Can we really make Europe? - AKA The Essay Thread. 10,000+ words required to post!

[Colm]

Our remaining fixtures are

Sunderland (A) 12/2
Wigan (H) 19/2
Blackburn (H) 5/3
Chelsea (A) 11/3
Birmingham (A) 18/3
West Brom (H) 27/3
Newcastle (A) 1/4
Man City (H) 8/4
Everton (A) 15/4
Man Utd (H) 17/4
Arsenal (A) 22/4
Bolton (H) 29/4
West Ham (A) 7/5

I was thinking it over and last year top 7 got Europe with Boro coming 7th and getting 55 points. Might not be top 7 this season. 5th and 6th last year got 58 points (Liverpool and Bolton) and if we only need 14 points from 13 games but it could we might need more points than 58

Our run in is very very hard, Newcastle, Man City, Everton, Man Utd, Arsenal, Bolton, West Ham are our last 7 games.

If we really want European football next season. We must not lose to teams like Sunderland and are going to have to beat one of the big teams. Our run in looks very very daunting, 10 of the last 13 games are against top 10 teams , Though if you ask me i'm more scared of the Sunderland game than the Chelsea game.

Anyone agree with me?

[PoshSpur]

Our Remaining Fixtures:

Current Points = 44
Sunderland (A) 12/2 WIN (47 Points)
Wigan (H) 19/2 WIN (50)
Blackburn (H) 5/3 WIN (53)
Chelsea (A) 11/3 LOSS (53)
Birmingham (A) 18/3 DRAW (54)
West Brom (H) 27/3 WIN (57)
Newcastle (A) 1/4 LOSS (57)
Man City (H) 8/4 WIN (60)
Everton (A) 15/4 LOSS (60)
Man Utd (H) 17/4 DRAW (61)
Arsenal (A) 22/4 LOSS (61)
Bolton (H) 29/4 DRAW (62)
West Ham (A) 7/5 WIN (65) - We need a win. But I feel so will they so as to get into the UEFA Cup. Difficult one to call.

I predict us getting between 62-65 points by the end of the season.

Arsenals Remaining Fixtures

Current Points = 40
Bolton Wanderers (H) 11/2 DRAW (41)
Liverpool (A) 14/2 LOSS (41)
Blackburn Rovers (A) 25/2 LOSS (41)
Fulham (A) 4/3 WIN (44)
Liverpool (H) 12/3 LOSS (44)
Charlton Athletic (H) 18/3 WIN (47)
Portsmouth (A) 25/3 DRAW (48)
Aston Villa (H) 1/4 WIN (51)
Manchester United (A) 9/4 LOSS (51)
West Bromwich Albion (H) 15/4 WIN (54)
Manchester City (A) 17/4 DRAW (55)
Tottenham Hotspur (H) 22/4 WIN (58)
Sunderland (A) 29/4 WIN (61)
Wigan Athletic (H) 7/5 WIN (64)

I predict Arsenal to finish on between 62-64 points. Goodness me it's going to be close.

I personally feel that we have well and truly gotten over our blip. We need to have a massive next 4 weeks.

We can do it with the squad we have. I hope Martin has printed the same list and displayed it to the players in the theory meetings they have.

[tapper]

In a way...because we ought to beat Sunderland, but Chelsea = no points for anybody. Any point you get at the Bridge is a bonus, just like every point you drop to Sunderland hangs around your neck. Basically, nothing to lose at Chelsea, everything to lose at Sunderland, and therefore the Sunderland game bothers me more.

To get a top spot on the table, we have to play like a top side. That's the way it should be. If Spurs can finish in Europe, they will have proven their mettle against that run in.

You have to look at Sunderland, Wigan, City, Birmingham, and West Brom as the places most likely to produce points. We get our nearest competitors for top 6 at the lane (Bolton, Rovers, Wigan)...if we're a top side, then we should be able to get results at home.

