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Maximum Optimal
17 Apr 2006, 07:40 PM
The Bruce's quote about the World Cup being a young man's game is often repeated here. I also see comments about this cycle producing fewer young stars like Beasley and Donovan. So I thought it would be interesting to compare the age distribution of a hypothetical roster for this WC with the one from the last.

Beasley 20 Johnson 22
Donovan 20 Convey 23
Cherundolo 23 Dempsey 23
O'Brien 24 Onyewu 24
Wolff 25 Beasley 24
Mathis 25 Donovan 24
Mastroeni 25 Gibbs 26
Hejduk 27 Bocanegra 27
Lewis 28 Howard 27
Pope 28 Cherundolo 27
Berhalter 28 Albright 27
Reyna 28 Ching 28
McBride 30 O'Brien 28
Friedel 31 Olsen 29
Moore 31 Wolff 29
Sanneh 31 Mastroeni 29
Jones 32 Hejduk 31
Keller 32 Lewis 32
Stewart 33 Pope 32
Meola 33 Reyna 32
Regis 33 Hahnemann 34
Llamosa 33 McBride 34
Agoos 34 Keller 36

Some basic observations.

(1) The median age is 28 for both cycles. It could drop to 27 for this cycle if Spector, Noonan or Twellman beat out older players.
(2) We had 5 non-goalies age 32 or older in the last cycle. We will probably have 4 in this cycle.
(3) It will probably be a long time before we have a pair of 20 year olds like Donovan and Beasley, but the new young talent coming in this cycle is fairly impressive. If we can keep bringing in four young players of the caliber of Johnson, Convey, Dempsey, and Gooch every four years I'll be happy.
(4) Every player age 30 or younger from the last WC held up well enough physically to compete for a spot in this cycle, with the exception of Clint Mathis. McBride hanging around is especially impressive.
(5) As a corollary to point 4, I think the great majority of the guys age 29 and younger in this WC have a good chance of making the next one. Possible exceptions are the ones that already have a significant medical history: JOB, Olsen, Wolff.
(6) Being a magnificent physical speciman can't overcome Father Time (see Tony Sanneh).
(7) Some of the new players in this cycle aren't so young: Hahnemann, Ching, Olsen, Albright, Boca. In some instances they were injured in the runup for the last WC and couldn't make the case for inclusion on the team. In other cases, they have been late bloomers or have outlasted older competition. Roughly half of the new blood in this cycle are such players. The other half are players who were too young and inexperienced to be considered last time.

DiscoWarrior11
17 Apr 2006, 07:53 PM
Interesting observation.

Although it's been discussed here and there on bigsoccer, I wonder what our top players, 21 and under, are, besides Spector and Adu.

I forgot that Lewis was that old as well.

numerista
18 Apr 2006, 07:16 AM
Nice post ... when you lay things out that way, a couple of other patterns appear:

-- 5 of the 8 youngest players are African-Americans, as opposed to only 1 of the oldest 15.

-- 12 of the 18 oldest players are from either the Far West or New Jersey, as opposed to 0 of the youngest 5. This may suggest a broadening away from our traditional sources of talent.

Also, in case anyone is interested in a techie approach to projecting whether squad players will make it again next time ...
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339133

appoo
18 Apr 2006, 07:19 AM
Nice post ... when you lay things out that way, a couple of other patterns appear:

-- 5 of the 8 youngest players are African-Americans, as opposed to only 1 of the oldest 15.

-- 12 of the 18 oldest players are from either the Far West or New Jersey, as opposed to 0 of the youngest 5. This may suggest a broadening away from our traditional sources of talent.

Also, in case anyone is interested in a techie approach to projecting whether squad players will make it again next time ...
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339133


that's a regression?

Bruce S
18 Apr 2006, 09:19 AM
Nice post ... when you lay things out that way, a couple of other patterns appear:

-- 5 of the 8 youngest players are African-Americans, as opposed to only 1 of the oldest 15.

-- 12 of the 18 oldest players are from either the Far West or New Jersey, as opposed to 0 of the youngest 5. This may suggest a broadening away from our traditional sources of talent.

Also, in case anyone is interested in a techie approach to projecting whether squad players will make it again next time ...
http://www.bigsoccer.com/forum/showthread.php?t=339133
without meaning to pimp my own post, note the thread I just started about the broadening of youth super-teams in the USA.This is especially important in non-traditionbal geographies and with non-traditional ethnic groups like american born blacks.

Maximum Optimal
18 Apr 2006, 10:42 AM
-- 12 of the 18 oldest players are from either the Far West or New Jersey, as opposed to 0 of the youngest 5. This may suggest a broadening away from our traditional sources of talent.



But Convey is from a Joisey suburb, just across the little river. :D