Euro's perception of strength of USMNT

[eejit]

I have been checking out how good a chance people think the USMNT have of qualifying for the later stages of WC2006. I thought a good measure of this would be to look at the odds on Betfair betting exchange because for all the bravado and "tough" talk on these posting forums when it comes to putting money on the outcome you have to really believe it. Here are the odds I found to win group E

Italy +105
Czech Rep +225
USA +660
Ghana +1200

So it looks like people think there is a bit of a gap between the US and the Euro teams. I was reading on the posting forum of the website and some of the comments were not positive. This one is a typical post

"One of the things I am looking forward to the most is watching the Americans get their assess handed to them.

They have some posting forums on the internet and the few that take an interest in soccer (the rest seem to call it fagball and think it is played by women and wussies) actually think they have a good team."

One way or the other it looks as if some opinions will be have to altered this summer.

[Bruce S]

are you older than 12? Why does anyone really care? These kind of threads are like junior high.

[CincoDmayo]

Link to that that website? NOW!!

[The Big Ticket]

Who is this "Euro" you speak of and why should we care what he thinks?

[ty webb]

Well the betting odds are definately relevant. We all know the FIFA rankings are complete bullshite... We might be in the top 15, but not even close to the top 5.

I think the odds are a much better indicater. And, if you think they are wrong then you can profit from it. But, I don't see us winning the group either.

[jott]

Greece had only like 1000:1 odds to win Euro 2004. Anything's possible.

[jcsd]

This is what a US bookmaker is offering:

Italy: -105

Ghana: +1100

United States: +600

Cezech Republic: +220

Pretty simlair (I guess you mean Italy -105 rather than +105).

[jcsd]

Greece had only like 1000:1 odds to win Euro 2004. Anything's possible.

100-1 I think it was, which to be fair is about the same as they're offering for the USA at WC '06.

[Kernel KlinK]

Actually, the oddsmakers don't give the odds on who they think will win but rather on what they think the perception of the voters is. They may believe a certain team (A) is better but if they believe the public is going to put more money on team B they will alter the odds accordingly. Their goal is to get even amounts of money/payouts no matter who wins so THEY don't have to gamble. Thus, the long odds only indicate that the betting public is not putting their money on the US.

To be a good better, figure out that disparity and bet accordingly. This is similar to buying stocks. The price of the stock does not indicate the value of a company at a given time - -only the perceived value of the company.

Bet on the US. We're better than the public thinks - - and although our winning the world cup is slim, the payout is worth the risk.

[nobody]

Face it...if we get out of the first round, it will be considered an upset by any impartial observer.

Italy is a world giant and the Czech Republic was fantastic in qualifying and is currently ranked only behind Brazil by FIFA and has a stable of players we could only dream of right now.

We're a solid and improving team, but finishing ahead of either of these opponents will be far more challenging than finishing over Portugal last time.

[Zeppelin]

I have been checking out how good a chance people think the USMNT have of qualifying for the later stages of WC2006. I thought a good measure of this would be to look at the odds on Betfair betting exchange because for all the bravado and "tough" talk on these posting forums when it comes to putting money on the outcome you have to really believe it. Here are the odds I found to win group E

Italy +105
Czech Rep +225
USA +660
Ghana +1200

So it looks like people think there is a bit of a gap between the US and the Euro teams. I was reading on the posting forum of the website and some of the comments were not positive. This one is a typical post

"One of the things I am looking forward to the most is watching the Americans get their assess handed to them.

They have some posting forums on the internet and the few that take an interest in soccer (the rest seem to call it fagball and think it is played by women and wussies) actually think they have a good team."

One way or the other it looks as if some opinions will be have to altered this summer.


Aren't you the same guy who wrote a similar thread before the WC-2002 ? it was very similar only there were Portugal and Poland involved in it.

[jcsd]

Actually, the oddsmakers don't give the odds on who they think will win but rather on what they think the perception of the voters is. They may believe a certain team (A) is better but if they believe the public is going to put more money on team B they will alter the odds accordingly. Their goal is to get even amounts of money/payouts no matter who wins so THEY don't have to gamble. Thus, the long odds only indicate that the betting public is not putting their money on the US.

To be a good better, figure out that disparity and bet accordingly. This is similar to buying stocks. The price of the stock does not indicate the value of a company at a given time - -only the perceived value of the company.

Bet on the US. We're better than the public thinks - - and although our winning the world cup is slim, the payout is worth the risk.

