/Israeli machinations in its neighborhood.

You should note that Iran maintains excellent relations with anti-American 'athiest' leaders in many former Soviet Republics (e.g. Belarus, Tajikistan, etc), as well a non religous leaders elsewhere (Castro, Chavez), while it has poor relations with many Islamic ones such as those inspired by Wahabi ideology. Iran's closest and most natural allies are, of course, the shia groups in the region, which look to Iran as their ideological guide.

Within this broader calculus, Iran also tries to find those points that can attract it a following in the region, looking to those issues that cause many in the Islamic world to be hostile or resentful of the US. The Arab-Israeli conflict plays a role in that regard, although more broadly speaking Iran looks to Israel as a hostile colonial base of power in the region propped up by the world hegemon, the US.

[Anthony]

On point 3, I did not make myslef clear. The question is, is what he doing more an issue of inter-Islamic politics than anything else. The Islamic world is not monolithic. The al-Qaeda inspired terrorist groups seem lately to be more successful in killing fellow Moslems than Jews and Crusaders.

The Islamic world, at least since the end of the Caliphate in 1923, has several "poles." As Guardian of the Shrines and thanks to their support of mosques and charities, the Saudi royal family has a certain influence, though they have dissipated much of that influence through corruptiuon. The Iranian religious establishment has a certain influence as it is the first "Islamic Republic" and, for the Shia at least through the presence of the Ayotollas [sp?]. Al-Qaeda has influence through the network of extremist Imans and their possible ties with groups like the Moslem Brotherhood.

Another point isthat the Arab and Islamic worlds (and yes, I know Iranians are not Arabs) for the past 60 years have tried several paths to better theirsituation. At first, they tried religous though secular moderizing king, of which Morocco and Jordan are probably the two major remaining (The Shah could fall in that category). Then it was various flavors of pan-Arabism, of which Nasserism was the most successful. Then Arab socialism (like Syria and Iraq) or Marxism (like Algeria), though they failed miserably.

So now we see the call of the Islamic Republics and a return to "pure" Islam. So you have this very confused civil war going in inside Islam. My question is whether Ahmadinejad is trying to tap into that current and provide a Shia alternative to the type of Islam preached by al-Qaeda or the Moslem Brotherhood or the more obxious of the Saudi Islamists.