I disagree a bit with which games will get which results with Posh...but ultimately, I come up with the same region of point totals. That late season NLD and the games against Bolton and West Ham could be massive.

But just look at some of the scenarios from his predictions. Five games from the end, 9 points ahead of Arsenal. Then 4 straight without a win for Tottenham. One surprise result like a draw at Highbury, or a win at home vs. United or Bolton, or on the road at Everton...none of which are out of the question...and that could be the race.

Every result is so crucial, but I'm keeping the faith.

[PoshSpur]

I agree Tapper. Of course my predictions won't all come true, but at the end of the day, it's the final points tally that we should be interested in.

I strongly believe that if we can finish the season on 65 points, then we will finish 4th and gain a Champions League position above Arsenal whom I feel will finish with 64 points.

It may even come down to goal difference you know. If we didn't qualify for the Champions League because Arsenal scored more goals than us, then that would hurt me terribly.

[Joe_Sanchez]

I think we'll need at least 65 points. Arsenal will come back and will definitely take more than 1 point from their next 3 games. It is optimistic to say they'll lose twice to Liverpool and lose to Blackburn, draw with Portsmouth etc. But who knows? The run in is very hard and we're playing teams who all have European qualification to play for.

Great win against Charlton and we need to go on a run. Winning the next 3 before Chelsea would be ideal. And Chelsea might not be at their strongest around the Barca CL legs. Can't help looking at that trip to Highbury - that may well decide it.

[PoshSpur]

As I said, I do think that we have surpassed our drop in form. That my friends, was Tottenham Hotspur's season blip (hopefully).

[Spur_Forever]

Though if you ask me i'm more scared of the Sunderland game than the Chelsea game. Anyone agree with me?
Absolutely not. As much as Chelscum are assured of winning the title, Sunderland are assured of being relegated. If you're insinuating that Sunderland will fight until the end, while Chelsea will not, I can assure you that will not be the case. There's a reason why Sunderland are bottom of the table: they are CR@P. The only way we can drop points on this one is by shooting ourselves in the foot. I'm not saying it can't happen, but if we play at our best there is no question we'll walk away with a convincing win. Playing our best at Chelsea we can hopefully salvage a draw. Plus, if we're scared of a game against Sunderland what will we do in Europe?

[Spur_Forever]

I agree Tapper. Of course my predictions won't all come true, but at the end of the day, it's the final points tally that we should be interested in.
I agree that we will finish somewhere in the 60-65 points range. But the Scum and Bolton will give us a run for our money in terms of that last Champs league spot. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes all the way till the last game. Which is tough, since our buddies from the East will not hand us an easy game...

In terms of the predictions, I think we'll have a tougher time against Blackburn and Wigan than we will against Birmingham (even though we're playing them away). Yes they'll be fighting for their lives, but if we impose our game on them, they will not have the quality to respond. Blackburn, on the other hand really scare me. I don't like their physical style of play and they beat ManU recently (even though they were a bit lucky).

I agree that Everton away will be tough, as that is another in-form team. But I hope we can get at least a draw at the Library. The Ar5e were lucky to get a draw at WHL, and granted they were without Henry, but we have gelled considerably as a team since then...

I also feel like if we can ever get a result at Newcastle, then this is this is the time we'll do it.

[tapper]

Here's another way of looking at it...

If we can get the full points from the games where we ought to (Sunderland, Wigan, City, Birmingham, West Brom) and certainly we would be favored to do so in those games, that leaves us on 59 points. What we would need then to give us a very strong chance is 2 results other than that which would be not be so expected.

Still, to be a top side, we have to play like a top side. We have to win big games against top opposition. I'm staring at Blackburn, Bolton, and man Utd...because I think we can beat anybody on our home field. And we have to impose ourselves on the fixtures where we are expected to win and grind out results.

We're not 4th place out of luck, and that's what a Champions League side should do to close out a season...play their best football.

[Danners9]

I think it'd be a travesty if we miss out having been top 3-5 all season long and hardly losing.

