World Cup Qualifying Could Begin Next Spring

[Sachin]

U.S. could be starting World Cup qualifying next spring (http://www.sportingnews.com/soccer/articles/20030205/455161.html)

It's an AP article, so it will run elsewhere

NEW YORK -- The United States could start qualifying for the 2006 World Cup next spring instead of next summer, according to proposals being considered by soccer's regional governing body.

The Confederation of North and Central American and Caribbean Football Associations is to consider expanding the qualifying schedule when its executive committee meets Friday in New York.

"We think it's unlikely we'll begin in the summer of 2004," U.S. coach Bruce Arena said Wednesday. "We think we'll begin a little earlier."


Start saving money!

Sachin

[speedcake]

This doesn't sound like the U.S.A. will have to play earlier. It just looks like we, as a region, could see a quarterfinals group stage which would have to take place, obviously, earlier in the spring. The same teams seeded in our current format will be seeded the same way and won't have to appear before the semi-final round.

[lynesjc]

I also posted this in the USA Men's forum:

http://www.concacaf.com/news/article.page/1202

Highlights:

- No more byes. Everyone plays in initial three team groups (one two team group).

- The initial groups are seeded.

- Semis and the Hexagonal are unchanged.

- Starts in Spring '04.

[keeppah]

Anyone have a listing of teams in the region? I'm just wondering who the "competition" would be in that first stage. In other words, what are the chances the US might actually get eliminated before the final stage of qualifying?

[Lanky134]

Trying to work out how this is done. According to the release, there are four pots.

A: US, CRC, MEX
B: HON, T&T, JAM
C: CAN, CUB, SLV, GUA, St. Vincent and The Grenadines, PAN
D: The other 23.

So it seems that the six teams in Pots A and B, plus 5 of the 6 Pot C teams, are drawn first. The 6th C team would, presumably, go into the first group (like we had Costa Rica in the semi-stage last time), while 21 of the 23 Pot D teams fill out the eleven groups. The 2 remaining Pot D teams play a home-and-away leg.

The 11 group winners and the home-and-away winner are then drawn into three groups of four, with the top two teams in each group going to the Hexagonal phase, with the top three teams qualifying, and the fourth team playing the 5th-placed Asian team.

While I doubt we'll have too much of a problem getting to the Hexagonals, this looks like a logistical nightmare waiting to happen.

[Adam Zebrowski]

USA began WCQ 2002 in July of 2000, visiting Central America for two road matches to start it all off...

remember the PK in Saprissa??

[kal-el]

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/headlinenews?id=257332&cc=5901

Looks like we'll have to play home-away series against two other teams before the semfinals now. While these won't be teams that made the semifinal round the last time around, that still seems a bit worrisome (especially if we were placed in the single two-team group; a 1-0 loss and a 0-0 tie and you're out). The pre-semifinal round could actually be more dangerous than the final round, in which four of the six teams will qualify or get a shot at qualifying.

[Adam Zebrowski]

http://www.geocities.com/Colosseum/Park/3802/CONCACAF/

that's CONCACAF, take out the top 11 CONCACAF sides, and we'll see a lot of 9-0 scores when the USA plays??

[Lanky134]

Using the format I speculated, even if we draw the 6th Pot C team, the worst we could do is have to play either GUA or CAN, neither of which scares me in a group phase. Our team has gained an incredible amount of confidence over the past year, and the others are rebuilding.

As for us in the 2-team format, I don't think that CONCACAF would put any team with a genuine chance to get to Germany in that position.

The other national associations in CONCACAF are: Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Aruba, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Dominica, Dominican Republic, French Guyana, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guyana, Haiti, Martinique, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, Saint Lucia, Saint-Martin, Saint-Maarten, St. Kitts and Nevis, Suriname, Turks and Caicos Islands, US Virgin Islands.

That's 28, so it would seem that 5 associations didn't register for qualifications..

[cmonaco]

Originally posted by Lanky134
Trying to work out how this is done. According to the release, there are four pots.

A: US, CRC, MEX
B: HON, T&T, JAM
C: CAN, CUB, SLV, GUA, HAI, PAN
D: The other 23.

So it seems that the six teams in Pots A and B, plus 5 of the 6 Pot C teams, are drawn first. The 6th C team would, presumably, go into the first group (like we had Costa Rica in the semi-stage last time), while 21 of the 23 Pot D teams fill out the eleven groups. The 2 remaining Pot D teams play a home-and-away leg.

The 11 group winners and the home-and-away winner are then drawn into three groups of four, with the top two teams in each group going to the Hexagonal phase, with the top three teams qualifying, and the fourth team playing the 5th-placed Asian team.

While I doubt we'll have too much of a problem getting to the Hexagonals, this looks like a logistical nightmare waiting to happen.

I think that all 12 teams in Pot A, B, and C are going to be seeded in their own first round group. Pot D teams will fill out all the groups. The two-team group will likely be left to chance (perhaps it will have to include a pot C team).

It may be a logistical nightmare but it does allow all nations to play at least 2 home qualifiers (other than the 2-team group). If CONCACAF really wanted to give the seeded first-round teams home field advantage, they could have the seeded team host the first-round round-robin (3 games instead of 6). That would also cut down on the games.