Wrong, the spread adjusts the odds, but the price is nearly always primarily going to be a represntation of how highly a bookmaker rates a team than the betting especially for a bet like this when the betting is not going to be heavy).

The reason why people like looking at odds so much is that the bookmakers invest time and money intrying to predict the results and it's in their finaical interests to get it right (if the odds are too long the risk is losing money, too short and the risk is losing out to the competetion).

[Jabinho]

Aren't you the same guy who wrote a similar thread before the WC-2002 ? it was very similar only there were Portugal and Poland involved in it.
You can actually still google predictions by "experts" for WC 2002..
It's very entertaining..
Many even had England in the final.. Some Italy.. Few had Brazil..
I couldn't find any that had the USA getting out of the group stage though there may have been a few..

[USA2010?]

Face it...if we get out of the first round, it will be considered an upset by any impartial observer.

Italy is a world giant and the Czech Republic was fantastic in qualifying and is currently ranked only behind Brazil by FIFA and has a stable of players we could only dream of right now.

We're a solid and improving team, but finishing ahead of either of these opponents will be far more challenging than finishing over Portugal last time.

4 years ago there were some "pundits" who were picking Portugal to win it all. Figo was a recent FIFA POY and they had some great talent. We also had a home team in the group, along with Poland, not a slouch. This year's group may be a little tougher, but 4 years ago it was not easy.

A lot of people are calling this year's group a GOD, and this is simply because the US is that much better and we won't "surprise" anyone. If we beat Italy or the Czech Republic it will be an upset, but I don't think it will be the stunner Portugal was 4 years ago.

I remember watching the teams come out and thinking "There is no way we can hang with these guys. We're gonna get killed"....and then it was 3-0.

You just never know. Do I "expect" us to get out of the group? Of course not, but I will be on the edge of my seat like everyone else. It will be interesting to see how out 1st team does. I only hope JOB, Reyna, and McBride are healthy.

[USA2010?]

Bet on the US. We're better than the public thinks - - and although our winning the world cup is slim, the payout is worth the risk.

What makes you think that? The result and quality against Scotland, Poland, Germany, or Jamaica?

Sure, we're improving, but I'm starting to feel worse about getting out of a group with Italy, the Czech Republic, and Ghana.

[ty webb]

A lot of people are calling this year's group a GOD, and this is simply because the US is that much better and we won't "surprise" anyone. If we beat Italy or the Czech Republic it will be an upset, but I don't think it will be the stunner Portugal was 4 years ago.

I think beating Italy or the Czechs would also be a stunner. We are still not as good as these teams. Italy would be HUGE shock. They are highly favored and recently destroyed Germany.

Wins against Guat, Japan, Norway, Canada, Jamaica, etc... has not made the world think we are a very strong team. Wait, we tied Canada and recently tied Jamaica's USL All-star team.

[Sean_94]

I'm not familiar with betting, so I don't know what +600 means.
But it might be worth putting a few pounds on the U.S. and taking your chances.

[ty webb]

Bet on the US. We're better than the public thinks - - and although our winning the world cup is slim, the payout is worth the risk.

You are very brave.

I will be shocked if we get out of the group. If we do, we may see Brazil in the round of 16.

I am trying to imagine how we could do it... and I can't.

[Bluecat82]

..the Czech Republic was fantastic in qualifying...

I'd like to punch a hole in this myth right now.

The Czechs were less than spectacular in qualifying - they got hammered twice by Holland and split their matches with Romania.

Basically they got fat pounding the bejeebers out of Armenia, Macedonia, and Andorra, swept a decent Finland side, and then got a pair of 1-0 wins over Norway in the playoff to punch their ticket to Germany.

#2 in the world? Hardly.

They're good...they're very good...but they're not that good.

We can take 'em.

[Bluecat82]

I am trying to imagine how we could do it... and I can't.

I'll take that challenge...:)

Beat the Czech Republic
Draw with Italy
Beat Ghana

Win Group

Beat Croatia/Japan/Australia in Round of 16 (my bet..Japan)

Beat France in Quarters (France wins Group G, defeats Ukraine in Round of 16)

(from here, it gets tough, but anything's possible)

Defeat Holland in Semis (sorry bltleo, Germany loses to Holland the quarters)

Beat Brazil in final on PKs :D

(Keller does a backbreaker on Ronaldinho after saving his PK)

There...that wasn't so hard, was it? ;)