Belarus Revolution?

[DoyleG]

Belarus' main opposition leader has urged his supporters to keep up daily protests against the election result, calling for a major rally on Saturday.
Alexander Milinkevich was addressing a few thousand protesters who had gathered in a Minsk square to complain of vote-rigging in Sunday's poll.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4830830.stm

Add to that, Lukashenko states he will break the neck of anyone that tries to overthrow him.

[nutbar]

Wouldn't count on a revolution. Belarusian nationalism is incredibly weak, might be the weakest national identity in Europe.

[Shaster]

The last place Russia tries to hold their ground. After Ukraine and Georgia, nobody left. Maybe Azerbaijan? Poor Russians.

[Revolt]

The last place Russia tries to hold their ground. After Ukraine and Georgia, nobody left. Maybe Azerbaijan? Poor Russians.

Umm, Chechnya.

[odessit19]

Actually, Russia still has much influence everywhere in former USSR, however what is happening in Belarus is just another "orange" revolution, as it occured in Ukraine and it is just a matter of time before Lukashenko steps down, either by his own will or by force.

[Shaster]

Actually, Russia still has much influence everywhere in former USSR, however what is happening in Belarus is just another "orange" revolution, as it occured in Ukraine and it is just a matter of time before Lukashenko steps down, either by his own will or by force.

Regarding Ukraine, it is like a 50-50 split with anti-Russian and pro-Russian. Sam Huntington in his Clash of Civilization uses Ukraine as the fault line of Othodox/Christian divide. Also Crimea is a big issue too. That is why Russia is so much with China vs. US/EU.

[nutbar]

Actually, Russia still has much influence everywhere in former USSR, however what is happening in Belarus is just another "orange" revolution, as it occured in Ukraine and it is just a matter of time before Lukashenko steps down, either by his own will or by force.

He may be a dictator, but I've heard large numbers of people, especially older people in Belarus like the guy.

And plus he identifies himself with the Soviet Union (or Slavic unity with Russia) versus Belarus nationalists, who really don't have a big base of support.

[odessit19]

He may be a dictator, but I've heard large numbers of people, especially older people in Belarus like the guy.

And plus he identifies himself with the Soviet Union (or Slavic unity with Russia) versus Belarus nationalists, who really don't have a big base of support.

You know, coming from there,I knew many people who were still in love with Stalin as well, so the fact that people have been brainwashed for so long is not a great indicator of true feelings. Russia is losing its grip on these former republics, hence Lukashenko almost represents the last strong grip of Russian empire.

[Shaster]

You know, coming from there,I knew many people who were still in love with Stalin as well, so the fact that people have been brainwashed for so long is not a great indicator of true feelings. Russia is losing its grip on these former republics, hence Lukashenko almost represents the last strong grip of Russian empire.

Also the line of religious/cultural divide is in West of Belarus. I am not too familiar with where exactly it is (unlike Ukraine, it is from West of Kiev/Cherkasy/Vinnytsia, and East of Chrnihiv/Poltava/Kirovohrad/Odessa). But maybe in Belarus case (who is de facto Russia now :p ), maybe West cuts a little too much into Russian's terretory?

[nicephoras]

You know, coming from there,I knew many people who were still in love with Stalin as well, so the fact that people have been brainwashed for so long is not a great indicator of true feelings.

Well..........it is, actually. Just because they're "brainwashed", doesn't mean they don't believe that.
Lukashenko is popular enough to win without the election fraud, which makes his over the top reaction against "dissidents" all the more embarassing to Putin.

[nutbar]

Also the line of religious/cultural divide is in West of Belarus. I am not too familiar with where exactly it is (unlike Ukraine, it is from West of Kiev/Cherkasy/Vinnytsia, and East of Chrnihiv/Poltava/Kirovohrad/Odessa). But maybe in Belarus case (who is de facto Russia now :p ), maybe West cuts a little too much into Russian's terretory?

Pretty much all of Belarus is Russia's 'territory'.

I think it is telling that the people who have caused most of the trouble for Lukashenko over the years is the Polish minority along the Polish border.

[DoyleG]

Crackdown has taken place.

Riot police in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, have broken up a five-day demonstration against the re-election of President Alexander Lukashenko.
More than 100 troops poured into the central square and loaded protesters onto waiting trucks.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4839780.stm

[nutbar]

This might shine some light on why Lukashenko remains popular in Belarus with a lot of people.

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alyaksandr_Lukashenka

A former state farm (sovkhoz) director, Lukashenko is widely credited in Belarus with restoring Belarus's shattered post-Soviet economy. A 2005 World Bank report judged that "economic growth in Belarus has been genuine and robust", and the benefits have been widely shared among the population. Under Lukashenko, official unemployment stands at less than 2 percent, poverty has fallen, and the average monthly income is higher than in many other former Soviet republics, including Ukraine (see [1]). This stands in stark contrast to, for instance, the devastating early effects of economic transformation in neighboring Russia, where life expectancy has dropped dramatically since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

[ViscaBarca]

This might shine some light on why Lukashenko remains popular in Belarus with a lot of people.

from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alyaksandr_Lukashenka

A former state farm (sovkhoz) director, Lukashenko is widely credited in Belarus with restoring Belarus's shattered post-Soviet economy. A 2005 World Bank report judged that "economic growth in Belarus has been genuine and robust", and the benefits have been widely shared among the population. Under Lukashenko, official unemployment stands at less than 2 percent, poverty has fallen, and the average monthly income is higher than in many other former Soviet republics, including Ukraine (see [1]). This stands in stark contrast to, for instance, the devastating early effects of economic transformation in neighboring Russia, where life expectancy has dropped dramatically since the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.
could that be because of his refusal to sell the economy off to western companies? the very reason the west started such a propaganda war against belarus in the first place. the west tries for years to pull off something like in the ukraine and put some easily buyable crooks into power, without much success. they must be really frustratet in washington and brussels.