What worries me though is games in hand for other teams, Liverpool have a load and i think it's Bolton or Wigan that do too.. and of course Arsenal.

Interestingly though, Liverpool have played as many games already as we will all season! So perhaps the games in hand won't matter.

I doubt i'll be in England this time next year so i will have to watch the games on tv somewhere :)

[THFC1]

Just for Colm to be thinking of europe shows how far we have come :D

[tapper]

I think it'd be a travesty if we miss out having been top 3-5 all season long and hardly losing.

What worries me though is games in hand for other teams, Liverpool have a load and i think it's Bolton or Wigan that do too.. and of course Arsenal.

Interestingly though, Liverpool have played as many games already as we will all season! So perhaps the games in hand won't matter.

I doubt i'll be in England this time next year so i will have to watch the games on tv somewhere :)

I'm not so worried about Liverpool. I think they'll be top 4 for sure.

Arsenal have 1 game in hand, 4 points back. Bolton have 2 games in hand 6 points back. Rovers have 1 game in hand 7 points back.

We're on even terms with everybody else in terms of games played until 13th place Charlton...who would interestingly only be 8 points back if they won their two games in hand. Also, in the race for a thread on the Newcastle board...they also have a game in hand...a threatening 15 points back. :)

I do think that 4-7 on the table will include Tottenham, Arsenal, Bolton, and Blackburn. The order matters very much, so I've got my eye on Arsenal as competition for 4th, and Blackburn for 6th. I think Bolton will wind up in the Uefa cup again, and I still think Wigan will fade because, well, they've been fading back for a while now...and West Ham should put a fight up for 6th or 7th position. Everton is streaking up the table as well.

If Arsenal finish ahead of us on goals scored, I'm burning The Riverside to the ground.

[PoshSpur]

I think it'd be a travesty if we miss out having been top 3-5 all season long and hardly losing.

What worries me though is games in hand for other teams, Liverpool have a load and i think it's Bolton or Wigan that do too.. and of course Arsenal.

Interestingly though, Liverpool have played as many games already as we will all season! So perhaps the games in hand won't matter.

I doubt i'll be in England this time next year so i will have to watch the games on tv somewhere :)



......games in hand mean nothing if the team playing them loses.

[Danners9]

But it's the "if" i don't like. I'd rather they had already lost :)

[PoshSpur]

But they may have won the already also. My point is that games in hand mean nada.

[Danners9]

Mine is that i assume they will win and if they lose it's a surprise.

I count the points as if they are already there. So we need to make sure we win games and that others drop.

I don't want it to come down to the last day at West Ham.

[PoshSpur]

I think it will though Daniel.

[SpursGlory]

One problem is Bolton has 2 games in hand at the moment. 2 wins and they pull level with us so it goes to goal difference. They will have just as difficult a run as we do... with Man U, Chelsea and Liverpool in a row. After that (except for the game with Spurs) they probably have the easiest finish though with West Brom, Charlton and Birmingham. Our last 4-5 games is not an admirable fixture list.

Arse has a tough run coming up with Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn. They have Liverpool again and Man U amongst some 3 pointers like Villa, Charlton and WBrom. The only easy game for Arse in the last 4 though will be Sunderland.

I don't think Wigan is a team fading just yet... a 1-1 draw with Bolton works for us (maybe that Ziegler loan is a stroke of genius, his freekick set up the goal!). They're still flying high with a League Cup Final and still have a shot at 4th and the CL... maybe their bubble will deflate or they'll take that UEFA spot for granted we'll see.

I think our best hope lies in teams like Arse, Bolton, Wigan, Blackburn, West Ham and Man City cancelling each other out with draws... provided we pick up 3 points when this happens. Doable yes, will it be easy? Is anything easy with Spurs? :D

[jimi hendrix]

em........... i think we'll make europe :)

[Colm]

Just for Colm to be thinking of europe shows how far we have come :D :p:)