Big 4 or Hosts Theory

[ExPatPrat]

Big 4 or hosts

Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.

Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.

5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.

This suggests that only the Big 4 can possibly win 2006.

[Massimo_Oddo]

Big 4 or hosts

Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.

Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.

5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.

This suggests that only the Big 4 can possibly win 2006.

You used to be on 606 didnt you?

[ExPatPrat]

yes I did!!

Can no longer go on there as they close early in morning my time.
Are these boards good?

[Massimo_Oddo]

yes I did!!

Can no longer go on there as they close early in morning my time.
Are these boards good?

I used to go on there too, but i can't anymore because of uni/work. I was Marcelo_Salas and i remember reading your posts on the international board.

These forums are decent, BUT, they are definately not as busy as the 606 forums and there are a lot more Americans on here who are naturally biased. A lot of the threads with heavy discussion on these boards usually involve the USA national team.

[ExPatPrat]

we are trying to get as many people from 606 to join the espnsoccernet or maybe another forum as the BBC one is in its death throws.

[leg_breaker]

According to that theory, Argentina couldn't possibly have won in 1986 as before then they'd only won one world cup at home, like England and France currently have.

[ExPatPrat]

Of course Argentina could win in 1986, they are one of the big 4.

According to that theory, Argentina couldn't possibly have won in 1986 as before then they'd only won one world cup at home, like England and France currently have.

[deejay]

Of course Argentina could win in 1986, they are one of the big 4.

Although it sounds silly it really is true. Argentina had been the underachiever of the great soccer nations until '78 and '86.

With that type of thinking, Holland could be considered a candidate for the champions although they're so up and down in classification that one wonders.

[Gold is the Colour]

Hey there Expat. BBC never was at a good time for me, so I found this one. Espn is a bit slow sometimes. I do remember your "big 4" theory though, good luck getting agreement over here. Have you decided who your going for yet (US or Italy?)

[Sagy]

Big 4 or hosts

Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.

Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.

5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.

This suggests that only the Big 4 can possibly win 2006.This is a reasonable bet, but far from a sure one.

First let's examine the rest of the seeds odds of wining the WC
England best case is 6 to 1 (16.7%)
France, Spain and Mexico combined are 7 to 1 (14.3%)

Other significant threats:
Netherlands 12 to 1 (8.5%)
Portugal 20 to 1 (5%)
Czech Rep 25 to 1 (4%)

So we are at 48.5%. If the rest of the field is better than 66 to 1 then the big four are less than a 50-50 proposition.

Having said that, I have a hard time seeing the winner not being one of the big four, England or Netherlands. As a result I think that there is a high likelihood that your theory will survive this WC.

[Massimo_Oddo]

Why are Portugal such long shots?

[z187 Portugal]

Why are Portugal such long shots?

Probably b/c noone ever expects us to win (even if we have a strong team), but I dont care what odds we got as long as we do well.

[Massimo_Oddo]

Probably b/c noone ever expects us to win (even if we have a strong team), but I dont care what odds we got as long as we do well.

Cool. Just wondering, do Ricardo Quaresma or Simao start for you guys? Theyve both been playing pretty well this season. Also who are your 2 CM - before it was Costinha and Maniche, but do they still for the NT?

[z187 Portugal]

Cool. Just wondering, do Ricardo Quaresma or Simao start for you guys? Theyve both been playing pretty well this season. Also who are your 2 CM - before it was Costinha and Maniche, but do they still for the NT?

Nope, Ricardo Quaresma and Simao havent been starting, we tend to start with Figo and C Ronaldo. When Figo was on 'international break' it was Simao and C Ronaldo, but Figo is back now (and playing great with Inter).

Quaresma may not even be selected for the world cup, but most fans want him to be selected since he is having a great season , but he may not be selected so he can be left on the u21 team for european cup.

Most likely I would say in WC 2006 Figo and C.Ronaldo will start, Simao and Quaresma as substitutes.

Costinha, Maniche still start, but Petit (Benfica) has a good chance of taking Costinha's starting position. Other Portugal CM's are Tiago (O. Lyonnais) Joao Moutinho (Sporting) Manuel Fernandes (Benfica) ..

If you want to find out more about the Portuguese soccer, come to the Portugal forum, its very active lots of information on players, clubs, national team.

[Sagy]

Why are Portugal such long shots?
Mostly gut level, something along the lines of:

If Portugal doesn't beat Iran, there is a reasonable chance they will not advance to 2nd phase. While the odds of this are low, they are not negligible. Let's say 1 in 10 times Portugal fails to advance.
The second round opponent is likely to be Argentina or Netherlands. I have a high level of respect for both teams. So I put Portugal chances of advancing at 40%
In the quarter finals they are likely to face England (if they win the group) or Germany. Again, I give them a 40% chance of advancing.
If they make it to semi finals, let's put their odds at winning each game at 50/50

So their chances of winning are 0.9 * 0.4 * 0.4 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 0.036 = 3.6%
Let's say that I was a little too tough on them, so I give them a 1/3 bump - they are now at 4.8% which is close to 20 to 1.

If you have different numbers for Portugal's chances at the different phases, please post them. I would love to see what other (especially those more familiar with Portugal) think of their chances.

[z187 Portugal]

I understand the logic behind your calculations Sagy, we (Portugal) do have a hard route to the final if we qualify out of our group.

But if recent records are any indication (some ppl tend to take this into account), Holland and England should be wary of Portugal. (england hasnt defeated portugal in a offical match since 1966, and holland only beat us once in the early 90s and we beat them in euro 2004 and world cup 2002 qualifications). Yes England and Holland have strong teams now but Portugal imo is just as competitve as them overall.

Argentina is strong and theyve probably only played Portugal once or twice in history, and no recent meetings. So 50-40 chances in favour of argentina sound reasonable to me.

But im not complaining, I think a big reason why many ppl downplay Portugal's world cup chances is because nobody-- unless they remember 1966, has experienced Portugal make an impact in the World cup so they assume we will choke, or whatever (I dont blame them either). Hopefully 2006 we can get results that do justice to the proud tradition of Portuguese futebol.

[dor02]

Big 4 or hosts

Brazil, Germany, Italy & Argentina.

Every single world cup final has been won by one of these teams, apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.

5 of the last 6 world cup finals have been between 2 of the big 4.

This suggests that only the Big 4 can possibly win 2006.In 1950, Uruguay won, they weren't the hosts and as far as I can see, they aren't part of the Big Three.

[BenfromUSA]

yes I did!!

Can no longer go on there as they close early in morning my time.
Are these boards good?

hehe :p .... whats up buddy?

[The Beautiful Frame]

In 1950, Uruguay won, they weren't the hosts and as far as I can see, they aren't part of the Big Three.

That's right, but you have to read more closely. The OP said that every WC final has been won by one of the Big Four or the host. There was no WC final in 1950.

[janner]

apart from in 1930, 1966 & 1998 when the host nation beat one of the big 4.

In other words one of the big 4 lost!

Why not go the whole hog and post "your" big 6 version where you include the Dutch and the Czechs, both of which have never even won it.