I like it. No more regional divisions will make for a fairer qualifying process for all regions.

[Lanky134]

Originally posted by cmonaco
I think that all 12 teams in Pot A, B, and C are going to be seeded in their own first round group. Pot D teams will fill out all the groups.

The release states that there are 11 groups of three teams. Therefore there will have to be one team from the first three pots left over.

[Mr Fish]

Originally posted by Lanky134
The release states that there are 11 groups of three teams. Therefore there will have to be one team from the first three pots left over.

I believe it says there'll be eleven groups of three teams and a single group of two teams.

[Scoey]

How is this more fair? If I'm Antigua, who would I rather play in my first round of qualifying: The Bahamas, or Mexico? Under the old system, I think the minnows had a better chance to get to the second round. Under this sytem, many of them are virtually assured a first round exit. I'm sure I'm just not looking at it right -- could someone enlighten me?

[Lanky134]

Originally posted by Mr Fish
I believe it says there'll be eleven groups of three teams and a single group of two teams.
That's correct. But I was referring to the handling of the teams from Pots A, B & C, neither of which I believe will be involved in the two-team group. Cmonaco thought that all 12 teams in the first three pots would be seeded, in which case there would be no need for three pots, actually. So maybe the 6th Pot C team will have to play the last Pot D team.

[Scoey]

Originally posted by Lanky134
That's correct. But I was referring to the handling of the teams from Pots A, B & C, neither of which I believe will be involved in the two-team group.

Why do you believe that? Under your scenario, there will be a two team group with two minnows. Meaning there is a guarantee that one minnow will be in the second round. Doesn't make sense (not that TFC knows much about sense).

[Lanky134]

It clears up a bit in today's SoccerAmericaDaily:

The new format requires all of the region's team to participate in the first round. For the USA, it means qualifying starts in spring in a three-team, home-and-home, round-robin group (four games per team). The U.S. opponents in the first round would be pulled from a pot comprising the region's 23 weakest teams.

...

Teams that USA will NOT face in the first round are: Costa Rica, Mexico, Honduras, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Canada, Cuba, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti and Panama.

So it would seem that, as I just corrected myself, the 6th Pot C team and the 23rd Pot D team will be the two-team group (since the US won't play any of the Pot A, B or C teams).

Also, SoccerAmericaDaily lists Haiti as being a Pot C team, while the CONCACAF release says St. Vincent & Grenadines (it did, though, originally say Haiti).

[Lanky134]

Originally posted by Scoey
Why do you believe that? Under your scenario, there will be a two team group with two minnows. Meaning there is a guarantee that one minnow will be in the second round. Doesn't make sense (not that TFC knows much about sense).
You're right. It doesn't make sense. But I thought TFC would try to make one group a bit tougher again, like they did in the semis for WC 2002, with four seeded teams for three groups.

[cmonaco]

Originally posted by Lanky134
That's correct. But I was referring to the handling of the teams from Pots A, B & C, neither of which I believe will be involved in the two-team group. Cmonaco thought that all 12 teams in the first three pots would be seeded, in which case there would be no need for three pots, actually. So maybe the 6th Pot C team will have to play the last Pot D team.

It will be a blind draw:

Pot A = 3 teams
Pot B = 3 teams
Pot C = 6 teams
Pot D = 24 teams

Each group (of the 12) will consist of 1 team from Pot A, B, or C; and 2 teams from pot D. (The 2-team group will only have 1 team from Pot D.) The only question is wheter there will be any restrictions on the 2-team group. My guess is that a Pot C and a Pot D team will be required to comprise the 2-team group.

Pot A, B, and C distinctions do not matter in the first round. They will matter in the semi-final round, where each group of 4 will have a maximum of 1 team each from Pots A and B. It's like a re-seeding.

As I posted in another thread on the CONCACAF board, the US could conceivably end up in a 4-team group with Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. However, the US will NOT play Mexico or Costa Rica until the final (hexagonal) round.

Why CONCACAF can't state this clearly is beyond me...

[obie]

Seems to me that if I'm Antigua or St Kitts, there are two advantages to this system vs. the old home-and-home vs. some other lousy Caribbean team:

1. The guarantee that you will have the ability to play a higher-flight team, thus in the long run improving your competitiveness. Playing Grenada every four years doesn't necessarily make you better.

2. The chance at a higher financial windfall that comes from an away match in Azteca, or Foxboro, or Saprissa, or wherever you have to play the "seeded" team.

Other than those, I can't imagine that these teams will actually enjoy getting pounded senseless by one of the big teams of the region.

[voros]

Originally posted by obie
Seems to me that if I'm Antigua or St Kitts, there are two advantages to this system vs. the old home-and-home vs. some other lousy Caribbean team:

1. The guarantee that you will have the ability to play a higher-flight team, thus in the long run improving your competitiveness. Playing Grenada every four years doesn't necessarily make you better.

2. The chance at a higher financial windfall that comes from an away match in Azteca, or Foxboro, or Saprissa, or wherever you have to play the "seeded" team.

Other than those, I can't imagine that these teams will actually enjoy getting pounded senseless by one of the big teams of the region.

Man this whole thing scares the bejeezus out of me. I'd rather play a pseudo-minnow (who want to beat us) than a minnow (where beating us would be result in a week long national celebration).