View Full Version : Big 4 or Hosts Theory
ExPatPrat
06 Feb 2006, 03:54 PM
Big 4 or hosts
Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.
Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.
5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.
This would suggest that only one of the Big 4 can win this summer.
Eric B
06 Feb 2006, 04:18 PM
This would suggest that only one of the Big 4 can win this summer.I think it's safe to say that no more than one of the big four could win this year. :)
Mr. Bee
06 Feb 2006, 04:24 PM
This would suggest that only one of the Big 4 can win this summer.
Just a shot in the dark, but a question for you.
If you flip a coin 10 times in a row and they all come up heads, what would you bet that it would come up on the 11th flip? Heads or tails?
IASocFan
06 Feb 2006, 04:33 PM
Big 4 or hosts
Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.
Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.
5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.
This would suggest that only one of the Big 4 can win this summer.
Minor point, you forgot 1950 when Uruguay beat one of the big 4 which was hosting the world cup at the time.
Before 98, France and Greece had never won a World Cup or a Euro championship.
Your big four are just a few of the better competitors, England, Netherlands, France and Spain have a good chance and the later two have a good group to prepare for - unlike Argentina and France from 02.
ExPatPrat
06 Feb 2006, 04:45 PM
There was no world cup final in 1950.
The Theory is for world cup 2006 only.
Minor point, you forgot 1950 when Uruguay beat one of the big 4 which was hosting the world cup at the time.
Before 98, France and Greece had never won a World Cup or a Euro championship.
Your big four are just a few of the better competitors, England, Netherlands, France and Spain have a good chance and the later two have a good group to prepare for - unlike Argentina and France from 02.
spoonman
07 Feb 2006, 08:11 AM
Minor point, you forgot 1950 when Uruguay beat one of the big 4 which was hosting the world cup at the time.
Before 98, France and Greece had never won a World Cup or a Euro championship.
Your big four are just a few of the better competitors, England, Netherlands, France and Spain have a good chance and the later two have a good group to prepare for - unlike Argentina and France from 02.
France won Euro 84 (at home)
Maczebus
07 Feb 2006, 11:45 AM
If you flip a coin 10 times in a row and they all come up heads, what would you bet that it would come up on the 11th flip? Heads or tails?
Depends if it's been weighted so that it'll come up heads.
In all seriousness, there are only a few countries outside of 'the big four' (a term that flatters Italy btw) that are in a realistic position of winning the thing.
The Japorean WC was a freak one due to a number of factors - and even that gave us a Brazil - Germany final. The one in Germany will be a much more 'run of the mill' affair giving much more 'run of the mill' results.
As far as I can see the thread was started on a premise of blinding obviousness. 1 of the 'big 4' will reach the final definitely, where they may very well play another of the 'big 4' but will certainly play one of the biggish 8 (England, Holland, Spain, France included) in the final.
No other teams have a hope.
It hasn't happened yet and there's little reason currently to suggest anything will change this time round.
AlbertCamus
07 Feb 2006, 01:57 PM
I'm not going to take 2 seconds and look it up, but I know Uraguay won the world cup when it was in Brazil. Brazil has never worn white since then.
Champagne Football
08 Feb 2006, 05:42 PM
I'm not going to take 2 seconds and look it up, but I know Uraguay won the world cup when it was in Brazil. Brazil has never worn white since then.
When ExPatPrat said there was no WC final in 1950, he wasn't saying that there was no WC, just that there was no "Final" held. There was a Final Pool instead with Brazil, Uruguay, Sweden and Spain. The deciding game between Brazil and Uruguay just happened to be the last game of the tournament. (Lucky for the organisers!:rolleyes: )
argentine soccer fan
08 Feb 2006, 06:02 PM
When ExPatPrat said there was no WC final in 1950, he wasn't saying that there was no WC, just that there was no "Final" held. There was a Final Pool instead with Brazil, Uruguay, Sweden and Spain. The deciding game between Brazil and Uruguay just happened to be the last game of the tournament. (Lucky for the organisers!:rolleyes: )
Exactly. Brazil went into the match against Uruguay in first place, and only needed a draw to become the champion. Uruguay was in second place, one point behind, so they needed to win. Uruguay won and became the champion. It wasn't a final, technically, but it worked out to be like a final.
Excape Goat
08 Feb 2006, 06:03 PM
Big 4 or hosts
Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.
Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.
5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.
This would suggest that only one of the Big 4 can win this summer.
You can also say that every single post-War final, except one, had germnay or Brazil in it. So one of them probably will play in it again. Only one South SAmerican country even won in Europe. Does it mean Germany will win the WC?
divinocodino1018
08 Feb 2006, 07:08 PM
In all seriousness, there are only a few countries outside of 'the big four' (a term that flatters Italy btw) that are in a realistic position of winning the thing.
Why wouldn't Italy be considered in the big four? If you take Italy out, you also take Argentina out.
divinocodino1018
08 Feb 2006, 07:25 PM
This may be of interest to some...
http://www.worldcup-soccer.info/
click on all-time ranking on the top
Sagy
08 Feb 2006, 08:34 PM
This may be of interest to some...
http://www.worldcup-soccer.info/
click on all-time ranking on the topThis seems to be the list before 2002. Planet World Cup (http://www.planetworldcup.com/NATIONS/maraton.html) has an updated list.
The "big 4" are still the same, but when it come to winning percentage, England (59%) and Argentina (59.17%) are almost tied.
AlbertCamus
08 Feb 2006, 11:42 PM
When ExPatPrat said there was no WC final in 1950, he wasn't saying that there was no WC, just that there was no "Final" held. There was a Final Pool instead with Brazil, Uruguay, Sweden and Spain. The deciding game between Brazil and Uruguay just happened to be the last game of the tournament. (Lucky for the organisers!:rolleyes: )
Ah ya bastards, you got me. I knew that too, but didn't think about it.